저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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시장 유동성 긴축(QT)이 암호화폐·알트코인 약세의 원인이며, 연준이 12월 1일 QT 종료 후 12월 10일 금리 인하를 단행해 유동성이 회복될 것이라는 전망. 비트코인은 9만달러 초반에서 바닥 확인 중이며 9.36만달러 종가 돌파가 신호. XRP는 2.27달러 돌파 전까지 중립, 183달러 지지 이탈 시 약세. 진행자는 이를 근거로 12월 이후 알트코인 반등을 기대.
다듬은 글
that they will clear up within the next month. Um we we have first of all uh quantitative tightening ending on I I believe it's uh December 1st. Now many uh uh observers expected the Fed to uh end quantitative tightening with its last meeting. Uh it did not. That was a little unsettling to the markets.
uh and we're hearing from various Fed officials uh that there is more fear that inflation will not continue to unwind. We have a very strong view to the contrary. Um but the burden of proof is on us. Uh the in the indicators have been sticky. Tariffs are one of the reasons even though business has absorbed we think um at least half of the shock from from tariffs.
Uh so quantitative e tightening we think will end December 1st. The crypto market is finally starting to show some life again. And guess what? You probably caught that clip where Kathy Wood is getting super bullish about December being the real turning point for the markets. Pretty exciting stuff. Right now, I'm going to play the rest of that video clip for you later in this video, but first, let's dive into what's actually happening in the crypto world right now.
So, here's the deal with crypto. Yes, Bitcoin is back above 90,000, which is awesome news. And we're still sitting pretty with the total crypto market cap above $3 trillion. But here's what's got everyone scratching their heads. Most altcoins are still struggling. Take XRP for example. It's hanging around $2.18.
And people are asking, why aren't we seeing this massive surge across all cryptos? I mean, look at what happened with stocks. They've had this incredible rebound. The fear and greed index for stocks was sitting at a brutal 12 last week. It actually hit rock bottom at around 7 on November 20th. That was pretty scary territory.
But since then, we've been climbing out of that hole. We're now at about 24, which is still extreme fear, but hey, that's progress. And stocks have absolutely crushed it on this recovery. We're basically back to where we were on November 12th. Now, I've been saying we can't get too excited until we actually break through these key levels.
I'm watching the S&P like a hawk. If it can reclaim 6,870, that's going to be huge. That would give us a higher high and should put us right back on track to test those all-time highs from October 29th. This stock rally has me really excited, not going to lie. But here's the million-doll question. If stocks are doing so well, why aren't Bitcoin, XRP, and other altcoins absolutely going crazy right now?
What's the deal? Well, it all comes down to one word, liquidity. The crypto space has been starved of liquidity for way too long. We'll talk more about this in just a bit. Looking at where we stand today, we're slowly but surely crawling out of extreme fear territory. The overall crypto fear index is sitting at about 20 right now.
Keep in mind this isn't just Bitcoin. Bitcoin's fear and greed index tells its own story. But looking at the total crypto market cap, the good news is we're gradually working our way back up from that scary drop below 3 trillion. That's definitely a positive sign. Now, let's talk Bitcoin specifically for this weekly candle close.
The price action is looking pretty solid. We've got this nice weekly support level right around 86.6K. Here's the thing, we absolutely cannot close below that level if we want to confirm that we found our bottom. You know what's interesting? Looking back at March and April, it feels like we're in a very similar spot in the market cycle.
I'm thinking we need to give it another week or two and then we should start seeing a much bigger reversal on this chart. For this week's close, and I'm talking about Sunday's close here, there's one key level I'm watching. I want to see Bitcoin close above roughly 93.6K. If we can do that, it would be a fantastic signal that Bitcoin is about to reclaim a crucial support level that goes all the way back to 2024.
And once we do that, we should have a clear path back to those previous highs above 100,000. Now, I know everyone's excited, but this is going to take some time. We need to be patient here, folks. Bitcoin is still looking pretty strong overall. But when it comes to altcoins like XRP, well, we've still got some work ahead of us.
Most of these altcoin charts are still battling some serious resistance levels. XRP especially, whether you're looking at the 24hour time frame or the weekly chart, there's still some heavy lifting to do. But don't worry, we're going to break down exactly what to expect next. Now, let's get specific about XRP.
