저자: Brian및Dan·Chris패널 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 코인베이스는 2022년 암호화폐 약세 속에서도 이자수익(USDC 준비금) 성장으로 단기 실적 악화가 과장돼 있으며 장기 가치는 과소평가됐다는 주장. 거래 수익은 2022년 3분기 약 3억 6500만 달러로 2분기 6억 5500만 달러 대비 크게 감소했고, 구독·서비스 수익은 약 2억 1000만 달러로 증가했다. 이자수익은 전분기 대비 300% 이상 증가했다. 비트코인은 2022년 60~70% 하락했고 거래 수익은 암호화폐 심리에 연동되므로 코인베이스 투자는 결국 암호화폐 장기 회복에 베팅하는 것이라는 설명. 발표자는 장기적으로 비트코인과 거래 수익 회복을 예상. 코인베이스는 서클(Circle)과 50:50 합작으로 USDC를 운영하며 이자수익 증가의 원인이다. 서클의 이자수익은 2022년 7백만→8,100만 달러로 증가했고, 2023년 약 400% 추가 성장 가능성이 제시됨. 금리 상승 환경에서 수익원이 다변화된다고 봄. 2023년 이자수익이 약 10억 달러에 이를 경우 이자사업만으로 70~80억 달러 가치가 된다는 추정. 당시 시가총액은 약 86~95억 달러 수준으로 언급됨. 2024년 반감기 이후 장기 상승 기대(3~5년 관점). 패널 토론: Brian은 암호화폐가 사라지지 않으며 코인베이스가 살아남을 것으로 낙관. Dan은 3분기 매출 5억 9천만 달러 대비 비용 12억 달러, 레버리지 부담, 소매 투자자 이탈을 이유로 전망이 어둡다고 비관하며 독립 상장 유지도 확신하지 못함. Chris는 조정 EBITDA 손실 축소(약 1억 5천만 달러)와 이자수익 상승을 근거로 낙관하며, 해외 거래소 붕괴로 코인베이스 점유율 상승을 예상. 이자수익은 은행이 아닌 코인베이스가 얻을 이유가 없다는 Dan의 반박도 있었음. 리스크: 암호화폐 약세 지속, 소매 투자자 이탈, 과도한 현금 소진, 레버리지, 이자수익 의존 및 금리 변동성.
다듬은 글
coinbase is performing much better than you think despite the destruction in transaction revenue for this company in 2022 the business has been building a very strong Foundation of subscription and interest Revenue that is being completely overlooked by Wall Street yeah it's been a tough year for crypto and companies like coinbase FDX has gone bankrupt so has blocked by Celsius and so many other firms and many people trusted and thought could be the next big crypto broker but now that people are realizing that most offshore brokers in the crypto space are a complete scam onshore businesses like coinbase that have built a record of trust are becoming the Forefront of the crypto industry so how exactly can coinbase's interest income grow in 2023 and how will it affect coinbase's fundamentals that's exactly what I'm going to discuss in this video but as usual guys before we get into it make sure to drop me a thumbs up and hit that subscribe button if you haven't already so to start things off let's look at coinbase's income statement breakdown to try to understand how their transaction Revenue has fared against your subscription and services Revenue as you can see in the third quarter of 2022 their total subscription Revenue aimed at around 210 million dollars up from around 147 in the prior quarter whereas their transaction Revenue went to around 365 down obviously significantly from 655 in the second quarter and the key thing I want you guys to keep in mind is this category right here which is interest income this grew over 300 percent quarter over quarter meanwhile Bitcoin is down yet another 30 percent in that same time and so what exactly is the value in having that kind of Divergence well as you all know the simple reason why coinbase has been underperforming is because Bitcoin is down 60 to 70 percent in 2022.
and Bitcoin obviously derives sentiment in the entire crypto space which ends up driving transaction revenue and the amount of users that you use the coinbase platform and I've said this multiple times if you want to invest in coinbase you have to believe in the broader crypto space and that is exactly what I'm doing here I'm taking a bet on cryptocurrencies recovering in the long term like they've always done in previous bear markets but now in the intermediate term for the next 12 to 18 months it looks like coinbase is developing a revenue stream that is completely isolated from whatever is happening in the broader crypto space and because Wall Street obviously likes to see financials in the short term to base their buy and sell decisions this information is going to be critically important for all investors you see coinbase is partnered in a 50 50 joint venture with a company called Circle to support the usdc stablecoin and this is the entire reason why the companies interest income has been going up for the past 12 months all the criticism against crypto which is the volatility and the lack of backing by a traditional Financial metric is completely resolved with the usdc because this ecosystem is completely backed one-to-one with the US dollar and guess what because interests have gone up so much in 2022 coinbase and circle are both gaining more and more interest on every single usdc that they store and because all these assets are typically invested in U.S backed treasuries they're exposed to the interest rate fluctuations that the Federal Reserve is enforcing and as a result coinbase and circle are both seeing record revenue from interest income circles revenue from interest income has actually grown from 7 million to 81 million dollars year over year in 2022 which is obviously much more than the interest rate from the FED has gone up which tells us that usdc adoption itself is all also driving this growth in income and so what exactly does this tell us both coinbase and circle have income streams that are dependent on the value and strength of the US dollar which itself is dependent on the value of the federal fund rate and so in an environment where interest rates are going up and inflation is coming down which is what the FED wants to do coinbase has a backing and a safety net for a revenue stream which is starting to overtake its transaction-driven streams and that is obviously huge because the biggest criticism against coinbase is its lack of diversification of Revenue and its Supreme dependence on the value and price of Bitcoin in the long term I think Bitcoin will recover and coinbase's transaction Revenue should also recover but in the short term which is what Wall Street mostly cares about it seems like coinbase's interest income is gonna Skyrocket next year Circle as a matter of fact is expecting its 2022 total income to grow from 28 million to 4 438 million dollars and that in 2023 that could jump another 400 percent based on usdc income and obviously because the M2 money supply tends to run inverse to interest rates in both environments coinbase has a metric to grow revenues even if their total revenues are declining which obviously is not a surprise because in most of their revenue right now comes from transactions but now that their revenue is being Diversified in the next 12 months the transaction and subscription Revenue could become equal footing in their total pie and as a result regardless of where the economy goes whether that be a tightening phase or an expansionary phase coinbase can still find ways to grow Revenue in both environments and that right there is exactly why coinbase's financials and fundamentals are not as bad as Wall Street is making it out yes in the short term they're burning cash like crazy their profit margins are in the negative but that is not a surprise when you you account for the fact that the entire crypto Market is on seventy percent and the second biggest broker in the world just went bankrupt and don't forget coinbase has been through these crypto bear Cycles four times over the past 10 years throughout the existence of Bitcoin and they've faced a much higher volatility back in 2017 and 2014 than we're seeing here today in 2022 and as a matter of fact coinbase has already cut a lot of their operating expenses in the third quarter of 2022.
