저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Faber는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 있으며 공식 GDP는 실질을 반영하지 않는다고 주장. 금 비중 25% 이상 권고, 금은 1999년 대비 아직 싸다고 봄. 단기적으로 채권이 주식보다 나을 수 있다고 언급하나 금리 방향은 불확실하다고 함. 달러는 과대평가 가능성, 주식은 재평가 하락 위험 언급. 금 2025년 상승 전망(사회자 설명 포함).
다듬은 글
I think stocks will not have a high return but I think gold and other precious metals are not cheap as they were say in 1999 when gold was at $253 but compared to the monetary expansion that we had in the world to the increase in weals to the increase in assets under the management of the fund management industry you look at fun managers most of them have not even 1% of the Assets in Gold not even 1% and I'm suggesting people should have 25% in gold or more gold has continued to see strong performance into 2025 maintaining the positive trend that began in 2024 the asset has benefited from a combination of factors including the bull market in US equities which has helped support its price at the start of 2024 gold was priced at $246 per ounce and by January 1st 2025 it had risen to $2,622 marking an impressive 28% increase this surge is noteworthy compared to the s&p500 which climbed 25% in the same period with gold outpacing it by 3% this performance strongly indicates Gold's appeal as a reliable investment particularly amid the broader economic uncertainty certainty Mark Faber a financial analyst has raised concerns about the US economy suggesting that it may already be in or approaching a recession even though official data such as GDP growth do not reflect this despite government reports showing growth many individuals feel the effects of declining living standards Faber notes that inflation could continue to rise even during a recession due to persistent government spending policies which may exacerbate inflationary pressures these factors contribute to an environment where gold remains an attractive asset particularly as a hedge against economic instability another key factor contributing to Gold's potential for further growth is the Federal Reserve expected policy shift toward lower interest rates this shift could weaken the US dollar creating favorable conditions for gold which tends to perform well when the dollar depreciates as interest rates decrease gold becomes more appealing since it does not offer yield like other interest bearing assets additionally central banks particularly in Emerging Markets have been increasing their gold reserves and further monetary easing from the FED May encourage additional purchases we present the clips of Faber's insights from his recent interview before we continue to discuss this please subscribe to our Channel and activate the Bell icon for timely updates I expect the recession I I think we are already in recession now but through government statistics the recession is essentially kept off the Public's attention in other words the standards of living of most people are going down but the government shows as you say 2.8% GDP growth or what not but I feel that one day the recessionary trend will become more obvious and at that time I suppose that interest rates on the 10 years treasuries and on the 30 years uh will rally somewhat in a recessionary environment I would expect inflation to De accelerate but then we have monetary policy and fiscal policy that are highly inflationary highly especially fiscal policies and so it is possible that even if the US went into recession at the same time we would have accelerating inflation that is a possibility and I wouldn't dismiss that possibility entirely so exactly how interest rates will move I don't know based on inflation figures but my suspicion is everybody and his brother-in-law are selling Bonds in other words they invest in stocks but they avoid bonds and I think there's a case to be made that say for three months or 6 months bonds could outperform stocks also Paul Jud Jones in his interview he said it's s of I mean he didn't spell it out very clearly but the essence was avoid being long bonds be short bonds the Wall Street is heavily short bonds heavily but on the other hand the commercials who are usually well informed they're long boms and I would rather bet with the commercials in other Mr people who are very close to the market the hatchers I want to address two issues that you mentioned what is interesting is that in the last over the last six months the feds cut shortterm rates by 100 basis points but Bond deals have gone up 100 basis points so it would indicate to me that whereas the FED May control short-term rates they've s of lost control of long-term rates I'm saying sort of because obviously if they cut short-term rates to zero I suppose that the bond market would rally somewhat or they could introduce negative interest rates on short-term deposits but to the anticipation of the dollar I shouldn't say this but I think the dollar is grossly grossly overpriced grossly but you understand in a money printing environment it's very difficult to make to have a view on fundamentals because what you can have is I wrote about this recently the housing market basically in some areas in America is back to the level in 2018 2019 but the housing ETF is up very substantially so we're dealing with in a money printing environment with essentially a money economy and at the same time the real economy that what is going on between people when they transact they buy and sell the house or they rent something or they sell something at Home Depot or buy something at Home Depot that is the real economy but the artificial economy is driven largely from the money Printing and the fiscal deficits and these are two different things so you have a mispricing and misallocation of resources but as I said I think the economy is far weaker than what the government is publishing look as I explained in a normal environment I would say deposits although not a high return and probably a negative return in real terms inflation adjusted returns but it's maybe better to lose 1 2% inflation adjusted than to lose 20% but the problem that I see with deposits is that in a financial crisis uh the banks may be under pressure and deposits may not be worth very much we've experienced that repeatedly in history so you may be better off in some stocks they may decline 50% but you still have the company now people have been talking about re ratings for years uh in my view we could have a reating on the Downs side in other words today a stock sells at 20 times earnings maybe in future it will only sell at five times earnings could be I think stocks will not have a high return but I think gold and other precious metals are not cheap as they were say in 1999 when gold was at $253 but compared to the monetary expansion that we had in the world to the increase in weals to the increase in assets under the management of the fund management industry you look at fund managers most of them have not even 1% of the Assets in Gold not even 1% and I'm suggesting people should have 25% in gold or more and then as I said at the moment the mood about bonds is everybody's negative but in a recession bonds could rally somewhat uh maybe not as much as uh in other recessionary returns but they could rally because a they are oversold the short positions very high and be