저자: CharlieMunger/WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
가치투자 원칙은 시장과 국가를 가리지 않으며, 주식을 사업의 일부로 보고 충분히 싸게 살 때 투자하면 된다. 중국 시장은 투기적 과열과 급등락 가능성이 커 기회가 많지만, 버크셔식 가치투자를 따르면 더 나아질 것이다. 금융 규제(도드-프랭크)는 위기 시 연준·재무부의 신뢰성 있는 대응력을 약화시켜 위험하다. 코카콜라 등 강한 브랜드는 장기적으로 살아남는다는 취지의 과거·장기 견해가 주를 이룬다.
다듬은 글
if you're a young investor and you can sort of stand back and value stocks as businesses and invest when things are very cheap no matter what anybody is saying on television or what you're reading and perhaps if you wish sell when people get terribly enthused it is really not a a very tough intellectual game it's a very it's it's an easy game if you can control your emotions and let try Charlie says that he think we've talked about a little bit that the Chinese market may be more there may be more speculative influences in it even than in the United States because it's a relatively new development and it may lend itself to Greater extremes and that should produce great opportunities Charlie yeah well there's great opportunities for excess and you nasty contractions out after unnatural boom booms and so on I I think China is is wise to damp and the specula booms and and I think the Chinese I don't think the value investing will ever go out of style who in the hell doesn't want value when you buy something how can there be anything else that makes any sense except value investing it never gets that popular though people are looking for an easier way yeah and and that's a mistake it looks easier but in fact it's harder and there's a lot of misery to be obtained by misusing stocks yeah nobody buys a farm to make a lot of money next week or next month or they buy it get an apartment house they they buy it based on what they think the long-term future is and if they if they get a if they make a reasion calculation of that and the purchase price looks attractive they buy it and then they don't get a quote on it every day or every week or every month or even every year and that's probably a better way to look at stocks investment principles do not stop at Borders uh so if I were uh investing in China or any place else India UK Germany uh I would I would I would apply exactly the same sort of principles that I learned from the intelligent investor I would think of I would think of stocks as a small piece of a business I would think of investment fluctuations being there to benefit me rather than to hurt me uh and I would uh try to focus my attention on businesses that I thought where I thought I understood the competitive Advantage they had and where they would what they would look like in five or 10 years so I don't think I don't think I would change the principles at all I'm not sure I got all of the question Char maybe Charlotte can elaborate on the rest well the Chinese have a history of being very entrepreneurial and of gambling very heavily when they have the opportunity and it has created great volatility in the Chinese stock markets and when things get bouncy and prosperous like our internet craze here in the United States China looks a lot like Silicon Valley I think China would be way better to be more value investor minded and less absorbed in waves of speculation so I think if they the more more China copies the way Berkshire operates I think the better it'll be for China yeah there's a there's a certain irony and that we will we would do the best over decades if we operated in a market where people operated very foolishly and the more people respond to short-term events and exaggerated things or anything that causes people to get wildly enthus II asically enthusiastic are wildly depressed actually is what allows people to make lots of money in Securities and on the other hand it's not the greatest thing for a society and uh Charlie and I have benefited enormously by the fact that over a 50-year period there have been a few periods probably the most extraordinary being 1973 and 74 where you could buy stocks unbelievably cheap cheaper than happened in 2008 and 2009 and you know it it doesn't make sense to have that much volatility in the market but humans behave the way humans behave and they're going to continue to behave that way in the next 50 years generally speaking there is still too much risk in a lot of high finance and the idea that DOD Frank has removed it all permanently is nonsense and and people like hanging on to it you know trading derivatives is a principle if you're shrewd it's a lot like running a bucket shop in the 20s or a gambling parlor in the current ERA and you have a gambling parlor that give a proprietary Edge in and and you say it's sharing risk and helping the economy and so forth that's mostly nonsense the people are doing it CU they like making money with their gambling power and they like favorable labels instead of unfavorable labels so I think there's still danger in the financial system and I also think our competitors don't like it that they deserve regulation and we don't and I think there's danger in that too yeah one thing that may not be I haven't read much about it but my understanding is that Dodd Frank actually we weakens the power of the of the fed and to some extent the treasury too to take the kind of actions they took in 2008 primarily uh and those