저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 Li Lu의 2020년 2분기 13F 보유 변화를 분석하며, 페이스북과 구글 신규 매수를 DCF로 평가한 결과 페이스북은 고평가, 구글은 소폭 고평가로 본다. 13F 보유 현황: Himalaya Capital 2020년 6월 말 기준 Bank of America, Micron은 1분기부터 유지, 2분기에 Facebook과 Google(Alphabet)을 신규 매수했다. 비중 추정: 현재가 기준 미국 주식 내 비중은 Micron 42%, Bank of America 30%, Facebook 15%, Google 13%로 추산했다. 페이스북 DCF: 할인율 10%, 터미널 배수 15배, 1~5년 성장률 15%, 6~10년 3%로 가정(평균 약 9%). 무료현금흐름 188억 달러, 자본가치 6,040억 달러, 주식수 28.79억 주 기준 적정가 약 210달러. 현재가 261달러는 적정가 대비 약 24% 고평가. 페이스북 매수 가정: 2분기 저점 154달러에 매수했다고 가정하면 적정가 대비 약 27% 할인 매수다. 구글 DCF: 1~5년 성장률 9%, 6~10년 3%(평균 6%), 터미널 배수 15배 가정. 자본가치 7,610억 달러, 주식수 6.87억 주 기준 적정가 약 1,108달러. 현재가 1,518달러는 적정가 대비 약 37% 고평가. 구글 저점 비교: 2분기 저점은 적정가와 거의 같아 할인폭이 작다고 평가했다. 해석: 발언자는 Li Lu가 자신보다 깊은 분석을 했을 것이라 보며, 구글의 안드로이드·지도 등 미수익화 자산 가치를 강조했다. 리스크/조건: 성장률·할인율·터미널 배수 등 가정에 따라 결과가 크게 달라지며, 과도한 수익화는 고객 이탈 위험이 있다고 언급했다. 향후 전망: 버크셔 해서웨이가 페이스북·구글을 매수할지 주목하지만 확실한 예측은 없다. 본인은 투자 의견을 명시적으로 매수·매도로 밝히지 않았다.
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hey what's up stock compounders brad here so i thought i was done covering 13 f's for the quarter however lilu just released his 13f for himalaya capital management and there's some interesting stuff in there but first if you're not familiar with lilu so charlie munger basically has his family assets in three different places one of them is berkshire hathaway one of them is costco and the other piece is with lilu through himalaya capital management okay so charlie munger really trusts this guy and charlie munger obviously one of the greatest value investors of all time so that says a lot about lilu that charlie munger would trust you know lilu with his kind of family money so let's look at the 13f for lilu's himalaya capital management so all we do is we go to the sec.gov website we search himalaya capital management i'm going to click on this 13f filed 817.
so we click on that i'm going to click this third hyperlink here and that's going to take us to his holdings so these are himalaya capital management holdings as of june 30th of 2020. now we've got bank of america and micron those are positions that lilu had last quarter ending march 31st those haven't changed so he didn't do anything with those in the second quarter facebook and google or alphabet are new so he bought these in the second quarter so i want to take a look at some discounted cash flow evaluations for both facebook and google to try to get a sense of what lilu might be seeing in these two companies and i just wanted to note as of today's prices so assuming right now you know lilu owns the same number of shares in these four stocks based on today's prices i just want to give you kind of the percentage of the fund that each of these four holdings make up so micron 42 percent of his us equities 42 bank of america 30 facebook 15 and google 13 so you know adding facebook and google that makes up almost 30 percent of um this this u.s equity holdings for for himalaya capital management so let's look at facebook and google first we're going to look at facebook i'm going to walk you through this discounted cash flow valuation that i just did this morning so in order to determine what the value of a share of facebook stock is uh how i'm doing that we're using a discounted cash flow evaluation model which means we're uh estimating what the future cash flows of the business are going to be and then we're going to discount those back to today's value using a discount rate so i use a discount rate of 10 and that's basically because i know over the long term i can get 10 returns just by investing passively into the u.s stock market through an index fund through like an s p 500 index so i need to make at least 10 percent if i'm going to be investing in individual stocks because i can make 10 passively in an index fund so this is kind of like my opportunity cost if i can't make 10 percent i'm moving on uh and then terminal value of 15 so this is essentially if i once we calculate the free cash flow for year 10 we're going to assume all right if we wanted to sell the business at year 10 what can we get for it and for a great business like facebook we can use a multiple of 15.
if we're talking about a business that's you know not as great more of an average business i'm going to be using a terminal value of of 10 a terminal value multiple of 10. we're going to use 15 for facebook and then growth rates there's a few different ways you can estimate growth rates yahoo finance if you go to facebook stock through yahoo finance you can click the analysts tab scroll all the way down it'll tell you what the average analyst estimate is for growth rate of the business now those are hit and miss i'm often not very impressed by those figures another thing i like to do aswath damadran the dean of business valuation he's a professor at nyu he does a lot of valuations and a couple years ago he valued both facebook and google and he puts a lot of thought into you know what numbers he's using particularly growth rate so i actually used this 15 percent based on aswath damadran's valuation and also looking at you know what what has revenue growth been what has operating income growth been for facebook over the last handful of years and i think a 15 growth rate over the next five years is pretty reasonable uh and then year six through ten i'm tapering that down from 15 down to three percent so this nine percent is really just kind of the average from 15 to 3.
