저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 주식시장이 장기 약세장에 진입했으며 하락폭이 과거 거품 붕괴 수준(실질 기준 약 50%, 바닥은 3,000 부근 가능)에 이를 수 있다고 경고하고, 1970~80년대식 스태그플레이션 재진입 가능성을 강조한다. 약세장 전망: 현재 시장이 고평가 상태이며 버블 붕괴 시 S&P500이 실질 기준 약 50% 하락할 수 있고, 추세선 가치인 약 3,000 아래로 내려갈 가능성도 언급한다. 인플레이션(약 8%대)을 감안하면 명목 수치는 더 높게 나타난다. 거품 사례: 2000년 닷컴 붕괴 때 아마존이 매출 성장에도 약 92% 하락한 점을 예로 들며, 시장은 대체로 합리적이지만 가끔 낙관에 휩쓸려 실적과 무관한 가치를 매긴다고 설명한다. 연준 평가: 연준은 저금리로 자산가격을 밀어올렸고 그 결과 불평등이 심화되었으며, 금리 인하를 너무 오래 유지한 것이 실책이라고 비판한다. 성장률도 그린스펀 이전 3.5%, 이후 2.5%, 현재 약 1%로 둔화되었다고 본다. 스태그플레이션 우려: 오일쇼크 시기와 유사하게 원자재 가격 상승, 인구 감소(출산율 하락), 고령화로 인한 노동 공급 축소가 겹쳐 향후 수십 년간 인플레이션 압력이 지속될 수 있다고 본다. 원자재 실질가격은 2002년 이후 상승 추세이며, 구리·석유 등 고품질 자원 고갈로 채굴 비용이 늘고 있다. 리스크: 정부 정책이 적절하지 않으면 인플레이션이 파도처럼 반복되며 점차 고착화될 수 있다. 단기 반등 가능성은 언급되지만 장기 전망은 비관적이다. 대상 자산 전망: S&P500은 1~3개월 내 하락 가능성 언급(약세장 저점은 장기적으로 제시), 나머지 개별 종목 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
in terms of the entire bear market it uh would be unusual for it to bottom out uh anywhere near uh this high i i would expect that by the low that the s p would have declined by 50 from the peak in in real terms so a year from now when the bear market might end the trend line value would be almost 3 000 on the s p of course there's no rule that says you'd stop at that value typically in previous big bubbles breaking they go down below that that's a lot of pain and it's possible that would do that again but but you do have to adjust for inflation there was very little inflation around in 2000 but this time with inflation running at 809 it does move the the nominal value of the s p upwards and one shouldn't lose sight of that it's hard in a bull market to get your brain around what happens in the bear market let me go back to amazon amazon in in the 2000 burst didn't just come down as its sales continued to grow of course in those days it didn't have earnings uh because it was running on borrowed uh resources it came down uh 92 92 with strongly rising sales a brilliant successful new idea that went on to own the world and be worth the fortune how is it possible it came down 90 92.
so think about that sometimes as you go to bed i like to say 80 of the time the market is pretty sensible and doing a possibly good job of estimating value for all the companies a little and under 15 of the time it gets carried away with optimism and by the end of that time has nothing to do with actual earnings it's all in the head projecting out hundreds of years into the future assuming the perfect conditions will stay perfect forever every bubble uh takes place with near perfect conditions and huge profit margins and the market runs with that and assumes it will stay there forever and of course conditions mean reverb profit margins mean reverb and good times become bad times and that and that is a problem no i i expect the fed to be behind the curve to be deep into optimism and it doesn't really have a clue about market bubbles and the damage they do when they break they've been eager now since early greenspan to encourage bull markets because they help the economy they really do and they always forget that the bear markets to go along with them hurt the economy at just the wrong time so if i'd been asked to bet would the fed get inflation wrong when inflation came along at any time i would have said of course they'll miss it they'll be late their responses will be pretty ill-judged the fed's record is terrible what is impressive is how much room they have been cut by the market i mean the market is incredibly forgiving to the fed this bed had a wonderful environment uh they did nothing right but they but they were seen to be presiding over low inflation and decent growth the growth rate actually has slowed way down since greenspan it was averaging three and a half before greenspan and averaging two and a half afterwards and today more like one another it's done nothing in terms of increasing the growth rate but superficially it felt like a golden age because asset prices went up asset prices went up because inflation came down and rates were allowed to come down and in the end rates were forced out and low rates make leverage uh cheap make private equity deals wonderfully easy and profitable and and they push up the price of real estate and they push up the price of stocks and and that's the way it was and the fed gets the credit for that uh and it's due not it's demerit accrues from the fact that it kept on pushing down interest rates far too long and dangerously increasing inequality which is i like to say is the greatest poison in the system these days and it does damage the degree of inequality we have in the u.s now does damage the strength of the economy and it is probably part of the reason why the growth rate has slowed and continues to slow there's a lot of concern that we're entering into in 1970s or 80s scenario of stagflation as a historian could you give our audience an idea of what was happening during that period and how it resembles today well every every period is unique the 70s had problems with the oil crises you can call it one giant crisis or you can call it two or three but in any case it uh and triple quadruple quintuple the price of oil in a hurry we'd come off 50 years of fairly stable low prices and they shot up and and stayed up for a long time and inflicted enormous pain on the system they lowered the growth rate why wouldn't it if you have to pay three four times for your