저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 그린란드 관세 위협으로 유럽이 미국 국채를 매도하는 '핵옵션(자본전쟁)' 가능성을 경고. 일본 국채 급락, 중국·인도의 국채 매도, 금·은 급등이 맞물려 미국 장기금리 상승과 스태그플레이션 위험이 커진다고 주장. 10년물 금리 상승으로 모기지 금리 상승 우려, 관세의 소비자 부담 강조, S&P500 이익 전망 하향 조정 언급. 자체 투자 플랫폼(House Hack) 펀딩 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
I I believe the markets are going down. You can't ignore the possibility that capital wars. Everyone take a deep breath. Do not escalate. Do not escalate. And President Trump has a strategy here. Hear him out. other side of trade deficits and trade wars, there are capital and capital wars. US dollar denominated debt at which is money.
And the those who need it, the United States, are worried about each other. Wow, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in full damage control mode, denying the market quote hysteria going on. Now, what hysteria is he talking about? Is he talking about the fact that the NASDAQ 100 Technologies Index is down 2% intraday, which is a lot for a one-day movement.
I mean, he's probably not talking about Tesla being down at 420, down about 4%. No, he's instead talking about what's actually happening globally. But the why is what this video is all about. See, Treasury Secretary admits that we just had a quote six standard deviation move in the Japanese bond market.
That's insane, mind you. Let me remind you of a famous five sigma or five standard deviation move. Remember Vlad, GameStop? Yeah, back in January 2021. That was a five sigma move. I I believe the markets are going down because the Japanese bond market had a six standard deviation move for the past two days.
Well, he seems to be responding to this Japanese bond market chaos, while at the same time our stock market is having a little bit of an intraday dumpy doodla. Gold is skyrocketing towards 5,000, silver is rocketing towards $100 per ounce. Treasury yields are jumpening in a bear steepener, and risks that the United States is about to hit a severe shock following a nuclear option coming out of Europe are all increasing anxieties.
See, Donald Trump and Bessent are right now betting that Europe cannot survive without the United States, and therefore they're subject to the whims of Donald Trump, and therefore his wills to acquire complete and utter control of uh Greenland. But Donald Trump and Bessent might actually be underestimating how much damage Europe can actually inflict on us.
And no, I don't mean militarily. Yes, I understand. Greenland's leader is now telling their people to prepare for a possible invasion, and even though they themselves say that this is not likely, they acknowledge that we just can't rule out that Greenland would get invaded. This war and this nuclear option has a whole lot more to do with money.
Money that affects everybody. In fact, Donald Trump just told us in his press conference that just ended moments ago that tariff refunds or dividend checks or stimulus checks to the people in 2026, quote, could be hard. A lot of it has to do with Greenland tariffs and the Treasury's market, because guess what?
America runs on debt. No, not Duncan. Debt. So, in this video, we're going to break all of this down, so you can see the links between all of this. You're going to see what the nuclear option of capital war means for the United States. What this actually has to do with Donald Trump's tariffs and the AEPA decision.
What this has to do with Greenland. What this has to do with Japan. And of course, what this has to do with the bottom line for your money and your investments. And yeah, spoiler alert, all of this is linked together, including why we're starting to see forecasts for S&P 500 companies, earnings forecasts that is, starting to come down.
That is, they're staying either stable or being revised down, which is reducing some of that optimism we went into 2026 with, where everybody was revising earnings estimates up. The opposite is now happening. This is a lot to break down here. It's going to take a moment, but sit back, grab a cup of tea or coffee or Kahlua, depending on the time of day it is for you or how you're feeling today.
And let's get started. Now, I do want to make a one quick note before we start. We are very briefly opening the window to invest in House Hack through February 16th. I am personally, and this is an announcement I haven't made yet. This is the first time I'm making it. I am personally going to wire an extra $1 million of my own personal cash into the fundraise between now and February 6th.
