저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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금융위기와 달러 붕괴 가능성을 경고하며, 과도한 부채와 시가총액 대비 실물경제 비중이 역사상 최고 수준이라 대형 경제위기가 불가피하다고 주장. 연준의 국채 매입 확대가 하이퍼인플레이션을 낳아 달러와 연계 통화가 함께 무너지고, 그 구매력이 금·은으로 이동한다는 시나리오 제시. 위기 시 손실 최소화가 우선이며 실물 금·은 보유를 권고. 시기는 특정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
We need to be prepared not to lose 100% or 120% that can happen that you have that will I lose the least money going forward. If we lose let's say if if I lose 30% and everybody else loses 80%. Then I gain purchasing power because they have less purchasing power. So it must have gone to to somebody else.
And how do how do you lose the least amount of money? My thinking on that is just get some money. uh and forget about the credit because gold is money and the dollar is credit. Silver is money too. Um and when credit collapses the purchasing power from credit moves into money and money is a thing and that is the most liquid in in in an economy.
So get that. Now we also need to determine where will we hold the gold and the silver and the real money because in some jurisdiction and in some forms it may disappear. The global economic architecture is reaching a critical inflection point where decades of exponential credit expansion threaten systemic instability across international markets.
Investors face an unprecedented macro environment where mitigating capital losses takes complete priority over hunting for speculative yields. Contrarian investor Mark Faber and monetary analyst Rafi Farber point out that the world is barreling toward an economic crisis of gigantic proportions. They predict that the financial system has only one final crisis remaining before recurring currency debasement causes fiat money to collapse entirely.
With interest rates escalating against record sovereign debt levels, the Federal Reserve is forecasted to absorb virtually the entire bond market, triggering severe hyperinflation, similar to historic currency failures. As unbacked paper credit disintegrates, all derivative currencies will collapse alongside the dollar, driving purchasing power directly into physical gold and silver as the only liquid monetary alternatives left to rebuild wealth.
Now we present the clips from their . my thesis on on what is what is happening. I don't have timing in terms of uh it's going to happen in a month or two or whatever. I don't know. But I'm pretty sure that there's only one more financial crisis left. We had one in 2001 with the dotcom and that that was uh shunted into real estate and then the real estate bubble collapsed in 2008 which made you kind of world famous.
Uh uh and then once that collapsed, it uh it went all into um you could say the bond market maybe and that peaked during COVID uh and that that financial crisis and that was the every every time we have a crisis we print two three times more money than we did before. I don't think the dollar is going to survive another printing round.
I think if interest rates keep going up and up and up and up that the the Fed is going to have to pretty much buy the entire bond market uh or close to it just like in Turkey tur the the Turkish central bank owns 80% of the Turkish bond market uh and and uh that's how I see hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is when the the central bank owns a big enough percentage of the bond market where everything collapses.
So I think we have one more financial crisis and that's it. And from there, I think the dollar is going to to fall and people will go back to gold and silver, not because they want to, but because there's nothing more liquid to use. And then we rebuild from there. And we'll see how wealth gets reorganized and redistributed from there.
A very optimistic scenario. Well, I'm an optimistic guy. I try not to focus on zombie apocalypse. So, what do you think? Well, I think um it's inevitable that we're moving to a financial crisis, an economic crisis of uh gigantic proportions because uh we have conditions today in the world that never existed before in the capitalistic age or in any age of any society.
In other words, as an example, we never had in the world this much debt, this much borrowings as a percent of the economy. We never had that much market capitalization as a percent of the real economy. In other words, I could argue traditionally we looked at the housing starts and industrial production and then we said, "Oh, this will benefit the stock market and these stocks and that Dow stocks." But nowadays, it's the financial market and the asset markets that have an influence on the real economy because of the size.
You understand? When I started to work in 1970 for White Weld in New York, the market cap, the market capitalization as a percentage of the US economy was just 25%. And throughout the 70s, it was around 25%. Because the economy was growing essentially, but the stock market went nowhere. In 1982, the stock market was below at the low point below 800.
The Dow Jones below 800 and it had been at 800 in 1964. So 18 years of essentially a sideward movement, but inflation adjusted. We call this um in real terms the stock market had declined by 70%. And this I want to tell you I agree with you the theory of the dollar and so forth and for sure the dollar will be worth less but less against what you think the euro is that much better or you think I is that much better.
No, I think all of these currencies are essentially dollar derivatives. So I think that when the dollar collapses, all currencies collapse together with it. Yes, I suppose that is correct. But I don't know. I I I I assume that this is uh the right uh theory to go by that paper currencies because of the money printing will and in fact what you hinted at is once you embark on money printing and you have a picture of Mises for Mises at the back there on your Once you embark on money printing, you cannot stop.
You could, but it's painful. And in democracies where politicians are elected based on promises that they will in improve the system to to make America better. I mean, you have to really be dumb to vote for someone who thinks he can make America better. Well, if if if that's your choice, if it's that or some brain dead guy named Biden, I could understand, you know.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But I agree with you. I always tell anybody I would have voted and would vote for him for Mr. Trump any time again. But because the alternatives are even worse. But it's sad to see a society where essentially there are so many intelligent people and so many capable people that know how to run company and businesses and none of them is in politics.
Yeah. Well, and the one that they [clears throat] got involved in politics, he was very efficient. Musk, they kicked him out right away. Yeah. Well, not before he revealed who was the guy who was transferring all of the money. Um, I think there was like one guy in some back room on a computer like just clicking yes on all of the transfers from Congress to wherever it was.
It was this really like fun thing like sort of like Douglas Adams who's like the the guy in the in the tent in the back that nobody pays attention to pushing the buttons and making all the money move. Um, so ba based on what you said, I I do think there are some uh some green shoots, some reasons for hope.
