저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 AI 버블이 6월 정점 이후 붕괴 중이며 주식시장이 20~50% 폭락할 수 있다고 주장. 시장 폭(breadth) 악화: 200일선 상회 종목 약 40%, 신저가가 신고가보다 많음. 반도체·SOX는 6월 고점 후 신고가 없음. 금은 폭락 시 20~30% 하락 가능하나 주식보다 나을 것이라 봄. 달러는 금리차로 단기 강세, 신흥국(베트남·태국·인도네시아·중국) 가치주로 자금 이동 가능성 언급. 실물금 25% 보유 및 분산 보관 권고.
다듬은 글
I think when the disaster strikes the way I think, some people lose everything, everything. And some people who own gold, they may lose 20-30% possible. They may make money, who knows if everything goes beautifully. But I'm a pessimist, I a realist. I think if everything crashes, gold will also go down, but less than other things.
I would hold gold. Now, the next time we talk, we have to discuss where to store your gold because you don't want to store it where the government knows that your gold is located because that's where they can come and take it away from you. You want to hide it somewhere. And then you have to choose under which bed you want to hide it, in which house, with which girlfriend, and you understand, and in which country.
It's very important that you diversify geographically. Global markets stand on the brink of an unprecedented systemic shift following four decades of unchecked financialization and extreme asset inflation. When this towering debt supercycle unravels, rapid asset price deflation will dismantle wealth across traditional investment classes.
Marc Faber, a renowned Swiss contrarian investor, economist, and publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report, projects that the global financial sector has entered an irreversible downturn. He cautions that major equity markets reached a decisive macro peak in June, forecasting that a severe 20 to 50% market crash will take hold as the artificial intelligence bubble pops.
In his assessment, market breadth is deteriorating rapidly. With speculative momentum exhausting itself across major exchanges, he predicts that even physical gold may endure an initial 20 to 30% decline during widespread liquidation, but bullion will ultimately outperform crashing paper equities. To protect purchasing power, investors must secure physical precious metals and diversify geographically before sovereign capital controls restrict liquidity.
Now, we present the clips from Marc Fab think the current environment of outsized financialization in the world and asset price inflation can only give way to an asset price deflation at some point. In other words, that asset prices crash. Now, before we crash, I concede that we could go higher, but I written a report that we are at the major top in June.
And my basis for I mean, [clears throat] the argument I use is after 40 years bull market in asset prices, not everything peaks out the same day. Commercial properties peaked out in 2018. Residential have largely peaked out a while ago, say 2 years ago, and the meme stocks and the SPACs, they peaked out and the majority of stocks peaked out actually at the end of 2021.
Uh spring, summer, end of 2021, beginning of 2022. And now, we have an extension driven by say 20 stocks. The index is driven not by the majority of companies. Mhm. And I follow all the time, I mean, every week, the list of new highs and new lows, 12 months new highs, 12 months new lows. Now, there more new lows than new highs on a typical day, and we can measure how many stocks are above the 200-day moving average and below.
Now, only about 40% of stocks are above the 200-day moving average. So, the momentum has been weakening. In theory, an index like the S&P 500 could be driven up by one stock. If one stock, say, heavyweight stock like Nvidia or Apple goes up on a day very strongly, and 499 stocks go down a little bit, the index could end up This is because of the market weight.
Mhm. And now, more recently, I've noticed some weakness among the Fang and Fang-related stocks and the semiconductors. I mean, the semiconductors, including Micron and Nvidia and so forth, most of them peaked out in early June. They haven't made new highs. The SOX index also peaked out in early June.
And the utilities index, anyway, and the transports also peaked out already. So, someone may say, "Well, this is just a correction time, and when interest rates go down, the market will go up again." But what about if interest rates don't go down? Let's go up. So, so I don't want to put words in your mouth.
Is it your Is it your contention that the AI bubble has started to pop in June, and we are going to see a significant market correction, 30, 40, 50% from here? Yes, at least. The correct And we're that that is that has started. You're saying that think so. Yes, that that is my view. And that is a Would I short stocks?
Not necessarily because we have a lot of You understand? We have plenty of liquidity, but the liquidity may go not go into stocks. I have a theory. I think that liquidity increases as asset prices go up. Now, I can't prove it because people will say, "No, the asset prices go up because of money printing." But it reinforces itself.
Mhm. Say, assuming we crash the crypto market and the crypto market at the peak was $4 trillion. Now Mhm. Now it's probably around $2 trillion. But if it crashes to zero, I can tell you the generation Z will have less liquidity. That I can assure you. Mhm. see it with my own eyes because in the bars that used to be frequented by the generation Z is more quiet now.
Now they have gone to sports betting. That is the sure thing. They like to bet on sports. The answer to this question is that the Fed and other central banks in the world never tightened monetary policies. The interest rates are up, but so is the rate of inflation. Now, you may believe or your viewers may believe the fairy tales that come out of the Bureau of Liars, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has health care cost.
You have to listen to that. Health care cost down 35% over the last 5 years. I don't know in which country they live, but wherever I go, I see people paying higher and higher insurance premiums for health care insurances. And whenever people go to a hospital, it costs more than the year before. That is for sure.
Now, if some drug has declined in price, it's possible because the patent expired and they have generics. But in general, health care costs have gone up a lot, not a little, a lot, like education cost. And what has happened both the quality has declined, especially health care following the advent of Mr.
