저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 린치 영상 2부 요약 및 기업 평가. 경영진은 중요하지만 평가가 어렵고, 좋은 스토리가 우선이라는 취지. 진행자는 나스닥 기업 PSR이 2020년 이후 최저, EPS 성장 약 20%, 매출 성장 15~20%를 언급하며 긍정적으로 봄. 스냅챗은 순부채 약 4.5억달러 vs 현금 35억달러 수준으로 상황이 양호하고, 향후 EPS 성장 약 50%, 매출 성장 10%를 언급하며 주가 바닥 반등 가능성을 시사. RSI 과매도와 볼린저밴드 하단 이탈 지표를 활용하는 방법도 소개.
다듬은 글
Hey guys and welcome to the fourth day of uh daily dose of finance. This is will be part four. Yes. Um today uh I'm filming it a little bit earlier. So the market in the US is not open yet. Uh so I just wanted to look at no disc. Of course it's on NASDAQ. Uh it looks kind of nice. I think um like price to sales hasn't been this low since 2020.
So, and it still has about 20% EPS growth a year uh for the at least the next couple of years. And it also has about 15% average 15 up towards uh 20 in in revenue growth. uh as well as it being a P for PV AP of 17 now and trailing down to like 13 in 2027 which is pretty nice. I I'm going to start doing a worksheet um as I did on the stream yesterday starting to with the value pig and uh get everything set up and yeah how it worked for me.
So, uh, today we do the second part for the Peter Lynch video, uh, because I I think the one that we started to watch yesterday was really, really good. It had a lot of good information in it. Uh, where we talked about uh, like great companies like no, Nordisk, everybody was saying, "Oh, if it dips under a certain amount, you should buy it." But a lot of people got trapped like in AMD as well.
And it was just, you know, kept on dipping because it was hyped up. It went really crazy. Did really, really, really, really well. But, um, right now it looks great. Well, looks better. So, uh, we're going to go into the Peter Lynch video and, um, see you there. Uh, importance of management. Uh management is the single most important thing in a company.
But for an outsider to know great management versus good management versus terrific management versus average management, tough to do. Tough to do because you only get an hour at people sometimes a half an hour. And uh how do you know what decisions they didn't make? A lot of great companies have been made because the company didn't make an acquisition.
They didn't get rid of the division. They don't put in the report, we didn't get rid of the tubing division. You know, you don't hear about that. Somebody said made a brilliant decision. We're going to hold on to that thing. We're going to fix it and it's doing great. Now, they might be doing great because some management eight years ago did it right or some did something right five years ago.
That person isn't there anymore or they didn't make any acquisitions or they expanded at the right time. So, knowing what management what they can add to it's the single most important thing very hard to measure. I've always said, I'd like to a company any fool can run because eventually one will. And uh you really want to do that.
When I bought Toys R Us, they had the formula right. Any four people in this room and me could have run Toys R Us. We would have done as well as they did. They're spectacular. But for the next 15 years, we had no competition. We had a great formula. We could have rolled with it. They probably would have done three times as good.
They were the frosting on the cake. But they had the form they're right. No competition. The department stores know what they're doing. There's no copycats. And they were going to just roll for the next 25 years. Same with Circuit City. So I want the story to be solid. If management can add anything on top of it, that's great.
I want to buy the story. Assume management leaves next day and they're replaced by the next generation. That's fine with me. If management can add something to it, that's great. I'm not going to buy it because people say they have great management. Because you'll notice great management is always attached to stocks been up the last eight years.
You ever notice that? Because I looked at Reynolds metals. I used to follow Reynolds Metals. The stock has had the same person run for like 30 years. When when the aluminum was tight, they say Reynolds metals has great management. Aluminum going over supplies. These people are idiots. Then aluminum get tight.
They say these people are terrific. I mean all to do with the price of aluminum. And they keep rating the management by how the stock's doing. It's very hard to measure management. It'd be wonderful to do if you could spend months with them, really see them in action, then you'd know. But you don't really get that chance.
Uh, be flexible. Um, people have all these biases, all these prejudices. They want to buy high growth industries. They won't buy financial companies. They won't buy savings and loans. They won't buy uh companies that start with a letter R. I mean, I, you know, there's all these rules. They all hurt you.
There are great stocks everywhere. There are stocks that are near bankruptcies, stocks in bankruptcies, stocks about to go in bankruptcy. There are companies on the new high list that are attractive. There's company's new low list. They're all over the place. They're in growth industries, non-growth industries.
Don't cut yourself off to one segment. People have way too many prejudices, too many biases. And I always thought of it. I I don't know the women in the audience see this many times, but I always thought of these buy lists at some institutions. We don't have this the fidelity. They have these buy list.
I think Kmart got on on some of these companies buy list three years ago. You know, the Microsoft may get on it about 12 years from now, but they they have these buy lists. And I always thought of the buy list as uh you know, you buy a new shirt, you ever look in the pocket, you get inspected by six or inspected by eight.
