저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 인플레이션은 전 세계 중앙은행의 동시 양적완화와 저금리가 만든 결과이며, 미국은 기축통화 지위와 안전자산 수요 덕분에 상대적으로 낮은 물가를 누리고 있을 뿐이다. 달러는 다른 통화 대비 강세지만 구매력은 약화되고 있으며, 달러 하락과 연준의 양적완화 전환이 임박해 결국 인플레이션이 재가속될 것으로 본다. 제프리 시겔이 주택가격 하락을 근거로 인플레이션이 끝났다고 보는 것은 틀렸다. 주택 가격은 하락해도 모기지 금리, 보험료, 재산세, 유지보수비, 공과금 등 실제 주거 보유 비용은 계속 상승하고 있다. 금리 상승이 주택 가격을 누르고 있을 뿐이며, 주식시장 하락은 인플레이션이 자산가격에서 소비자물가로 이동하는 과정이라 안도할 신호가 아니라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
the fact that the entire world is suffering from inflation this is not some kind of fluke this is not some kind of mere coincidence this is because all these major central banks created inflation at the same time quantitative easing didn't just happen in America it happened in Europe it happened in Japan artificially low interest rates were purely an American phenomena all the world's central banks had artificially low interest rates so every Central Bank created inflation they all sowed the Winds of inflation and now people all around the world are reaping the whirlwinds but ironically the main reason that interest rates were so low in Europe was because they were zero in the United States and because Europe wanted to stimulate their economy by having lower interest rates than we had in the United States because we're the reserve currency and so for them to have a stimulative policy they needed to get their interest rates lower than U.S interest rates well we were at zero so the only way to go below zero was to go negative as crazy as that was that's exactly what they did so the reality is America is the primary reason that the entire world is suffering from such high inflation but as a result of that America actually ironically benefits and has lower inflation than everybody else but that benefit has a short shelf life in fact we don't have lower inflation because we're doing things right and the Europeans are doing things wrong we don't have lower inflation because of anything that we've done right we have lower inflation because all the things that the other countries have done wrong so it's all on a relative basis the dollar is only strengthening relative to other currencies it is weakening in terms of purchasing power but because other countries are also making mistakes then they're having inflation we're making similar mistakes the fact is we're actually making the mistakes on a grander scale but because we have the exorbitant privilege of issuing the world's Reserve currency and a currency that everybody buys when they're worried about their own currency we are benefiting from the mutual mistakes that everybody is making and because the dollar is strengthening relative to the euro that is helping keep our inflation low but pushing European inflation higher so it's purely a function of the Dollar's Reserve currency status and Safe Haven buying that is keeping our inflation low it's got nothing to do with anything we've done right it's got everything to do with other people are doing wrong but since we're doing wrong too eventually that's going to come back to bite us and when it will is when the dollar starts to fall which it already is doing and the pace of that fall is going to accelerate as we get more economic data that is weaker than expected and as more and more people begin to figure out that the FED is pivoted and start price icing that in in a bigger way to the Foreign Exchange Market to the gold market and once the pendulum swings in that direction it is going to keep on swinging and so the U.S inflation rate is going to get higher as the U.S economy gets weaker and that is going to prompt even bigger deficit spending we're going to get even more fiscal stimulus and of course monetary policy is probably also going to adjust because there's no way you can have more fiscal stimulus without monetary stimulus to make it all possible so then the FED has to do a U-turn and go from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and that's when the dollar falls through the floor and then inflation goes through the roof and in fact you got Jeremy Siegel out there who's all over the place in the news now claiming that the inflation battle has already been won and that the FED is now way ahead of the curve and it doesn't need to keep tightening as aggressively because it's already won now Jeremy seagull was correct and I gave him props at the time for saying that the Fed was behind the curve for saying that inflation was not transitory and the Fed was making a mistake and Jeremy Siegel was right then he's wrong now the FED is still behind the curb the FED hasn't won the inflation battle it's not even close to winning that battle but what guys like Jeremy Siegel and other people are doing they're pointing to home prices and they're saying look real estate prices are falling that's a sign that inflation is over and he points to the fact that a couple years ago when real estate prices were Rising the Fed was ignoring that and they were just focusing on the shelter component of the CPI which was dominated by owners of cloven rent and that owner's equivalent rent was barely rising and so he said hey the FED should ignore owner's equivalent rent and look at home prices well now he's saying the same thing he's saying the FED needs to ignore owner's equivalent rent that is rising and instead focus on home prices that are falling so at least he's consistent in that respect but the reason I think he's wrong about just looking at home prices is because home prices are not the real determinant of the cost of shelter what you pay to buy a home is like the admission ticket to home ownership but what's important is not what it costs you to get into your house but how much it costs you to stay in your house the cost of home ownership continues to go up at an accelerating rate and that is going to factor into owners of clovert red and in fact for a long time I was talking about the lag between owners equivalent rent and home prices and actual costs related to owning a home because a lot of those costs get factored in to what rent would be but not just rent but what you pay to own a home and the cost that I am referring to are number one the mortgage so even if the price of the house that you're buying comes down if the interest rate on the money you have to borrow to buy that house goes way up he could still cost you more it all depends on how much higher the interest rate is and what Americans are really buying when they buy a home is the monthly payment the actual price they pay for the home is irrelevant because most people are never going to pay off their mortgage all they care about is can I swing the monthly payments so that's what they look at they say how much will the monthly payments be if I buy this house and what's happening now is as prices are dropping mortgage payments are rising and in fact it's rising interest rates that are suppressing home prices because that's the only way somebody could afford to buy when the interest rates are higher is if the purchase price is lower but then you've got to go beyond the mortgage and look at the other costs like insurance insurance rates are skyrocketing I went over that my own insurance rate went up by 40 percent what is driving insurance rates up it's the cost to repair a home if something goes wrong the material costs the labor costs everything they cost a lot more money and so it costs the insurance companies more money to pay claims plus the insurance companies are taking hits to their investment portfolios to their bond portfolios they've got claims coming in from hurricanes so they have got to recover those costs they've got to get it from their policy holder so insurance rates are going up property taxes governments are in trouble they need more money their tax revenues are down their interest costs are up what are they doing they raise taxes now your maintenance costs well they're obviously going up anything that goes wrong is going to cost you a lot more money to fix it and then you've got your utility bills when you own a home you got to heat it in the winter but to then conclude that because the price of a house is dropping that the government has won the Battle of inflation because shelter costs are going down shelter costs are not going down they're going up it's just the asset price that's going down now the same thing is going to happen with the stock market when we start to see lower stock prices we've already have seen lower stock prices that doesn't mean there's less inflation yes the air is coming out of the stock market bubble the inflation is moving from asset prices to Consumer prices and the same thing is going to happen with real estate inflation is going to move out of real estate prices to other prices but this is not a sign of relief
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