and secondly because the recession could remove temporary inflationary pressures Mark as we then I would say real estate you the real estate market in some areas is very expensive in the US but there are villages in Europe which are very cheap Mark Faber points out that the US federal debt has skyrocketed to over $36 trillion surpassing the size of the entire economy over the past 40 years there have been some brief attempts to cut the deficit but the tendency to overspend supported by both political parties has dominated surprisingly the US has not paid a heavy price for this borrowing mortgage rates are much lower than in the 1980s and inflation is more controlled however despite government reports claiming growth most Americans struggle with living costs Rising faster than their wages this suggests that the reported economic growth is mainly artificial driven by government borrowing and debt as the federal debt has ballooned the interest payments on that debt have increased taking away money from other critical areas Faber also compares the US situation to Japan's where the debt to GDP ratio is well over 200% while Japan has managed to handle its debt it has caused problems including a weaker Yen which has reduced the purchasing power of its citizens many Japanese households are struggling as wages aren't keeping up with inflation and the currency decline has made life more expensive Faber warns that if the US continues to pile on debt without addressing the problem it could face similar issues with people's purchasing power dimin in over time despite what official economic reports might suggest we need to make adjustments to the figures that are published by governments because if the government says the economy grew at 2 to 3% perim okay but if you adjust economic growth for the true price increases within the system not the CPI figures that are compiled by government uh agency that understate the rate of inflation so if you adjust this by the true rate of inflation probably there was no growth or actually for most people negative growth because the price increases exceeded the salary increases number two I mean I looked the other day at uh the debt level in America in 1980 because I started to work in 1970 on Wall Street and as you know by 1980 81 government bonds started to Rally because during the 70s interest rates had gone up and uh the rally in bonds then created the rally in stocks beginning in August 1982 so we have a major turning points from a poorly performing Financial assets throughout the 70s to improved financial performance going forward from 19 82 onwards with stocks and 81 for bonds now uh the debt level federal debt level was less than a trillion dollars in 1980 now we at 36 trillion so you understand when you say the economy grew by say 3% and government debt Grows by 5% or 3% then the growth that you are saying is not truly real it's a kind of artificial growth that is due to increase G government borrowings and this increased government borrowings will will over time lead to increased interest payments on the government debt and then the the budget cannot anymore be balanced because most of the expenditures become interpace payments on the government debt and there is less money for other things and so forth so you understand I think that when people look at GDP they have to be very careful and analyze what caused growth was it just price increases or government debt increases or credit in general private credit growth and so for and in my opinion uh there may have been nominal growth of 2 to 3% but in real terms 70% of us households are worse off than a few years ago they haven't recovered to the 2018 level or earlier level uh the currency has weakened very considerably so the purchasing power of uh households has been uh declining and the Japanese claim they have very little inflation but I can assure you I've been going to Japan for the last more than 50 years and Japan is always an expensive country now there are times when it's relatively cheap and their deals you know you can have a holiday skiing holiday in a package relatively reasonable price but uh otherwise the country say if I measure how much it cost you to travel from the airport to the city then in Tokyo if you take a taxi it will set you back almost $200 so you know in Singapore I can go from any place uh to the airport for say $25 us Hong Kong a little bit more maybe $30 us so I'm just saying uh the Japanese in recent uh times in in other words in the last say two years the population has lost considerable purchasing power because of the weakness in the Yen and most people in Japan get paid in Yen and salaries haven't gone up that much and so once again you're expressing concern about the US economy you don't think the US economy is as strong as we're told it is this is what I think that the economy and I see that myself because a I'm an economist and a social Observer but two I'm a wealthy investor Okay so as a wealthy investor I pray that the FED will continue to print money and that as a result of this money printing asset prices stay high or move higher in other words I as an asset holder I don't want assets to depreciate but as a social Observer I can tell you that the majority in a population whether it's in Asia or in the US or Europe the majority is not uh progressing at all because whatever wage gains they have and these wage gains are not huge they lose out on increased cost of living expenditures and the FED relies on the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes lies according to the BLS the Bureau of Labor Statistics health care costs have been down over the last three years I don't know any insurance company in the whole world that has lowered its premiums over the last three years which is an indication of Health Care cost number through two uh most prices of pharmaceutical products are not going down but up it may be true that some drugs that come off patterns that decline in price but by and large send your children once or your parents to hospital you will wake up how much a hospital costs that I can assure you so I question the statistics that the government publishes as I question everything else governments do experts predict that gold prices will continue to rise in 2025 driven by strong demand and positive economic factors central banks especially in Emerging Markets are expected to keep buying large amounts of gold which will help maintain higher prices in addition there is likely to be a surge in investments in exchange traded funds ETFs which could further support Gold's upward movement with central banks particularly the US Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates gold becomes a more attractive option as it doesn't rely on yields like other Investments as a result gold prices could hit new highs reaching $22,900 per ounce by early 2025 and may even approach $3,000 per ounce in the long run driven by substantial Central Bank purchases and increasing investor demand share your thoughts on Mark in the comment section below if you find this video informative don't forget to support our Channel and turn on notifications to stay informed about our latest videos see you in the following video for
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