저자: 미상 · 외국인
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10월 16일 금요일 고베타 기술주 대폭락. Jim Cramer가 헤지펀드 청산 가능성을 언급하며 AI 트레이드 압박을 경고. 나스닥 -2.4%, 반도체 ETF -3.7%, 소프트웨어 ETF -5%, 변동성지수 급등. 유가 약 99달러로 상승, 유로존 인플레 3.8%·미국 PPI 6.3%로 스태그플레이션 우려. 진행자는 20~29,000 지수 지지선과 SOXX·코스피 반도체주 하방 리스크를 지적하며 레버리지 관리를 강조.
다듬은 글
And with that, welcome to today's 10X Trading News video on Friday, October 16th. Today's trading day can be summed up quite well in one word, or rather, two words. Game over is the question. Today we are seeing extremely strong sell-offs in parts of high-beta stocks, particularly in tech stocks. It all reminds me a bit of the situation from July, when Leopold Aschenbrenner was liquidated with his hedge fund; Jim Cramer has also let loose with some interesting things today.
So let's get straight into the video today. Possible Scenario Margin Clerks thought they could margin out the wayward hedge fund over the course of the day, but then all spiked and they had to hustle to get the data center and friends positions off their sheets. This is meant to imply, and he already tweeted this a little earlier, that maybe we'll clean out this blown up hedge fund and start fresh on Monday.
So obviously something is really going on here today, in the sense that someone is being liquidated, possibly another hedge fund. That would be crazy, of course, if it went back in the direction of Aschenbrenner , although I personally do n't really believe that, but still very, very exciting. Let's take a brief look at this from the AI's perspective.
Jim Cramer warns of hedge fund blow-ups; forced liquidation is imminent. Yes, we can already see them today. Explosive speculation. Jim Cramer suspects that a severely distressed hedge fund is under massive liquidation pressure. He is explicitly speaking of a possible scenario, not a confirmed collapse.
Margin calls ultimately acted as the trigger. The rise in oil prices further exacerbated the situation and, of course, put the entire AI trade under extreme pressure. That's what he means by Data Center and Friends. That 's kind of his way of expressing it, that he's referring to the stocks from this sector.
The risk of further mechanical selling is therefore of course also present, but we must also remember that after the sell-off in July, when that was over, there was also a pretty aggressive rally in these very stocks. We'll see when it will start , whether this is already the low point . Today there was also a sharp increase in volatility, and that shouldn't be overlooked up there.
Just a quick word about the bots in Line. Should a large hedge fund actually be liquidated, the selling pressure could quickly subside after the liquidation . Exactly. Such a liquidation flash can prepare for a strong countermovement, but only once the selling has actually ended . That's exactly what we saw.
That was more or less the same day when it became known that Aschenbrenner, for example, had left Nibius, and then ultimately it was seen that these shares also rose massively. Bank of America also commented today. So everyone is really attacking the AI trade. Bank of America warns AI investment search.
So the stark increase in AI investments is starting to look like a cycle that could end in major collapse soon. So Bank of America is now pulling a Michael Burry impression and explaining here that the whole thing is a bubble that could soon completely collapse . I said in Discord today that we won't get any more ground signal .
Either someone buys it now or things could get really, really crazy. Here we also see the day's news, of course. Oil prices are rising due to Middle East supply risks. We now have the new contract as well. There was initially a small gap down with the contract, but now prices are at $99. That means we are now also closing the price gap from the previous month's contract rollover, and I am very, very curious about that.
It's impossible to identify a clear direction today. We have precious metals under pressure. Everything is suffering today from this explosion in the volatility index. In some parts, it was up 33% today; we saw it at 21 22. We are currently still seeing it at 20.5, but with a daily increase in volatility of 24% at the moment, and that is the biggest danger for next week as well, that the sell-offs may continue because the volatility has now jumped, and this kind of thing can continue.
I'm not saying I have to continue this, but it definitely makes sense to take another close look before the weekend at how I'm invested, where I'm invested, where I've been knocked out, where I still have a position, how I want to go into the weekend, and to prepare myself a little bit for the fact that this could be a very, very volatile market phase, and we also know that October is just as crazy as how it's playing out again this time.