Mostly because of what I'm seeing with our AI development and the data breakthroughs we're hitting. I'm exceptionally bullish. Now, of course, I'm the CEO, and there's obviously risk with every investment, so make sure you read the offering paperwork at househack.com, aka reinvest, same company. In just the last 30 days, I'm pleased to report that we've raised over $10.8 million in just the last 30 days, which is absolutely insane momentum, and I think it's happening because frankly, people are diversifying out of the insanity that's going on.
But anyway, more on this later, and why there was a little bit of a delay, we'll talk about that towards the end, but right now we're reopening it between now and February 6th. That's just about two weeks. Now, let's get started. So, Bessent. Bessent says, "Listen, everything is fine. Be patient. Don't panic.
Trump has a plan. After all, Trump is coming to Davos tomorrow, so don't worry." But what's really going on here is not a prep for a war about American troops fighting Canadian troops or German troops or Swedish troops in NATO and the collapse of NATO. Of course, those things are being talked about and rumored about.
What this is really about is starting to fight with money, and the potential ramifications of Donald Trump weaponizing America's clout and status in the world for the gains of short-term America, short-term Trump and cronies, and the long-term deficit to America or detriment to America. See, if foreign countries, especially European countries, start selling US assets and shifting to gold or silver or dedollarizing, we might end up seeing US Treasury purchase start declining from foreign countries.
And not just necessarily new purchases declining, but also potentially asset sales. And these are things that we don't really want to see. And this is where we introduce what we call the nuclear option. The nuclear option is really post the Greenland ultimatum, where Donald Trump is threatening tariffs on countries like Germany or Switzerland or Finland or otherwise, in response to them not going along with Donald Trump's desire to acquire Greenland.
The response that Europeans could mount could be a dumping of US Treasury bonds, driving our Treasury yield up radically. Now, if you take a quick look at what's going on, and we'll explain this more in just a moment, but you'll see today the spread between the two and the 10-year is up 10% today, six basis points.
It is absolutely rocketed after this Greenland news. And if you look at the components of the Treasury market by clicking on bonds over here, you'll see that the 10-year is up about 6.2 basis points. But if you look at what's going on with the two-year Treasury, you'll find the two-year Treasury is unchanged.
Meaning almost all of this pricing pressure is happening at the long end of the Treasury's market. In English, the 10-year, which impacts credit cards, car loans, housing, all of it. So, we really have to understand why this nuclear option is problematic. But first, you might be thinking, Kevin, it's hyperbolic to suggest that Europe would conspire to start selling US assets.
Why would they do that? Well, that's why I'd like to point out uh some research from this morning. Take a look at this. The Chief Investment Officer for Public Markets at Alliance Global Investors, Germany's largest asset manager, says, quote, "If I were an advisor to some European governments, I would say you almost need to create a little bit of market volatility, because Donald Trump cares about that a lot, probably more than other politicians.
In other words, hey, you know, if US Treasury bonds fall in value, you know, big red day in Treasury markets and in the bond market, and Treasury yields go up, which is bad, that's more expensive, then maybe Donald Trump will wake up that what he's doing is pissing people off." Hmm. That'd be crazy, though.
I'm sure only one person is actually bringing that up, right? No. See, here, Head of Central Bank Strategy at Evercore ISI ISI argues that there could actually be a situation where you end up having long-term implications or long-lasting implications for the dollar and the Treasury's market as investors stop allocating to these, or worse, they straight up dump them.
Take a look at this. Here is a Danish pension fund. Remember, Denmark is the one that's really in control of Greenland now, and they subsidize Greenland's expenses by about 20% of Greenland's you know, budget. So, what you find here is this pension fund, which manages around $25 billion in savings for teachers and academics, held about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025.
Risk and liquidity management is the only reason to maintain or remain in Treasuries. And ultimately, quote, we decided we can find alternatives to that. So, in other words, if there are alternatives to US Treasuries, maybe it's time to start dumping Treasuries. And that's exactly what's happening at now a Danish pension fund.
Which now accelerates losses for people holding Treasuries and could lead to more Treasury selling. That becomes known as contagion. And that creates some really big problems for our pocket and our ability to actually run this country in the way we do. With nothing but deficits, debt. It's bad. Because guess what?
