저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 톰 리는 S&P500 연말 3025 목표를 유지하며 단기 변동성은 인플레이션 재점화 때문이지 상승 추세를 깨지 않는다고 보고, 비트코인은 올해 중반 2만 달러, 연말 2만 5천 달러를 제시한다. 시장 변동성 및 S&P500 목표 2018년 초 조정은 2017년 사라졌던 변동성이 돌아온 것으로 설명했다. 연말 3025 목표는 정적 PER에 이익 성장만 더한 모델로 산출했기에 유지 가능하다고 봤다. 2017년에는 변동성 감소가 인플레이션 둔화와 Fed 부담 완화를 통해 멀티플 확대를 뒷받침했다. 2018년에는 경기가 완전고용 부근까지 확장하고 임금 채널을 통해 인플레이션 선행지표가 오르고 있다고 짚었다. 비트코인과 주식의 관계 비트코인의 포물선 상승과 하락이 주식 조정의 선행 신호였다는 시각에는 동의하지 않았다. 두 자산의 기관 투자 중복은 거의 없고, 고객 중 주식 보유자 대부분은 암호화폐를 보유하지 않는다고 말했다. 비트코인 보유자는 미국 외 지역이 70~80%를 차지해 글로벌 보유 자산이라고 설명했다. 비트코인 시가총액은 약 1000억 달러로 S&P500 약 30조 달러와 비교해 매우 작다고 언급했다. 비트코인 가격 전망 비트코인이 이번 조정 후 향후 5개월 내 2만 달러까지 회복할 것으로 전망했다. 연말까지 2만 5천 달러로 약 3배 상승을 예상하며 암호화폐에 여전히 우호적이라고 밝혔다. 비트코인은 가장 중요하고 유동성이 높은 암호화폐 자산이라고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
welcome to trading nation on Eric Chevy today we're joined by Tom Lee he's head of research at fun strat Global Advisors Tom thanks for joining us here I got to get right into it you were known as one of Wall Street's biggest Bulls you've got this 3025 priced target for the end of the year how low do we have to go before you change your mind on that well you know it's been a rough couple of days actually a couple weeks and I think it's just a reminder that you know volatility which essentially disappeared in 2017 is something that we're starting to see come back I don't think it really changes where the market can end up by the end of the year because we're just modeling essentially a static PE plus some earnings growth to get to 3000 versus the start of the year so I think 3025 is still attainable what happened it just I feel like everything's just opposite a year ago going into 2017 everybody said this is going to be the year of volatility because of let's just say Trump that's gonna create volatility the exact opposite happened then all of the sudden the end of 2017 everybody said well we had a very good year without volatility that trends going to continue and then that's been completely dead wrong so why is the consensus just totally wrong the last couple years well I think one of the things that happened last year was with the economy running in expanding core inflation actually fell and that took a lot of pressure off the Fed so if you can imagine if you reduce inflation and volatility follows that lower it really supported an expansion of multiples and I think one of the differences this year is that we still have an economy that's expanding and nearing you know full capacity and now we're throwing some stimulus but on top of that it looks like signs of leading indicators of inflation are really picking up which is through the wage Channel and so I think now with inflation that's bringing back volatility and it is forcing investors to rethink the relationship between stocks bonds and and also volatility in PE when I look at this chart here the S&P it reminds me of a chart of Bitcoin over the last few months and I know there's some chatter out there saying oh it was the Bitcoin crash first that led into the stock market crush don't know if I buy that but can you walk us through what might be going on there if that's even a real situation yeah well you know in some ways in the past 12 months not only did we have a strong rally in equities we had a strong rally in crypto currencies and that did bring in quite a number of investors right yeah you know individuals opening coin based accounts and then institutions entering the market through futures and some actually buying coins outright so I wouldn't be surprised if those investors who saw risk on assets everywhere outperforming globally we're also buying crypto currencies and so I think as as Bitcoin began to weaken and and they D wrist it could easily look like a chart that looks like the SP because both had a parabolic moving and then subsequently gave back some of those gains but I think the connection between the two is really really limited so limited just like just psychologically or or there's different traders what does that mean limited well across the board I mean you know crypto currencies have their own economy it's based on activity on that blockchain equities have their own economy based on earnings per share multiples the institutional overlap is essentially zero you know our clients who own equities not even single digits like single you know mid-single digits even own any crypto so there's very little institutional overlap and when you look at the ownership of Bitcoin it's 80% maybe 70% outside the US it's really a globally held asset class so I I would say I think they're very limited plus consider size right bitcoins a hundred billion dollar market cap the S&P 500 is close to 30 trillion dollars that's less than one company on the market basically yeah that's not that much sighs but I want to get to Tom just real quickly here 86 60 Bitcoin we're seeing on the chart what's a target there you've got 30 25 for the end of the year S&P are we gonna see 3,000 I'm gonna say 30,000 Bitcoin by the end of the world where does this go Tom well we believe bitcoin will see 20,000 by mid-year so in the next five months a real recovery in price and then 25,000 by the end of this year so you know we see Bitcoin essentially tripling so we're you know we're still very constructive on cryptocurrencies Bitcoin is still the most important and liquid of those crypto assets all right Tom Lee that does it here for us I'm treading nation thank you for joining us table to everybody else we'll see you next time
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