저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
옐런 발언(장기 금리 추세 지속, 탈세계화 아닌 재세계화, 2023년 성장 2.5% 전망)을 해설하며 10년 뒤 주택담보대출금리 약 1.88% 하락을 예상하고 실물자산(부동산) 투자를 권유함. 역전된 수익률곡선이 2008년보다 1980년대 초 침체와 유사하다는 주장도 제시. 주식은 변동성이 크다고 언급.
다듬은 글
oh boy Janet Yellen just spoke I want to give you a breakdown of what she said but also a little sneak peek of some of the analysis we did in the course member live stream this morning oh my gosh cocacola Sherwin Williams you name it just the couple that we analyzed this morning we do a lot of analysis they can't get prices up now they're actively complaining that they're struggling to hold on to the price increases that they had in 2022 the only place they can brag about raising prices are in places like turkey and Argentina where you have basically currencies that are worthless and hyperinflation it's crazy it's just such a pisser what what's a pisser is that we know that the forward inflation is like not there the forward looking stuff we we had a lot okay the going forward stuff is not there but it's going to take so long for normal Americans to feel that most people are still going to go what do you mean forward inflation is has gone out things sound expensive to me that's most people unfortunately the longer what do you mean goes on the longer the fed's like well I'll show you then you don't believe inflation's going away I show you inflation's going away how do how does that feel in your stock portfolio you like that inflation huh like that's what it feels like so then you get jny Yellen who strikes like the totally opposite tone right this is the opposite tone so this is now remember Yellen is a figure of the Biden admin so she has to go from being the uh fed uh where they have a dual Mandate of Maximum employment and stable prices to now I'm Biden's puppet so there is something though that she said that I think she means outside of the political realm and that's what I want to talk about in this because it's what I believe now I'm not looking for confirmation bias but I want to be transparent about this I highly believe this and if you've been watching this channel for a while you already know I believe this she said the following quote longer term yield Trends are still at play so what does that mean well what that means is that with an aging demographic and capitalism that has led to massive Innovation okay all big words basically what's been going on for the last 40 years is probably still what we're going to see after we get through the inflation bump okay let me try to clarify that in a different way and the easiest way to do that is just by drawing a very very high tech photo okay if inflation since the Paul vulker era has basically done that then we printed money to the moon and we did this uh it should be about half as high there we go now we're seeing this it is entirely possible that this trend of continued disinflation continues potentially even deflation and that we are just right here on the ride of going back to that longer run Trend this is really interesting for a treasury secretary to say because to me it doesn't actually have anything to do with the Biden Administration today this is like the 10year out game plan which is he whoa whoa whoa look we got to be careful here because we are still in an environment where likely interest rates will be lower in the long term than they are or have been pre-co now that's crazy to think about because pre-co we were worried about the effective lower bound the elb the 0% oh my gosh if rates are zero how do we stimulate the economy if there's a recession well you could print a lot of money or you could potentially go negative but oh that could cause some real big distortions that's what Europe was fighting Europe had negative interest rates on their savings account before this crisis and it's so hard to think that oh my gosh you're right just four years ago we were dealing with negative interest rates we just printed money to Oblivion now that in my opinion reiterates why I say in 10 years mark your calendar for it and if I'm wrong I want you to tell me I'll still have beer with you whether I'm right or wrong I'm not going to go big ego or you know disappear if I'm wrong I'm going to do my best I think we're going to see mortgage rates at 1.88% in 10 years from now and I think therefore one of the best investments you can make today is hard assets yeah stocks to some extent as well but they're extremely volatile you should definitely diversify to real estate in my opinion not personalized Financial advice so I'm a big believer that right now I'm like how much real estate can for example you get your hands on because when that happens in the the future and rates go down to you know potentially lower than where they were in the past you'll look back in 10 years and be like oh hot damn I'm glad I got my hands on some real estate or at least you started laying the foundations now right maybe you take the new vers Pro courses maybe you invest in house Haack with the fundraise closing on the first whatever and you learn or you get involved in investing in real estate that's potentially that's my idea if you don't believe that the longer term Trends are in play that's okay again we can still be friends there are plenty of people who believe that what just happened with coid broke the longer run Trend they believe that this right here is broken the reason they believe this is broken is because of deglobalization that is the argument the idea is that okay well we are basically trying to get away from working with all these other countries because Supply chains broke during coid but now I think we realize wait a minute we're better off working together with other countries like for example Tesla in Mexico right that's an example of what we call friend Shoring and guess what Janet Yellen talked about today friend Shoring in fact she says look we're still overly reliant on China for clean energy but her visit to China she believes went extremely well and that we could build a partnership with China and that their GDP is probably below Trend while ours is above Trend and we can actually work together on on a strong economic future the problem is she believes China needs to get more involved and she's not wrong in helping us on the international front like Hello China where are you with beating up Putin and where are you with you know helping with Israel and Palestine nowhere to be found because wow they're worried about their own economy and their own people and problems instead but then I guess you could say we should too and it gets messy that's where you get political and really messy really fast but anyway point is what I've been saying for years years and I believe this is we don't get deglobalization we get what I call reglobalization which is okay we had so much demand we broke Supply chains how can we make sure that doesn't happen again by diversifying our supply chains but also by making them way more efficient this is why sales at asml exploded because all the chip manufacturers are like we need more machines just in case there's a rush to make more chips we can do it it's kind of like what you're seeing now with TSM where they're like we have endless demand for these AI chips we just can't make