In order for us to be able to issue debt, somebody has to buy our paper garbage. If people don't buy our paper garbage, it becomes more expensive for us to raise money and the Ponzi starts breaking apart. Fortunately, if you have a rational president who drives a government with reason and central bank independence, usually people don't feel fearful enough to actually go dump their US assets.
I won't speak any more on that one. For now, though, take a look at this. I'm sure there are a lot of people that are fairly aghast at what's happened over the weekend with Greenland and probably thinking about how they hold their assets. In other words, hmm, why don't we buy gold or silver instead of US Treasuries?
In an environment where geo economic stability of the Western alliance is being disrupted existentially, it's not clear why Europeans are willing to be a part of this. Deutsche Bank global head of FX research, foreign exchange research. Investment by German firms in the United States nearly halved between February 2025 through November 2025 from 2024 compared to 2024, thanks to well, some of the drama that's been going on.
In other words, Donald Trump is slowly creating the death of the Treasuries market. Now, maybe this is all part of a grander plan. Sure I'm going to get a bunch of comments going, "This is the libtard take." Well, y'all know I look at this in terms of how it's going to affect your pocket. I really don't care what side you're on.
I respect y'all. But understand some numbers here. There are 9.2 trillion dollars of Treasuries that are outstanding held by foreign investors. That's about 30% of our total outstanding Treasuries. Europeans together uh hold about 8 to 10 trillion dollars when you factor bonds plus stocks. Okay? That's scary because remember, if they start selling bonds and they sell stocks, you impact both markets, the Treasury market and the stock market, when people try to get out of America or get on what's called the sell America train.
And I want to be clear, I'm a big fan of what I call train America. So, this is actually pretty painful for me to talk about because I'm a big fan of believing in America. But the opposite is happening globally, so I have to recognize that. Take a look at this. Currently, the top foreign holders of US Treasuries are Japan at $1.2 trillion followed by the United Kingdom, China, it's actually probably gotten a little bit lower from the time of this chart.
I think they're in the high sixes now. And you've got Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Ireland, Taiwan, and so on. Now, why does this matter? Because when you start putting together how much Europeans actually control just in Treasuries alone, you probably have over 3 trillion dollars of European exposure to Treasuries alone.
Now, why does it matter that these foreign countries hold Treasuries? Well, the issue is the Chinese and India have already been dumping US Treasuries at the highest levels that we've seen, frankly, ever. In fact, China just hit its lowest exposure to US Treasuries since 2008 and India is quote, amid the global gold rush, dumping US Treasuries.
You can see here China's latest holdings are as low as $618 billion, the lowest levels since the time the month that Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Now, the issue with this is it means China and India are just consistent slow sellers. But Europe holds nearly 3 trillion dollars of Treasuries that they could end up dumping on us if they really wanted to.
Now, do we actually expect they're going to dump everything at once? No. But consider this. Europe, which is now a subject of the tariff targets due to the Greenland issue, holds more in Treasuries, 2.7 to 3 trillion dollars depending on which estimates you look at, than all of Asia does. So, Europe is now the largest and most powerful Treasuries market outside of the United States.
That's because Americans hold the vast majority and American pension funds hold the vast majority of actual US Treasuries, but it's that outside that foreign risk that could drive real problems. And you might ask yourself, Kevin, come on. Really? Like, how much could Germany or Europe selling US Treasuries actually affect the United States market?
Well, there's a study on exactly this. I'm going to read it to you. It says the following. This paper shows that the price impact of foreign purchases or sales of US Treasuries is about twice as large as previously reported. And this is from a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper. So, in other words, there's this, you know, very large dark document, what is this?
I don't know, 80 pages or 56 pages long, where they essentially study the effect of other countries selling Treasuries or buying them. They estimate that a 100 billion dollar flow, that's 100 billion. I want you to understand for a moment, Europe, the block that we're targeting with these Greenland tariffs, has 3,000 billion Treasuries.