Before the start of October, we talked about how October tends to be strong very early on, so it starts with a push and then can reduce its gains a bit. He has already done more than that. Of course, there's a strong sell-off right now, but we really need to be clear about that, we'll also take a look at it in the heatmap in a moment .
What we are seeing today is not a complete market crash. That's really quite precise, what's happening today. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 is up 1.2%. The Nasdaq is down 2.4 % today, double that amount. The Dow is holding up relatively well, down only 0.6%. The Russell 2000, which is also likely to slip into negative territory today, is down by as much as 1.8% of the DAX.
Euro stocks have actually held onto their gains. In Korea, the stock market rose by 2% overnight. That's far too little to stabilize the Kospi, and I'm a little worried today with this terrible Nasdaq session that the Kospi might also do things downwards again on Sunday night, triggering new ripple effects for next week, and that semiconductor stocks might then completely crash, but I don't want to jinx it.
We also have to wait; it could be one of those weekends where a news item could change a lot. I do n't want to speculate about that now either; let's just wait and see what happens. The price action we are currently seeing on a daily basis is wild enough. As far as tech is concerned, there was nowhere to hide today; we have Mac 7s down 2.4% in the ETF, semiconductor stocks down 3.7% in the ETF, and software stocks even down 5% in the ETF – things are really crashing today.
Cybersecurity is also under considerable pressure. Right now, we need to take a close look at what's supporting, what's being bought, what the market is letting fall, what we might want to let fall, and where the opportunities for a counter-movement lie when this sometimes brutal sell-off finally finds its bottom.
Among individual stocks, Nvidia held up best today, with a decline of only 1.5% (in quotation marks). AMD 5.3%, Broadcom even four%, which is very weak, one has to say. Micron is also down -5 today, which, as I said, worries me a bit for the next Korean session, but as I said, let's not speculate, the weekend could bring a lot, and I'd like to invite you all to the Big Tech Update on Sunday and then the Market Briefing in the evening, where we'll summarize everything that makes the current market so fantastic and, above all, so extremely volatile .
We can see the heatmap for the day, and I have to say, it's really brutal how things have crashed in some parts today , but there were also positive sectors. Energy was strong today, of course, also with the oil price. We saw strong performance in the defensive and consumer defensive sectors today, but I don't want to pretend there are any real safe havens here, because the options are relatively limited.
Something that 's a bit interesting, and what was also good today, is Lockheed Martin, which we also featured in the video recently; it's up another 3% today. In general, the entire aerospace and defense sector could become quite exciting. We will be covering this topic more frequently in upcoming videos .
I also want to make a longer video specifically on this topic . Here's the heatmap for the whole week, and it's crazy. What we see here is a truly divided picture. We have stocks that have completely destroyed you this week. A Dell -22% is the top performer that immediately catches my eye, but also a Palo Alto with -18%, a SanDisk -16%, an Arista -18%, but at the same time you also earned 7.5% this week with a Verizon and a TMUS, which bounced off the SpaceX news from last week.
You made 7% this week with one Starbucks. For example, you also made 7% with a Walmart. You were able to make between 4 and 7% in the healthcare sector this week. So, it's not a market crash, it's simply a highly aggressive and very, very heavy rotation out of AI, out of the data center and tech trade, and this may possibly be due to the fact that someone is really, as they say in Bavaria, currently raising some red flags.
So, for example, some hedge fund might just collapse and be heavily liquidated, but as I said, that can also be fertile ground for violent and extremely violent rallies. A quick look at the economic calendar reveals a review of the week with some brutally hot inflation data, some of which were in line but too high, such as the German figures at 3.3% or today's Eurozone figures at 3.8%.
Everything here is on fire. In Europe we really have a problem, because we simply do n't have the growth to even begin to counteract it , one has to say. We are experiencing absolute stagflation here at the moment. That 's really brutal. 3.8% headline inflation in the Eurozone. However, it must be said that the United States is by no means better in this regard.
They only have slightly more growth, it must be said, but that is primarily fueled by the fact that they have massive debt and this AI CapEx Cycle, which is also somewhat up for debate at the moment. And in that respect, one has to say that these hot figures are also playing a role. Yesterday was a classic bull trap when those ridiculously hot inflation figures were bought up by producers, and today we're simply steamrolling it with force.
