저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
시장 상승 여력은 소수 핵심 섹터와 금리 정책에 좌우된다. 유가 급등과 Fed 긴축 우려가 부담이나, 실질금리(TIPS 10년 약 2.5%) 대비 주식의 밸류에이션 여유(PE 20, 실질수익률 약 5%)가 아직 있어 금리 위협은 '아직'은 아니라고 본다. 과거 대비 현재 밸류에이션이 1999~2000년보다 낮다고 주장하며, 시장이 불안할 때 과감히 매수하기 어렵다는 점을 언급한다. 후반부 AI(엔비디아·OpenAI 관련) 내용은 자막 오류가 심해 발언 취지를 확인하기 어렵다.
다듬은 글
WisdomTree Chief Economist Jeremy Siegel, Professor Siegel, thank you very much for joining us. Since I've outlined the market dynamics, we're kind of hinting at what's going to happen next week with the Fed and interest rates. How much this market will do now will depend on just a handful of key sectors, as well as, of course, future interest rate policy.
Yes, from both factors. I mean, some of the fluctuations were just crazy. Wednesday appears to have been the biggest drop in the "magic seven" relative to the S&P in four years. And you know, there are some analysts who say: should we even call them the " Magnificent Seven"? You know, these incredible ambitions, competition, margin erosion, and on top of that, as you rightly pointed out, next week is very important.
What does Kevin Warsh think about this rise in oil prices? You know, two weeks ago we had WTI at 70. Now WTI is at 90. Uh, and you, you were right. Uh, there are many hopes, but hope dies last, and we've seen hopes shattered in the past. But what does Warsh think about this? That is, is he willing to ignore it or not?
And by the way, I wouldn't be surprised if I saw "hawkish" disagreements during Wednesday's meeting. In years past, Professor, we have heard and perhaps felt some sarcasm about one word that came from the Fed and Fed Chairman J. Powell in his day, and that was the word "transient." We do n't really use it that often these days, but there's still a sense that the transitory or non- transitory nature of inflation will be a focus for the Fed and investors.
Is this perhaps a hawkish bias because we don't want to view something as transitory in terms of inflationary pressures and then be caught off guard? Uh, you, you're absolutely right. I mean, " transient" under Powell, you know, when describing inflation in the COVID era, really became a word, as he said: let's get rid of it.
So, this fear, but, but, is a valid observation. I mean, you know, let's hope this war ends. Oil will become cheaper again. Oil will be in surplus, the price will go back to 60. So that's a much better transition story, honestly, than anything during COVID, when the government was spending trillions of dollars and the Fed was, in my opinion, recklessly increasing the money supply.
There is an argument that if we take the so-called long-term expectations, that is, the difference between inflation-protected bonds and regular bonds, we do not observe such a significant gap. What the Fed calls a "5- year by 5-year" outlook, meaning a forecast beyond a five-year period that is cyclical and distant, does not show any .
If Walsh wants to continue holding the stakes and has a reason for doing so, I'm sure he'll mention it. But many see inflation in the core metrics other than energy, and I think they will speak up and say, "Listen, I think it's time to raise the rate by at least a quarter of a point." So Wednesday will be a very important day indeed.
In addition to all those earnings reports, of course, that come out every day. To what extent do expectations about interest rates and what they might do next affect whether this market is, in your opinion, fairly valued , overvalued, or undervalued? I just want to remind you that earlier today we talked in the Halftime Report about Michael Hartnett of Bank of America sending a note to clients saying that they don't see interest rate levels as a threat to anything other than a bull market in risky assets.
That is, this means that even at 4.7%, approaching 5%, this is not the level that, in our opinion, will undermine the growth and earnings thesis based on market fundamentals. Does this match what your research and your market analysis say today? Not a threat yet, but you know, we're getting closer to it.
We are approaching the peak interest rates we saw when Powell slammed on the brakes to stop much higher inflation three or four years ago. Now, you know, I like to look at what's called the TIPS yield, which is the inflation-adjusted yield . These 10 years, yields rise to two and a half percent. When you have a stock market with a PE ratio of 20, which is almost what we have now after the declines, that means a 5% real return on the market.
So there is still a margin of safety . 2.5%—that's a bit lower than historical rates, but I think it's still an important advantage of stocks over bonds. So I agree that it's not a threat yet, but if we see further growth in real yields, then there are no questions. I mean, it's the other end of the spectrum: you have a denominator of interest rates, a numerator of earnings, and if interest rates go up, any earnings may not be enough to make up for it.
This is your favorite metric, but could you comment on the statement I read in another article today that this is the most expensive market in history. This is what I saw. And that's just ridiculous . I mean... But you see things like that. 1999 and 2000 were significantly more expensive than today.
Yeah, my point was that you see people saying that and nobody is like, " Wow, what a great buying opportunity." People are feeling very anxious right now. And I think what I was trying to say is that the hardest thing would be to buy with both hands right now. Don't you think so? But you have to be crazy to do that.
Although that probably means it's the right move. Well, you know, I think there are three things that are putting pressure on the market. And, first, of course, what's happening in Iran. By the way, if we have a break and the channel opens ... Nvidia's massive a story you definitely w creat end up here?
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Discussions around AI increasingly boil down to two very different possibilities. In one of them, future companies will b others , create their own systems, and ultimatel others. already ready and are build everything themselves. But there are millions of situations where a business cannot simply give its intelligence to a third-party .
Think about industries with high levels of regulation. Think about governments seeking own models and protect their data. And this is where open AI big directions.
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