Um, and you you ask like uh why is it that all these politicians that are making promises to make America greater, to make this country greater, to make the system better. We do see one exception to that rule and that is Javier Mle of Argentina who actually came to power on opposite promises by saying, "We have no money.
I can't pay you. we just have to let everything fall and then hopefully the the free market will come and grow again which is he he hasn't been completely successful but he's been relatively successful starting from from almost nothing from you know completely uh pilferred society. So there's that and and the you know that makes me feel better.
Over the past several decades the relationship between financial assets and the real economy has undergone an unprecedented structural inversion. Historically, real indicators such as housing starts and industrial production dictated stock market performance. Today, bloated financial markets and total market capitalization exert an overpowering influence over the real economy due to their immense scale.
Global borrowings as a percentage of economic output have climbed to levels never before witnessed in modern history. Once monetary authorities embark on continuous currency printing to sustain this massive credit edifice, halting the intervention becomes nearly impossible without inducing acute economic contraction.
Because major foreign currencies function essentially as dollar derivatives underlying fractures within the reserve unit inevitably compromise the international monetary framework simultaneously. Now let's get back to the interview. It seems to me that they would get through the end of the dollar pretty much intact.
Is that what you think? Once the end game starts, everybody will lose out. There's no question about this. Now, will some people lose less than others? Yes, of course. It's like in a bull market. Say we if we look at the monetary inflation we had since the 70s then some horses uh were ahead and some lag behind in the race and as you know the wealth inequality in the world has increased uh dramatically.
We are at essentially a record high in terms of a few people the 0.0 01% owning a disproportionate large share of the wealth and of the income in the world compared to the bottom 50 or 70%. These people uh are in the bottom of the range in terms of wealth but if the world collapses around them I don't think they will notice much of a difference.
That's great. You you understand? I mean, I I talk to people sometimes and when there are elections and I ask them, "Well, are you going to vote for this or that prime minister?" And they say, "No." And I asked them, "Why?" Because they say, "For us, nothing ever changes." Yeah. Well, that that's I mean, if you want to take the term failed state and flip it on its head, um maybe we can make a dichotomy in terms of failed state versus a failed country.
A failed state is when the state goes bankrupt, doesn't have enough money, or can't enforce its laws. But if you have a culture that um that respects private property because that is just who they are, and they're not going to come and scratch your car just to damage it, well then what do you need a state for?
If you if you respect people's private property, basically the point of a state is to enforce the respect of private property. If nobody respects private property, especially then in your country, the state isn't going to respect private property. It's going to start taxing you like 50 60 70%. And then uh you're not going to do well.
Not as a culture, not as a society, not as a country. So maybe maybe Thailand is a failed state, but it's a successful country. Let's put it this way. It attracts a large number of retirees because on a budget uh they can live reasonably well. I'm not saying that everything is better than in western countries and that everything is cheaper than in western countries.
But uh in general, if someone has a pension of say $3,000 US, he wouldn't live very well in Geneva and Zurich and London and New York. You understand? Whereas in Thailand, he could uh live in a decent house, not necessarily right in the center of a city, but uh just on the outskirts in the suburbs, live in a house and have a servant and have plenty of food.
I mean the price level here is much lower than say in Zurich, Geneva, London, New York or Hong Kong or Singapore. So it attracts a lot of retirees. I'm not retired. I work uh and of course my cost of living is much higher because I have employees and a wife and so forth. But uh coming to the question why I went to Thailand, I I started to work in 1970 in New York and then in 73 the company which was an investment bank on Wall Street called White Weld.
They asked me to go to develop the business in Asia out of Hong Kong. So I went to Hong Kong and developed the Asian business for white and in 1978 they emerged into Mary Lynch and I didn't want to work for Mary Lynch and I'm sure that Maril Lynch didn't want me to work for them either. So they had a good year.
I went to New York and I found a job with Trexel Burnham. They wanted to open an office in Hong Kong. So I opened the offices for them in Hong Kong and Singapore and was running their business in Asia until 1990 when they went out of business. And then um I started my own business at the time and I was always based in Hong Kong but I traveled a lot throughout the world because the nature of my business changed over time and I became sort of an expert in emerging economies.
And then uh in 1990 we had a crisis in Asia in 97 and everything collapsed in including the currencies and the stocks and the property values and a lot of things were sold at the bargain after 1997. And so we bought this uh I had properties in Thailand before, but I had told my wife at the time that I wanted to have a house on the river in Shanghai.
I kept the office in Hong Kong, but we moved to Thailand because I was traveling a lot. So I was never in the office in Hong Kong anyway. And my wife is Thai. So everything that we own in Thailand belongs to her is in her name. But my office, I have a long-term lease with her. So, she can probably kick me out, but uh it would be difficult because I have this lease.
Anyway, economic survival during systemic downturns depends entirely on relative capital preservation rather than nominal gains. absorbing a 30% decline while the broader market suffers an 80% liquidation effectively expands real purchasing power during a crisis. Financial history demonstrates that markets can stagnate nominally for nearly two decades exemplified by the Dow remaining flat around 800 points between 1964 and 1982 while hemorrhaging 70% of its value in inflationadjusted terms.
Extreme wealth disparities have heightened these vulnerabilities. concentrating capital among the top fraction of a percent while average households remain insulated from asset inflation. As heavily indebted governments exhaust their borrowing options, administrative states routinely impose confiscatory tax burdens between 50 and 70% eroding fundamental property protections.
A clear distinction exists between an insolvent administrative state and a society grounded in private ownership. Consequently, diversifying capital internationally into lowerc cost regions that respect private property provides a practical pathway to insulate personal sovereignty from domestic fiscal decay. .
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