저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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비트코인은 기술적 분석 고점(2017) 및 2022-23 지지 구간 언급 후 상승추세 유지 주장. 금이 S&P500 대비 강세이며 금의 M2 대비 수준이 역대 최고, 1970년대식 장기 정체 우려 제기. 비트코인은 알고리즘 매도로 금보다 부진하나 공급 고정(금 공급은 증가 가능)으로 장기 가치 주장. 과도한 공포로 인한 저평가 및 AI·디지털자산 초기 단계 강조. 주요 고점 신호에 대해서는 불확실성 표현.
다듬은 글
It's astonishing to me that some of the people that are so steeped in the research of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have defaulted to technical analysis as this move has taken place. Well, if you're a technician, look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017. So, that's kind of a marker.
There's also some support you can see there in the 2022-23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis with counterparty risk ala 08-09. That cannot happen to Bitcoin. So, and and definitely I encourage people to self-custody if if they want to hedge a bit against counterparty risk.
Cathie Wood addresses today's markets with an eye toward the future, paying attention to where innovation is leading the world economy rather than just what is happening right now. Her research focuses on disruptive technologies and how they intersect with blockchain, robotics, artificial intelligence, and genomic sequencing rather than relying on conventional valuation techniques.
Markets are frequently misinterpreted at times of fast technological development according to her. She contends that volatility is a reflection of ongoing change rather than necessarily a warning sign. Wood regularly draws attention to the fact that, although they may seem costly by traditional measures, innovation-driven businesses can be drastically undervalued when compared to their long-term potential.
Similar to the Industrial Revolution or the emergence of the internet, she thinks we are currently experiencing one of the most potent cycles of invention in history. For further updates on Bitcoin and the wider world of digital assets, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications before we go any further.
Thanks, and enjoy the video. So, now uh S&P will get to market indicators relative to gold. We're watching this one. It was such an important warning in the '70s that you know, the the S&P was uh was going to really have more than I think from '66 to '82, it went nowhere. It went down, but it really went nowhere over that time.
And we certainly don't want to go into a period like that, and we don't think we're going to, but we can't dismiss the fact that gold has been stronger than the S&P here. Uh even though the Dow Jones hit a record high, and I've heard that register with some people who are not in the market. Uh but to see this tick down is a little uncomfortable, I will say.
We do think, and I I mentioned this in my last In the Know that gold is over its skis. Uh if you look at gold relative to M2, never been higher. Uh it's higher now than it was even after the the '70s where we ended up with double-digit inflation and in the Great Depression uh where the economy collapsed and gold was uh gold was a source of safety until the government took it away.
Uh so uh so we will go with this one for now. And here is another uh we we have to acknowledge that gold has way out performed Bitcoin. Bitcoin has gotten caught up in this risk-off in a certain sense dynamic where you know, you're getting wholesale uh drops in sectors. No, you know, sell now, ask questions later.
It's uh certainly happened in the SaaS space. It's happened in the wealth management space, Uh it's happened in the trucking broker space. So, this like, you know, algorithmic selling in the market definitely has hurt Bitcoin because many people are not looking at to it as a store of value the way they are looking to gold as a store of value and and safety in a time of trouble.
Now, we don't understand that because gold supply growth is um we believe accelerating. Bitcoin supply growth cannot accelerate. Now, quantum computing, we talked about that. We talked about all the all of the worries that are going around in the Bitcoin community especially as the ETFs have gotten involved.
So, we we had newer holders, probably weaker holders, and you know, when they're confronted with those risks, they'll again sell and ask questions later. You can see though that the uptrend higher lows in a major way. Sure, we broke the one I guess from 24, but that that uptrend, general uptrend has not been broken.
And I don't think it will be broken. Now, could be famous last words, but you know, a lot of technicians are involved in the market right now. In fact, that's all they're doing. It's astonishing to me that some of the people that are so steeped in the research of Bitcoin and other crypto assets have defaulted to technical analysis as this move has taken place.
Well, if you're a technician, look where we are now and you can see that's where we topped in 2017. Uh so, that's kind of a marker. There's also some support uh you can see there in the 2022-23 range when Bitcoin was actually a refuge for those who were very scared of the regional bank crisis turning into a much broader financial crisis uh with counterparty risk ala '08-'09.
That cannot happen to Bitcoin. Uh so, and and definitely I encourage people to self-custody if if they want to hedge a bit uh against counterparty risk because we do have the ETFs now uh involved in um in ownership. Uh so, it's been grueling uh but it's also been uh I I don't love these periods because I worry about our clients.
Um we use these periods. We've been buying uh in the crypto space in our various strategies. Um but uh that this is the time where, you know, you learn about everybody's fears and I describe them in the last in the video and how we've addressed them. Um but you learn uh about uh other other uh developments in the crypto asset ecosystem.