them enough for NVIDIA crazy crazy things to think about uh so this is still building out those Supply chains and that's why those h100s sell for like seven times the cost to manufacture them because they're so highly in demand and we just don't have enough of them but anyway I thought this was very interesting from Janny Yellen not only did she talk about these longer term yield Trends still at play I think that was probably one of the big p takeaways for me I'm like oh my gosh I can't believe somebody just said that like this to me is like that's that's been what I've been believing now you might be like well Kevin you're nuts and Janet Yellen for sure is nuts and that's okay but at least it's fascinating to see Janet yell and take that sort of point of view because nobody has taken that yet people have been afraid to say that because they think that's going to unancho Skyrocket which ultimately end up causing problems now I did listen to Christine lagard even though I covered some of this this morning I went back and I listened to her speech this morning she is confident that on the measures going forward inflation is on the right trajectory now when it comes to you know are they going to cut soon no but in terms of the trajectory she's pretty confident and Jerome Powell seems this way as well to where they're kind of like all right now we're just going to keep it here until basically everybody uh agrees that we've done enough the concern is are they going to overdo it and this has been the concern for years and the potential where we're now starting to see some higher default and autos and credit cards is that y'all going to go too far and then of course you have this idea that well what about the inverted yield curve Jan yell and has something to say about that as well she's like look the reason she doesn't think the inverted yield curve which I have not heard this argument before the reason she doesn't believe that the inverted yield curve the 102 yield curve actually signals a recession is because you're seeing long term uh yields and short-term yields rise almost equally in all developed countries but then people argue okay fine well then we're facing a global recession that is possible we could be facing a global recession totally possible so I wanted to fact check that a little bit I looked at the German bond yields and the curves we didn't actually invert in Germany back in the 2008 recession we had no inversion so maybe not necessarily wrong about that but look at this wait a second we barely barely inverted in the 2008 recession in a America right here see this little drop right below here barely an inversion now look at the inversion we had over here it's a cluster F minus 100 basis points it's basically like Paul vulker over here this actually was Paul vulker this was leading up this was sort of the first wave of Paul vulker this was the second wave of Paul vulker so it's really interesting it's like wait a minute the 2008 recession was really bad but the inversion was nothing now we got a deep inversion and and when did that last happen in the 80s but in the early 80s the early ' 80s recession wasn't that bad real estate didn't even go negative so it's kind of like what but anyway so so that's just what Janie Yellen thinks again we just have to kind of put our head hats on and go okay what whatever Janie so anyway uh she thinks that our economy is going to prove to have grown by 2 and a half% for 2023 she thinks Americans are worried about the economy but they still feel resilient she wants to see real incomes growing wants to see more people get into EV production and Manufacturing because she thinks there's a lot of money to be made there and for individuals to see growth in their real incomes wants to work with China uh doesn't see major potential risk factors from the uh Israel and Palestinian issues that we're seeing now uh this all happened at the same time as John Kirby was at the White House saying that Russian the Russian military is now executing soldiers who refuse to follow orders that's a totally different topic but anyway she believes that the econ will have higher yields for longer again the higher for longer that we've seen But believes maybe that's okay because the econom is doing better so all of this in her opinion cycling to the soft Landing narrative and I want to kind of zoom in to my thoughts on this and go okay all right Janet Yellen not a surprise there's definitely political bias there let's try to extract from everything she said what's interesting okay well one thing that's interesting is when we look at the yield Curves in 2008 wasn't that bad like I would have rather had the early 80s recession than the 2008 recession and we are looking a lot more similar to the early 80s recession via the inversion of the yield curve than than 2008 if somebody needed to tell me some good news I'll take that okay second thing this this argument about potentially going back to this long-term trend of declining interest rates I think it's really critical for us to consider that as we're building out our businesses going forward because if you're a business owner if you're an investor if you're somebody getting started if you're trying to get educated I think you probably want to think to yourself what can I do today to position myself to be in a great place in a low interest rate environment again if that is what we're heading back to what can you do now to set yourself up for that licenses business development foundation building I call it where do you see us being right and then of course if we are truly in this oh no everything's going to De globalize you know GE geopolitics are too hot rates are going to stay way higher for way longer I mean don't get me wrong it's possible rates are going to be higher for the next 2 or 3 years but I'm talking 10 years out right so again how can you milk the yields now to prep for what will eventually likely be an even lower yield uh in personally to me that's building businesses and expanding uh businesses around real asset-based businesses that's why I'm getting all the licenses I could get my hands on that's why we're building house sack and building out the teams so that we can create businesses that are going to flourish for the next 50 60 70 years right that's my goal I mean I'm 31 so I'm trying to look past these next two or three years because probably aren't going to be easy uh although I think once we have Peak rates set in uh we we'll start seeing a little bit more enthusiasm again in the stock market anyway there you have i house hack fund raise expires November 1st that's around the corner you can invest with a credit card debit card whatever is convenient for you email us at IR house.com if you have questions and now now the and this video shall not it is not a research report I personally operate and manage and actively man well personally operate an actively managed ETF uh and so therefore we could benefit from stonks going up and personally own stocks in that positive bullish biased world as well anyway how's that for a messy disclaimer people keep telling me to film it I'm like well it could change every time like I might have to show you the creeper you know how am I supposed to record that
Comments 0