Okay? They estimate that just 100 billion dollars of flow, so a fraction of this, 1/30 of what Europe actually has, 1/30 of that, inside the 5, 10, and 30-year markets, end up moving the market, this is a big one, by 100 basis points. Now, our findings suggest that these foreign sales of Treasuries also played a critical role during the March 2020 episode of Treasury market turmoil.
Where even a small reduction in the dollar share of and that even a small reduction in the share, the dollar share of China's reserves, could have a significant impact on US long-term interest rates. So, there are a few things here. The first thing that we get out of this is we find that 1/130 of this Treasury market dumping in Europe could increase interest rates in America by 100 basis points.
That's essentially one full percent. Okay? Well, that's not great. We don't want to see interest rates uh go up by a whole percent. We're literally cheering about mortgage rates hopefully getting under 6%. But the problem is, if we keep going, we actually might end up seeing interest rates on houses get closer to 8%.
Simply via Treasury market dynamics. Now, it won't be in the very near term because obviously in the very near term Donald Trump is essentially manipulating the Treasury market and the housing market by buying up 200 billion dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities. This gets a little confusing, but think about your mortgage rate, uh we'll call it this right hand over here, as two components.
The Treasury yield and then a spread on mortgage-backed securities. When you add those two together, the 10-year and the spread, you get a mortgage rate. So, 1 + 2 equals the total, okay? Or A + B equals the total. That's That's your mortgage rate. Treasury yields are expected to move up if there's any selling in the Treasury market, especially by foreigners, by as much as 1%.
Donald Trump is trying to get those spreads down maybe 45 to 65 basis points. It's going to be more than offset by this drama he's causing with Europe. Unfortunately, and on top of that, that's only a temporary measure. See, Donald Trump's temporary measure doesn't account for the fact that once that 200 billion dollars has been spent on buying mortgage-backed securities, you've not only issued even more Treasury debt, but what you've actually done is just temporarily jiggered the market right before midterms.
That's probably just going to normalize, which means guess what? Rates end up sliding back or climbing back up anyway on top of the potential of Europeans dumping Treasuries. Bottom line is things get more expensive, which isn't great. But not only do things get more expensive and the very potential allies that we are targeting risk seeing even more dumping of US Treasuries.
You can see that here. Denmark, a primary target, they'd have an extreme interest in selling, followed by Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany, France, Netherlands, and the UK. All of them high exposure to US Treasuries. So, obviously for our rate market, Europe taking the nuclear option and dumping US Treasuries would be bad for interest rates, especially on mortgages.
But it doesn't just stop there. Donald Trump's injection of adrenaline into the stimulus, you know, into the mortgage market is only temporary. And they're raising debt to make that temporary stimulus happen anyway. And the more debt you raise, the worse you make the problem in the first place. This is all not good.
At the same time, Japan's bond market just had its worst sell-off in memory today. Part of that is due to the fact that Japan's Central Bank is trying to stir up inflation to promote growth in Japan to get them out of the deflation that they've been facing for roughly the last 30 years. And stocks, if you held them since the 1990s, finally just went positive at the end of last year.
So, people are excited about growth, but now they're concerned about inflation. So, you have the worst bond market sell-off ever in Japan. The problem is one of the largest holders of Treasuries is Japan. See how I said this is all going to link together? If Japan has a crash in their bond market, they might have to sell other assets to meet margin calls or just to rebalance.
This means that as the Japan Japanese market has a six standard deviation shock, and people all of a sudden need to raise capital to make up for losses elsewhere, they might have to reach into their US Treasuries pocket and start dumping some of those to cover losses elsewhere. Japan holds 1.3 uh $2 trillion worth of US Treasuries.
worth of US Treasuries. So, now if you look at Donald Trump raising more debt to fund stimulus for mortgages, which is just going to be short-term, but it's more debt, plus Europe dumping Treasuries via the nuclear option, and Japan dumping Treasuries potentially because of the bleed-over effects of oh crap, our market's having problems, you have a lot of pressure on top of already India selling Treasuries and China selling Treasuries, and other countries saying, "You know what?
