저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 혁명은 아직 초기(3회 중반)이며 기업의 AI 도입률은 5% 미만이라 수요가 가속 중이라고 주장. 하이퍼스케일러(MSFT·AMZN·GOOGL) 실적과 클라우드 성장이 강세를 뒷받침하고, 메모리 공급 부족 속 반도체·소프트웨어에 낙관. 한국 메모리(SK하이닉스·삼성전자) 변동성은 기회로 제시. 사이버보안은 3년 내 두 배 성장 전망. 테슬라·스페이스X 관련 장기 낙관 발언.
다듬은 글
The "Technical Spotlight " begins now. Dan Ives, Partner, Senior Manager, Director of Yorkville Ives, congratulations to Dan Ives on his new position. Hmm, quite fascinating. You will continue to cover technology. Just tell us briefly about the new company . Yes, Nicole, good to see you. And listen, I'm just so excited to, you know, do this kind of modern merchant banking at Yorkville Lives.
I mean, for me, this is really the fourth industrial revolution – the realization of the opportunities that we see in the market. I think now is the right time for me to do something like this, which is why I am so excited about this announcement and partnership. I know you said the AI is in the third inning.
Tell me more about it . Why are we only in the third inning? People should continue to invest in technology. You'll tell us about all your calls and all the big tech names. There is still so much ahead. Isn't that right? Yes. And Nicole, look at the profits from hypermarkets. It's about the growth of cloud technology, which has been huge from Alphabet to Microsoft, and what we've seen, especially with all the hyperscalers, and I think that just shows that the use cases in the enterprise sector are accelerating.
The reason I say this is the third inning is that only less than 5% of companies have gone the AI route. And this just goes to show that it's still early days in the AI revolution. I think the reporting season proved that. When I think about what's happening with monetization, let's talk about some of the names that have already reported.
I mean, we could start with Google, which showed demand, but the capital expenditure made people calm down again. Um, what do you think about Alphabet at this time? Listen, I think these companies... the reality is that it's an arms race, and the growth that you're seeing is huge because of Google Cloud, but the capital expenditure is needed to accelerate.
You know, they need to compete with Microsoft, compete with Amazon. You saw the reaction at Alphabet . You know, obviously it was pretty dramatic in terms of movement, but if you look at this week now, the narrative has really cemented what we're seeing from these hyperscale gains. I could argue that if Alphabet had reported this week, it would have been a different reaction than what we saw last week.
What do you think we will see? What kind of stock movement would we see from Alphabet if they reported this week? I think he would be much more reserved and potentially more positive because Alpha. But being...I think there was concern about what we would see from hyperscale earnings, now that you see more and more hyperscale companies reporting, it's clear that we're seeing in terms of overall demand that's taken hold.
So I think when you think about the end of this week in terms of earnings, you feel a much more optimistic view of tech earnings than you did before. continue to believe that Microsoft's quarter was truly a watershed quarter for the entire tech space. With Microsoft and Amazon, you know, because we had Microsoft and Meta, Meta was lagging behind you, we had Apple, Amazon; Apple was lagging behind.
So, let me talk about the two winners. And what we saw was what they were spending. Actually, you know, I was pointing out the 220 billion that Amazon said it was willing to spend , but Amazon saw the rapid growth of Amazon Web Services. Um, Microsoft saw rapid growth in Azure, which is the second pilot.
Tell me about Microsoft and Amazon. Are they still buying as their shares are rising this week, and why? Look, these companies are showing that demand is accelerating. And as demand accelerates, investors don't want to own these names. Want order for cloud storage and beyond? When you think about the second, third, fourth derivatives, it's a bullish trend for chips; this is a bullish trend for software.
And I think that's why Microsoft is so important in terms of what we've seen from an enterprise perspective, how things are evolving. Brotherhood replaces Tim Cook's Apple. You still like Apple. You think Apple is on its way to being a real winner in artificial intelligence. So far, it doesn't look like him.
Um, this is a $5 trillion company. I know the company has backed off a bit because it has supply bottlenecks at the moment, but why do you think Ternis can make Apple a real winner in AI in the future? And would you buy it today? You finally have a real strategy. I mean, the AI strategy is important in terms of the next step in Apple's history.
Look at the memory deficit. I mean, this is clearly a problem. This does n't just apply to Apple. This applies to others as well. But it's about the story of the rise of the iPhone and AI, and what it will ultimately look like when it all unfolds. Look, Ternis, he's getting the keys at a great time, with Cook wrapping up his historic, you know, tenure as CEO.