down from around 1.8 billion dollars to 1.1 billion dollars which is obviously trending in the right direction and as we all know the revenue is mostly out of coinbases control because it is driven by interest rates and what the FED is doing instead we should be looking at what the company can do itself which is exactly where the business is excelling better than many people think and for transparency purposes to reinforce investor confidence they recently added customer assets onto the their short-term Investments category on the balance sheet and that is obviously also being offset by liabilities in the short term on the other side of the sheet and as you can see right now the company does not have an immediate liquidity crunch crisis because they have around 107 billion dollars in current assets and around 102 billion dollars in current liabilities and on top of that coinbase is growing cash at a faster rate than their growing debt which is obviously very rare to find in a business as volatile as crypto and when you realize that coinbase has around 5.6 billion dollars in cash on its balance sheet and is trading at a market cap of only around 9.5 billion dollars as of the filming of this video you realize that a lot of the Innovation and business development that it's taking place behind the scenes is being completely overlooked by most investors because guess what if you assume the same growth rate that Circle provided for its usdc interest income in 2023 of around 400 sent and add that to what coinbase experience in 2022 you could get an income stream of around 1 billion dollars solely from interest in 2023 which would obviously value coinbase's interest business itself north of seven to eight billion dollars because most software companies that earn interest trade at very high multiples because it's a very high margin business and so with coinbase's current market cap of 8.6 billion dollars you would essentially be getting all those other businesses that coinbase does which is transactions Revenue brokerage cold wallets all for free and if you pair that with the fact that the next Bitcoin having event in 2024 is expected to be extremely bullish for the entire crypto industry as it historically has since the Inception of Bitcoin you can start to see why the long-term bold case for the next three to five years for coinbase is starting to improve drastically but obviously you don't need to just take my word for it let's listen to one one of wall Street's own investors who is optimistic about coinbase's future even though in the short term the Outlook looks very poor it's Brian thank you for having me on um so uh there will be winners this is uh I think the darkest before Dawn type of stuff makes a lot of sense it's a very stressful time for the industry we have probably more shoes to drop but we believe that coinbase given its uh sure admission the way it all companies have been run for the last decade is going to avert the disasters that are following any of its competitors and come out a winner over the long run crypto's not going away this is another setback for sure but uh we still believe in the long-term value of what blockchain technology can do for financial services and Dan you're not a complete hater right you've got you've got a hold it's not like it's a supercell rating so what's your take on coinbase and its prospects right now I think the prospects are pretty Grim I mean all you have to do is read the 10q in the third quarter they made 590 million in revenue and 1.2 billion dollars of expenses with you know over 2 billion three billion dollars of of Leverage they're burning cash I mean this thing doesn't look good investors retail investors are fleeing crypto they're not coming back I don't know what's to like about this one well Chris how would you respond um profitability is improving I think the the Gap numbers can be a little bit distorted sometimes and adjusted ebitda they're down to about 150 million dollar loss in the third quarter it came in actually better than expected the interest income ramping up has been a nice offset so the trading volume pressers I think interest income is sort of an unknown wrinkle when it comes to to coinbase's store they have a significant interest in circles so with rates going up we see a big Tailwind from interest income that'll dilute the the Reliance on trading volume and um you know I certainly agree that retail investors will be pulling back but I've been following the space for a long time and we thought they'd gone away forever in 18 and they came back bigger than ever last year probably too big in some ways so I don't think this is necessarily going away and coinbase is built to survive Dan do you think it will survive in five years will there be a coinbase as as an independent stock it there's a percent chance which is not zero that that's not going to happen and and I want to say something about interest income if you want interest income own a bank not coinbase the reason you're getting they're getting interest income is because they're not paying people's deposits on U.S uh U.S stable coin as much as they should be getting so if you want something with interest income go on so far much better plan interest income you don't own coinbase for interest income that's not the right way to at least according to my view that's not not the right way to think about it Chris uh totally disagree I think it's a nice uh you know sort of added Revenue stream people aren't putting their money on coinbase for an interest income um I'd rather be exposed to coinbase here than could be a consumer lender like soapai uh given the coming stress uh to lenders given what's found inflation in the economy so um you know everything has uh its angle and you know coinbase obviously it's not a bank it's going to be the leading trading platform what's happened in the world in the last couple weeks is we've learned that putting your crypto in an offshore exchange is not regular is a bad idea so expect coinbase to gain significant market share as the Fallout continues uh well listen it's a very highly debated stock some some passionate and good arguments on both sides Dan and Chris appreciate it both gentlemen have a Happy Thanksgiving thank
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