저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 테슬라 공매도를 공개했다는 소식을 다루며, 버리의 2008년 금융위기 공매도 성공 이력을 근거로 그의 판단을 신뢰할 만하다고 봄. 버리의 과거 이력: 2008년 금융위기 당시 모기지담보증권(MBS)과 은행 CDS에 대한 공매도로 자신에게 약 1억 달러, 투자자에게 약 7억5천만 달러 수익을 냈다고 설명. 버리의 테슬라 공매도 배경: 테슬라 주가가 과도하게 고평가되어 있다는 판단. 주가수익비율(PE)이 극단적으로 높아 현재 이익으로 투자금을 회수하려면 약 1,027년이 걸린다는 논리를 제시. 머스크 발언 및 내부 메모: 5월 머스크가 자사 주가가 고평가라는 트윗을 올려 당일 주가가 12% 하락했으나, 이후 테슬라 주가는 트윗 이후 약 200% 상승. 최근에는 머스크가 직원들에게 비용 절감을 지시하는 내부 메모를 보내 기대치 대비 수익성이 부족하다는 인식을 드러냈다고 해석. 진행자의 견해: 버리의 공매도 배경은 이해되지만, 머스크는 천재적 경영자로 수익성을 개선할 능력이 있고 투자자들의 테슬라·머스크에 대한 신뢰가 강해 테슬라에 맞서는 공매도는 매우 위험한 게임이라고 봄. 배터리 데이 이후 주가가 약 500달러까지 상승한 점도 언급. 시청자에게 테슬라가 계속 오를지, 하락할지, 경쟁사 대비 10배 나은 전기차가 될지 의견을 물음. 리스크 요인: 머스크의 수익성 개선 가능성, 시장의 강한 테슬라 신뢰, 공매도 포지션의 손실 위험.
다듬은 글
hello everyone welcome to justin best today and today we have a good video today we'll be talking about michael bury the famous shorter yes if you don't know michael burr you're living under a rock because remember i'm not sure most people know of the movie called the big short so basically michael bourie is a big shorter and when he short something you should kind of be aware and put your like antennas on because what he's doing is always words of wisdom and kind of seeing the scope of the landscape of what he thinks even like someone like bill ackman has done the same thing he basically kind of shorted the market and he was right one time when he started the market just recently so when these big investors come out and say stuff like this you should like just to like kind of get an understanding of like what's going on and like what does this mean because it's going to be big news in the uh industry in the market so michael bourie came out and said that he's shorting tesla so before we get into him shorting tesla we got to kind of know his history so when he was running the fun scion fun in uh 2000 2008 he actually called the short of the mortgage-backed securities of these hedge funds and of these banks right because what he saw in the market was madness and he knew it was going to be bad for them so what he did he saw that these banks were um putting credit uh credit default swaps with mortgage-backed securities and you're gonna realize under that in that time like banks and hedge funds were under crazy pressure to like do well up outperform the market so when these banks put these two things together they were selling them at low prices and they thought that this was like amazing and this can go on forever but the thing is that the actual the federal reserve the government actually increased the interest rates of these loans of the federal uh the fed fund rate uh where basically banks are allowed to actually borrow from each other so he they increased the rate of that and that shot up the prices of these mortgage-backed securities interest rates on all these homes so when all those when the prices of the homes went up the interest rates people defaulted and couldn't pay for that and that's what he called so it sent all the financial market down and shooting downwards because people were defaulting people couldn't pay and uh michael brewery actually shorted that and he made around a hundred million dollars for his fun and for his invest he made like 100 million for dollars for himself and around 750 million dollars for his investors so he came out strong at the end of this so with that news you can see how credible this guy is when it comes to shorting so that's why this news is so big because we understand like what he's about and uh when he talks it's very important so he came out and basically was kind of almost daring uh elon musk to actually issue out more shares at these prices because if you think about it elon musk issuing shares of these prices is actually kind of good because you can get so much money at these prices because the prices are so high for what they're doing that if he issues shares right now he can actually get so much money and be actually profitable for the company for doing this even though it might send the stock down for like a little bit it's gonna bounce about because people love elon musk people love tesla so it kind of doesn't really matter if you issue shares and get some money from it if he needs the money but yeah um michael berry is actually daring him to do this and he actually announces that he's shorting tesla so even though michael brewer is shorting tesla i still use i still feel like he's playing a really dangerous game right now because elon's a genius he's gonna find a way to make this company go and be successful so right now i still feel like michael brewer is playing a dangerous game because it's elon musk he's a genius like he's making this company profitable uh it's gonna be included in the smp um when he did that stocks but the stock went up like he's doing a lot of stuff he just had battery day so we've seen the stock shoot up around 500 so that just goes to show you how much people believe in the company and people believe in elon so it's a very dangerous game betting against tesla a genius in that but guys when you look at this too on michael bury side of this equation you have to understand why he's doing this because there's a lot of things leading up to why people think this company is very overvalued over price if you put a dollar in today into tesla it would take a thousand and 27 years to get your money back to become uh profitable to make your money so just thinking about that you realize that's how high the pe is and how much the price to earnings and how expensive the company is so this is what i think michael berry is seeing and then you got to remember in may um elon actually tweeted that his stock is overvalued and that actually uh sank the share price 12 percent that day so when you're thinking about it he has reasons why he's shorting the stock and even since that tweet um tesla has shot up 200 since that tweet so tess is still doing good things but you can see why michael bury has his reasonings for shorting uh tesla because he just thinks it's not profitable enough uh and it's not gonna it's not gonna live up to that huge overvaluation of his pe i feel the real reason why michael berry just came out and he's more upfront about it is because elon just came out with a game of pennies basically an internal memo telling his employees just kind of cut to cut costs and see if they can help save money in the company right now because he sees that people have really high expectations for this company and that it needs to become like more profitable than what it is now so this internal memo is kind of showing you that how elon still thinks his company is very overvalued right now and the that people really see this company growing really really really big and that's what's priced into the stock right now so that's what elon's seeing and this internal memo kind of confirms that for probably michael berry and a lot of people so we'll see how elon plays this like what do you guys think about this company is it gonna continue to go up is it going to come back down to earth um is tesla could be the next best ev ever made is it going to be is it going to be 10 times better than the competition um what do you guys think about this and the internal memo and michael berry actually shorting tesla guys if you like this video can you please like it subscribe to my channel and i'm going to be making another video very soon peace
Comments 0