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hey everyone me kevin here holy smokes so what is going on with bitcoin what is double spend what should we do going forward is it time to sell is it time to buy what like what is arc invest doing what is going on with the grayscale bitcoin trust uh is it floundering and oh my gosh there's so much to unpackage the easiest way to do this is just relax take a deep breath and walk through it all together because we've got the answers in this video or as many answers that i could put together all right first let's start with the most important issue right now because google search trends for this are skyrocketing we have to understand double spend because double spend is potentially really bad double spend is where a fraction of bitcoin is used twice in two different transactions that means people can literally buy goods and services twice or two different people could use you know the same coin to buy two different goods and services and then one of those disappears as it gets fixed so somebody ends up getting left screwed out of money the easiest way to think about this in real life is let's say these were i don't know 100 headphones because they're broken you know what let's call them 20 headphones because they're broken uh and two people walked into a store one person walked in first bought these broken headphones for twenty dollars and then a second person walked in using a magic replica of that same twenty dollars but also some twenty dollar broken headphones came out with them now both people have the 20 broken headphones the merchant's like cool i got two 20 bills puts it in the till closes the tail and then all of a sudden poof one of the 20 disappears aka the merchant just got screwed out of 20 that's kind of how you can think about double spend they get double products merchant gets screwed it's a great way to defraud bitcoin and if this actually happened like if bitcoin double spend was a real problem bitcoin would probably collapse like literally calamitously implode it could potentially go down to as close as zero some wall street experts say because it would lose all of the underlying trust that bitcoin has that this is just a permanent blockchain record which is actually redundant i'll explain that and that double spend can't happen and if it does it gets corrected okay so here's what we got to know about blockchain quickly and then double spend is going to make a whole much more sense so the whole point about the blockchain is the blockchain is a permanent record chain when you hear block think permanent record when you hear chain think well chain or just a bunch of spreadsheets put together that's your block chain and keep in mind there is no regulatory body or oversight body for bitcoin so if there's an issue or fraud going on it's a problem because you've got decentralized companies and businesses and people verifying transactions and you actually have a ton of duplication of transactions and so what happens is you have a bunch of different nodes or minors verifying transactions they all get these fancy things called hash keys and as long as everybody gets the same result that block is considered verified boom you move on and i'm really oversimplifying here i know it's way more detailed than this and i'm just scratching the surface but the point is if there was a double spend instance that came up technically that person would have an unmatched hash it's called and they would have their verification get rejected and so that is a way by having all these different verifications going on that bitcoin kind of prevents double spend from happening and if double spend happened that means the verification system failed and it would be deadly for bitcoin it would be very very very bad for bitcoin fortunately though this is where the news comes in this whole double spend talk that happened today had to do with a 21 transaction that ended up being declared a payment processor issue not an issue of double spend that the verification process actually worked properly rejected the double spend and no there was no actual bitcoin double spend this basically means that bitcoin system worked it prevented a potential double spend scenario and now we know that bitcoin is and and this happens regularly transactions regularly get disputed but it was just this rumor gets squashed by the truth that no there was no double spend bitcoins good this underlying security of bitcoin remained stable good we like that that reiterates that bitcoin's technology works but why then if if that's you know the bad news that was reported and this is the good news why is bitcoin selling off then all right so let's talk about why it's selling off what we should do about it arc and grayscale and all that so i want to quickly say on december 30th i made a video talking about a coming bitcoin crash uh and i got so much hate