저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 연준 정책 실패로 인플레이션 또는 디플레이션 붕괴가 불가피하며, 금·은 및 금은광산주가 새 강세장에 진입했다고 주장. 연준과 정부 구조: 연준은 금리를 물가상승률 이상(현재 약 4%, 필요 7% 이상)으로 올려야 하나, 정부 지출 대폭 삭감 없이는 불가능하다고 봄. 정부는 인플레이션으로 지출을 조달하고 있음. 불가피한 선택: 연준은 인플레이션 또는 경제 붕괴 중 택해야 하며, 어느 쪽이든 결국 하이퍼인플레이션이나 금융위기로 귀결된다고 주장. 책임은 항상 외부(OPEC, 푸틴, 탐욕 기업, 투기자)에 전가될 것이라 함. 과거 경고: 2008년 서브프라임 위기를 미리 경고했으나 주류 경제학자들에게 조롱당했다고 언급. 과도한 양적완화로 잘못된 자원배분이 누적되어 있다고 진단. 귀금속 시장: 은이 금보다 강하게 움직이며(하루 약 9% 상승, 전월 저점 대비 약 18%) 강세장 전환 신호로 해석. 금·은 광산주 ETF(GDXJ)는 2.5년 저점 대비 1주 만에 약 20% 반등. 달러와 채권: 달러는 고점을 형성해 약세장 진입으로 보며, 채권 반등은 일시적 베어마켓 랠리로 평가. 전망: 연준 피벗이 공식화되기 전 시장이 선반영할 것이며, 기다리면 금 관련 주식이 두세 배 오를 수 있는 기회를 놓친다고 조언. 실업이 인플레이션을 잡는다는 견해는 틀렸고, 정부 축소가 필요하다고 주장. 리스크: 피벗 전 매수에는 위험이 따르나, 기다리면 기회를 놓칠 수 있음.
다듬은 글
people still don't understand the disaster that the Federal Reserve has created with this policy so everybody's going to get wiped out through deflation when this whole thing collapses at a crisis or they're going to get wiped out through inflation inflation is the stealth tax by which the government pays for everything they still haven't really figured it out they still haven't figured out the Rock and the hard place that the FED in the country are between because the FED is going to have to Pivot but inflation is going to run out of control see they've got to make a choice do they want inflation or do they want economic implosion now ultimately if they choose inflation we're going to have an implosion anyway because we're going to have hyperinflation it just may happen a year later and well that's good enough for the politicians all they care about is that it doesn't happen now because to fight inflation and there's only one way they're going to fight inflation successfully which is why they can't do it they've got to raise interest rates above the rate of inflation and inflation is what eight percent even if it's six percent they got to get short-term interest rates up to seven percent they're they're barely at four percent they got a long way to go and they've got to have massive cuts to government spending they're not even considering that because right now the way the government pays for spending is with inflation the Federal Reserve has to be able to withdraw all the liquidity that it's supplied so we have to have big cuts to government spending right now the government's got to cut Social Security Medicaid air Obamacare National Defense we have to shrink the amount of money the government is spending the government has to spend less money next year than it spent last year in real real terms actual Cuts not reductions in the rate of injury increases but actual Cuts that's not happening so the government's got to choose do we want to have a financial crisis and cut government spending and allow bankruptcies and defaults and all these losses or do we want to have inflation and that's what they're going to pick sure if they thought they can get rid of inflation without a problem yes the public doesn't like inflation so the politicians wanted to talk tough about inflation but what they're going to like even less that inflation is when they lose everything they've got when they have a complete economic implosion when their savings and investment accounts get wiped out and they lose their jobs they're not going to like that now of course that's going to happen eventually anyway there's no free lunch here if the government chooses inflation then inflation is going to wipe everybody out so everybody's going to get wiped out through deep deflation when this whole thing collapses and a crisis or they're going to get wiped out through inflation but the reason the FED is going to pick inflation is because that happens later and of course as we've seen they can come up with a scapegoat to blame inflation on somebody else they never accept responsibility for the inflation they create so if the FED keeps hiking rates and everything implodes well hey we did that to ourselves they can blame the fled they blame the FED but if prices just run out of control well we could blame OPEC after all they just cut production for oil we could blame Putin we could blame greedy corporations we could blame capitalism speculators I mean maybe they'll even try to blame me who knows but they're never going to accept any responsibility for what they did but what I started talking about when we saw this Neiman type moment and remember you know I'm familiar with these leaving moments because I remember when I was short the subprime market and the things that finally happened to get me to realize that okay we're about to get paid because I knew what to look out for because