저자: Dylan · 외국인
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Dylan은 AMD 공매도 포지션으로 큰 손실을 봤다고 고백. 이전에 $200~220대에 매도 후 숏을 잡고 추가했으나 AMD가 사상 최고 수준까지 급등. 뉴스 없이 저거래량 랠리, 데이터센터 60% 지연/취소 우려 등을 근거로 숏을 유지했으나 틀렸다고 인정. 올해 수익은 Qs 대비 부진하며 당분간 트레이딩 중단을 언급. Michael Burry의 SOX 풋 포지션도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Stupid Guys Trade Stocks. I'm Dylan. And I'm Vinny. And I am done. I'm you know, I'm a little bit screwed. This is the worst trade I've ever had on AMD. Uh there's a bunch of comments. I wasn't going to respond to them. I was going to do this video and make this easier. Michael Burry, I'm assuming he's going to be losing an outrageous amount of money.
Um I don't know how much his position position sizing is. But we're going to take a look at what I did and how kind of wild this is. So, one, I I I broke one of my rules, um which, you know, I kind of deserve that part. And it's never sell a company that you truly believe in. So, I truly believe in AMD.
They shouldn't be at this value. That doesn't make any sense to me. Um but I sold them at about [sighs and gasps] between 200 and 220 cuz it was like it was like multiple times like multiple um profit taking. But I think my average is like 210 or 212 or so somewhere around that. Um so, basically, let me here let me get my arrow here.
This is where I sold. I then shorted here and added here. Okay? This is the If you're wondering, highest run-up in company history, I believe. Uh based off of if you're wondering, no news. So, if you look up why this is going up, there's a couple of different um things. One, this last day was because of Intel's earnings.
So, that's different. But this was because This is why I don't trust any of these articles, um cuz everyone would say it's because of the Meta partnership and all that stuff. That happened uh that was announced here. Where's my mouse? There we go. Yeah, that was announced here. So, it wasn't, you know, really because of that.
That was about 2 months earlier. Now, charting-wise, I can see why this is going to happen, but just the straight of war news, I think I fell into a negative news cycle, right? Where there's a lot of bad things happening in the world, um and the supply chain risk is go I mean, it's going to be a huge problem.
I also don't really understand how it's gone up this much knowing that 60% of their data centers have been canceled. So, that that's like a really weird one to me because I think it's we're up to 60% that are now delayed or just fully canceled. That's not including the OpenAI ones that are clearly going to be canceled because they're out of money.
We've talked about that multiple times. So, I clearly Huh? Sam Altman disagrees. Yeah, I'm sure he does. Um well, I'm to be fair, I'm also wrong, so there's that. Um so, yeah, I lost an out, you know, not not a good amount of money. Here's the weekly chart. Um It is really weird to see this rally on such low volume.
It's just not typically how stocks react. Usually when you go up and you break through historic levels, you usually do it on conviction, not on like the Qs, for instance, uh historically low volume, not minorly low volume. Um it is very weird. Here's Nvidia. I'm showing you Nvidia because the reason why I chose AMD, by the way, is because if you look at their chart, they usually have relative weakness compared to Nvidia when they go down.
So, like when Nvidia goes down, AMD usually goes down more. That's That was the purpose of choosing AMD and the fact that they have a significantly less cash flow to work for supply chain risks, whereas Nvidia has way more cash flow. So, like I wouldn't short Nvidia. AMD made a lot more sense to me because Nvidia can buy supply chain risk.
Nvidia or AMD really can't. Um but yeah, so that's just killing it. Um the Qs, again, I did a video on this. Historically low volume for this much of a jump. Pretty crappy. Um Uh you ever heard the saying that like stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down? Somehow stocks have been taking the elevator up recently or at least the escalator.
I don't really know how that's working though. think that the stock market even knows what down is. No. Um I did, bro. Here is uh Michael Burry's um newsletter uh from 3 days ago. So, he had bought January 2020s puts on the Qs. I also have those. Um my strike is a little bit higher than that. March 2027, he added to Nvidia.
Um and now he has puts on the SOX semiconductor index at 330, which is a new position. So, he's still thinking this is short. I don't have the bank that Michael Burry has, so um I'm screwed here. Uh it is what it is. This was a terrible trade. Um so, yeah, uh you know, we're full transparency here at Two Stupid Guys Trade Stocks, really really showing the stupid part of that.
It is it is a little bit of a bummer cuz so um when we did I'm going to small anecdote here. When we did the uh like our earnings like me and Vinny will always show our yearly end um and like we we we both beat the Qs this year. For me to beat the Qs, I had to go up 48% because half I had 30% of my entire in Robinhood is cash, so it goes against your percentage.
Then I had another 20% in TLT just for bonds cuz I don't know what's going to happen. So, for me to beat the Qs, I had to go up about I think it was 48% to hit the notch of Qs 22. And it worked. And I do that through trades. I'm I'm fairly active on swing trades. This is a horrible year for me. So, I'm going to stop.
Uh this it is what it is. But yeah, no more no more trades for Dylan. Dylan's done for at least a very long time cuz this is depressing. So, Although I was curious I had some questions for Dylan about this, so What? Um the the the fact that you're you're not closing out the position though. You're just going to let that last 25% of the value of this this book contract just rot, right?
For now. Um I'm down so much. What's more, right? You know, like I'm trying to do everything I can to not add to my short, which I know is stupid. I know it's a very undisciplined thing to do in trading because then you get locked in and it's a problem. So, I'm I'm really trying to do everything I can to not add to it because that short makes no sense to me.
It just doesn't. But it's I would I would rather be pretty wrong than very wrong. So, I I you know, I I would rather I'll be slightly sick to my stomach if AMD crashes in a month or something. And you know, I lost what I lost, but you can't ever do hindsight is, you know, 20/20, right? At least, you know, I I I traditionally I don't usually short these type of companies.
I love AMD. Um I usually short where I get most of my successful trades are shorting really shitty companies that are in a a news media frenzy like Lucid or Nikola or like that's where there's a a couple other quantum ones that I did. Rigetti I did a couple times. Those are my easily most success. That's my more successful area is I just find where I can literally cuz you can almost calculate, hey, I know how much free cash flow this company has.
I know when they're going to need to do a share offering. So, that's like the time in the stock market where it's not betting. It's I I know what it's I can see it. Yeah. So, I know you know, if I see one of those, I might take another trade. Those are usually how I beat the market, but I've Honestly, I don't Yeah.
It happens. If it makes you feel at least a tiny bit better, my my my main account is currently like 25% cash because I sold a covered call on my uh Russell 2000 like small cap index and I got it called away during that ridiculous rally, too. So, it was relatively, you know, small in comparison in terms of how much I lost out on, but uh you know, it happens.
Yeah, just put it this way. I will not be going positive this year. And we're at all-time highs. That's a problem. Yeah. Yeah, that's that's not good. So, I mean, I I've had a good couple years, but that ruined that kind of ruins the argument of, "Hey, just do the Qs." because Am I killing it for like multiple years in a row?
Yeah, but then if you f- factor in what this year is going to be, it's probably going to be the same. I probably should have not done anything. Yeah. Yeah, man, it's tough. Hey, it happens, man. This game is very humbling, put it that way. Yeah. Well, yeah, so anyways, I'm an idiot. Uh that's the only thing in the video. Thanks, guys. Catch the next one.
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