저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 트럼프 감세·규제완화로 성장률이 높아지면 연준이 예상보다 훨씬 공격적으로 금리를 올려야 하며, 연준이 이를 따라잡지 못하면 'wrong'이라는 주장. 경제 전망: 소규모 기업에게 오바마케어 규제 완화와 감세가 긍정적이며, 지난 16년간의 규제 기조가 바뀌면 성장률이 장기적으로 0.25~0.5%p 상향될 수 있다고 봄. 다만 장기 성장률은 4%가 아니라 3% 수준으로 예상. 통상 리스크: 무역 정책을 잘못 펴지 않아야 하며, 상호 이익이 되는 거래만 성사된다는 입장. 금리 전망: 연준이 실질금리 1% 수준에 머물러 너무 뒤처져 있으며, 인플레이션 2.5% 수준을 고려하면 실질금리는 더 높아야 함. 3월·6월·9월·12월 연속 인상 가능성을 언급하며 연내 3~4회 인상을 시장이 반영해야 한다고 주장. 옐런의 3년간 실질금리 1% 유지 발언은 틀렸다고 비판. 시장 영향: 금리 인상이 빨라지면 시장이 충격을 받을 수 있으나, 10년물 금리 2.5% 수준은 여전히 낮아 주식 밸류에이션 부담은 제한적이라고 봄. 연준 자금 환경은 상대적으로 여전히 쉬움. 리스크 요인: 프랑스 대선 결과가 감세 기대와 맞물려 변수. 연준 인상 속도가 기대보다 빠를 가능성 존재. 연준 커뮤니케이션: 연준이 국제 요인의 상방 가능성을 더 언급해야 하며, 비둘기파적 시각을 비판. 출연자 전망: 낙관적 성장 시나리오를 전제로 금리 인상 가속을 예상하는 강세 입장을 유지.
다듬은 글
if you're a small business you there's nothing negative on the horizon nothing what's negative they're going to give you less regulations for ObamaCare they're going to give you a tax cut everything is is this everything is neutral to positive they can come their way versus an an atmosphere for the last 16 years let's call that's been regulation regulation regulation we break out of the GDP dos people people say population and I think these guys again are too negative not listen they're not going to get to 4% growth in the long term they'll get to three you know maybe let's say if it was two and a quarter maybe you pick up a half percent just with this dul three quarters for 17 no no I'm saying I'm saying I think the long run in a deregulatory could be a quarter half Point higher if you talk about 17 or 18 yeah you could be you could be three and a you could be much higher in the near term we can do it again a lot of people think you're saying do it again that they're going to get the higher growth track it's just the demographics there say we do listen the other side of it is if we don't do anything stupid on trade right don't forget that we can do hopefully we we we do smart trade policies here and don't get crazy on on on crazy trade policies and you know do things that are mutually it has to be mutually beneficial for your partner to do a good deal that's the way you get a good deal done we've done a lot of deal possibly screw this all up I mean we were talking before about the FED being behind the aall in terms of raising interest rates is a risk here that the FED has to catch up so much that it's a shock to the markets I mean I know you say wait waking me up when it's 4% but Traders could easily freak out in advance uh if you see a sharp move higher in rate well listen there're so far behind the curb that they you know they can they may have to if you get after the French elections and you get these tax cuts they're going to have to move incredibly fast as I said that one it's crazy Janet Yellen was saying three years again for 1% real that's just wrong it's wrong if you get the good things happening it's not wrong if there's no tax cuts necessarily certainly if the French election goes the wrong way it's not wrong not wrong but it's going to be dead freaking wrong wrong I'm not going to let me let me not pull a punch here wrong if you get the good things to happen which is a distinct possibility you're going to bet against these tax things you're going to bet against the French election you better be you better be ready and the market has to get ready for June increase September increase December increase and maybe more than that this is fallacy that says the FED won't go in non um uh press conference uh no wrong they'll go a lot because they're so far behind where that 1% real if you're running two and a qu% inflation by the end of the year and and you have all these things happen I think the real rate should be higher sooner because you have all these things happen maybe you should be three and a quarter so she's not going to be three and a quarter at the end of the year if she goes up right now if she just does 91 if they do the 25 which is a 100% chance now you're 91 basis points but is if1 Basis points they raise more rapidly than anyone's expecting more than three rate hikes this year are stocks then going to look more expensive just relatively speaking well again you know look at the moldable the multiples aren't some people that you have people on the other day they were talking about 20 MBL that's the 10 years's just not that high a yield and the rates are not that high and even if they do go four times four times this year forget about two times or three times four times they'll be at 191 so they'll still be fairly low versus where they should be so they moving faster than people expect to Melissa's Point going easy money out there okay relatively easy money now the question is they have to go at a pretty good Pace not to get further behind right so the question is how many times do they have to go this year so I'm sure that the FED funds odds are going up as we're speaking and there's a better chance that they'll go three times more this year than two times more this year the question is should there be pricing in a fourth time this year and only a fourth time because it's not necessarily bad if they do the fourth time because you don't want them going seven you don't want them to go eight times next year right okay you want them to have some sort of pace that they're not so ramp up so the she you know they're going to talk next week they got to recognize this they should talk about potentially the upside of international factors forget about this tilting this this this drogy fantasy nonsense you know crapo stuff that he put out you know heroin induced uh sort of stuff that he put out it it's it have to talk about the upside to things that's enough about this downside we've had eight is a downside why do we got to be negative let's be positive
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