저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Peter Lynch 강연 발췌를 소개하는 영상. 파산 위험이 없는 부채 없는 기업도 주가가 0이 될 수 있고, '이미 많이 떨어졌으니 더 안 떨어진다', '본전에 팔겠다' 같은 통념은 위험하다고 강조. 주가는 보유자를 모르며, 과거 상승은 예측력이 아니고, 롱샷 장기 투자는 신중히 접근하라는 교훈을 전함. 진행자는 Berkshire 차트와 Celsius 강세를 언급하나 명확한 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey guys and welcome back to the third day of is it third now yeah daily dose of Finance uh to today I think we might look at the Peter Lynch video actually um right now I got celsus up on the chart uh they doing pretty insane today 7 and a half% uh so far and with every being everything being so red today it is pretty crazy but um I'm hoping you're having a good day soon as 1 of April the second uh will be interesting with Trump so enough talking let's jump into the video no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to give some kind of distinguished service award some me do that uh but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was when I said it can't go below 15 so we hung on and within 3 years they gave out the shares and Ka steel gave out the shares and Kaiser SP gave out the shares in Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got about $55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 1511 and you're just saying how much low can it go when it went to 9 went to eight you you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh uh here's a good one if it's gone down this much already it can't go any lower uh I remember when Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100 got to buy it just back up the truck byy the stock uh stock you get to 110 then rally you know fall 103 got 112 got 105 they said gets under 100 bip poid Polaroid broke 100 people started buying it and within 9 months the stock was 18 no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt there's a coral are to that that's even more dangerous Philip Morris sold for 12 cents in 1951 and then it goes to 60 cents in 1961 how much higher can this go it's gone up fivefold they missed the power of Maro they missed the there's 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was 100 bagger after going up fivefold but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks uh that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the uh they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back uh not true uh here's a great one it's $3 how much can I lose this is a great one because yeah I get get out this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high level math but uh just do this one let's say you buy your neighbor buys $10,000 of a stock at 50 the Stock's now three and you put $25,000 in at three if it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in at three you can lose a billion if you know I mean they blow TAPS in lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero here's a good one that helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn uh the uh this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money at uh the uh uh in 1982 there was 11,000 of those oil rigs drilling left you know drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have the Rick count every week and the rig count fell from 11,000 in 82 to 6,000 883 well the rec count was only a th000 three years ago so it went from 11,000 to 6,000 to 5,000 then 8 years later it was under a th000 the industry really started to turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I I was lucky enough and just have the metals industry when start La I had the texti industry these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all and there's a great expression Tex industry It's always darkest before Pitch Black now that's a good one to remember because when business is terrible it can get considerably terrible get terrible to the power of six and uh uh when I rebound to 10 I'll sell uh here's a great rule uh somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six they say if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this love math I think that's about a 66% return you ought to buy it if you think it's back to 10 you ought to buy the hell out of the damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think for the next 26 years the stock go between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to 10 so maybe put 9 and e or eight and 3/4 but just saying the stock if it gets back to what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it remember that but people treat stocks sometimes like a grandchildren or a puppy they they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know what me worry I own conservative stocks uh I don't have to worry I own conservative stocks I Con Ed fell uh 80% then tripled uh so just because you inherit some stock in it's so-called conservative like Eastman Kodak fell 75% IBM fell 75% don't tell anybody you want a conservative stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it in the 13 years of R mellan I listed I think about 200 stocks a through L on the New York Stock Exchange they went up tfold or more that I didn't own and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing uh United Airlines they spent all their time worry about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own that's a very you have the only way to lose money is buy a stock have it go down and sell it that's only way I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's uh it's very bad it's like buying on dips I think it's always better buy from dips I was that was a better rule than Buy on dips you may have to explain this to some other people uh this another technical term you may have to explain after hours what a dip is if stock