저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
아요디아에서 진행된 인터뷰로, 인도 증시는 개장이 녹색으로 시작했지만 밸류에이션이 높아 실적 확인이 중요하다고 봄. 중국 디플레 대비 인도는 인플레 환경이며 실적 성장률은 12~15% 수준으로 예상. 은행권은 예금 이탈로 NIM 압박과 수익성 하락 우려가 있으나 대출 수요는 양호. 2024년 선거 리스크는 상당 부분 해소된 것으로 보며, 방산·PSU·철도 등 섹터 랠리가 지속될지에 대해서는 우려를 표함.
다듬은 글
We will go to Ayodhya where Anuj is having an exclusive conversation with Ramdev Agarwal and this is the only exclusive location where CBC Awaaz has reached there. Of course Harshita and Ramdev Sir are with us once again and as I was saying that for the first time in the history of the country the market opened from Ayodhya and we rang the market bell here from Ayodhya and Ramdev Sir did that for us, so Ramdev Sir, thank you very much for that and one thing is that the market had to open today, it is in green, it did not mean that it would open in red today, no, that is fine, there are a lot of forces in the market and the general market has a bit fabled environment, but we have to be careful about the earnings growth, because we are among the most expensive emerging markets, 22.2 is the time ahead, so the clear earnings expectation is very good and the earnings that are coming now are a bit mixed for this sector, consumer companies are having a little earnings this week, some of the even larger BFSI is also a bit weak, so looking at the aggregate Yes, a lot of earnings are yet to come but from the early headlines that are visible in the business sector, it seems that some earnings will be slightly at the level of a little lower, it is not definitely there, there is no positive surprise in the earnings so far, so one has to keep in mind that the market momentum of earnings is definitely not at 15-17, but at 12 to 15, then the situation that is happening in China right now, that we are 20 above and 20 below, so you know their earnings are coming down, I do n't know how much deflationary the environment is there, but we have an inflationary environment here, earnings will definitely come, they will come 10, they will come 15, that will have to be seen, so you feel that at this time earnings are coming out as a risk picture, it means yes, earnings, it means there is a risk factor at this time, risk factor means brother, see, you have elevated valuation, now what is there in it, there is a confidence in earnings, there is something else.
If there is no confidence, then the earnings are fine, the retail flow is very good, so the market will not fall. To build the market, that is what is needed. Next, you talked about the large BFSI sector, when the HDFC Bank numbers came out, people got a little scared. That day, the market was completely devastated, especially the banking sector.
But looking at the numbers of III Bank and IndusInd Bank, it seemed that perhaps it was a bank- specific issue. You would say that it was a bank- specific issue, clearly a bank-specific issue, but the issue for the entire sector is the migration from banking sector. People are not keeping a lot of money because people are not keeping it.
It is not like that. But look, you get deposits of Rs 20 to 22 lakh crore every year. GDP has shifted to the capital market at Rs 1 lakh crore. Look, the story is of Rs 5 and Rs 15. You have come to capital, you get it at Rs 15, and here you get it at Rs 5, but earlier there was no access. Now, with the digital access, with 4 million customers coming every month, it is clear.
This is that brother, the population of capital market is increasing a little, that is, 10-5 per cent and the bank deposits that used to come are shifting, due to which there is a little shortage of deposits, the low cost deposits are there, this is happening a little in that, so their cost of liability is going up, pricing power is not there, so the reason behind the NIM is one, your volume will increase from 15-20 per cent, but your NIM that could be under pressure and hence your ROTA can also come down, profit can come down, so there is such doubt among the people, so due to that the sector that remains under challenge, so it means that we were thinking that maybe there will be an issue of name compression for two-three quarters, that can go on for a long time, so how much risk can it pose to the valuation, because of that, see the entire value, that is a little bit.
It is earnings based and see, the ROTA is very thin, the ROTA is around 180-190 basis points, if you invest even 15-20 basis points in it, then the growth of one year will be out, yes, that is the thing, right now you should ask the banker that what do you mean, all the results are coming, then you can talk to them, they will tell us what will be our understanding, they will tell brother how much can they set off from the operating volume growth, there is no doubt in that because the profits are not available, low cost loans are not available, and that too you will get 15, good thing, it is loan demand is very good, your economy is on the move, so loan demand is good, operating leverage will also come, but see how everything happens in combination, the earnings mix, understand, okay Ramj sir, one thing, because we are in Ayodhya, so I am getting a little feeling, looking at it, it seems that for 2024, at least for the market, politics is not a risk factor, that is probably One thing had come out of the assembly elections as well, but after this event, it seems that people might take it for granted and go away.
Well, this is a very big event, but whatever happened a month ago in the state elections was quite clear and now, I mean, a raid has been conducted on top of that, you can understand that yes, but then this is your democracy, a month or four months are left, a lot can happen, so until the work was not done, then you should understand that the work is not done, but I mean, what happened that day was that brother, now the risk will remain at 2, 5, 10, but the bulk of the risk is gone from that event, now at least I take for granted that it is going to continue.
I asked you this question because the forces which are leading the market right now, the sectors which are leading the most are defense, PSU, railways, these types of shares, here you feel that this rally will continue in this manner, I am feeling a little scared right now, look at these, one thing is that your flow Retail flow, secondly, this sector was very unpopular earlier, yes, in the last 10 years, it was very unpopular, all the multiples of three, four, five had also come, five, five, seven, so clearly it was one of the most popular sectors, on top of that, you started getting cash bombs.
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