저자: Dylan · 외국인
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TLT(장기국채 ETF)가 최근 크게 하락했다는 우려에 대해, 지지선 기준으로 가격 움직임일 뿐 '폭락'은 아니라고 설명. 10월 CPI 근원물가는 3.3%(예상 3.2%), 헤드라인은 2.4%(예상 2.3%)로 끈적한 흐름이라 금리인하 기대가 약해졌다고 분석. 실업률 데이터는 설문 응답률 약 70%라 수정 가능성이 있으나 과거 수정폭은 대부분 0.1%p 수준. 반대 논리(연준 금리인하 속 인플레 재가속, 정부채 마이너스 금리 등 음모론성 주장)는 설득력이 낮다고 평가.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys trade Soxs I'm Dylan I'm Vinnie and TLT having a very very rough week we had a lot of comments on the last video on how the S rule is broken never before seen in history and the inflation changed not a deal for TLT so we're going to look at some uh some possible scenarios and some data that's come out and a new antithesis for TLT which I thought was interesting we're we're going to take a look at it um so uh we did this video the the two biggest questions to this were can the data for unemployment be trusted and the the the is TLT tanking um one hate that term no um look at Nicola chart that's a tank okay that's exactly what I was thinking I'm like it's hard for for a bond ETF to tank you know something crypto you know pump and dump or you know something like By Night unprofitable company can do but that's about it there is like multiple comments and um every time I checked to like the the day was like it was down 8% I was like it's hardcore tank um and then uh can the data be trusted valid lot of questions on that and then we're going to look at some uh new inflation data I just want to put this into context so these red lines I you know if you follow this channel I've had these same support lines drawn forever I don't know a year um I just want to zoom in this is where we are right now uh this is 92 this is 88 this is 82 and this is 101 is all right so we're approaching this first support um this is within this is just called price action this isn't called tanking um you know stocks go between prices I'm just going to zoom out real quick uh look how well these hold I don't know like it's perfect look at this hit hit hit hit instead of counting all the hits I just did it uh for you so wow when it's in the middle of these zones that's just it's just price action I don't know a that's crazy yeah I mean it works really well the other thing that highlight really to there is just how depressed the valuation is from like the the all-time high that we saw in TLT as well it's crazy yeah I mean look you have unemployment and well actually I have a good I have a good post for this so basically what's happening you have inflation who is hitting back harder it's still not quite where we want it you have unemployment that is still very very good what do they say in the movie an immovable object versus an Unstoppable Force I've only seen this movie 17 or 18 times so I mean it's a fantastic movie I will say well should have won that's all I'll say about that um so here's the economy we're just just uh you know watching to see what happens essentially now the the core inflation rate came out this was probably why TLT is not having a great week all right so the actual you can see we actually bumped up now core is the one that they really care about um it it it's I guess how do I say more hearty and it gets rid of energy and food right yeah less volatile is the way they would describe it I said Hardy what an idiot y you're so stupid maybe you want Su I don't know I do not feel good that's true so actual 3.3 uh consensus 3.2 and they were forecasting 3.1 so not ideal all right um this is just the inflation rate with everything factored in same thing the actual 2.4 forecasting 2.3 so it's a little bit stickier it's nowhere near where we were but it's definitely a little bit sticky and they're trying to really get down to that 2% rate so theoretically if you have unemployment who's very healthy right now and you have inflation who's being a little bit sticky less likely to have rate Cuts now exactly do I think we're not going to have rate Cuts in the next two they seem very adamant that they're going to I would be shocked if they were more than 25 basis points I don't know about you yeah I same I would be shocked if on 25 basis points my my emotions about what uh fed interest rate cut we're going to see vary multiple times per day uh so it's not exactly the most consistent barometer in the world but you know the Market's been like that I mean the CPI numbers came up this week and you saw the market not really like those numbers and then we got PPI numbers the producer price index came out on Friday and that's why the market was up like 300 points yeah it's back and forth it's crazy because those came in below where CPI would have been right I I think I think Super core inflation is the best one but um here's here's the unemployment rate right so this is what I did that video on last week so you can see we're getting safer but everyone was like hold on you can't trust that data to be fair that's okay I agree it's it's technically not the most accurate a month after so the way that the BLS data is actually calculated is through these surveys they have like five for 600,000 uh surveys that they go through so the first release meaning the first month so month after uh these are how many are actually reporting right so in terms of percent so you have you know hovers around 70ish 70ish per of surveys are reporting so you're missing you know 30% of of all surveys that can definitely change things so people are like well why don't you look at historically how much do they change gotcha all right that was a good question I like that question I'm glad you asked it thank you um here is is just from March 2020 all times that it was actually revised so you can see the first initial you can see the first Revis second revise third revise as you go f farther and further out and then you can see the actual numbered you know this is employment levels and then the actual percent change so to be fair it was usually within 0.1 it's there was one big one here5 and there's one like a couple of tws but most of them are 0.1 most of them are are 0.1 which I mean when you're talking about a a variability of.
3 0.1 is kind of a lot so that can change things so that's fair now absolutely I want to shed some light on the antithesis of TLT okay all right this is this was a trading view um so I'm just gonna read this real quick uh th this person is calling for TLT to be negative uh very soon I don't yes understand how that's going to happen but we have an extremely strange circumstances of the FED parenthesis don't know what that means is cutting rates and has promised to have delivered a soft Landing all the while the number one contributing factor to inflation is wage inflation uh yada y y uh the inflation has gone hyperinflationary on the back of supremely strong and M add faked jobs number the market rallied at the same time to be clear faked is a strong word but they could be revised that that's that's definitely real at the same time the tenure yield shot through the [ __ ] roof uh combine this with the fact that the vix Futures were preeminently disconnected from the vix as a smok screen all this amounts to a fundamental paradigm shift in economic policy that is Shifting fast toward an unbacked dollar this new world order seeks to control the population through the most cost effective means possible it is for this reason alone we will witness any and all government bonds for the first time in history going negative no they will not be in paying interest on these bonds they owe to the other nations they will be avoiding payments before the great collapse America is all of a sudden a third world nation with a populace One Nation Under slavery yeah okay so this person watched World War Z a few too many times I mean I was trying to give the entire position a little bit of credit until I saw a new world order and then I just like oh where's my tin foil yeah I was uh you know what because I have I have a lot of money in this so I I take the anti-thesis I always try to look at it as like okay if I were to bet against this would this be a good bet so I I want to take every single one seriously so like the comments that we have in some our videos are like hey this is a bad idea and it's like an an educational like hey this for this reason super appreciated that's great um this is horeshit so I don't I don't yep y absolutely I mean there are valid criticisms to unemployment not being like uh a true and accurate barometer right because like people talk about la force participation rate people talk about people working in Gig jobs people that underemployed part-time only like there's a lot of things that are valid criticisms of jobs data um but New World Order yeah you kind of lost me there I will say a lot of the comments that were saying that were all saying what you just did all very valid not we're going to be slaves they were all like very valid comments so we appreciate that uh let us know what you guys think I feel good about TLT when this is the antithesis so makes me feel a little bit better let us know what you guys think the old world order will ride again and will profit on TLT
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