저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
2016년 인도 정부의 모리셔스 조세협정 개정 발표를 환영하며, 세금 불확실성 해소로 외국인 투자 환경이 개선됐다고 평가함. 인도 시장은 중장기적으로 상승할 것이라 보고, 브라질·칠레 등 원자재 신흥국이 하락한 상황에서 단기적으로는 인도가 일시 상회할 수 있으나 장기적으로는 인도가 우위라고 함. 은행 부실채권(NPA) 문제는 2017년 3월 말쯤 실체가 드러나고 해결 국면에 들어갈 것으로 봄. 다만 구체적 시점·규모 예측은 제시하지 않음. 니프티 지수는 88000·99000·10000·12000 등 방향성 위주로만 언급하고 구체 목표가는 명확히 제시하지 않음. 시장이 상승할 것이라고 낙관하나 시점과 폭은 신이 아니므로 알 수 없다는 입장. 모디 정부 2년 평가는 기대가 컸으나 인도 변화에는 시간이 걸린다며 긍정적이고, 향후 경제성장률은 매년 소폭 개선될 것으로 봄. 2016~2017년 중 성장 최고점은 2016년이라고 언급. 미국 대선과 관련해 트럼프가 공화당 후보가 될 것이라는 전망에 대해서는 특정 입장을 밝히지 않고, 본인은 인도 시장에 집중한다고 함. 개인 투자자에게는 좋은 펀드매니저를 골라 SIP(정기적립식)로 투자하라고 조언. 가장 큰 불장(Mother of All Bull Runs)이 가까이 왔다고 강조하나 구체적 시기는 밝히지 않음.
다듬은 글
A very big announcement was made by the government yesterday, and there was some fear about it too. But the kind of statements you have given since this morning definitely welcome this step with great clarity. Should it be said that the Modi government has clarified the uncertainties of the tax treaty in one shot?
This is absolutely correct. Earlier, whenever the government tried to fiddle with something, there was a lot of uncertainty. Now they have given equal notice and have not made anything retrospective. Long-term net gains are tax-free, and whatever you do in derivatives and short-term investments till March 31, 2017, will be taxable, and after that, half the tax will be levied.
According to me, they have done a very reasonable and right thing. There was also fear in the market, because people were sitting with such fear that if something like this happens, Indian markets will become very unattractive. You always say that India is one of the only markets where I am absolutely committed, and as long as I have the strength, I am going to stay there.
There will be no such thing in India. Such a thing cannot happen. I feel India's journey to improve its growth ability could go backwards. One thing is that whenever you invest anywhere, you first look at the prospects and then the tax, and at 75%, a very reasonable rate of tax. These are the voices that were repeatedly coming from foreign investors.
You know, there was a sense of an attempt being made to create an environment where the Modi government had not lived up to its reputation, and to some extent we heard the voices of dissenters. But suddenly, post-budget, if we look at it, it seems there has been a change in strategy from their side as well.
At this point, do you expect Indian markets to outperform other emerging markets? Going forward, the only thing I should say is that other markets like Brazil have declined so much. Chile has declined so much, and all the commodity-linked emerging markets have declined a lot. So maybe for a temporary period they could outperform India, but over a period of time India will outperform.
Rakesh ji, you must have seen this year's earnings as well. Some time back we had an exclusive conversation with Mr. Raghuram Rajan, and he also indicated that there are many concerns in the international community regarding banking. But the pain about NPAs and unviable assets will be out of the way in maybe the maximum two years.
If that is taken into consideration, then a huge roadblock in terms of visibility seems to be clearing in front of the Indian market. I feel that by March 31, 2017, the true picture of the banks' problem will come to light. How deep the problem is, and what that picture looks like, will come to the fore only after that. India is not going to be closed for all time to come, and this problem of the banks is now reaching its climax. Once that climax comes, everything will be known. The pain is becoming known, and when the pain is known, medicine will definitely come. In fact, there are also indications that after this, such a treaty can be done with Singapore as well.
So should it be considered that this is a good, constructive approach? If the government wants to take the market along, then some positive cues can also be taken from it, because the market has been given enough time to digest this treaty. In fact, the entire tax structure given in it is quite transparent in itself. First of all, whatever is applicable to Mauritius is also applicable to Singapore, so whatever is going to happen to Mauritian investors will happen to Singapore investors in the same way. Secondly, what the government did is that it handled all the litigation and tax matters. The investor did not mind paying, but he did not like uncertainty and he did not like litigation. The litigation has come to an end. Third, whether the government had to impose tax or not is everyone's personal opinion, but the government had to impose tax. So this was the most transparent, practical, and correct manner of doing this.
