저자: VisceralAce · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 마이클 버리의 약세 주장에 반대하며 주식 저점 신호가 나타나고 있어 하락장에서도 매수를 지속해야 한다고 본다. 버리의 발언 해석: 채권과 주식이 동시에 40년 만에 이렇게 크게 하락한 환경은 과거 반등 시기와 유사해 강세 신호로 해석한다. 2022년 7월 주식 비중은 2009년 4월 이후 가장 낮고, 2020년 5월과 유사한 희귀 상황이라고 설명한다. 투심 및 시장 바닥 근거: 주식 시장의 항복(capitulation) 신호가 나타났고, 개인 투자자 다수가 약세에 베팅하고 있어 역발상 매수가 유효하다고 본다. 리스크 선호도는 급격히 낮아졌다. 바이오 섹터 신호: XBI(바이오 ETF)는 2022년 5월 중순 저점을 형성했고, 2021년 2월에 S&P500보다 먼저 고점을 찍었다. S&P500이 6월 하락 후 최근 1.5주간 반등하면서 강세 신호로 본다. 저점을 재방문하지 않으면 시장이 바닥 국면일 가능성이 크다고 전망한다. 거래량 및 실적 반영: 현재 거래량이 과거보다 크게 많고, 나쁜 실적 전망이 주가에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 본다. 트위터·스냅챗 등의 부진한 실적에도 주식 시장 하락폭은 크지 않았다. 경기침체 전망: 현재 경제는 2001년, 2008년보다 훨씬 양호하다고 보며, 2008년형 대침체 가능성은 낮다고 판단한다. 채용 둔화는 있지만 2021년 대비 성장은 여전하다고 본다. 소비 및 연준: 소비지출(GDP의 핵심)이 견조하고, 아멕스 신용카드 거래량 증가와 비자 전망을 근거로 든다. 2023년 경기 둔화 시 연준이 금리를 인하할 가능성이 있어 주식에 우호적이라고 본다. 주가 위치: S&P500은 2001년·2008년 고점 대비 붕괴 과정의 중간쯤이라고 비교하며, 최악의 경우 추가로 20% 하락해도 매수가 낫다고 주장한다. 매수 전략: 바닥을 예측하기보다 분할 매수를 권장하며, 관망하는 투자자는 결국 시장에 진입하지 못한다고 말한다. 단기 고통은 있으나 장기 매수 관점을 유지한다. 리스크: 단기 추가 하락 가능성, 인플레이션 피크 여부 불확실, 소비 둔화 시 침체 확대 가능성은 발표에서 간단히만 언급된다.
다듬은 글
is Michael Berry actually correct about this massive stock market bubble that he expects to continue to pop throughout the rest of 2022 even though we're starting to see inflation Peak a little bit you guys might have seen a lot of tweets from Michael burry over the past year or so where he's called out this massive bubble in stocks like AMC GameStop and also some of the growth stocks that I personally invest in like Nikola Motors plug power coinbase and so forth and although the NASDAQ being down 30 percent definitely validates a lot of his arguments we still don't know if he thinks there's more downside from these levels right now or if he thinks the bottom is close to in so that's exactly what I want to discuss in this video by actually breaking down one of his tweets but before we get entered guys make sure to drop me a thumbs up and hit that subscribe button if you haven't already so first of all let's start off with that tweet to understand what he actually means as you can see right now he's essentially saying that we haven't seen this kind of environment where bonds and stocks have sold off aggressively in four decades now I'm not sure if he's implying that this is a bullish thing or if this is a bearish thing but for me this is a bullish thing and a simple reason for that is as you can see every single time Bonds were a majority overweighted in a lot of the ETFs we trade the market always happen to enjoy some good rallies in the future we saw that happen in March 2020 we also saw that happen at the end of 2008 right after the GFC bottomed in addition bury is also mentioning that Equity allocation versus bonds is right now in July 2022 the lowest since we've seen in April of 2009.
