저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 1971년 이후 금(35달러→약 2,700달러)이 구매력을 유지했다고 보며, 귀금속 보유를 권한다(특히 플래티넘 저평가 언급). 미국 재정적자와 국가부채(36조 달러 초과)가 금리 부담을 키워 통화 발행→하이퍼인플레이션 위험이 있다고 경고. 자산 인플레이션(주택·주식)은 정점에 가까워지고 소비자물가 인플레이션은 가속될 것이라 전망. 가계 실질 소득 악화와 부의 불평등 확대를 지적. 금은 시장 변동성 속 안전자산 수요로 주목받는다는 내용.
다듬은 글
the price of gold until 1971 was at $35 an ounce and now it is around close to 2,700 so in my book actually gold has kept its purchasing power you know the price of bread is not up as much as the price of a gold of ounce as an example but but the price of insurance premiums is up may be more I don't know is that though I think that people should own some precious metals there is absolutely no justification for running a $2 trillion deficit in a year when the economy was strong and inflation remained a challenge this sharp policy reversal is striking considering that in 2023 Congress enacted legislation projected to reduce the national debt by $1.3 trillion over a decade by contrast 2024 saw an increase of $1 trillion in projected debt over the same period such fiscal decisions underscore a lack of consistency and raise concerns about the long-term economic implications of unchecked spending the incoming Administration set to take office next week faces a daunting fiscal landscape with critical decisions on spending Revenue policies and legislative priorities budget reconciliation Government funding debt sealing negotiations and expiring 2017 tax law extensions are expected to dominate early discussions these challenges arise as America's federal debt has surged past $36 trillion a staggering figure that now exceeds the nation's entire economic output this unprecedented debt reflects Decades of fiscal policies marked by Relentless spending on entitlement programs military budgets and emergency measures during economic crisis the growing debt raises concerns about the government's ability to manage its obligations and puts pressure on future economic growth amid this financial uncertainty gold prices have reached record-breaking levels as investors flocked to Safe Haven assets with gold spot prices surpassing $2,468 per ounce in 2024 the market has demonstrated a strong bullish Trend driven by economic instability and diminishing confidence in traditional dollar backed instruments central banks have significantly ramped up their purchases of gold bullion bars signaling Rob institutional demand that retail investors are likely to follow renowned analyst Mark Faber's analyses predict continued upward momentum with projections suggesting gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 or potentially sooner if current trends persist we present the clips of Faber's insights from his recent interview before we continue to discuss this please subscribe to our Channel and activate the Bell icon for timely updates well I mean you see when I grew up I remembered very well what the price level was in Switzerland and when I go back to Switzerland now I mean I live in the north of Thailand I can compare the prices that exist now with the prices that existed in the 50s and 60s and then I look at the price of gold the price of gold until 1971 was at $35 an ounce and now now it is around close to 2,700 so in my book actually gold has kept its purchasing power the price of bread is not up as much as the price of a gold of ounce as an example but but the price of insurance premiums is up may be more I don't know so so I think that people should own some precious metals I like now Platinum I think Platinum is a relatively depressed and in a bull market for precious metals it can go up but what I wanted to say about gold I don't think that gold is that cheap but then I look at the whole financial system you see when I started to work on Wall Street the market capitalization of the US was just 25% of GDP now it is close to 200 about 170% wow and the whole bond market in America was less than a trillion dollars was around $900 billion and now you know how big it is I don't even want to guess like trillions like yes I mean you can't imagine what is the number then I'm saying to myself can we determine whether gold is expensive or cheap According to some statistic I could say that gold is not expect expensive according to others I can say it's expensive but I can do the same for say I look at the price of soybeans wheat corn sugar and so for is it expensive or cheap it's more expensive than before but it's still depressed relatively speaking compared to other prices that went up much more the problem I want to explain to you and your viewers the problem of monetary inflation is that it distorts everything everything becomes very murky you it's very difficult to say is my house expensive or cheap because of monetary inflation and then there's also the fiscal aspect suddenly the government in their in its ultimate wisdom and we see it wisdom how they handle the fires in Los Angeles this is now a good example of of government's competence it's a complete disaster what they've done anyway what I want to say is in monetary inflationary times when the government issues more and more money it becomes very difficult to determine I'm wealthier or poorer because everybody soon will be a billionaire it will be a billion like in uh Zimbabwe you can do the following calculation you could essentially measure GDP growth this year as I said it's already a figure that needs some adjustments about the rate of inflation but let's take GDP growth of say 3% and then we measure by how much has the government debt increased if the government debt increases more then the 3% then you could I could argue it's all been essential financed by the government this grow and is this sustainable now the modern Theory monetary Theory Economist they will say Debs don't matter the other day there was a crown on TV financial advisor of course and these attacks don't matter well in the US they began to matter now because the interest expenditures every year are over trillion dollars and they're not going to come down for the foreseeable future because interest rates aren't going to come come down meaningfully for the foreseeable future so you end up in a situation where the government or the FED will have to print money so that they can pay the interest on the debt and then you are in a death spiral a death spiral hyperinflation and that is uh what every government every society has done in history to tell people you know you have to tighten your bels we have to cut your pensions uh is politically in the Democracy not acceptable I wrote a report why in democracies we'll always have more inflation the other option is you go to people and say look we've been spending too much then we've been living over our stands of living so what we have to do is to increase taxation they do it to some extent already on homes to maintain a house is becoming more expensive in the US because the insurance premiums are going up and in some areas like in in Los Angeles now the insurance company stopped insuring insuring against fire because they were afraid that the government is so incompetent a lot of people lost their homes without an insurance I don't insure my homes either but this is a risk I can take in my life and you can see I have a lot of books huge collection and so forth I can't ensure this anyway yeah and you