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I know there's a lot of fear about the four-year cycle. We didn't have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards. So, we think we're pretty well through the down cycle here. We may test in this 80 to 90,000 range on Bitcoin. Uh but we do think that the test will be successful. It will be the shallowest uh four-year cycle decline in Bitcoin short history.
Uh and then we're off again. Uh we think this is three revolutions in one. A global monetary system, rules-based, competing against fiat currency. To be sure, it is a a technology revolution and it is the leader of a new asset class. All right, so the new inflation report from True Inflation just dropped and it is sitting at 1.2%.
That is wild. And at the same exact time this report came out, Kathy Wood dropped her take on what she expects from crypto this year. Spoiler, she's extremely bullish. Let me break this down for you. Starting with that inflation report, real inflation data, according to Trueflation's real-time index shows US inflation at 1.2%.
That is way below what the government's CPI numbers are telling us. We are talking about actual purchasing power gains happening right now. Why does this matter? Official CPI prints higher because it is slow. It relies on surveys. It lags behind reality. True inflation pulls from millions of live price points every single day.
Markets react to real-time signals first, not outdated reports from weeks ago. What does this mean for us? Fed rate cuts could come sooner. Liquidity could expand. Risk assets like crypto and stocks could get a serious boost from all of this. The narrative has flipped. Inflation is not running hot. It is cooling fast.
Now, with that context, let me show you some predictions floating around the space. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently said he expects crypto markets to hit all-time highs this year. A lot of CEOs in the industry are echoing that bullish outlook. Now, does it concern me a little? Honestly, yes. In previous cycles, these same people were super bullish right before we topped out.
But here's where it gets interesting. Inflation is cooling. The market has been chopping sideways for months. Altcoins have barely moved since January 2025. The market feels different this time. I do not think we are following the typical timeline and I really do not think we have topped out yet. Looking further ahead, remember that Grayscale report they are calling 2026 the dawn of the institutional era.
The key takeaways are that 2026 will accelerate structural shifts in digital assets. We are talking about macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity. Regulatory clarity is still being worked on. We have talked about it plenty on this channel and we will get into it more in this video.
I think once that clarity arrives, it will accelerate everything we have been waiting for. Institutional adoption, institutional capital flooding into crypto. And here's the other thing, the four-year cycle. I think it is dead. We are following liquidity now, and liquidity has expanded beyond that 4-year framework.
I have been saying this on the channel for a while. The overall setup for crypto looks really good this year. Now, let us talk about global money supply. Shout out to Ted Pillows for this breakdown. USM2 money supply is at all-time highs. Japan, China, the Euro zone, all at all-time highs. Money supply is expanding everywhere.
Stocks are at all-time highs. Precious metals are at all-time highs. Gold and silver just hit another record. And crypto still far off from its all-time highs. Ted believes institutions will look at this and start allocating fresh capital into Bitcoin and altcoins this quarter. I agree with him. Think about it.
What have we been hearing all year? Tokenization, institutional adoption. Big players are focused on the long-term outlook for crypto. They know this market has been lagging behind stocks, gold, and silver. But at the same exact time, institutional involvement is higher than ever. ETFs, tokenization projects, stable coin initiatives, the infrastructure is being built.
I think Ted is right. We will start seeing capital rotation into crypto. Look at the market cap of monetary assets. Gold is massive. Silver has been on an absolute tear lately. and crypto still hovering around $3 trillion. The upside potential here is higher than ever. If we are at three trillion now, we could easily hit 6 to 10 trillion or more this cycle.
And by 2030, who knows where we land. ArchInvest actually just gave us an update on that, which I will get to in a minute. First, let me play this clip from Kathy Wood. I know there's a lot of fear about the 4-year cycle. We didn't have much of an up cycle by Bitcoin standards. So, we think we're pretty well through the down cycle here.
We may test in this 80 to 90,000 range on Bitcoin. Uh but we do think that the test will be successful. It will be the shallowest uh four-year cycle decline in Bitcoin short history. Uh and then we're off again. Uh we think this is three revolutions in one. A global monetary system rules-based competing against fiat currency to be sure.
It is a a technology revolution and it is the leader of a new asset class. So here's what Kathy is saying. We have just gone through the shallowest Bitcoin bare cycle in history. Any dip to test 80 to 90K should be shallow and successful. The mildest pullback Bitcoin has ever seen. Why? Because this is not just another having cycle.
This is three revolutions colliding at once. A new global monetary system competing directly with fiat. A massive technology breakthrough. The birth of an entirely new asset class with institutional firepower backing it. Fear is real for a lot of people right now. But Kathy sees the Bitcoin bottom forming and the next leg up getting ready to launch.
And honestly, I think she is on to something. We are in that massive technology breakthrough era for crypto, especially on the institutional side. What are institutions actually excited about? Not price action. If they cared about short-term price moves, these downtrends would scare them away. Instead, they are flooding in.