I was looking for these signs the idea that nobody rings a bell it's not true they rang the bell they Big Ben went off not people didn't hear it people still don't understand the disaster that the Federal Reserve has created with this policy you know I was very much against QE from the beginning and people are about to find out why the Paul krugmans of the world and all the people on mainstream investment firms who were blindsided by the 2008 financial crisis who laughed at me on National Television when I was warning about that crisis these are the same people who are oblivious again because they think the FED solved the problem they didn't understand I understood the problem that's why I knew the crisis was coming and I also knew that the FED made the problem they created worse I just didn't know how long it would take before we experienced the consequences well now we're here right we've we've met the can that we kicked down the road and there's no place left to kick it but people have no idea how bad this is going to be because we've had over a decade of unprecedented monetary Madness and an unprecedented level of Mal Investments misallocation of recall sources all these mistakes have been made that have to be corrected and the fact that we didn't correct them a decade ago means they got much bigger but it doesn't mean that we could you know avoid the Day of Reckoning forever we've got a date with Destiny and you know it's it's soon and when I started to observe was the Divergence in the markets looking at what happened in the precious metals Market looking at the big out performance in silver and today we had almost nine percent move up in silver in one day I mentioned the outperformance last week last month in silver over gold to me looking like okay this is indicative of a turning point that you now see silver which had been leading goal down now leading gold up and in a bull market in Precious Metals silver outperforms gold and the fact that it's outperforming now is a sign that we may be in a bull market in fact silver is now up 18 since its low last month so that's almost a bull market what is in a bull market by that 20 definition is gold and silver mining stocks the gdxj made a two and a half year low a week ago today a week later it's 20 percent higher in one week uh we've moved up 20 from that low and I saw this action I've been commenting on it the last couple of podcasts also the topping action in the US dollar we had that one spectacular day where we had outside reversal days in the dollar in the gold market in the gold we're mining stocks and in the bonds and I thought the outside day in the bonds was pivotal in that it would put in a short-term top and so far it looks like it has I just don't think it's going to be a long-term top I think that's just you created a bear Market rally in bonds but for the dollar I think it probably is a top and now we're in a new bear Market in the dollar and a new bull market in gold and silver and gold and silver mining stocks so I think this is the Turning Point has the FED officially capitulated yet no have they pivoted no but I think the markets are starting to sense that this is eminent and I think a lot of people said hey I don't want to buy any gold I don't want to you know buy these gold mining stocks until after the FED pivots and I've always said it'll be too late I mean it won't be too late but it won't be nearly as opportune as buying before the pivot because you got to take a little bit of a risk right no guts no glory the market it is going to start to price in the pivot before the pivot happens so if you wait for the official pivot you can miss the big a huge move off the lows gold stocks could double or triple before we finally get the pivot now I don't think it's going to be a buy the room or sell the fact where the people who bought when they finally get a pivot well then that's the top no I think that's just gonna send the market into a into another leg up because people have no idea what this pit means because inflation is going to get worse and worse and worse during this recession and you have a lot of people who think that recession cures inflation that if people lose their jobs well that that that helps fight inflation in fact people are actually saying that the goal of the FED is to put people out of work to reduce inflation that is nonsense people working doesn't cause inflation economic Prosperity does it cause inflation you don't have to make the country poorer to get rid of inflation you have to make the government smaller the government is the source of inflation
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