Some of the experts we spoke with, Rakesh ji, were still trying to give some assurance that it is difficult to implement practically. A lot of money comes through P-Notes, and there might be concerns on this. You might think so. Who said that? Who is telling you that nothing changes for P-Notes?
When you invest through P-Notes, you get the same tax benefits as a person who is registered with SEBI. Now he continues in the same position. I don't know who is spreading this myth that P-Notes will be affected. They will not be affected at all.
So in your opinion, Rakesh ji, since now there is a lot of transparency, and as you said, there is a clear parallel between Mauritius and Singapore, if we consider this as a benchmark from here, how much return should we expect in the market going forward in two to three years? Can we expect a new high in the markets, brother?
We can tell the depth, we can say the direction. Now, if we knew when it will rise and how much it will rise, we would have become God. I think the market will rise, and there will be a good rise. Nifty will remain at 8,800, 9,900, 10,000, 12,000... who knows? Time will tell.
In fact, this is a good opportunity, Rakesh ji, because the two years of the Modi government are also about to complete. On the same occasion, this announcement made with Mauritius is also a big signal for the global investor community. Two things: first, India will no longer go towards taxation in a retrospective manner, and second, all such litigation will be resolved constructively in the same manner in the future. Can this be considered a big takeaway?
In the two-year term of the Modi government, a sensible government, overall, how satisfied are you with its performance over the last two years? Look, sir, when the Modi government came to power, we became very, very expectant. Now I realize that it's difficult to change anything in India, but the work the government is doing is very good. It will take some time for its effect to be seen. Modi ji also took some time to learn how to handle Delhi. I am very bullish. Thank you, done, good. And the effect of that good work will become very positive.
In the days to come, there was such a bad dispute over capital gains. Every SC would charge capital gains tax. Brother, yours is not capital gain but business income. They ended the dispute. The kind of fiscal roadmap the government has given... but the second part of it is to kick-start investment in the economy, and second, along with that, job creation.
Going forward on both these fronts, do you think there will be further improvement, given the kind of macro structure or setup we have at present? 100% the government is trying, and India is on the upturn, on a growth upturn. There is going to be growth in India, and every year there is going to be more growth than the previous year. Now there will be 50 basis points of growth, it will be 1% more. That is the basic upturn. Corporate performance is back, you are seeing it, because whatever upturn comes will come in the structural economy, the basic economy. I think that in these three years, 13, 14, 15, 16, the best growth will be in '16. If there are good rains and no disturbance internationally, then it will surprise, not on the upside, right?
Rakesh ji, what is your personal view on this fear? I would like to know. Donald Trump is emerging. In fact, it is almost certain that he will be the Republican candidate in the US presidential election. Whatever concerns are related to this, would you give any view? Who will win first, in India? I know who will become the Prime Minister of America. We will keep watching, and I think if Trump becomes the President, he will not do anything wrong.
It is very easy to say from outside, but when I come, can I do all that? It is very difficult to do all that. Babu will build the wall of Mexico. People say anything in the elections just to say it. It is true, but what is your view globally at this time, because there are different concerns, like the Chinese economy and the concerns related to it?
I do not have a global view. Hey brother, I do not have a global view. My view is of India: take a share and enjoy. This is my basic, very simple view.
This consumption is a lot of expectation of banks. You yourself have given your view that by 2017 there will be a crisis. Do you know why there is consumption? Tell them to choose a good fund manager and invest in SIPs.
Sir, what you are saying right now is that the best investor of the country... something is going to happen after hearing on TV from Janwa. But we are listening to the best investor of the country, and we would like to hear from him what his advice is for detailed investors at this time.
Invest money, invest in SIP. You will ask at 2 o'clock in the night. You will ask on the 18th. You will ask on the 24th. You will ask in 2014. You will ask in 2018. My advice is going to be the same.
So one last question to you, Sir. What you always say is, "The Mother of All Bull Runs is yet to happen." Do you see this happening in the near future?
But what happens is, sometimes something appears very close but still remains far away. So it is visible, but once it appeared very close, then it went away. It should still be visible nearby. Come on, Sir, let's hope this happens as soon as possible. Thank you.
We are ahead of us. It is ahead of us, and in the near future. In the near future, what is a foreseeable future? For whom is one year foreseeable? For whom is 100 years foreseeable? But it is near. You can see we are on the foothills. All right, let's... The telling statement is that we are on the foothills of the Mother of All Bull Runs.
Thank you so much for joining us in this conversation, Mr. Jhunjhunwala. Thanks for joining us. Pleasure having you on the show, as always.
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