What about the Apple 18 phone ? I mean, you know, we've seen growth in just about everything. I, you know, Mac and wearables. I think only the iPad has fallen back a little, but overall there is a demand for the Apple ecosystem. Um, do you think Apple 18 will be anything interesting? Where is the folding phone?
Well, foldable devices probably won't come out until '27, but if you look at what we've seen with Apple, look at the turnaround in China. The turnaround in China is stunning. And I think now you're moving into what is really a multi-year renewal cycle. iPhone 17, I mean, and you talked about it, it was an unexpected refresh cycle that I think surprised investors.
And you still have 20% of the installed base who haven't updated their iPhone in three and a half to four years. What do you think about what happened in Korea? I mean, I'm used to volatility, but this was next-level volatility. I mean, you even had a hedge fund that ran into margin circles , you know, with SKH Heinix and Samsung and Cosby.
Cosby, when he dropped almost 11%, I think it was Monday morning. I mean, and then it dropped again the next day, maybe by eight. I mean, and then you had a meeting. What do you think about this? Because right now it's having its best day ever, and then you see SKH Heinix with record profits and 30% growth.
I mean, what kind of ridiculous volatility is this ? Is this too much? And what do you make of this? Does this open up the best opportunities? When you see a sale, you should jump in. Yes. Listen to what I'm saying, Nico, I mean, I spend money, you know, three or four times a year in Korea, so I know this market well.
Listen, they are the golden child of the AI revolution when it comes to memory. So memory is clearly the driving force behind this AI revolution . Now listen, am I thinking in terms of leveraged ETFs? And you've only seen the moves of Parabach and Cosby, but the broader sense here is that Korea as a market is going to become increasingly important to the global market, given what we're seeing with memory, given what we're seeing with chips, government.
You've obviously seen them trying to intervene and stabilize the situation, but this AI revolution is already in its third inning. And you know what? This is optimistic for Korea. This is optimistic for the membership. And I just think we'll get through these gut-testing moments. There's a lot of volatility, but I think investors just need to navigate and continue to focus on the winners.
So, so far, every name we've talked about seems to please you. Is that true? I mean, we talked about Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. Do you like them all? Yes, listen, they continue to be the main elements of the revolution. I would say, Nicole, to some extent, what you saw in the earnings supported the thesis.
It all comes down to numbers. But I just go back to when I was in Asia, you know, the last time I spoke, you know, 6-8 weeks ago, the supply and demand for chips was 12 to 1. So I just don't understand how you can be bearish in that environment given those kinds of numbers. And I have to imagine that you still like Micron because you just talked about memory being the foundation of this revolution.
So, I guess you like Micron. Uh, can you give me a quick yes or no, because I want to ask about cybersecurity and also Micron, and remember, you can name them on the fingers of one hand. So, you can argue about supply, but these companies will continue to be huge winners. Let's talk about cybersecurity, where you said that, um, cybersecurity could double in three years.
What names do you like? And my last question will be Tesla, SpaceX. So, a quick word about cybersecurity. Where are we going? Why? With the increase in the number of agents, the increase in surface area, and the expansion of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity will be...I think this will be a golden age for cybersecurity.
You look at the mob strike, you look at Palo Alto, you look at the major leaders, what they did. I think this is an industry that investors continue to underestimate. Last but not least , what do you envision for both Tesla and SpaceX? I think there is over an 80% chance that SpaceX will acquire Tesla by the end of next year.
Is Tesla currently going through a period of digestion? Yes. But they are building the physical infrastructure of artificial intelligence. And look, Rome wasn't built in a day. This won't happen either. But I think you can't talk about the AI revolution without M, Tesla, and SpaceX. Would you buy shares in both of these companies at current levels?
Listen, I just continue to believe that they are the main winners in terms of where we play. And if you believe in the AI revolution, then these will be key components when it comes to Tesla and SpaceX. You're not in a fully autonomous Tesla car right now, are you? I'm in the back seat of the car.
I'm in the backseat of a car in Chicago, trying to catch a flight to O'Hare. But then again , in a year, in a few years, it could be a robo-taxis. Good. Listen, you know, I had to make sure, you know, that you were careful. We, you know, are our valuable asset. You know, Dane Ies, you're a very popular commodity, and we want to make sure you're safe.
Thank you, Dene Ies. Thank you always. Nice to see you. Partner, Senior Manager, Director of Yorkville Ives. Thank you, Dene Ies.
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