저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
거시적으로 글로벌 리플레이션(물가 상승 기대)이 나타나고 있으며, 미국 금리 상승이 곧바로 신흥국 약세를 의미하지는 않는다는 주장. 브라질: 최근 약 1년 반간 견조한 수익을 냈고 과거 5년 고점까지는 아직 멀어 상승 여력이 크다고 봄. 진행 중인 개혁이 국가에 큰 영향을 줄 것이며, 조정이 와도 기회로 활용하겠다는 입장. 인도: 중국보다 빠르게 성장하고 있으며 모디 정부의 세제 개혁과 국영기업 지분 매각 발표를 긍정적으로 평가. 대형주보다 중소형주에 흥미를 보이며 상대적으로 덜 오른 점을 강조. 인구는 10~15년 내 중국을 넘어설 것으로 전망. 다만 인프라 취약, 주별 세금 차이 등 문제가 있으나 연 6~9% 성장 유지 시 1인당 소득 증가 가능하다고 봄. 러시아: 제재로 투자 제약이 크지만 풍부한 자원, 기술 인재, 성장하는 소비 시장(대형 소매업체 실적 양호)을 이유로 다른 신흥국과 같은 성장이 가능하다고 언급. 종목/자산 언급은 구체적 목표가 없이 방향성 위주이며, 중국·BRIC 전반도 상승 중이라고 설명.
다듬은 글
welcome to trading nation I am Brian Sullivan we are pleased to be joined today by Mark Mobius executive chairman of Templeton emerging markets group at Franklin Templeton author of many many books and Global Traveler for a number of decades now markets pleasure to speak with you again thanks for joining us thanks Brian you know it's interesting because before we get specific let's get macro the whole world has come up many people say oh well it's the Trump trade or the the GOP trade but we're seeing a global gain with the exception of a few markets most are higher is what's behind it is this really truly a global reflation yes there's no question about that you know we're seeing with the talk of interest rates in the u.s.
going up people are now expecting a higher inflation so that if we get negative rates in a situation like that of course equities are exciting and for emerging markets people are so afraid of higher interest rates not realizing that higher interest rates in the u.s. don't necessarily mean a down market sometimes interest rates go up and the markets go up and this has been happening with emerging markets emerging markets are going like gangbusters if you look at BRIC countries Brazil India Russia China they're all up and a long way to go I believe yeah Brazil's had a great run about a year and a half of solid returns so you do believe that there is more to come from Brazil how come well if you look at the highs the previous five year highs we're a long way from that so we've got a long way to go and the reforms taking place in Brazil are gonna have tremendous impact on the country so we're very positive on Brazil of course they're gonna be corrections along the way no question about that but generally speaking the long-term trend is very good so you'd do us if we get a slippage in Brazil you'd view that as an opportunity for you or your clients to acquire more exactly exactly India is not a country that we have spoken about very much but India is always the middle of big change India's markets done well and you remain very optimistic on India are you just buying the the Sensex their their their main index or how do you how do you play you're bullish view on India what's most exciting in India are the small and 'i'm cap companies you know they got thousands of companies that listed and these small and medium cap have not moved up as much as a large cap so lots of excitement in that area and the the interesting thing about India is that first of all it's growing faster than China and number two with Modi and his reforms it's really a very very exciting picture particularly with the tax reforms and most importantly recently they announced they're going to be selling some of the state-owned companies shares into the market and that's very very good it means more reform coming yeah and it's you know we forget that India will be at current rates will be a larger country in population than China in about 10 or 15 years I mean they're they're population is growing much faster but with that comes problems as well mark I mean their infrastructure is notoriously weak they're unable to build at the scale that that China is their GNP per capita is still much much below China why are those things worrying you well they're worrying because you know you've got so many divisions within India which is why the tax reform is so important your each state has had their own taxes and the differences between states which created a lot of chaos now they're reforming that and that's exciting but I think the important thing about India is that if they're able to keep up this six seven even eight or nine percent growth they'll be able to do the same thing that China is done despite the population increase they'll be able to increase per capita incomes so I see that happening and don't forget as people get richer the the growth and population that tends to be more static the birth rates go down any reason to invest in Russia obviously Russia's but in the news for many many reasons lately but I wonder it's one of the few markets I referenced at the top that is not done well yes because the sanctions have been a real problem I mean we can't invest in many companies in Russia because of the sanctions but there are many good reasons for investing in Russia first of all they've got tremendous resources secondly they've got incredibly intelligent people with good know-how in technical terms and the consumer mark has been growing they're some of the big retail they are doing very well so we can see the same kind of growth in Russia that we've seen in many of the other countries
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