Do you ever see those numbers? I mean, I always wondered about that. I always think of those buy lists at those institutions. I see that inspected by six and inspected by eight. In fact, I'm absolutely somebody call me any time of day. Has anybody ever get a shirt inspected by one? I mean, do they retire these numbers?
They have a meeting. I've never had a shirt inspect by one or by two. I think they must put the they raise their numbers in a meeting up to the rafters. But I always think every time I get that number in the shirt, I think of these people working off a buy list of rapidly growing companies only. They have unit growth rate of X or 6x or whatever numbers.
It doesn't work. Uh the uh another thing about it is is math and the kind of math you need to do this. I don't use a computer. I don't have a computer. Uh, I really was doing great math. I was I remember 7* 7 was 41 and 9 * 9 is 81 and you know 12* 12 I think it was 144. So it was some big number. I got that one down cold.
I said this is great. I love this stuff. And the barge left St. Louis going at 8 miles an hour and the train left Pittsburgh and h this stuff is easy. I remember one day I think it was ninth grade. It was a grim day. Somebody introduced cosine. God that day. I mean remember cosign? I mean is has anybody used cosine the last couple years?
I mean this uh let's have a show of hands. How many people have used cosine the last six months? But I I remember tangent and co-angent. Why would you want to know about tangent? Then remember the area under the curve. Remember that crazy your calculus area under the curve. What the hell would you want to measure area under curve for?
You know the uh that is such garbage. You know you don't need this for the stock market. If you can measure, if you can add eight and eight and get fairly close to 16, that's all you need. You know, you say 400 million in debt, no equity, no cash, losing money. Forget it. You know, they get 300 million in cash, no debt, 200 million in net worth, they're losing 10 million a quarter, but they'll be around.
That's all you need. You have to get that's all you need. That is not that hard. If you made through fifth grade math, you can handle this stuff. And I had a a roommate in the army and uh it uh it's a story I always remember. He was talking about he went to this very good school in uh in the south that I won't tell you the name of it, but it's in Atlanta and it rhymes with Roger Wreck.
The uh and they had this uh my hero uh at this school uh was a very good football player. This is this is this is my friend, my roommate telling me the story about this guy. a freshman this great school and he'd go to the line of scrimmage and they change the play. He couldn't figure this out. You know, I don't know if you realize how complicated football is.
Half the plays are change line of scrimmage about 300 plays. You go there, think it's a run to the right. It turns out it's a screen pass to the left or it's a draw. It's all the blocking assignments are changed. All the passing's different. You can do you have to instantly think, uh oh, new play. What do I do in this new play?
Just like that and do it. He could not handle these deals. He says, "Give me the ball. I'll tote it." and he'd go for about eight yards. He was really good at this. Now, this is not why he's my hero. The reason he's my hero in a in a classroom about this size, his freshman year, he asked the question, "Does X always equal seven?" The uh now he he never made it to the second semester.
He never he never made it to the varsity. He never made the NFL because he that damn X, he never could figure out X. No, the uh now I always thought if the UN they could they could resolve what the hell X equal, you know, they could say if it was 247 and a quarter, you know, they just finally resolve what X was, we could save all this time and do something useful, you know.
You don't need it in the stock market with the Welcome back. I think that was a great video from him. Um, saying that when it comes to management, you want to own a company that is that can run with not great management. Like everybody can run this company because it's so great. And then when you have great management, this is where you have the the icing on the cake.
Um, so I think that regard was really really good. uh they're also looking to uh the simplicity of the stock market that kind of stuff like it's not it's not algebra it's not about finding out the value well it's kind of finding the value of the value of the stock of course but it's not that hard to see if if a company has maybe a billion in debt and no cash that is uh really hard but if it has for example hold two billion in cash, almost no debt, or maybe just 1 million in debt, and the company is uh it just is in such m much better standing uh in that sense.
And that's why I kind of pulled up Snapchat. Uh it's not the greatest. It has about 4 and a half billion or so in in um debt and about three and a half billion in um in cash. And it doesn't it's kind of beat down right now, right? And it has a a future EPS growth of about what was it um like almost 50% for the next coming years.
Uh PE that is quite good and also uh a revenue growth of about 10%. So I think it's great. I also did uh 3D print this uh for the stock today and that's why we're also looking at it. So it looks kind of a beat down. It did have a huge peak in 21 by corona and then it fell down so heavily and under the thousand day.
Uh we kind of have this um uh arrows we have on the chart is a pine script that we made in the discord which uh says that if we are outside the the 50 binary bands and at the same time we have a dip under 30 on the RSI we will get the indicator for it. So it might like it looks like it might be a good indicator to kind of scrape the stock off the floor.
But yeah, so I think that's enough for the video today. Uh I think we'll do a part three for the Peter Lynch tomorrow. And um yeah, I hope you have a great day.
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