and people unsubscribing on that video because i simply suggested hey i'm looking at this right here and i think there's a chance bitcoin could fall because of this that i had people unsubscribing left and right because they're like oh my gosh you're just hating on bitcoin like no like it was it was just supposed to be like a fair heads up but anyway now that it's fallen 25 uh in in the last you know week and a half here let's understand what the heck is going on why is bitcoin falling what are the different reasons why bitcoin is falling there are three big ones that we're going to address and what should we do about it let's get into that right now first janet yellen inflation and regulation janet yellen whose entire three and a half hour senate confirmation hearing earlier this week i broke down in a nice a 30-minute segment with the most important highlights including information on cryptocurrency which you should definitely watch you want to subscribe for this kind of content anyway use that little runescape button it's at one of these corners so you can subscribe but anyway uh janie yellen she she had a lot of things to say she spent a lot of time talking about stimulus relief inflation kovid and she touched on cryptocurrencies as well and this is very important because when janet yellen the next treasury secretary strongly believes that inflation is going to stay low echoing the opinions of jerome powell then this really starts going counter to what a lot of people who invest in bitcoin believe and now we know that there's a real big difference between what we think of as real inflation as bitcoin investors and what the government calls inflation but the fact that janet yellen is coming out and reiterating very confidently that inflation could stay low it definitely makes people wonder like oh this isn't good and you begin to question the investments into bitcoin protecting or inflation protecting assets like bitcoin see kathy wood for example also over at arc thinks says there's a very good chance we're going to see some big inflation coming and that the fed's going to be wrong and they're going to have to reverse course and that's why investing in bitcoin could be a good hedge personally i believe that if the velocity of money that we're seeing stays low in theory we can keep printing money for the time being and not have inflation which again sounds ridiculous however if velocity to money goes up and you could track that just type in m2 money velocity into google and and you can find this but anyway if money velocity goes up oh yeah we're gonna have bad inflation and bitcoins going to the moon as a hedge but right now people are like okay so what is it is it inflation is it not and janet yellen's like harsh rhetoric about inflation not coming could have potentially helped spawn this big sell-off that we have uh and again people measure inflation in different ways but she's going to have a powerful voice as the treasury secretary her as as the representation of the us government and the federal reserve which is technically not the government it's supposed to be independent but both of them saying no inflation it makes people potentially question okay maybe maybe we're not actually going to see inflation or they're just lying to our faces so they can buy bitcoin sheep who knows oh but she also touched on the need to regulate cryptocurrency which honestly that could have hurt as well so janet yellen hitting on both of these things could have potentially had an impact in fact just to evidence to you that this topic about janet yellen is actually so important look at what kathy wood tweeted today she said as the chair of the federal reserve from 2014 to 2018 janet yellen was on policy watch as bitcoin soared from 1 dollars to twenty thousand dollars in 2017 the fact that this week she focused on the risk of potential nefarious actors instead of the risks to u.s monetary sovereignty is reassuring aka kathy wood saying hey look janet yellen doesn't think like the dollar's power is going to get replaced by bitcoin which most i mean there are some people who think bitcoin could be a currency that replaces the dollar i don't think that's ever going to happen it's possible that stable coins that are pegged to the dollar replace the dollar but the dollar's not going to go anywhere it takes a lot of power away and so that's not going to happen and so kathy wood here is saying hey look it's good that she's not thinking that bitcoin's going to do that because then kathy would would be saying hey yeah yellen you're totally misunderstanding what's going on here that's not what she's saying which is good instead she's talking about hey maybe we do need to watch bitcoin for potentially uh you know for potential crime uh then uh one of the analysts over at arc who handles cryptocurrencies uh he said interesting that treasury secretary janet yellen to be