has gone up I must be right stock has gone down I must be wrong I'm convinced that people do this all the time they buy a stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it it goes to 13 they now say they don't know anything more about it than they knew when they bought at 10 they have no idea what this company does it's gone 13 now they take a second morg in the house and buy to 13 the best thing could happen for was to St up directly from 10 to four for these folks it's going to go to four eventually but it goes to 13 in the middle they're convinced now they bought 100 shares at 10 now they buy 20,000 at 13 and uh all the fact is the stock went from 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock on the New York side stock exchange this Century between its high and low has been 50% the average stock New Stock Exchange so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say this stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn thing avoid long shots uh these are the companies that uh we have this very technical term for this uh called whisper stocks you know these are the stocks that are going to uh grow hair and uh make your kid have better spelling and but they're missing they don't have any sales yet you know that's the missing element of the story the story is sensation there's no profits here no sales yet but my God if this works if this works it's going to be the next zero you know and uh and it's going to help M and space and everything it's a very very good deal now this is not a long shot this is a no shot you have to separate these out I've tried 30 of these I have never broken even on a long shot never I've made 25 30 times my money in some stocks I never thought about Sally May or mbia or Fanny May or some of the banks or Stop and Shop I'd make 20 times the money 30 times money I had no idea I thought the stock should going north I had no idea you look back 10 years later you say my God I made a lot of money in this thing the ones I went into thinking I can make four times my money I've never broken even if a Stock's three and it has huge potential write down the story take the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy it at 15 check in later check a year later see if it's still listed see if you still get a quote on it see if they still have the earrings yet but if it's going write the story down some of these work I haven't heard yet but maybe they will work but it's worth tuning in 6 months later don't buy it then it uh uh so that was Peter Lynch I think the video was uh it was great it had a lot of good uh things in it starting with the the anend OTE on on bankruptcy and debt like if a company earns money will it uh will it go bankrupt then you know um then it goes into stock price misconceptions for example with the with example with Polaroid it being 140 and going well was it if you like if it goes under 100 you have to buy it but of course it went to 18 so that's quite quite much lower I wouldn't like to be in that trade that's for sure um and then also having Philip Morris where people misconcept it it and didn't take into account all their worldwide worldwide sales as well so it was like a 100 bager was crazy um then he started to talk about you know all of the all of the stuff that is kind of uh what can I say like it's $3 how much can I lose well you can lose all your money right this is is why I started the channel and that kind of stuff we want to start looking at uh when I start doing videos for for the stocks we look at the economics of the stocks how much they're earning are they profitable stuff like that um and also and eventually they always come back right and uh this is a good statement as well by him because uh like if you haven't researched a company how can you know like of course yeah it was $20 now it's three will it come back well do you read through the economics of the company and do you find like do you find uh what can say facts that says it should be going back it will turn around again for the company and get back into the to the price and also uh well this is back though but we also have crazy fluctuations in the market now um with haris and everything going around it uh and he he talks about that the stock doesn't have any different with it but it moved about 50% for example in in the different stocks in a year um that is pretty crazy I I think um and he also talked about it's always darker um before the dawn and then he also talked about it's also darker before pitch dark like complet completely Darkness um that was kind of kind of interesting that's that's when you have the mcrafty of course um and also as his end point uh it's worth turning in six months later don't buy then either when it comes to these companies that are kind of these whisper stocks long shots right um so I think it's like if you have a company that doesn't really earn anything but they're just like promising promising they don't really have any cash flow anything they don't have much sales maybe price to sales is something crazy might be 500 so it's kind of interesting and also I pulled up birkshire here at the chart it's kind of I like the chart of it of course I want to own it I personally don't but maybe in the future we will see and I also 3D printed this today think it was kind of fun I also posted it on Twitter and a little short for it but yeah so I think that was the first Petter Lynch video and I think we're going to do more because he's very knowledgeable I think and he has like many many great points so now I think we go outside enjoy the weather and uh I'll see you tomorrow have a nice day
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