We don't want to be exposed to threats from the United States anymore. We've had enough." And they finally and slowly wake up to saying, "You know what? We're tired of it. We're going to reduce our exposure to your paper money, to your fiat, and we're going to go buy real currency." And that real currency just happens to be up 3.5 to 6% today.
It's called gold, which is I think going to $5,000 per share, plus silver, which I think is going to $100 per ounce. I shouldn't say per share. So used to talking about stocks. So, now you can slowly start piecing all of the puzzles together. When you recognize that Greenland could lead to the dumping of assets of US assets such as US Treasuries, leading yields to go up, and Japan has its own issues, plus other underlying issues like de-dollarization concerns that have really been going on since, frankly, 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and countries are like, "Wow, we don't want to get sanctioned like Russia did." All of a sudden, you create this potential trend that might accelerate in a negative manner for the US Treasuries market, which is bad for your pocket.
Graphically, here's what that looks like. Between 2022 and 2025, Japan has been increasing its exposure to Treasuries. So is the UK. However, we're also seeing gold see increases in allocations, and China and India are reducing their allocations. If all of a sudden Japan and European countries start going negative in 2026, it really means there's absolutely no good news for the Treasuries market.
And some we're going into a stagflationary period of time, which might be exactly why gold is rising in the first place. In fact, if we look at the trend of the dollar and compare it to gold's performance, you can kind of start seeing some interesting stuff. First, the dollar has really been losing value since the liberation 1.0, so April Liberation Day.
The dollar was actually at a high when Trump got into office, but it's really started to drop, well, during the tariff warfare, but even recently, even though it's recovered slightly, gold has not only outperformed the dollar massively, but gold has outperformed the S&P 500, which is remarkable. Why could that be happening?
Well, one of the reasons could be because central banks after COVID realized that countries are just printing money to get through short-term pandemic-related shutdown, and so what happens? All of a sudden this little green pie right here, which is central bank buying of gold, has become much more than a small little sliver between 12 and 15%.
We're now at 22, 22, 24, and growing as a percent of Fed or central bank buying of gold. Which means even the central banks are like, "You know what? We don't want your paper money anymore. We're out." And all of this creates the risk of stagflation, where the Federal Reserve keeps rates higher for longer.
People keep dumping Treasuries, rocketing up yields because there's a lack of buyers. Eventually, if the problem gets bad enough, much like in 2020, the Fed is end the ends up being forced to buy Treasuries by printing money, increasing the debt even more, increasing long yields even more. That, all of it, creates more of an interest burden on companies in America, slowing growth, slowing hiring, and again, leading to that gold rise because people say, "Well, if stocks are going to go risk-off, and growth is going to go risk-off, and currency is risk-off because, well, it's getting inflated away, where can we go?" Bitcoin is certainly in a risk-off moment, just lost $90,000 again.
So, people go to precious metals, gold, silver. Some people are starting to speculate about copper. So, all of this is related to Donald Trump's tariffs and Greenland. But where do we actually stand right now on Greenland and tariffs? Because see, this is also quite interesting. Donald Trump appears to be setting up for the plan B on his tariff move.
See, Donald Trump, I believe, thinks he's going to lose his IEEPA tariffs. IEEPA tariffs are really a workhorse for Donald Trump because he could just sign an executive order and say, "Hey guys, we're doing tariffs." The IEEPA tariffs, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, are wonderful for a person like Donald Trump because you just snap your fingers and you get tariffs.
People absolutely love it in the Trump administration. Problem is, we need a plan B because the Supreme Court might dump on IEEPA tariffs. So, what's a good one? Hmm. How about national security? You know, national security because maybe Russia and China are going to attack Greenland and we need to defend them.
Or national security because we need the critical minerals on Greenland. Or national security because we're going to build the golden dome in Greenland. Notice how all of a sudden, in the framework of Donald Trump losing the IEEPA tariffs, we could start realizing that Trump is really fighting for Greenland potentially to preserve his plan B on tariffs, national security.
And folks, that seems to be exactly what we're seeing. The Tax Foundation put together a piece that argues that Donald Trump's next strategy is likely to be Section 122 tariffs. These allow you to institute temporary tariffs in response to large and serious US balances of payments deficits deficits.