confirmed has stated concerns that cryptocurrencies are being used mainly for illicit financing on the same day that chain analysis reported a dramatic fall in cryptocurrency transactions associated with criminal activity ah interesting so decline in criminal activity total illicit interesting i wish they he put the can we see this uh it doesn't have the date scale up i would have liked to see the date scale maybe if uh if you go to this tweet you might be able to expand it and see it if you want to learn more about that but that's his conclusion also as arc noted in the past cash transactions account for a larger share of illicit transaction activity than cryptocurrencies do yeah you could definitely expand these if you go to his profile uh i'd be more concerned if yellen denounced bitcoin as a threat to monetary sovereignty kind of again this is what kathy wood reiterated absolutely and as a neutral technology bitcoin cannot identify criminals this does not make it inherently or an inherently criminal tool phones cars and the internet are no less bannable for facilitating criminal activity than bitcoin is so clearly arc invest is like do not mess without bitcoin okay bitcoin moon we are on the rocket ship do not talk bad about a bitcoin we we will come after you and and you know what look you might be like hell yeah are go for it but i have to tell you how smart is arc invest that is how they get all i mean obviously performance helps as well but that's how they reiterate the people's love for them very very smart uh i have to say just absolutely smart uh so then now this brings up the the next issue right because that's not the only reason a bitcoin prices were shaky today or have been shaky here uh it's not only because of janet yellen it's also because bitcoin has recently failed some technicals uh technical tests on charts wall street traders believe that if bitcoin could hold over 40 000 it would have the potential to go over fifty thousand dollars and break through however bitcoin failed that 40k test it only briefly went up to forty one thousand nine hundred forty but it couldn't hold up it didn't get support and it ended up uh selling off uh it hit some big resistance there and uh fell straight down so uh it's been very volatile since then and now we're down about ten thousand dollars since that high now in fairness bitcoin did double in under a month from twenty thousand to forty thousand so twenty five percent is not a surprise to have some kind of correction or pullback here but some traders warned that this pullback could end up leaving bitcoin retracing all the way down to twenty thousand again now wall street right now seems to be settling at the 40k target as this maintenance threshold for bitcoin but who knows if that ends up getting adjusted over to 30k or wherever we end up finding some sort of uh support for a bitcoin now the third problem with uh bitcoin right now as to why we might be seeing a sell-off uh and this is what i talked about in my prior video on december 30th when i suggested just be careful this could be a catalyst for a bitcoin crash and this remains true this could continue to be a catalyst so i'm gonna bring it up again and this is not me saying i want bitcoin to crash i do not want bitcoin to crash oh i'll be very very clear about that this is just me pointing out like this could be a catalyst for a problem so just know this so that way when it happens you don't have to panic sell uh and you could just use it as a buying opportunity that's the way i would look at it but anyway if you're not familiar with this yet this is something i've already talked to all my course members about we even set some dates for when we might want to uh sell bitcoin if we were going to sell bitcoin it's not anytime soon but we did set that on the calendar these are these are the things we talk about in the daily live streams when the topic comes up especially after you know i found something interesting the course members are always the first to hear about it uh link down below you could use that coupon code as well remember that coupon code is there you go it gets a 38 off which is uh pretty valuable but anyway okay i i know bitcoin investors don't like hearing about cpi but but realize this is going to be very important when right now this is this is the chart of the consumer price index this is what the consumer price index has done and how it's sort of behaved here right here let's clean up a little bit there we go so what's going to happen is in april we're going to report year-over-year inflation data well in april we're going to be at a cpi level of not about 262 but we're probably going to be sitting somewhere around 265 in terms of cpi and again even if you hate cpi just listen to this it's important so if we're sitting at 265 in march and april let's say let's let's call that march for example okay so march is 265.