For the weekly chart, I really want to see us break above $227. That's going to be crucial. But here's where it gets interesting. The weekly chart tells a slightly different story than what we're seeing on shorter time frames. Our main resistance level that I'm really focused on for the weekly is way up above $2.40.
But on the 24hour time frame, that's where we need to start paying attention to the lower time frame structure and see if we can build some real bullish momentum. Here's the problem we're dealing with right now. XRP has been stuck in this bearish structure where we keep making lower highs and lower lows.
This is not the pattern we want to see, folks. We absolutely need to break out of this cycle because this pattern screams bearish action. So, here's what I'm watching with XRP, and this might surprise you. I'm not really focused on the weekly candle close right now. Instead, I'm laser focused on those daily candle closes.
Until we can reclaim $257 and then push through $269, I'm not going to get super excited about XRP's price action. We've got our work cut out for us. The name of the game here is simple. Higher lows, higher highs. That's what we need to see. Until that pattern emerges, XRP stays pretty neutral in my book.
As long as we can hold that recent low around $183. But if we lose that level, then we're flipping bearish. And that's not where we want to be. Now, here's something really interesting. XRP has actually been crushing it lately. Over the past week, XRP was one of the top gainers, jumping up about 17.5%.
Sure, it's pulled back a bit since then, but it was outperforming almost everything else in the large cap space. We're talking top 10 performance here. That's pretty impressive when you think about it. And why has XRP been doing so well? It's all about that ETF buzz. The ETF hype has been driving serious interest in XRP.
But here's the milliondoll question. If XRP has been performing so well, why isn't it absolutely exploding to new highs right now, why aren't we seeing it go completely crazy? Well, there are two main reasons. First, Bitcoin still hasn't had its full reversal yet. And second, and this is huge, it all comes back to liquidity.
Liquidity is absolutely everything in this market, guys. I came across this brilliant post on X from DPS that perfectly explains what's happening. He said, "Everyone's asking why XRP isn't moving. Here's the truth. The Fed has been draining liquidity through something called QT, quantitative tightening.
And yes, they absolutely have been doing this. When USD liquidity gets tight like this, risk assets really struggle. We're talking crypto, stocks, you name it. And XRP, well, it's lumped right in with crypto, so it's feeling that pressure, too. But here's where things get really interesting. The repo markets are flashing stress signals right now.
Banks are absolutely stretched to their limits. And guess what? The Fed is about to end QT. Now, they're not going to launch fullcale QE or anything dramatic like that. But ending QT is a massive signal for the markets to wake up. When that liquidity starts flowing back into the system, that's when things get exciting.
Here's what happens when liquidity returns. ETFs start accumulating faster. Market makers become super active. Risk assets absolutely rip higher and suppressed coins like XRP finally get their moment to break out. So XRP isn't late to the party. It's just caught in this macro liquidity trap right now.
But when the Fed flips that switch and liquidity comes flooding back, that's when XRP moves in a big way. And this is exactly why Kathy Wood is getting so bullish right now. Let's jump over to ETF tracker and check out what she's been saying. Get this. Kathy Wood just came out saying that this recent market weakness is going to pass as liquidity comes flooding back.
She's expecting the Fed to end quantitative tightening on December 1st. And she's calling this a de facto easing. Plus, she thinks they'll cut rates at the December 10th meeting. Her exact words. We think liquidity issues will clear within the next month that they will clear up within the next month.
Um we we have first of all uh quantitative tightening ending on I I believe it's uh December 1st. Now many uh uh observers expected the Fed to uh end quantitative tightening with its last meeting. Uh it did not. that was a little unsettling to the markets. Uh and we're hearing from various Fed officials uh that there is more fear that inflation will not continue to unwind.
We have a very strong view to the contrary. Um but the burden of proof is on us. Uh the in the indicators have been sticky. Tariffs are one of the reasons even though business has absorbed we think um at least half of the shock from from tariffs. Uh so quantitative eh tightening we think will end December 1st.
uh that's a de facto easing and uh and then the uh various uh liquidity tightening moves have to do with the Fed uh reducing its reserves. We're now now down to 6.6 trillion. Uh and at the peak I think we were close to 9 trillion. Uh the Treasury general account uh is at 940 billion. Normal over the last 3 years has been 600 billion.