know in life we have to get used to the fact that one day we go somewhere else and we have nothing at all US inflation likely worsened last month month fueled by Rising costs of Essentials like gas eggs and used cars complicating the Federal Reserve efforts to ease monetary policy the bureau's Consumer Price Index a vital measure of inflation surged 2.9% in December compared to the previous year up from 2.7% in November and a recent low of 2.4% in September the uptick in inflation is Raising concerns that it remains stuck above the fed's 2% Target which has caused treasury security interest rates to rise pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages car loans and credit cards despite the fed's attempts to lower its key rate Mark Faber critiques how mainstream economic discourse overlooks the real struggles of ordinary people while Financial media Outlets like CNBC and Fox News focus on macroeconomic indicators they often fail to address how Rising living costs affect everyday consumers Faber predicts that inflationary Trends will continue with with Consumer Price inflation accelerating in the coming years as asset inflation slows a correction in stock market valuations is expected still the more pressing issue will be the rising costs of goods and services which will continue to strain households particularly those with fewer Financial Resources let's get back to the interview we are in recession I mention that monetary inflation distorts many things MH the fact that gross to 70% of households live paycheck to paycheck tells me that the economy is weak in real terms you understand your salary goes up say 4% but your cost of living goes up 8% so are you richer or poorer definitely poor yes and I'm not exaggerating Ordinary People are struggling But Ordinary People are never interviewed on CNBC and on your program and on Fox News and so for they have no voice so the elite can tell the public oh the economy is doing well this is the problem of monetary inflation it creates huge wealth inequalities and concentration of wealth I mean I don't know whether I told you already on the last time I was on your esteem show but there is a book and it was written by a professor I mean he became later a professor but he was working in the re Finance ministerium in Germany between 1918 and 23 and he wrote the economics of inflation the author is Constantino Bano Toni I think you can see yes yes the economics of inflation yes and he describes the impact of monetary inflation on everything on stock prices on the foreign exchange on the gold price and uh on society and on the concentration of Industries during high in monetary inflation uh concentration of Industry takes place and there fewer companies but more powerful companies and what then happens is complex but if people are really interested in the subject and I can't talk here on a program in three minutes about the complexity but this is essentially uh what happens in and it's explained in capitalism uh socialism and democracy by Sho this is a difficult book to read but it's very very uh detailed and in it there is one speech it he gave it in 1949 a few months before he died to the economic Club in New York and he described and that is easy to read he described how capitalism will inevitably lead to socialism inevitably because the rich people actually like socialism because the Socialist can be bribed you can pay off the Socialists there are two aspects to inflation that I need to clarify most people say that when stocks go up we are in a bull market for stocks when the prices of homes go up they sell we are in a bull market for homes but when the price of potato tomatoes and the chicken and now notably eggs at the present time egg prices are close to an alltime high or in some region they are at all time house they say this is inflation every price increase is a symptom of inflation and the cause of that price increase are fiscal deficits and money printing in some cases more fiscal deficits and in some cases more money printing orose but whether the price of a house goes up or the price of of eggs or beef or corn it's a symptom of inflation of excessive monetary expansion period the FED never considered asset inflation we're talking here about two things in one case the money that the fed and the treasury print flows into assets and the prices of assets go up we call this asset inflation and then in other cases it froze into Goods like agricultural Commodities food and into services like insurance premiums the Federal Reserve by the way based on the Bureau of Labor statistic has health care prices going down for three years in a row I don't know anyone in the whole world that pays less for health care than three years ago yeah yeah as a complete fraud what the Bureau of Labor statistic publishes fraud I've seen insurance premiums they went up by 100% in three years the readers of my report they send me these things they showed me the insurance premiums went up 100% in three years the Federal Reserve bases its assumption about inflation on the Bureau of Labor statistic that has Health Care going down what a joke is actually an insult to the sanity of ordinary people and now the thing is this we have 1981 and in the case of stocks August 82 a bull market in asset prices you know everything is more expensive home prices went up irregularly but today home prices are much higher than they were in 2007 in the last housing box mhm and my view since you asked me what I think about markets I think this asset inflation is coming now to an end I wrote the report the trump top in other words valuations are high and optimism is running rampant people never before have people or so many people expected stocks to be higher in a year's time then now people are bullish they mortgage everything to buy stocks and they might they and options they take they take the most speculative aspect of the market anyway I think the asset inflation is coming to an end and the Consumer Price inflation is going to accelerate in other words the cost of living will keep on going up I mean I see I'm a shareholder of her hotel what do they do the occupancy is down they increase prices it's crazy Market volatility is pushing investors toward the safety of gold although the precious metal faces pressure from a strong dollar and high interest rates which typically dampens its appeal US Gold Futures recently Rose to $2,679 60 reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainties an analyst from UBS highlighted the delicate balance between Gold's role as a safe haven asset and the Dollar's impact noting that concerns over potential emergency declarations from former president Trump and the prospect of universal tariffs could exacerbate trade Wars and inflation additionally the world gold Council reports a net inflow into gold exchange traded funds each TFS for the first time in 4 years signaling a Resurgence in interest in physical gold Investments this shift towards gold driven by economic and geopolitical concerns underscores the precious metals enduring role as a store of value in uncertain times if you found this message compelling and enjoyed the video be sure to give it a thumbs up share it with others subscribe to our Channel and turn on post notifications for more thought-provoking content thanks for watching for
Comments 0