We even saw a consumer price index with an upside surprise this week: 3.7% headline inflation in the United States, and now yesterday this 6.3% headline producer price inflation. That's ridiculous, one has to say, that's madness. And that's where we slowly but surely start talking about certain parallels to that double inflation wave in the 1970s.
You just have to say, it's crazy how this is playing out. I'll look at the latest analogy here on Friday, but when you see how exactly it's timed to run parallel to back then, it makes you feel a little sick, I have to say. I'm curious to see how the issue of inflation develops. This will likely be the pivotal point in determining how we can continue to face the market.
The economic calendar for next week is very manageable . The only thing to really highlight is Friday with the so-called Flash PMIs, the purchasing managers' indices for Germany and the United States, for the manufacturing and service sectors. Otherwise, as far as the economic calendar is concerned, the week is manageable, but of course you should n't make calculations without considering the bigger picture at the moment, because we have massive earnings next week and that includes everything we somehow need, including a little something from Macs, and a little something related to energy trade .
Interesting, one has to say, SpaceX is next week, Netflix is among those there, Tesla is not. Oh, Elon will be sweating this weekend. I'm curious to see next week if we might also see that, since we saw that crazy presentation of the Tesla model, which is supposed to be able to fly and is apparently going to be the fastest car in the world.
Absolutely insane, just look at the footage of that thing, how it roars off. That's absolutely wild. So next week, for example, SpaceX, Tesla, Netflix, Intuitive Surgical, IBM, AT&T and of course Bloom Energy. We certainly won't get bored, and the ten stock market videos next week are likely to be packed with content .
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So go directly to the video description and secure exclusive discounts on the regular conditions via the link through TenXTrading. CapTrader, your professional partner for stock market trading. And now let's take a look at the most important charts of the day. We've included the oil price, of course.
I have now marked the level of the contract change here for the current month. Yesterday's high was the worst close, then there was the gap down, but today there was an upward impulse and now we have almost closed this gap. But we can also pick up the $100, and we also have this combination up here that we talked about yesterday, this Cypher and Shark.
By the way, feel free to write to me in the comments. I've now removed the target zones from the scanner and left only the tags in . It should be much clearer for you now; the scanner no longer creates zones for me, but only tags, and therefore the chart is no longer so cluttered. You can adjust it yourself.
I would like to hear in the comments what you think of the design. Perhaps we can then actually release it as an update. So, it's just a matter of settings. If you're using the scanner here, just go down to where you can make the settings, and then you just need to set PRC-Fill to 0% opacity and Tag Background to 50%, and then it will look exactly like that.
It's just a matter of settings; you can replicate this on your own system when you're using the scanner, then you'll only see the tags. Like I said, I think it's quite nice, but I also know what I'm doing, so I don't necessarily need the target zones. Those who want to focus on the target zones can, of course, leave it as it is.
I think it looks a bit cleaner, and feel free to write in the comments how you prefer the look on your screens. We have Bitcoin and it's holding on somehow, I don't know, Sailor or whoever buys them, it's not me. I don't have any orders here at the moment, but someone is buying the 80k like crazy, and you have to say, hey, that's outrageous.
If you look at the individual daily values, oh, Bitcoin crypto, you and your crypto, you'll see. Well, what is it then? What? You really have to see it to believe it, but like I said, I don't want to do that at all, because it 's here tomorrow and there the day after, and then you're in for a rude awakening when volatility kicks in again, but the stability of Bitcoin and crypto in general is remarkable, especially on a day like today, when what many feared actually happened, and now we have it.
The volatility is there, the Vix has jumped from this level down here, which is simply a level where we can certainly see a Vix reaction , but we also see at the 21, 22, 23 levels up here that the reaction is there, which one would expect here as well . All this zigzagging around has created target zones here, and they are now reacting.
Volatility was then declining intraday, is at 20, so it initially shot up by a whopping 40% with this 8-hour candle, but is now coming back down from the high, and at the moment, come on, it's already coming down again by about 10%. But this is definitely the kind of market where we set a price alert at the top, just to know at the high point, oh oh, it's coming again, so we set a price alert here at 21, 22 and are being a bit careful at the moment anyway, because this is really free falling, you have to say, it's extreme today, it's a wonderful little ABC downwards.