Fauci. I mean, that has to be said once and for all. Mr. Fauci is a criminal. Behind the resilience of headline stock indexes lies profound structural deterioration across financial markets. The apparent strength of capitalization weighted benchmarks masks severe internal decay as fewer than 40% of individual equities trade above their 200-day moving averages.
Daily breath measurements consistently register more 52-week lows than new highs, proving that upside momentum remains concentrated in a tiny fraction of mega-cap leaders. Key sectors like commercial real estate, transports, and utilities peaked long ago, underscoring that broad participation has vanished.
Broader economic foundations are equally compromised by relentless real-world inflation in core sectors like health care and education, completely disproving official government metrics. Central banks never tightened monetary conditions sufficiently to counterbalance genuine price pressures, leaving excessive balance sheet leverage unaddressed.
As speculative retail liquidity evaporates from consumer spaces and shifts into desperate sports gambling. Underlying household financial cushions continue to erode rapidly. Now, let's get back to the interview. After the crash in '87, I thought the world would have a serious recession, but it didn't happen.
And [clears throat] when the Japanese market crashed in '89, which I had predicted to my credit, but I made one mistake. I sold the Japanese market, which at the time was 50% of the world's GDP. I mean, it was crazy in the sense that say the palace in Tokyo, the Imperial Palace, the value of the land of that palace on paper was worth more than the state of California together.
I mean, it was an incredible overvaluation. But I thought when it burst, it brings down everything. But no, some markets continued to go up in the 1990s, notably the money flowed out of Japan into the Nasdaq in the US Yeah. and into the US stock market, where the Nasdaq had the most dramatic increase in its history between 1990 and the peak in March 2000.
And that scenario is a possibility that the money flows out of the The US has outperformed just about everything for the last 15 years since 2010. But in recent times, recent 2-3 years, some markets have outperformed the USA in the last 18 months, Europe has outperformed the US, and some emerging markets have also outperformed the US partly because of the currency appreciation.
But and also gold and silver and so forth, they have outperformed the US stock market. But still, the US has been dominant and foreigners have the highest allocation to US assets ever. There's a lot of money that has flown from all over the world. Everybody speculates in Nvidia, Tesla, and Micron Technology.
AMD and so forth. And SpaceX. And that money can flow out one day uh provided it can because foreign exchange controls may be imposed at some stage. But once it flows out, it could flow into emerging markets or into European stocks. In principally into value stocks. Because the difference between the high flyers, the AI-related stocks and the semiconductors, their valuation is sky-high.
And the other stocks around the world, quite a few of them are reasonable. I mean, I would say even say uh Vietnam is quite cheap. Thailand is reasonably cheap. Indonesia has become inexpensive and so forth. Chinese stocks are reasonably priced. So that money could flow into these markets and the US could go down and other markets could go up.
That's one scenario. But I lived through '73-'74 and '81-'82 where everything went down. Even the best companies and so forth. It wasn't a happy time for investors. I mean, this whole financial game is huge. But uh economically seen, I'm not sure that a 10-year Swiss government bond is much more desirable than a US Treasury bond at 10% for at 10 at 5% for 10 years.
You understand the yield differential supports the US dollar at the present time. But Mr. Trump, he would like to have interest rates at 1%. If that happened, then the dollar would collapse. It's going to collapse anyway. But not now because the yield differential is so high. I mean, would you buy a 10-year Chinese bond at 2%?
You and I, we can buy gold, but the bond manager who has a bond fund, he will likely buy Treasuries over US over Chinese bonds. I live in Thailand in the north of Thailand, and the Thai government bonds for 10 years is about 2 and 1/2%. The deposit rate for 6 months or a year is less than 2%. I mean, on my deposits with the banks, I get less than 2%.
But in the US, I can get, you know, close to 5% on deposits. So, this supports the US dollar. Now, to your contention that you would buy gold, talking to me, you're talking to someone who for the last 30 years or so has been telling people to invest in gold and silver. Not all their money, but say 25% of their assets.
How many people do you know who have 25% of their assets in gold and silver? Eric Sprott and I know to say three other people that have a large portion of their money in stocks. But, the majority of Americans, they have their wealth in their homes. Yeah. You understand? The rich people have the majority of their money in corporate stocks, either their own business or they have large portfolio of stocks, and some live in expensive mansions like the the brainless people of Hollywood.
Well, let let let's get back to The brainless people of Hollywood Mr. Trump wants to subsidize. Massive valuation disparities have separated Western mega-cap equities from global financial markets. Decades of capital concentration in domestic technology conglomerates mirror historical anomalies such as Japan's asset bubble when the land beneath Tokyo's Imperial Palace exceeded the paper value of the entire state of California.
Today, while high-flying semiconductor and growth stocks trade at extreme multiples, deeply discounted value equities across Southeast Asia and emerging markets offer far more compelling fundamentals. Established enterprises throughout Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China maintain conservative valuations relative to their underlying balance sheets, presenting distinct alternatives to crowded domestic trades.
Concurrently, elevated 5% deposit yields and treasury differentials currently sustain short-term dollar strength compared to low-yielding foreign sovereign bonds. However, relying exclusively on paper claims introduces profound vulnerabilities to sovereign balance sheet expansion and prospective capital controls.
True risk mitigation centers on maintaining a dedicated 25% asset allocation towards physical gold and silver. Holding tangible bullion across secure diversified international jurisdictions provides essential private autonomy protecting generational capital from centralized institutional overreach, confiscation risks, and systemic currency debasement.
Maintaining physical privacy outside state surveillance remains the primary safeguard against systemic wealth destruction. .
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