Great. 15% tariffs here. Now, in order to use those tariffs more than 150 days, you need congressional approval. So, we won't use those after 150 days. We'll just jump over to Section 232 tariffs, which are, you guessed it, national security tariffs. And they usually take about 150 to 270 days to actually implement because the Commerce Department has to study the implications of that.
So, now all of a sudden we can start putting the piece of the puzzles or the puzzle pieces together, and Donald Trump's messages about war start making more sense. Take a look at this message from Donald Trump, which came in response to, well, these messages now shared by the New York Times. Dear Mr.
President, dear Donald, on the contact across the Atlantic on Greenland, Gaza, and Ukraine, and on your tariff announcement yesterday, you know our position on these issues. We hate them all. But we believe we should all work to take this down and de-escalate. So much is happening around us where we need to stand together.
We are proposing a call with you later today. Give us a hint as to what you prefer. All right. Donald Trump's response. Given your country has decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped eight wars, I no longer feel an obligation to think truly or purely of peace. Now this is interesting because Donald Trump just had a press conference and in his press conference he said that he should be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for each of those eight wars.
So he should have been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize not once, but eight times, one for each war that he claims to have stopped. I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be predominant. But now I think about what is good and proper for the United States of America.
Denmark cannot protect land from Russia or China. Ah, interesting. Because isn't that exactly the plan B on tariffs? National security? Even though we have the Dutch navy telling us, "We don't see Russian or Chinese aggression in the area." But remember, facts don't stand in the way of what Donald Trump wants.
And why do they, that is Denmark, why does Denmark have a right of ownership anyway? There are no written documents. It's only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago. But we had boats landing there also. Yeah. That's um something the Native Americans might have a comment on given that we landed three boats in uh {quote} "America" to uh colonize.
But anyway, I've done more for NATO than any other person since its founding. And now NATO should do something for the United States. The world is not secure until we have complete and total control of Greenland. Huh. Interesting. A groundwork to minimize the impact of the Supreme Court's ruling. Now I personally believe that the Supreme Court is intentionally delaying the tariff ruling so that Donald Trump can get his act together for how to respond to minimize the fallout of the IEPA tariffs getting rejected.
I believe Donald Trump knows the IEPA tariffs are going to get rejected. As a result, he's ramping up all this pressure on Greenland, which just recently started happening as the Supreme Court decision came closer. Hm. That seems to align not just with market behavior, but also flows into gold. Take a look at this.
China gold market update. December demand rebounds. Chinese gold ETFs have witnessed inflows for four months in a row ending 2025 as the best year ever with gold assets under management up 243% or $35 billion. Ah. Holdings more than doubled. And gold futures volumes reached their highest volumes on record.
The People's Bank of China has announced gold purchases every month in 2025 ending with 27 trillion additional purchases pushing China's official gold holdings to 2.3 trillion or about 8.5% of their reserves. Huh. Interesting. So the more Donald Trump is hunting for tools for more tariffs, the more we're seeing people shift to gold and other assets because people say, "You know what?
I don't know what the impacts of all this crap are going to be, but I'm out." And so this is where we really ought to start thinking about the impact to us as individuals. Obviously, I think at first we're going to see mortgage rates come down. I know this sounds ironic because the 10-year Treasury yield is moving up, but my opinion is we're going to see mortgage rates come down in the first quarter through primarily mortgage-backed security manipulation.
I think that this kills Fannie and Freddie going public because they're going to have massive amounts of debt. This unfortunately leads to a rebound back up in mortgage rates in the second half of the year. This means as a practical investor in real estate, I believe the worst time to buy real estate could be the first and second quarter of this year because you'll have that temporary manipulation of rates coming down, but there'll be so many people competing for few properties on the market, you'd actually ironically see prices go up in the short term.
But I think we might end the year with dramatically higher rates, which could take that enjoyment of a little bump in real estate appreciation away. Now, that doesn't mean I think there's going to be a real estate crash or collapse. I don't think all of Europe is going to turn around and start dumping all their Treasuries immediately, but I do do think there's going to be this gradual desire to say, "You know what?