we also saw that in May of 2020 and as you can clearly see this is a very rare occurrence so if you're any form of a long-term investor whether it be bonds stocks or even something like crypto you want to take note because this is a sign that we are seeing capitulate Nation already take place in this market even though a lot of retail investors out there want the market to keep going down and think there's much more downside left and that every single rally that we've seen is simply a sucker's rally and this is a big reason why I've continued to buy stocks in this kind of environment now it's very difficult for us to predict whether or not the Market's going to go up in the short term but as you can see clearly risk levels in this environment have collapsed and as we all know growth stocks always tend to lead the rally and the bottom growth stocks tend to be the first ones to sell off in an inflationary period And it tends to be the first ones to also recover during an inflationary period And if you guys remember I said this two weeks ago and my theory has so far proven to be correct which is the fact that if you look at the xbi biotech UTF this thing has already bottomed since the middle of May right the S P 500 sold off in June and now we're starting to see the S P 500 also start to Rally over the past one and a half weeks and as you can see xbi peaked in Feb of 2021 way before the S P 500 and now that this index is rallying after a year-long bear Market for me this is a bullish signal and as long as this thing holds up and doesn't revisit the lows then chances are this Market is in a bottoming phase and the difference between something like this and what we're experiencing today is as you can see the volume is significantly higher and overall a lot of the sentiment about poor earnings clearly is getting priced into the stock market we start Twitter and Snapchat post extremely poor earnings but the stock market really didn't go down that much now yes we saw a pullback on Friday but regardless we haven't seen any sort of mass capitulation event where a lot of other stocks are down 10 on average instead yes so we are still seeing a lot of fears about this recession happening and people slowing down on hiring but the reality is that we are still expecting growth over 2021.
the only thing we're expecting to see is slowing down in that growth and that is not something you see in a recession so if we're really going to go into a 2008 kind of recession we need the economic situation to be significantly worse than it is right now if tech workers in San Francisco are staying at home this means they have control over their wages this means that the labor market is still hot now whether or not this drives inflation I don't know clearly inflation's already starting to Peak because it's mostly driven by oil but if people like that are still having the power over their wages then we are nowhere in this type of recession where the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ collapse another 50 from here like we saw in 2008 as a matter of fact in 2008 we saw a lot of nice rallies but the reality is that it took a significantly longer amount of time for each sell-off and the aggressive selling off we've seen in the NASDAQ so far in 2022 is actually very fast it's a faster rate of selling than we have seen in 2008 and 2008 is obviously something where we start the economy collapse and we saw deflation not inflation and deflation is something the FED does not want to happen and so even if we go into an economic slowdown in 2023 chances are the FED might actually cut rates which obviously is good for stocks and the other thing that scared a lot of people which is Big Tech Cutting Company forecasts and whatnot is something the market has clearly already priced in at least a little bit because obviously the market is down 30 percent the market is forward-looking and we now know that we are looking into the third and fourth quarter of 2022 to see how earnings for those companies will come out at that time and we're not so much worried about what the market will do in the next month or so and most importantly many people tend to forget the fact that the biggest component of GDP is consumer spending and we are not seeing any form of growth or slowdown in that as we saw from American Express's recent earnings report where their credit card volume actually went up and we're expecting a similar outlook for something like a Visa which obviously accounts for over 52 percent of all credit card transactions all over the world and if the consumer is staying strong then we're not going to go into a significantly deep recession which in my opinion the stock market is probably not pricing in right now and funnily enough if you overlay the chart of the S P 500 today from 2001 and 2008 we're roughly halfway there for a peak collapse in the market and the reality is the situation right now from an economy standpoint is significantly better than both 2001 and 2008.
so you tell me do you want to buy into a market like this even if in the worst case scenario let's say we have another 20 to go down I would much rather be a buyer because there is no way we will know which rally is not a fake rally there's no way we're going to predict the bottom and for those that are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for the market to go lower they will never end up investing in the stock market because they will never have their Peak Fair moment because they'll continue to see the market continuing to go even and even lower but anyways guys this is my take on what Michael Murray said let me know down in the comment section below whether or not you agree with Michael Murray and this take that we're starting to see an inflection point in inflation and you want to be potentially taken advantage of some of the prices we're seeing in the market even though yes in the short term it is a painful environment to invest in stocks again for me I always like to be against where most of the retail investment crowd is positioned and as of right now I'm seeing most people bearish and that is exactly why I continue to buy and buy and buy but as usual guys make sure to drop me a thumbs up and I'll catch you guys in the next one take care
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