Powers were needed to keep our system in My View From really going into utter chaos the ability to say and have people believe you when you say it uh that that whatever needs to be done will be done uh has resided in the in the Federal Reserve and with the Central Bank European Central Bank and the fact that people believed when Hank Paulson said that the money market funds are going to be guaranteed that stopped a run on 3 A5 trillion of money market funds that had lost 175 billion in deposits in the first three days uh there back in September of one week uh if that if people hadn't believed that you would have seen that 175 billion turn into a trillion very quickly I mean the the system would have gone down so the when you have a panic uh you have to have someone somewhere who can say and be believed and be correctly believed uh that he or she will do whatever it takes uh and you saw what happened in Europe when dragi finally said that and you saw what happened in the United States when Bernan and Paulson more oress together said it and if you don't have that uh panics will they will uh accelerate like you cannot believe you know in the old days the only way you could stop a run on a bank was basically for somebody to come and pile up gold I mean they used to raise it to the the branches that were having a problem I remember reading the history of the Bank of America on that and how they would put out runs before the Federal Reserve existed and the the only thing that stopped it was to pile up gold I mean if the CEO of the bank came out and said you know our basil 2 ratio is 11.4% the line would just lengthen I would not get the job done gold got the job done banki got and pulson got the job done but the only way they got it done was saying we're guaranteeing new commercial paper we're guaranteeing that the money market funds won't break the bank you know we're we're going to do whatever is necessary I think DOD Frank weakens that and I think that's a terrible thing to weaken cocacola sold more cases of beverages last year than any year in their history and they'll sell more this year I mean it it it's uh a strong brand is really potent stuff I mean take hin ketchup or something of the sort it's 60% brand share in the United States but it's much higher in many other countries so you'll always have the fight between the retailer and the brand and the retailer is going to use all the pressure they've got and and therefore the brand has to stand for something in the consumer's mind because in the end the retailer may want to shift to to a house brand uh private label but and they private labels have been around forever in the soft drink field I mean I I can remember when I was looking at cot beverage and all of those and thinking you know what will it do to us I remember when when uh Sam Walton sent me the first six-pack he told me it's the first six-pack of Sam's Cola 20 years ago and believe me w w has plenty of power but so does Coca-Cola and the the brand you've got to nourish them you know you've got to take very very very good care of them they have to stand for the promise that's in people's mind about them but a lot of people have tried to I I don't know how many dozens or maybe hundreds of cola beverages there have been over the years uh RC Cola you know they came up with the first diet product back in the early 60s and uh uh that looked like a big big maneuver Wilkinson came up with a blade back in the 60s after Gillette and uh but Gillette ends up with 70% by dollar value worldwide of razor blades after 100 years so there's all you've got to protect a brand you've got to enhance it in every way you've got to get a promise in people's minds that gets delivered that way but that's the question Charlie and I faced in 1972 when we looked at at C's C's was selling for $1.95 a pound Russell St was selling a little cheaper and he had to decide how much damage could a Russell Stover do if they came after seas and they copied our shops and all that sort of thing uh if you protect a brand if you got a terrific brand and you protect it it's a fabulous asset but you'll always have trouble dealing with Costco and Walmart and the rest of the guys Kroger and you name it you know they're they're they're they're tough too but the great Brands Will Survive the great retailers will do well Mr Buffett after all these years of interviews and meetings what is the one question that you've never been asked that you would like to answer now well I can think of the question I haven't been asked but I'm not sure I want to answer it now it I I I think I've been asked almost all of them and um and many uh many of them Time After Time After Time Charlie do you have anything that you're just dying to be asked well this lady will first tell us the worst thing she ever did in her life those secrets are not Paulo I wish we could help you if you got another question you'd like to throw at us yeah I could I could ask you another question good can I buy you lunch I think she's talking to you Charlie he always wins saw in the movie he always gets the girl yeah I'm so heavily involved with those girls in the movie I just don't have room on my list thank you Paula yeah
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