They see the power behind tokenization, stable coins, onchain payments, and transactions. They are more bullish on the technology than ever before. Now, Kathy also talked about a goldilock setup for the broader economy. She says the US already went through a rolling recession. Housing, manufacturing, small business sentiment, consumer confidence, all took hits already.
What comes next is what markets might be underpricing. Tax cuts, big refunds in Q1, a new corporate investment cycle, deregulation. She says this is highly underestimated. Lower rates plus easing inflation. If she is right, this is not late cycle stress. This is risk assets getting ready to run again.
This ties directly back to that 1.2% 2% inflation number. Lower inflation opens the door for more Fed rate cuts, liquidity expansion, and a boost to risk assets that have been waiting for this moment. Listen to what Kathy says here. Yes. Uh well, we think that uh we've been through a rolling recession.
We've seen it in housing, manufacturing, small business, consumer sentiment, and that thanks to tax cuts, big refunds this first quarter, but corporate tax cuts as well, so big investment cycle ahead. uh as well as deregulation which I think is highly underestimated in terms of its impact uh and lower interest rates and lower inflation sounds like Goldilocks.
Uh that that is all going to play out this year and be very good for the financial markets. If this all plays out within Q1, it is going to be extremely bullish for risk on assets. Right now crypto is lagging behind everything. People keep saying crypto is going to sit this one out that nobody cares about it anymore.
I have heard people say crypto is done, that institutions are ignoring it. And honestly, hearing that makes me bullish. Everyone expects Bitcoin and crypto to just watch from the sidelines while stocks run, while gold and silver run. Crypto really is the only market not running right now. Think about that logically.
This is where smart money starts looking for places to park capital in markets that have not moved yet. Crypto is that market. If everything plays out the way Kathy is describing, if we see these developments by the end of Q1, then just like Ted is saying, institutional players should start flooding in with capital.
And when that happens, crypto expands rapidly. But what about longer term? Invest just released their big ideas 2026 report. They project digital assets could reach $28 trillion in market value by 2030. We are currently sitting at around 3 trillion. That would be almost a 10x return on the total crypto market.
That would be insane. Now, I know what you might be thinking. 28 trillion sounds crazy. No way that happens. But consider this. We just watched gold and silver add trillions to their market caps in a very short time. Crypto has always outperformed both gold and silver historically. I think it will continue to outperform and by an even larger margin.
By 2030, I actually think 28 trillion might be conservative. Here's why. Once we get full regulatory clarity, the floodgates open for institutional capital. And once we get clarity around the utilization of the underlying rails, the value moving over those rails could be trillions of dollars per month.
Stable coins already move around $ 8.5 trillion in value per month. I see that number multiplying significantly once clarity arrives. Speaking of clarity, we just got a new draft of the crypto market structure bill from the Senate AG committee. If this gets streamlined through, if negotiations wrap up and we get this passed by end of Q1, that is another major catalyst on top of everything we already discussed.
David Saxs recently commented on this. He said, "After the market structure bill passes, banks will get fully into crypto." A good compromise is everyone leaves a little bit unhappy. Right. Right. But I I think what's going to happen is that after market structure passes, the banks are going to get fully into the crypto industry.
So, we're not going to have a separate banking industry and crypto industry. It's going to be one digital assets industry. And I think their opinions are going to evolve over time. And I bet you over time the banks like the idea of paying yield because they're going to be in the stable coin business.
But will they also be regulated the same way? And I I guess that's a big I mean the banks will say, "Hey, if they get to do all the same things we do, how come they don't get regulated the same way?" Well, I guess because they're offering slightly different products, right? So, but I mean, everyone offering the same product should be should be regulated in the same way.
And we want to get to that harmonization. If this bill passes in a way that drives competition rather than harming it and it happens by end of Q1, this market could be significantly higher in value. Altcoins could be significantly higher. I do not think people fully realize what is happening around crypto right now.
Everyone is staring at price action, getting distracted, saying things like they should have never invested in crypto, should have just put their money in gold and silver. When you start hearing that kind of talk, that is when you should get bullish. That is exactly when regulations are close to passing.
Institutional players are lining up. They have been telling us exactly what they are doing. They are extremely bullish on tokenization and stable coins. This is a great time to be locked in on crypto. I know some people say we should have exited a year ago. I disagree. I think right now is the best time to pay attention to what is happening in this market, especially the technology side.
I do not look at this as a bull or bear cycle. I look at it as a tech cycle, just like Kathy Wood described. Three revolutions colliding, a new global monetary system, a massive technology breakthrough, the birth of an entirely new asset class. The tech is not slowing down. It is accelerating. A lot of people are underestimating what is about to happen with crypto over the coming weeks and months.
Right now, it feels like nothing is happening, like we might only go lower from here. But we will look back at this time and say it was obvious we were going much higher. We just did not want to believe it. Hope you enjoyed this one. If you did, leave a like, subscribe, and turn notifications
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