so that's growth rate to get the free cash flow i like morningstar for for financials like this um so morningstar trailing 12 months of free cash flow 18.82 billion dollars so that's where i got that and then same thing morningstar is where i got the cash and the debt that we're going to use in this valuation so current as of quarter two cash and cash equivalents for facebook 58.24 billion come down here we get debt of 10.53 billion you see that's rounding to 11.
and then based on all of that we have a value of equity based on the present value of future cash flows add the cash subtract the debt and we have an equity of 604 billion okay and then we need the number of shares outstanding to figure out what is the value per share we have the value of all of the equity so the share is outstanding this is including diluted shares which is including options warrants basically anything that be can become shares of facebook that isn't in that form currently so shares outstanding 2.879 billion shares and this is from the last quarterly report for facebook which to get the most direct information for that you can just type facebook investors it'll take you to the investors page of facebook and you can look at their financials on there so we take 604 billion divided by 2.879 billion to get 210 dollars per share so that's my estimate of what facebook stock is worth you know obviously people are going to use different discount rates different growth rates none of this is set in stone even terminal values you might have a different you might want to use a different number but based on my assumptions 210 is kind of my fair value for facebook stock now the current price is 261.
per share so you know in my opinion facebook stock at least from my perspective is 24 overpriced right now the price is 24 higher than the value but of course you know lee liu bought sometime in quarter two so you know he's not buying at 261 necessarily so the low i'm just going to assume he got it near the low because he's a great value investor and um i'm just curious what is the margin of safety if we assume he bought at the low okay so the low was in early april of 2020 right at the beginning of quarter two and that was a hundred and fifty four dollars per share so assuming you know if lilu bought at that low of 154 according to my value of facebook he bought at a 27 percent discount to fair value so you know that that's pretty compelling um so that kind of makes sense to me why lilu would buy facebook there's also if you're considering facebook there's a write-up from september of 2018 on value investors club which if you if you're not familiar with it it's a fantastic resource to you know look at investment theses from great investors uh to see you know what what is this investor seeing in facebook um so check that out it's a really good write-up actually that one uh so right we got facebook let's take a look at google so google discounted cash flow evaluation um i assumed a nine percent growth rate for google from years one through five and tapering down to three percent years six through ten with an average of uh six percent there same discount rate same terminal value google is a great business um and then these numbers again are from morningstar we got the trailing 12 months free cash flow cash debt so if we consider all of those things we have a value of equity of 761 billion dollars okay now the shares outstanding i got again from the latest quarterly report from uh from google's website and that's 687 million shares outstanding for a value per share of 1 108 somewhere around 1100 um current price 15 18.
so that's significantly higher actually 37 percent higher than the value that i came up with for google but if we look at the quarter 2 low which again was in the beginning of april it's slightly lower than the value that i just came up with you know one percent lower basically the same so not as much of a discount with google according to my discounted cash flow evaluation but you know i'm sure lee liu in order for him to plow you know how much should he put in he's got 131 million dollars in google in order for him to do that i'm sure his analysis of google is a a bit more extensive than what i'm doing here so you know he potentially sees things that that i'm not seeing uh this is actually a really good write-up this write-up from january of 2019 on google uh it's amazing the assets that google has that they're not even monetizing yet you think of the android platform you think of google maps i mean google owns so many assets so you know it's just a question of you know how aggressive are they going to be trying to unlock value in terms of dollars from those assets over time because obviously you've got to consider the customer experience if you're too aggressive trying to generate cash from those digital assets that you could lose people so it's it's kind of finding that balance so it'll be really interesting to see you know what what google's growth plan is over the next five ten years uh because they i mean they just have so many valuable uh like i said assets that could um produce a lot of cash for them if if they wanted to pursue that route so anyway uh that's kind of my assessment for for google and facebook uh lilu i mean fantastic investor it's really interesting to see him buying into google and facebook not a huge surprise i mean we've seen other great value investors recently buying more and more of companies like facebook and google but again it'll be interesting to see how that plays out anyway guys i'm curious to hear from you let me know what you think of facebook and google and what you think about this move from lilu buying into these companies it'll also be interesting to see if if berkshire follows suit anytime soon i'm pretty sure they don't own any google or facebook but i know lilu and charlie munger and and warren buffett you know they have a there's a lot of overlap in terms of investment philosophy so this might be a sign of things to come from berkshire we'll see what happens anyway guys just want to share my thoughts on lilu's latest 13f latest portfolio editions
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