energy it also of course pushes up the price so there's nothing like a an oil price increase to increase stagflation and it did and this time if you adjust for the passage of time the price of oil is not as high but it's still multiplied recently by three times so that is imposing a pain on consumption and it's imposing inflationary pressure we also have because of the invasion of ukraine we have had some extra spikes in the price of food fertilizer and natural gas particularly in europe interestingly they are now almost all of them lower in price than the day before the invasion and this is a lovely example of how the stock market works the stock market is saying whoops there's so much damage from commodity price rises uh et cetera et cetera that we're going to have a recession um but the recession isn't bad news because the recession is going to get the fed back in in our camp of uh lowering interest rates again and helping stock prices and we're looking out into the future and therefore that's the good news so the fear of a recession becomes a wishful thinking about future interest rates and so the market gets a reprieve for a while it's um it's quite remarkable but it's fairly typical and and that's what we're having now and that's why we might have a bit of a rally for a few weeks i think i i think in the longer term forget the next few quarters who knows what happens really but in the longer term we are really running the risk that this is back to the 70s we have problems with the availability of plentiful cheap resources we have problems with plentiful cheap labor the birth rate has crunched in every developed country except israel and and china that's a very very important segment of the global economy to say the least and every one of them has a population growth rate lower than replacement level so in the end after accumulating lots of older people as a higher and higher percentage we start to actually have the population drop secondly we're 10 and 20 years in depending on the country into having smaller baby cohorts so we know with absolute certainty since they're alive already that the 20 year olds arriving in the marketplace will be fewer and fewer for the next 20 years and we have not experienced this before this has happened incredibly fast china has gone from plenty of babies to a baby crunch almost overnight and their fertility rate that needs to be 2.1 is probably running about 1.4 and even in the us the uk we're running about 1.7 we've never seen levels like this so we're going to have a hard time getting enough labor we're going to accumulate old people who are very resource intensive they need a lot of medical care they need a lot of people care and we're not going to have all that many people they're the supply of people to look after us old fogies is is dropping steadily from now on for the rest of your life for sure and at the same time i believe the correct interpretation of the commodity data is that it wasn't only the china shop the rapid growth rate for 30 years in china but it was also showing signs that the best and cheapest most plentiful resources had simply been mined or pumped and that we are running down into the second tier if you look at the copper oil for example king copper is really important to the industrial system over 80 90 years the the amount of copper in a ton of oil has dropped to a third of what it was so you're using an awful lot more energy and the energy also which used to run for 100 years at twenty dollars a barrel in today's currency and now runs at a hundred so you're spending five times the cost of energy to mine one-third the quality of copper oil uh you you better believe technology can't keep up with that it did for a long time it did very very well but starting about 2002 the real price of the typical commodity has gone up a lot it's basically tripled in 100 years it went from starting at 100 it went down to 30.
a brilliant help for getting rich and then from 2002 until today it's gone from 30 to 90. so over 122 years commodities are just about flat adjusted for inflation and only 20 years ago they were down at 30 cents on the dollar this is a huge shift it hasn't been nearly enough fuss made about it but it's the direction that it's interesting to me the direction is steadily up now there's a lot of volatility and commodities everybody knows um you produce an extra ton and the price collapses and you're short of time and the price triples but if you look at the trend the trend has been pretty remotely up since 2002 and my guess is it will continue to rise and that will pose a real stagflationary pressure for a couple of decades and that's why i fear this is re-entering the 70s and 80s if you prefer it re-entering the 20th century once again so inflation will always be part of the discussion sometimes it will be low sometimes it will be higher but it will always be on the agenda the same with stagnation there will be pressure on growth that we have not had we have had a glorious honeymoon period for 20 years where rates always came down and where chinese workers were always available and inflation was a thing of the past and it is no longer a thing of the past and unless we have some sensible behavior from governments around the world this this inflation will go in little waves and will become moderately embedded at best and really embedded at worst you
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