The bulls tried yesterday, even managed to get above the 20-day moving average , a small doji at the peak, and then you get such a brutal hit today with the cell, and with that, the S&P 500 will now very likely close below the 50-day moving average, the current trading week, and thus it simply opens up what it also needed in September for the bottom, the 20-week moving average.
We don't have a real new high in between, meaning the 20-week line is higher here than recently, but it clearly has to accept the criticism . There was a minimal all-time high recently, but no real breakout. If we buy them again below the 20-week line, a correction will then be triggered, which can be compared somewhat to the behavior we saw at the beginning of this period.
I mean, it's not as if we don't already know this behavior , is it? I mean, it's not like we have a market that loses its 50-day moving average, then the 20-day moving average, and then you just have a correction. We know it, and that's why we have to look into it now. We've gotten a bit stuck, and we're still very early in the current pullback.
Either—and I think we have to be blunt about it— the market will hold this higher level at the 20-week moving average and then push towards the eight-week mark, where we still have our targets, or perhaps Bank of America isn't entirely right that this will end in a total disaster regarding this so-called " tech bubble." But you can already see that when the market becomes a bit top-heavy , I have to say quite clearly that the Nasdaq is also in absolute free fall.
We have this crab, and crab always indicates that there has been some exaggeration, but it's in quotation marks, which I like . I also posted this in the Discord today , exactly where we were, but he's pushing the zone down quite intensely again. Where we are is simply at this support level, which was heavily bought in September, but that's around 29 to 28.8.
This is really a level we need to monitor to see if it can hold, because of course one could then say, "Here's a big low, low, low is higher, higher high above , then go for it." OK. But it does n't get any easier here, I have to say. On the other hand, we have, that is this correction we experienced in July when Aschenbrenner was destroyed.
This is July. Or? It started a little bit here, then that started , then that went on, then that happened once, then that happened, and then that went up, and then that was over. It started off a little bit, then it happened once, then it happened again, and then it was over. Let's see if anyone buys anything here next week at this level of 29, level 29,000.
Someone needs to come and buy this market. It's not me; I can't so aggressively endorse this support here, because I simply say this sell-off is far too impulsive. This slightly higher high could be a nasty trap, or in retrospect, it's definitely a trap, so we just have to see if the market reacts here.
I would definitely keep an eye on the Nasdaq at 29,000 at the index level , but then I would primarily pay attention to whether the stocks I'm interested in are also at support and, above all, as we've said quite often now, keep an eye on market breadth . Don't just have your Irene, Nebius, Himms and some SMCI stocks and check these four stocks 30 times a day in absolute rotation.
That's nonsense, but really keep the market breadth in mind, because, for example, just as an example, we recently talked about a Lockheed Martin. Yes, and what's there now? The market is in flux. He always looks for some kind of safe haven, and there was a nice setup there, a 200-week line, and it's not just that.
There are plenty of stocks that have been performing well recently. That's one who's still pushing at the moment, and is now in the target zone. Perhaps this Safe Haven rally is happening now, or this flight into Lockheed Martin; perhaps there will be a sale up here, perhaps the rotation into tech stocks will return; we'll have to see.
It must be said that there have been stocks that have worked recently. Many things, and especially this AI-driven retail small-cap trade, have been completely destroyed. Let's briefly look at the DAX, which has just experienced a minor Gartley effect at the 50-day line and is currently struggling to cope with the pullback, as we are starting to fall below 25,500 again .
The sale is a bit too extreme for me. But I would still say the 20-day line, or perhaps we can even draw a trend here, right? Ah yes. Well, that's also heading in the direction of the 20-day line, 25,300, he'd better hold that and then of course we also need to keep an eye on things. We probably won't be talking about stocks today , no, we won't be talking about stocks today.
We're going to power through 20 things tomorrow. We have Big Tech on Sunday. I'm trying to make sure I get everything covered over the weekend, so that we really have everything included, including different sectors, so that we can look at everything . SOXX, if it wants to build a third higher low, then we've reached the point that needs to be bought.
Daily RSI 32, 8-hour RSI 25. Semi-terms are oversold, but the big question these semi-terms have to ask themselves, also with regard to the Korean stock market, is not whether there will be another 5% bounce here, which will then be sold off again, is that a bear flag and is that what we will see next?