So the Treasury uh because the government is shut down is building cash and not releasing it into the system. Uh the Fed has been very concerned about all of the easing and inflationary ramifications coming out of COVID and they still uh are are there although they have been easing. Interest rates have been coming down uh since late last year uh haltingly to be sure, but they are coming down um by some measures and we'll go through the charts.
Um uh while the Fed is easing, it is still uh quite restrictive. uh and so we need to hit that tipping point and we do think that uh the next Fed meeting which I believe is December 10th will be the next decision uh that the Fed will uh take interest rates down again. Listen, I completely agree with her on this one.
I really do think December is going to be a massive shift for the markets. And look, she's doubling down on this prediction. Kathy Wood is saying liquidity returns in December. Are you ready for this? She just gave us one of the clearest timelines we've heard in a while. That liquidity squeeze that absolutely crushed risk assets.
It may clear by December 10th, right when she expects the Fed to ease up. Here's what's really interesting. She's saying that ARK's Bitcoin bull case hasn't changed one bit. The only real pressure we're dealing with right now is macro liquidity, not fundamentals. Think about that for a second. Her key points are spoton.
Crypto is the most sensitive to liquidity shocks. But here's the thing, those shocks are temporary. Relief could be coming by early to mid December when liquidity starts flowing again. And historically, Bitcoin moves first when this happens. If she's right about this, and I think she might be, the next few weeks are going to look nothing like what we've been experiencing lately.
And it's not just Kathy Wood saying this. Almost every major player, JP Morgan, you name it, they've all been telling us the same thing. They expect the Fed to cut interest rates on December 10th. Now, cutting interest rates right after ending quantitative tightening, that potentially leads us straight into quantitative easing territory.
If we see that happen, the markets are going to go absolutely crazy. And looking ahead to 2026, it seems like liquidity is going to improve dramatically. Check out what we're seeing from the copus letter. This is some serious stuff here. Trump is saying he'll keep stocks at record highs. We're looking at $600 billion per year in Magnificent 7 capital expenditure.
The Fed is cutting interest rates while we have 3% plus inflation. Global AI infrastructure spending is hitting $1 trillion per year. The Fed is ending quantitative tightening in just 2 days. We've got US deficit spending at greater than 6% of GDP. Nvidia is now larger than all but five national stock markets.
That's insane. Record corporate buybacks of $1.2 trillion coming in 2026. Trump is saying he'll completely cut income taxes and promising $2,000 stimulus checks in 2026. How can you fight this kind of momentum? I mean, seriously. Now, let's be real here. Yes, there are a lot of promises being made. Are they all going to be kept?
Who knows, right? Nobody can predict that. And honestly, nobody really wants to try. But here's the main thing I'm looking at. If even half of this lines up perfectly, especially with what the Fed is about to do in December, markets are going to go absolutely insane. Let me show you something from Marty Party about why markets care so much about December 1st and the December meeting.
This is crucial stuff. December 1st is the date when the Fed will begin to stop selling securities off the government balance sheet. What does this mean? They stop draining liquidity out of the system. Liquidity that was added during COVID and the great financial crisis. When they end or sharply slow the Treasury runoff, it removes a massive technical seller from the Treasury market.
The Fed was literally the biggest single redeemer of maturing treasuries. This adds permanent liquidity back to the system. Every dollar they don't reinvest is effectively a dollar of reserves created. It's seen as a mildly dovish shift. And even though ending QT isn't the same as starting QE, it's still a huge signal to the markets.
It's telling the markets to wake up in a big way because it shows the Fed is shifting their approach. And here's what makes this timing so perfect. Stocks right now are less than 1%. We're talking less than 1% away from new all-time highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is significantly lagging behind, sitting more than 39% away from its all-time high.
At the exact same time, if we look at the dashboards and check Bitcoin dominance, this thing has been dropping significantly. I know it might not look obvious here, so let me jump over to the price chart real quick to show you guys what Bitcoin dominance looks like on the weekly. It's been looking very, very weak. This could be the perfect moment for altcoins to absolutely wake up in a big
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