We're done with America. We don't want the dollar. We don't want to buy any more of your Treasuries. We don't want to keep funding your debt. We're done. We've had enough." Unfortunately, that's going to lead the Fed to stay higher for longer, which isn't great for people taking on loans. Now there are other impacts as well, cars, credit cards, and stocks and quickly explain what happened at House Hack.
So first of all, we own a lot of real estate. We own over $66 million of paid off real estate. Uh we've got over $21 million ready to go. What we're investing in heavily right now though is our real estate artificial intelligence. So while we're still offering the 5% yield through conversion, or least I could happen is obviously Jan 27th.
While we're still making this offer, while we've extended the window to February 6th, which I'm going to explain why in just a moment, we're going heavy on developing artificial intelligence, which right now we're able to do in a way where it's not really burning cash, which is great because we're generating revenue from it by selling our artificial intelligence.
We released it on time as we promised. We promised to release that artificial intelligence in Q4 and we did. December is when we promised to release it and we released it in December. So the sort of 1.0 beta version is out. I'm seeing what the next version is going to look like based on the data that we're using and the AI that we're training.
And I personally am so excited. I'm like, "I start looking around. Where do where I got some extra cash lying around?" Because I'm personally going to wire an extra $1 million into this very round of my personal money into this company because I'm so excited about what I'm seeing with our artificial intelligence.
So yeah, we are this little invest button. We are extending it through January 6th. Actually January 6th, February 6th. The reason we're extending it through February 6th is because A, we've got a lot of people who are trying to fund from retirement accounts and frankly, the last like three weeks we had a lot of inflows coming in and we feel like, "All right, yeah, a lot of people signed their agreements on December 31st to meet the deadline." But the broker-dealer was so overwhelmed they didn't get approval to actually send money until frankly like the last three weeks.
So money's just kept trickling in over $10.8 million in just the last 30 days. I'm like, "That's cool." But there are other people who've wanted to invest and I don't think it's fair that they didn't get to invest just because they didn't sign on that day, but then it still takes three weeks for the broker-dealer to to sign.
So we want to make that clear, more clear this time. We're going to extend that to February 6th. And in response to that, I am now personally committing to a $1 million investment during that same little window that we're leaving open. Now previously, I was thinking I was going to invest like maybe $100,000 or something and I'm like, "I'm going to ramp that up a lot." And it's also just a way to indicate that confidence and also a way to show to you that I'm really excited about this, but I also want to apologize with how long it takes to process people's broker-dealer apps.
So we want to be more clear. If you press that invest button, obviously read the solicitation, there's risk with every investment. But if you press that button, it could take a little bit of time. Hopefully it goes a lot faster to get that approval, but it could take a moment to get approval. Uh so that way uh you could fund and join the round and then we could finally seal the door on February 6th.
Okay. Now, let's go back to visualizing the costs for Americans and what all of this stuff means for us. Look, we already know that tariffs are expected to cost the American taxpayer money. We believe that uh well, according to Goldman Sachs and of course according to the Yale Budget Labs uh estimates, we believe that tariffs cost the American consumer, well frankly, somewhere between 80 to 90% of all the tariffs that are collected.
So when Donald Trump cheers and says, "Hey guys, look, we collected so much in tariffs." Just like the Tax Foundation talks about. That's great, but really what this is when Donald Trump shows off this chart of tariff revenue climbing and this massive growth of tariff revenue above and beyond what we've previously done, what he's really saying is look how much I taxed the American consumer.
And that's frustrating because it shows up in everything. It shows up not just in direct costs because it's now more expensive to go buy electronics, furniture, food, or auto parts. Like I was trying to check out the other day on a Ubiquiti camera. You know, they're 179 bucks. And I go scroll over here and I'm like, "Tariff surcharge, what the heck?" You know, that's like a an 8% or 10% or whatever tariff surcharge.
