저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
첫 줄 결론: 2023년 인도 경제는 공급 측면 정상화와 강한 명목 성장에 힘입어 견조하지만, 고인플레이션에 따른 저소득층 소비 위축과 금리 환경 변화가 주요 과제다. [경제 전망] 수요 과잉이 인플레이션의 원인이었으며 공급 문제가 해소되면 인플레이션이 더 낮아질 것으로 봤다. 고인플레이션기에는 저소득층의 구매력이 가장 약해 소비 기반이 줄어든다고 지적했다. 오토바이·소형주택 등 하위 중산층 소비 확대가 예산안에서 중요한 과제로 제시됐다. [금리·저축] 예금금리가 약 7%로 오르면서 주식형 수익률(연 5% 수준)과의 격차가 부각됐다. 예금 성장과 대출 수요 흐름상 예금금리가 8%까지 오를 수 있다고 봤고, 이 경우 일부 자금이 고정수익으로 이동할 수 있다고 언급했다. 장기 투자 수익률은 연 12~15% 수준이라는 점을 강조했다. [리테일 투자자·증권 시장] 2020년 3월 이후 리테일 투자자 유입이 크게 늘었고, 2022년 시장의 큰 흔들림도 이들 영향이라고 평가했다. 2022년 수익률은 높지 않았으나 1~2년 부진은 자연스럽다고 봤다. 일일 거래대금은 약 4.1조 루피(410 lakh crore)로 사상 최대이며, 2017~2022년 거래대금이 약 21배 늘었다고 설명했다. 디지털 온보딩으로 브로커들의 고객 확보가 활발해졌고, 결제주기는 T+1(당일·익일) 수준으로 단축됐다. [거시 성장] 명목 GDP 성장률은 10~12%, 실질 성장률은 6% 수준으로 제시하며 장기 성장 궤도를 긍정적으로 봤다. [종목·자산 언급] 특정 종목이나 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Two things especially India, one from the economic point of view and one from the retail investors who have come, let's first talk about the economy, will our economy remain strong in 2023 as well or are there some big challenges in this type of thing, the Indian conjuncture now is that brother, this means what I hear is that supply side economics is being done, that is, wherever there is a problem, demand means here demand was excess and supply, so if you remove that, then inflation will reduce further and life of serials will become easy, but there are many segments where there is demand, if you have full supply but no demand, then what happens in high inflation is that the poorer people have the least bartering power, so this will be reduced in the slip, so if you want to run De Today Live, what happens in that, that gets finished and we are seeing that the different description below, be it motorcycles or small houses, so how will the lower middle class people build, increase the consumption base, this probably became clear in the budget, brother, that Every day the building demand from the debt side will stop, so you have high hopes from this budget brother, see it is a festival, when it comes we will see what comes, the rest is the game as per its own understanding, whatever I am telling you in reality, the government can do something, so what will we do, we should do that, okay sir, after Covid, since March- April 2020, there has been a huge storm of retail investors and if we have faced a full-sized storm in the market in 2022, then it is because of them, so till now money is being made or it has not become big, in 2030 retail will remain, data will remain and people will invest, what have you taken, till now no such panic call is being seen, sir, see one disappointment is that till last year the returns were made, but the returns were not very high, last year, so what is it that it is not so bad, sir, when one or two years are bad, see the returns made of 5, what does your earning mean, even if you add fixed deposit, it becomes the same, correct, but today the fixed deposit will be 7% and you gave 5% here So that is a tension, there is a little bit of fixed market in looking at the deposits and the way the deposit growth is and the loan demand is, it seems that perhaps the deposit and ₹50 will increase with each other, so what will happen to that, you will get like 8%, so that is your market, okay, you have got a 20 year withdrawal, we promise the same to people, but the ground reality is that you have got 5% in 12 months, then those who have deposits, brother, there may be a little bit of reduction in the increment flow and maybe people will move towards fixed income, this can also happen, this can happen a little bit, how will it happen, anyway, if I mean those who want to take less risk, then it is good for them to deposit some money for just four-five days and your long term was 12-15%, then people will say, brother, come on, we are doing this for those who are under, good in character, let's go, you are doing it, good mutual fund, is it right, from all this comparison, it got promoted very strongly.
Kuti class and digital onboarding has been done, so brokers have also worked very hard to bring customers, you see the turn and how much is the last day total turnover 410 lakh crores absolutely means it is a record in itself, I do n't know how much bigger it will be today, we are doing the same research that from 2017 to 2022, Fino's turn has increased by 21 times, this means currently it is becoming 200 crores to 400 lakh crores and only 20 brokers are left, so this environment has changed, the market has changed and participation is increasing, where is the currency of digital, technology from, tip plus T plus van settlement, zero defect, what does it mean, digital technology has done it, this in itself is a matter to be saluted and what will happen to it next, right now you are talking about three days and in economics you are talking about 30-35, you know the journey continues, see your normal GDP from 10-12% The value of Rupee is growing at 12%, the real economy is growing at 6%, so this journey means it is completely printed.
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