저자: Kevin · 외국인
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암호화폐 급락의 원인으로 활성 지갑 감소, 선물 거래량·미결제약정 감소, 콜드월렛→거래소 대규모 이체, 연준 긴축 우려에 따른 나스닥 등 기술주 동반 하락, 청산 증가를 제시. 과거 연준 긴축 우려는 비트코인 하락 요인이고 저인플레이션·완화는 상승 요인이라고 설명. 기술적으로 BTC 45.7K 이탈 시 37.6K, 하단 32.6K·29.2K 지지선을 언급하고 ETH 35 이탈 시 25 가능성을 제시.
다듬은 글
ah hey everyone don't mind me we gotta talk about the uh crypto crash that's going on there's a lot of stuff going on over there and uh in here as well but uh we gotta talk because there's a lot that's happening okay here's the first thing that we know active wallets folks active wallets one of the problems that we're having right now in bitcoin is active wallets which is uh one one of the measures that we can use to gauge trading activity has stalled we hit 1.2 million actively trading wallets uh about a year ago today now we're down to 971 thousand this means we're down uh just roughly 20 now because of this there are some suggestions that we could set up a liquidity squeeze that might cause something very similar to the december flash crash that we saw which we've been seeing bitcoin fall pretty substantially today let's go ahead and look at the chart and then look at some of the other reasons for a fall that we have because we've got four really big ones the first one though without a doubt the plummeting in active wallets and the amount of active accounts actually buying the dip so in december we had this substantial kind of flash crash right here flash crash is really defined as a sudden sell-off generally driven by liquidations that's what we had on about december 3rd that was a pretty bloody friday in the stock market and the way weeble kind of shows the 24-hour here it always seems to show it the date about a day later uh but that might be because they're using gmt time but anyway what's important here is that yes some form of liquidated flash crash and then recovery which we were covered within that same day i mean we fell down to 42 383 and then within the same day ended up closing at 49 800.
it's a pretty substantial difference there we were still down 9.25 that day but certainly nowhere near as far down as we were intraday and there are concerns now that we could see that same sort of wicking happening uh over the next few days to a few weeks and part of the reason for that is if crypto continues to trend down whether that's because of its correlation to the nasdaq or some of the other reasons that we're going to talk about in this video it doesn't help when you have a less actively trading wallets now sometimes that's because people are taking their cryptocurrency out of hot wallets or brokerage accounts and they're putting them into cold storage which means they're not being actively traded which can sometimes be good if more crypto is being locked up is essentially a store of value than potentially you have less selling pressure but unfortunately the opposite is actually happening right now at the same time as having less overall traders and so that's another issue that we face right now so number one issue is a decline in active wallets number two is a record transfer of cryptocurrencies specifically bitcoin from cold storage to brokerage accounts we're seeing a large transfer so this should imply more trading but so far it seems to be materializing as selling pressure uh at least based on the current price activity now another issue that we're facing is reduced of volumes and open interest in futures trading now some of this could have to do with the same reasons in terms of us seeing fewer trading accounts in crypto but according to the chicago mercantile exchange we are down from an all-time high of 17.4 billion dollars of crypto futures trading actually i'm sorry bitcoin futures trading just bitcoin 17.4 billion dollars of bitcoin futures trading in october which is just two and a half months ago and we are down to 10.6 billion that represents a 39 drop in trading notice how much of this is related to trading and how little is actually really at this point related to hodlers or diamond handers it's really traders that make the market and we've heard this before that institutions trade uh 70 of the crypto that's that that trades that institutions are really the ones driving price actions and if they need to hedge against risky style assets and they need to beta hedge one of the things they'll do is they'll sell things that have uh that have an elevated beta and unfortunately tech stocks within the s p 500 have a high beta and the correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks keeps getting more and more clear so if hedge funds are selling off tech stocks because of what's happening with the federal reserve federal reserve today providing a completely disastrous account of what's happening in the economy albeit that was about a three week old meeting that we just reviewed or got the minutes for today it's still weighing on crypto as well just to give you a very very sort of uh brief synopsis of essentially what was talked about we had talked from the federal reserve about having the largest balance sheet ever high inflation more short-term bonds than ever before risk to the upside for inflation risks are the downside for the economy and that inflation is broadening and last week we talked about how a cryptocurrency specifically bitcoin is not at all trading like an inflation hedge in fact it's trading much more like a risk asset or risk on asset or textile asset and we saw this when we broke down the catalyst last week of how crypto is moving in relation to what sort of activity is happening in the actual marketplace and see you might remember this remember we wrote what moves bitcoin well folks fear about inflation going up and fear about the federal reserve raising interest rates moves bitcoin down not up because what moves bitcoin up is money printing without inflation so a brief summary would be fed fears and high inflation equals bad for crypto lower inflation accommodated fed good for crypto so that's just another one of the reasons that we're facing right now so so far we've got quite a few we've got a decline in active wallets we've got volumes and open interest declining we've got more transfers from wallets to brokerages then we've got this