That's the big question. This thing up here is tiny. It could even dip here to the 200-day line if it is aggressively bought. Anything that gets bought up here, makes a turn upwards, breaks out of the downtrend , then somehow attacks the 50-day line again and yet turns bullish, has the chance at any time that this could also be a bottom.
That 's so paradoxical, and that's why I think it's so difficult to understand, even if you don't analyze it yourself on the chart, because the situation is just so tricky . I would expect this area to develop in the direction we've seen so far, if someone actually comes in and buys it, because it's a correction, a consolidation over time.
It hasn't gotten hot in any timeframe , not even remotely. But the problem is, if the market really stops buying this stuff and we're seeing a kind of bearish consolidation, then it might not even be the SOXX, the most bearish chart of all, because a 50-week line would only be a dip below levels we saw in the middle of this year.
So, I wouldn't necessarily see the SOXX as being at risk of crashing, but the Kospi, meaning the Korean stocks and how the individual semi-cap stocks are connected to them, including the ETF, that's a question that depends on the individual situation, and therefore the entire sector is at risk, including software.
My God, this last high here triggered a sell signal, also for Now, for example, ServiceNow, which we will of course look at tomorrow, it also tried to go above the 200-week line, but was pushed down hard today. Software, a bearish engulfing from absolute hell with manageable volume, is the only thing that is naturally missing today, Friday.
We don't have an absolute solution today; it could also be the trigger that leads to a problem with software support. This sell signal here, this 8-hour candle, I definitely wouldn't underestimate today, because it really had some bite and we've now been pushed below everything that's important here , below both downtrends, below the steep one that was local, below the big ones since the all-time high of the IGV, back below the 20D, back below the 50D.
We've taken a lot of damage here, specifically below the daily lines . What might be happening is that he wants to test this big white downward trend again, and then somehow here, also in software, to say, maybe that's the top and we're going into a bigger correction. Here too, we're really approaching make-or-break levels, so let's just wait calmly for next week to see how we go into it.
And finally, and not about the frogs, I want to get one more thing off my chest, which is another correction that shows two things. With stocks, especially higher high-beta stocks, i.e., stocks that are likely to experience higher volatility, one simply has to pay close attention to levels in a market phase like the current one , but we know that, that is clear, that's what we know.
Levels, risk management, stops, and if you set them, setting them wisely, paying attention to support levels, but what's much, much more important to me is learning and understanding the difference between stocks that are the leverage in the portfolio and stocks that you can leverage when needed, or perhaps even should leverage when they present an extreme opportunity.
But as a rule, it makes more sense to leverage stocks that don't naturally perform well on their own, like when you add a turbocharger or nitrous oxide injection to a car that's actually quite boring. Then you have selective leverage; you know, okay, this is my solid car that I can drive, and I'm now consciously giving it a few more horsepower.
That often makes more sense than further tuning stocks that are already such highly sophisticated by design, which can then lead to engine failure. In other words, if you have an Airen, a Rocket Lab, a Nebius, or any stock, and it has now fallen by 20, 25%, 30% in maybe a week or two, then that is devastating, that is shocking, that is brutal, but it is not financial death.
If I have leveraged a Nebius, a Rocket Lab, an Airen, you name it, with a derivative, with a leverage of three or four, and I know that even wilder things are circulating, that position is now gone, regardless of whether someone gets liquidated today and tomorrow or on Monday, or rather, if a Nebius shows a 20% gap up because of this sudden relief rally, that's gone too.
And that's something you absolutely should avoid with stocks like these? Stocks that are extremely boring, that might be offering a dream setup at the support level of the 200-week line, can be sharpened up a bit. A stock that can already really shake up portfolios, and then leverage that even further, is the difference on days like today between, wow, my portfolio is down two and a half today, wow, that 's crazy, and a screenshot where you see, wow, my portfolio is down ten today, my year is ruined.
This is important, and everyone should be a little more aware of it. I say thank you, please leave a big fat thumbs up, tune in tomorrow and on Sunday for four videos: two videos of 20 or rather two videos of ten stocks, Sunday market briefing, Big Tech update, leave a like, subscribe to the channel, become a member and join the Discord, and now I'm out.
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