원문 보기
hey guys tom here from the investing with the guru investor series that we've been doing on the channel for a month or so now uh this series is where i go and pick one individual investor for each video and i basically go through and give my top three lessons from that particular investor that i've picked up personally now the investor we're going to talk about today is lee liu now if you don't know lilu he is a chinese-born immigrant to america a very famous value investor he's compounded money at something like 30 a year over his investment career uh we haven't had a proper update on lilu's performance track record as far as i'm aware for a few years now so if anyone does have lilu's track record or is somehow involved with himalaya capital and happens to stumble across this video i would love to see his track record and get an update but as far as i know it's somewhere near 30 a year which is frankly probably the best performance track record over a long period of time that i've ever seen and that is one of the core reasons that charlie munger back here has put his money with lee liu lee liu is the only fund manager that charlie has ever put his money with um and that speaks volumes to lilu's both character uh and his investment prowess as well so there's my top three lessons from lilu i'm also going to leave a couple of links down in the description to a couple of talks that lilu has done over the years at various universities uh because i plucked a lot of my top learnings from those talks so i'll leave links down in the description below if you're interested in checking those out but let's get straight into it here are my top three investing lessons from lilu now my first lesson from lilu is to fish with a fisher and this is actually a charlie manga quote but it's quite an app description for how lilu approaches his investments now uh go fishing with a fisher basically describes uh the hunt that value investors are constantly on for trying to find missed pricings in the market so lilu just like any other value investor is basically trying to buy uh something with much more value than the price represents and in order to find those sorts of opportunities you have to find inefficiencies in the market so you have to find businesses that aren't particularly well understood that for some reason are very mispriced maybe they're going through some sort of short-term events uh and the general investor base in that particular market just doesn't understand the true value of that business and we know that people like warren buffett and charlie munger have had a lot of success following that methodology in the us but now there are a lot more investors in the us than back in the 50s or 60s when buffett and manga were really getting up and running and cranking out 30 40 a year type returns with their partnerships and then the early days of burch hathaway there's a lot more efficiency in the us market now than there was 50 years ago just because information is much more available and there's a lot more people looking so lilu has gone basically over to china to invest a large portion of his portfolio being a chinese-born person understanding the culture and being able to speak the language has been a massive advantage for lilu throughout his investment career the chinese market is not as competitive as the us market in terms of investors understanding how to value and how to price businesses and having that really create a lot of efficiency in the markets so lilu has spent a lot of time in that particular hunting ground so if i take that lesson on board for me personally i have to start looking at markets and companies where i think i have an edge over the average investor so you know i look at a lot of u.s companies because i understand many of them quite well but also because i get a lot of investment ideas from things like 13 fs and i follow a lot of american investors but a lesson out of this for me from leeloo is to start looking at my own home turf a little bit more so look at the new zealand market look at the australian market even and also look at companies that are squarely in an area where i have an edge over the average person so for me that's uh looking in uh agricultural businesses companies that uh operate in that sector i feel as though i have a strong edge over the average person so that is lesson number one fish where the fish are focus on areas of the stock market or areas of the world where you're going to be more likely to be able to understand a business better than other people and we're going to be more likely to find those dramatic mispricings in order to make great investments now lesson number two from leeloo is to be right on the big ones uh lilu was giving a talk at colombia i believe it was and someone asked him about investment mistakes and lilu came out and said you know he's made a bunch of mistakes lots of investors have made mistakes and he's no exception to that um but he really said throughout his entire investment career he's never really ever been wrong on a big position um if he's ever gone to the point of putting uh 10 20 30 40 of the portfolio into a particular stock and running um a really big percentage of his net worth in one business he's never really had those types of investments fall over because frankly he doesn't get to that level of conviction uh without being basically certain that he's going to be right and uh the positives of this um may seem fairly obvious but i think it's important to remind everyone of kind of the maths around losing money and why it's really really important to not break warren buffett's rule number one of don't lose money rule number two don't forget rule number one um that's what that's exactly what lilu is talking about here with never been wrong on the big ones if you make an investment and it goes down 50 in order for that investment to get back to par it has to double and it's not easy to find investments that are going to double and that simple maths is a large reason why long-term performance track records can really be damaged by losing money so lilu here is basically saying that if there is a significant chance of you losing money in a particular investment it should not make up a really really large percentage of your portfolio and if you really are confident to an enormous degree that you're right on a particular business well in lilo's words you can do this so i put a load well the next two years this damn thing went up seven times and the truth of the matter is during all those time it was propelled by earnings and so you do all this time you you still did not have any risk it's not like you're hiding you know writing some technology company after the double triple you expose yourself to a huge amount of attacks it wasn't never more than 15 times earnings never now my third and final lesson from lilo is that the risk of any given investment is directly related to the price that you pay um and it gives this example of investing in russian oil which um sounds like a rather dodgy investment uh investing in a part of the world where there's a lot of uncertainty uh and investing in an asset class being oil a commodity where there is also a lot of uncertainty um but what you can do as a value investor is search for something we call a margin of safety this original idea from ben graham that if we can pay a price that is less than the intrinsic value of a particular class of assets or a particular group of assets or whatever it is then we can go a long way in protecting our investment and protecting our downside so lilu gives this example of russian oil in the early 90s russian oil businesses basically became a free market almost overnight as he described it and you had a lot of people with these basically stock certificates ownership and and russian oil um and they didn't really understand what they were or what to do with it now something that they did recognize quite clearly is cash so when people went out and offered um you know these russian individuals with their new stock certificates cash um in exchange for that stock they were more than willing to to hand that stock over in exchange for cash something that they knew what they could do with and this created a lot of mispricing and russian oil i'm so extreme in fact that if you looked at just the balance sheet so forgetting the earnings engine of these particular businesses if you just look at how much proven oil reserves this particular business had you could buy the oil assets of that company for one cent on the dollar you could buy it at a 99 discount uh to the true value of that oil assuming at the time 20 a barrel for that oil so even though there was a lot of uncertainty around investing and russian oil at the time and there's so many unknowns that could happen um you were so well protected by buying at literally a 99 discount to asset values that almost anything could go wrong and you would probably still do okay and in that particular situation something quite dramatic actually did go wrong so um through the 90s after you maybe invested at a 99 discount in these oil assets um we had the asian financial crisis and during the asian financial crisis russia devalued their currency by 90 a massive currency devaluation in other words um if you had the equivalent of say 100 new zealand dollars over in russia um basically over that devaluation period uh when you bought that money back to new zealand you're only getting about 10 new zealand dollars so a massive currency devaluation um but if you bought uh all of those oil assets at a 99 discount to their intrinsic value you still did quite well so let's say that you bought everything for one cent on the on the dollar it went up a hundred times it appreciated to intrinsic value uh you then got devalued by ninety percent and you went all the way back down to you know ten cents on that initial dollar you've still got a 10x you've still got a ten bagger even through this dramatic currency devaluation event because you had such a massive amount of protection um such a massive margin of safety by buying at a big discount initially so those are my top three lessons from lee liu fish where the fish are be right on the big ones and always get a margin of safety the risk of any investment is in the price that you pay so i hope you enjoyed that video if you did please hit like and hit subscribe uh also let me know who you would like to see next lilu was a suggestion by many of you in the comments in the last video so i hope you enjoyed that one and let me know who you want to see next so you can watch some older videos over there if you would like hit subscribe over there if you haven't already and i will see you in the next one cheers
Comments 0