correlation between the fed fears nasdaq the technologies all rotating to the downside also hurting crypto and the last thing that we've started seeing although this is not i don't really want to call this the fifth catalyst yet so that's why i'm only really saying four but it's just another one that we really have to pay attention to is bitcoin liquidations in the last 24 hours we've had over 500 million dollars worth of crypto liquidations let's take a look here actually now at 12 points actually ticked up right now we're sitting at total liquidations at over 740 million dollars of all kryptos if i just sort to btc we're actually at 282 million of just btc liquidations for ethereum liquidations we're at about 143 solana 17 17.9.71 xrp actually 16.7 so moving up a little bit jumping to matic 7 mana algo you can play with these here but if we jump on over just to see this graphically we could scroll here and see this elevated pane here in liquidations and this generally is associated with a decline in cryptocurrency prices so these are a lot of issues that we're facing right now all at the same time decline in active trading wallets people trading less maybe they have less money to buy and go shopping we're seeing uh futures volume decline remember bito that was the bitcoin futures etf that surged to one billion dollars in assets under management within uh the first two days of trading right now it's only at 1.2 billion so i guess i shouldn't say only because that's still technically up 20 percent but it had most of its growth the first two days and then just sat there so decline in active wallets a decline in uh futures trading an increase in liquidations fed fears all of these things combined are creating a lot of fud in the cryptocurrency market space to where while you still have some analysts who are like don't worry we're still going to 100k there are a lot of people who are getting vocal coverage right now about oh no don't worry sell your bitcoin now because we're going down a lot further before we go back up now i don't know but let's take a look at some of the technical analysis i will say if we get a full break under where we are now which is a line of about 45 seven we are potentially knocking on the door of a 37 592 again that's the next stop uh then of course we've got some soft stops in the mid 30s uh the the red lines here softer stops harder stop at about 32 6 and then we get some strong support lines on that 30 30 31 30 and 29.2 level uh for btc so hopefully we don't have to trend in this direction but uh right now we're definitely not uh jumping up and down with the uh the fake out rallies that we've been getting from bitcoin uh multiple different fake outs here to try to get us off of support and this uh this fed meeting information was really the nail in the coffin to help push us over the edge to the downside here ethereum now under 35 same sort of break to the downside not great because the next stop could be 25 100.
we go ahead and jump on over to uh aida ada sitting at 122. next stop brings us right back down to a buck look at this how we're playing these support lines almost perfectly take a look at this you had your breakout uptrend got rejected by that 150 and came right back down to support uh it's uh i'll tell you basic technical analysis or the kind of information i teach in the stocks and psychology of money course is extremely critical when you are investing in cryptocurrencies the same thing here take a look at this you got uh you bounced off of the 147 this is all in the day chart you broke through 187 but got rejected at 206 only to come for a brief landing at 171 and now solana is rejecting right back down to about 147 again over and over and over again these support lines which i don't move i leave them stable only time i ever move them is totally by accident but if you look at my past videos you see they're always consistently at the same spots ada solana uh you know bitcoin ethereum let's go ahead and take a look at matic so uh here's matic don't have many lines drawn for a matic but clearly a rotation down here uh we we're still on an uptrend uh i would say sort of a more broad uptrend from the middle of december here we could see that trending uh nicely up here we are getting uh higher lows which is good uh we're not really seeing higher highs anymore we were so we'll see what's happening you know what ends up happening here if we end up converging down and finding a new support level but right now that's a little difficult to determine exactly where that might be we could do a fibonacci retracement what if we went ahead and did that and we took a i'm going to go ahead and measure from the floor that we had in september this was really before the rally and it kind of ignores all of the madness that happened in the summer so if i go ahead and draw down from a peak here on fib and pull down to the bottom here it looks like we're getting close to bouncing off of that 197 line on matic we got stuck around the 78.6 percent line at 2.52 but of course the next stop after this if we end up do hitting that 197 level could be 175.
so it gives you a little bit of perspective into some of the drama that's going on i think a lot of this is uh well i mean ultimately it comes down to what you believe as to whether or not it's overblown or not what's happening with the federal reserve if you believe that the federal reserve has lost its plot and inflation's going to the moon you probably don't want to be in tech or risk-based assets or quite frankly crypto to some degree because it is trading as a risk-based asset not an inflation hedge if you believe that the fed is overreacting and we're inflation and a return to some form of accommodation from the federal reserve even though technically we're still accommodative right now uh that the fear is that the fed's going to tighten substantially then uh then in that case maybe it's uh these are all perfect opportunities to buy the dip and hopefully you'll get rewarded handsomely in the future if you want to see all my moves every time i buy or sell something you get access check that program out link down below folks i really appreciate you being here bye
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