She frequently brings out the important issue that algorithmic trading might exaggerate market fluctuations. These days a lot of trading systems are controlled by quantitative models that respond automatically to correlations, price momentum, and volatility spikes. The question of whether a company's long-term innovation story is still intact is not paused by these systems.
They merely pay attention to transient cues. Because of this, even when their fundamental outlook hasn't actually changed, stocks, especially inventive growth names, can drop precipitously. Her main point is that although volatility is unpleasant, it frequently occurs throughout a sound market cycle.
Disciplined investors who concentrate on long-term trends rather than short-term concern are typically rewarded by markets that climb a wall of worry. She believes that we are experiencing a generational change. Industry adoption of artificial intelligence is speeding up. To remain up-to-date on the most recent developments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the digital economy, please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications.
And um I have just gotten involved uh in an advisory role with a company called LayerZero, uh which is trying from a DeFi point of view, uh trying to go back to the future and not compromise the way uh the way Ethereum has and and other uh blockchains with layer twos and so forth, but actually go back to the future and develop an ecosystem for this new age, the Agenti- AI age, where there's going to be a lot of activity, you know, machine-to-machine,
uh that can uh handle two to four million transactions per sec- per second. Ethereum can only handle uh 13. Uh Solana maybe 2,000. Uh so, you know, it's very interesting uh that during tough times, the builders in this community are heads down, and so our research surfaces some of this new activity because our this new uh these new approaches um
because uh they're they're starting to talk more about them in the context of the way the DeFi ecosystem is currently set up. Uh So, lots of learning and I guess I'll conclude by by saying um you know, unlike the tech and telecom bubble uh this is the real deal. Unlike the tech and telecom bubble people are scared to death.
As a portfolio manager in the world of innovation I would prefer fear and climbing a wall of worry than the speculative excesses that we saw in the tech and telecom bubble. Now, you might say AI is going through that. That's been part of the the worry in the market. Uh we don't think so. We all the research we're doing
uh would suggest that we are in the equivalent of 1996 uh in in the technology or the internet revolution that was taking place back then. Uh very very early. And sure, it went into overdrive. It went crazy. But in 1996, that was the year that uh Fed Chairman Greenspan uh talked about uh irrational exuberance.
Uh and you know, that scared people because they thought he was going to tighten to curb speculation, but effectively he said he wouldn't do that. He'd let the market work. And we all learned a lot of lessons uh because of uh what happened after that. Um but, you know, most of this volatility is algorithmically generated.
Algorithms are not doing the research that we're doing. Uh and so, that is why we concentrate towards our highest conviction names. The market gives us that opportunity. Uh so, that's been uh uh uh the those are our comments around the volatility. Um and you'll remember last April during tariff turmoil, I was on here saying, "Look, we think this is temporary, what's going on in the market." Remember, there was a sharp decline, and a lot of people were freaked out.
Even the even investors who typically are very calm and and and used to volatility, uh they were shaken last year. Anyone who sold during that moment of drama uh regretted it for the rest of the year. The market has been up very strongly since. This market is climbing a wall of worry. Uh those are the strongest bull markets.
The volatility does shake uh people up, but frankly, this is so much healthier an environment than what we experienced during the tech and telecom bubble. Uh during that market, uh you know, Jeff Bezos could come out and say, uh you know, "We're going to lose so much more money because we're investing aggressively.
This internet opportunity is as vast uh and even vaster than we imagined." According to Cathie Wood, the S&P 500's performance in relation to gold is one of the most significant indicators she is currently keeping an eye on. According to her, gold's sharp outperformance of stocks in the '70s was a sign that the stock market was about to undergo a protracted period of stagnation.
The market fluctuated between the middle of the '60s and the beginning of the '80s, but it yielded relatively little actual return. She also discusses Bitcoin, which has performed worse than gold in this current risk-off phase. She contends that because many investors still see Bitcoin as a speculative asset rather than a store of value, algorithmic selling and widespread market panic have caused it to decline.
She emphasizes, however, that in contrast to gold, the quantity of Bitcoin is set and cannot grow. She thinks the long-term uptrend is still mostly intact despite the turbulence. In her final remarks, Wood claims that fear, rather than speculation, is what drives the current situation. She believes that markets are dominated by prudence and skepticism, in contrast to the boom of the late 1990.
According to her, we are still in the early stages of the digital asset and artificial intelligence revolution, much like the early days of the internet. Although volatile times can be challenging, they frequently present significant long-term opportunities for investors who are prepared to remain committed to innovation and structural change.
Please take a moment to like this video, subscribe to the channel, and enable post notifications for future Bitcoin, macroeconomic, and digital asset content. And as always, happy investing.
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