And current estimates are that the tariff impact that was believed to hit in 2025 got delayed because a lot of companies built up inventory. But as those companies have to go rebuild inventory and buy new inventory at higher prices, that's when the real impact of these costs are going to hit us. And so that's where it's not just buying stuff, but it's also that burden of higher interest rate expenses that are going to increase our borrowing costs.
Consider higher mortgage payments. And I don't think this is going to cause a real estate crash or whatever, even though you know, we're really focused on real estate AI, which we think is really insulated from this anyway. You know, we don't have any bank debt on our properties. It doesn't matter to us.
But for normal Americans, this is painful. And gold skyrocketing signals the stagflationary risk where all of a sudden mortgage rates up, credit card rates up, auto loans up, small business loans up. As all of this goes up, it becomes more expensive for you to be able to go and buy things. This is why there are estimates that tariffs are really attacks on the consumer of anywhere between $1,500 a year to $4,900 a year that disproportionately affect the lower end of the bottom 20% of Americans, effectively reducing your impact anywhere between 2 to 4%.
But it really affects everybody's income, which sucks. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump's Greenland threats, we actually think we're going to get more tariffs, not fewer tariffs. So all of this just increases costs and burdens from carpets to rugs to metals to screws to hardware to leather goods to apparel goods to clothing to furniture, electronics, glassware, tableware, parts, coffee, tea, whatever.
I got bags of tea over here. You know, everything gets more expensive because of this stuff. The Greenland issue not only makes stuff more expensive, but it also increases the risk of the nuclear option of foreign nations dumping US Treasuries, leading to higher costs to borrow, not lower costs to borrow.
And when you link all of this together, it all makes sense. Bottom line, Trump is about to lose his AEPA tariffs, so he needs a national security argument. He makes an argument for Greenland, pisses off all of our allies in Europe, and then they join in dumping American assets along with Asian countries, whether it's India or China or whatever, who already are.
And now all of a sudden the whole world is not suddenly and in a coordinated manner trying to burn the United States because that would be like ripping off your nose to spite your face, right? It's like you hurt yourself by doing that, taking these big losses. But saying, "You know what? We're just going to buy less.
We're just slowly over time going to become a little less allocated to America." And that unfortunately is bearish. And I believe that's why we're seeing this increase in the 210 spread, which unfortunately, the 210 spread has been rising at a level of 0.7, we're starting to approach what I call shock uh Well, we're we're in shock territory, right?
We're shock prone after we're above 50, but we start approaching guaranteed recession. Guaranteed recession is when the 210 spread hits 1.25. So if you look at the 210 spread, jump into CNBC Sizzle, for example. Uh it doesn't seem to be loading right now. But anyway, when you jump in to look at the 210 spread, you can see historically, when we get up to 1.25, we're almost always in a committed recession.
The recession of COVID, the Great Financial Crisis of 2007, 2008, and the ramifications in 2009, the dot-com bubble in 2000, the early '90s crash, uh and then of course other examples if we zoom out more. But this for now gives you enough of an appetite to say, "Hmm. Yeah, Kevin, might be on to something here." Anyway, this is one of the reasons why I personally am diversifying this extra cash.
As excited as I am about saying I want to go buy the dip in the stock market or whatever. Wow, uh almost exactly at 6:07, which is crazy. Uh that's why I want to diversify and take this extra million dollars and throw it into House Hack. And so wow, look at that. This e potential that you could get some trade euphoria at the beginning of the day, and then a drop to 6:07.
We're within a dollar of that 6:07 line. And if we lose this line, we're going back to 595, and we end up completing that wedge pattern correction all the way down to 577.24. The question is, does the pain stop there, or does contagion lead to layoffs? Anyway, if you want my Alpha report, go to meetkevin.com.
You can get lifetime access to all my fundamental analysis. This morning we analyzed Amgen and all of my trade alerts anytime I do buy or sell in the trading portfolio. Also, make sure to check out the AI, the artificial intelligence at reinvest.com or househack.com. As we release this next feature, the valuation AI, as that comes out, we're going to massively increase the price of this and probably get rid of the lifetime option and start going towards a um monthly or quarterly billing cycle. , folks. .
Comments 0