the way they're going to calculate cpi is they're going to go over here and say what was march of last year and we can follow that line over and see that we were right around 256. so all you have to do is do 265 which is to you know potentially marches cpi if we go there which is likely divide that by 256 and when you do that math 265 divided by 256 you'll get 1.035 take off one percent or 100 right you end up with 3.5 inflation year over year that means this bump uh right here like that bump we're going to see is going to be 3.5 inflation year over year it's not going to be month to month and that's going to stay that's going to be there in march year over year and it might even go up to like 3.7 in april so yeah when that happens my expectation is there's a chance bitcoin could could skyrocket but when people realize wait a minute the only reason cpi actually looks that high is because we had this you know sort of pandemic trough here then we might not actually see those higher inflation readings because the year-over-year inflation reading isn't actually what we should be comparing to because you know realistically if this trend line continued here we'd probably be more at like 260 cpi if we didn't have that dip and so in that case if we divided 265 by 260 we'd be like 1.8 1.9 inflation which would be kind of relatively normal and expected so uh yeah i mean obviously rough calculation here with with the 1.9 but uh the other the other thing it's true it's gonna happen it's gonna happen so be aware that that could be a catalyst and i think that that could also be leading to some tumult in bitcoin right now as maybe hedge funds start realizing ah crap do we take profits now because uh the cpi data is not going to stay high that long remember hedge funds are always trying to look out ahead they're trying to beat us to this kind of data uh so anyway that's that's just an opinion that i have that does not mean that i'm anti-bitcoin i like bitcoin uh and i want to make this very clear too bitcoin is very volatile right and and i believe that bitcoin is very volatile because when you have hedge funds sell we don't necessarily have the buying support to buy everything that was sold that day and so what happens well if you have more sellers than you have buyers the price goes down but i want to be very clear with my position on bitcoin i believe that bitcoin is extremely volatile when big institutions sell not enough buyers to pick it up prices go down fast this is normal then that leads to more institutions selling because that's sometimes what they do uh and boom you get a sell-off but the beauty here is what we learned today about this double spend actually proves that the blockchain works if the blockchain didn't work bitcoin probably go to zero it would be very bad but because the blockchain reiterated to us that bitcoin works the blockchain works we should actually be more bullish on bitcoin we should be more bullish on bitcoin today and again i said that bitcoin is volatile but it's so important to remember that volatility does not equal speculative speculative is going to the casino going i got a hunch this one's going to be black baby we're going black this one we're going to hit it on black black 35 let's go i don't even know if 35 is black but you all get what i'm saying in my opinion bitcoin is volatile but it is not speculative it is something that is here to stay and blockchain technology continues to reiterate that blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies are here to stay the safest are the ones that get used the most because you have more verifications and certainly the way the systems work a lot of them have different verification systems and they work in different ways i'm not that familiar with the other systems right now i'm focusing on bitcoin so what are the three things we can do well number one we can pan excel which i don't recommend doing number two we can hold and understand that this is volatile and not speculative and there's nothing fundamentally different about bitcoin between today and three weeks ago or two weeks ago number three you can actually consider buying the grayscale bitcoin trust see the graystale grayscale bitcoin trust is basically like buying a stock of a company that holds bitcoin and i know i'm super over simplifying here but a lot of exchange traded funds use the grayscale bitcoin trust because they can't invest in bitcoin in an etf so when you invest in for example arc w the arc invest next generation etf they use the grayscale bitcoin trust to buy bitcoin now you pay a premium to buy bitcoin through this but interestingly because of the recent sell-off the bitcoin premium in the grayscale trust so what you're actually paying above the actual value of the bitcoin they're holding has recently plummeted right now you are paying about a 6.2 percent premium on bitcoin uh purchases through the grayscale trust that's really really low just here around christmas time you were paying about a 40 premium to buy bitcoin through the grayscale trust so here's a takeaway look this fall this dip of premium to under seven percent has happened about 14 times since 2015.
in 11 cases out of those 14 five the average five-day return was eight point eight percent and the average return over the next 30 days was 29 because the average return like premium at the grayscale bitcoin trust is us usually 30 so you tend to get that sort of mean reversion and that could be an opportunity to buy the grayscale bitcoin trust cheap right now relatively cheap uh now again if you buy it you're putting money into bitcoin right so you still have the bitcoin volatility to consider but the premium you're paying is uh is is uh much much lower right now than it has been so there you go if you found this kind of video helpful and these sorts of facts and not speculation this sort of insight consider subscribing to the channel i really appreciate all of the support and make sure you share these sorts of videos if you uh personally learned something i know there are many other people who will learn from this as well and i'd love to share information like this whenever i can i know that youtube does not send all notifications so your help in sharing is always greatly appreciated thank you so very much for your support and folks we'll see in the next video you
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