저자: TwoStupidGuys · 외국인
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알리바바는 분기마다 자사주 매입을 공시하며 주주환원을 적극 실행 중이다. 직전 분기 약 58억 달러 매입으로 발행주식이 2.3% 감소했고 잔여 매입 한도는 약 260억 달러다. 자유현금흐름 연 약 220억 달러로 매입 여력이 크다. 다만 매입 평균가가 주가 75달러 이상 구간에서 이뤄져 저가 매수는 아니라는 점을 짚었다. 중국 자본 해외 반출 우려 때문에 일부 직접 매입 등 우회 구조도 언급됐다. 미국 대형 기술주(Mag 7) 쏠림과 중국 주식 숏 쏠림이 해소되는 전환 가능성도 제시됐다.
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for as Alibaba shareholders we got some interesting information I'm GNA talk about the China trade a little bit too and what is going on with Alibaba stock that may actually underpin the stock and change the tides finally maybe it's like the fifth time we've said that yeah I know right like you know it's like uh what's the thing about Insanity yeah that's me okay eventually we're going to be right be 2045 you know what's funny time goes by I'm actually becoming less concerned I'm more and more convinced in my own Theory which means I'm probably should be admitted to a psych somewhere but that's my entire that's my issue I agree on both accounts yes I love it have you ever seen like this chart before to look Vaguely Familiar or not really I have not seen this okay so this is based upon a Bank of America survey of portfolio managers and what they're basically asking is what is like the most crowded trade in the market and long mag seven is the most C to trade of the market and kind of ties in with some other stuff we're going to talk about in another video um but short China equities is number two yeah so it's very interesting now that we're approaching maybe a pivot point where you know we saw this week with uh finally CPI achieving like a negative number on a month month over month basis that the mag 7 had like a not so great day that the Russell like 2K small cap index literally took like the rins off and blew went up 4% over the course of two days uh which is another video we did and I am looking to be right maybe on that one um and then uh the other thing we saw was we got like a nice little bounce out of Baba over the last few days too so maybe we are starting to see these crowded trades unwind and you know reverse which is kind of cool possibly So based off of this chart it looks because it's February March April so gray blue dark blue so magnificent 7 is becoming less crowded less people are shorting China though there's but at upt but it's really Japan equities more people are piling into that yeah okay yeah I mean yeah that's something Buffett was well ahead of on two you know I I can't remember do a specific video about that but it's definitely been mentioned but yeah o over time we're gonna start to see a rotation away from the most crowded and popular trades towards things that are less desirable and Alibaba has been in the background doing the right things during this entire time period right so up 8% over five days you know good siiz mood it's move it's still in like in their typical or most recent Channel I guess you could say um on a month over month basis of 5% you know it's not a significant move um you know they kind of have been speculating around this level for for quite a while uh as it begins to hopefully coil up but what I want to say is that Alibaba management has been super diligent and actually putting money where their mouth is uh now that they've had this kind of regime change so this is now the third quarter where we've released received this information right right after the quarter closes they're putting out a press release saying how many shares do we buy back right over the previous quarter they're not waiting until earnings like they had done previously they're doing it like a separate press release every single quarter immediately after closes effectively so this is the release we got yeah transparency is great and they're really showing you that they they're they're trying to to return this their massive cash Ward and uh their continual cash earning power back to shareholders and use it appropriately um so in the quarter that just ended they had repurchased it was equivalent to 77 million 80 s is uh 5.8 billion US doar were used in repurchases in the most recent quarter all right that is 5.8 billion okay their trilli 12 month free cash flow was like $22 billion so that that's that would be effectively everything that they they earned in the quarter approximately if last year and this year are about the same in terms of free cash flow bases right um they they do highlight here that they had a net reduction in shares in one single quarter of 2.3% okay you know what that says to me Dylan that's that's pretty incredible that's a lot if they keep doing this for like 38 more quarters you and I will be the majority shareholders of all um one awesome two okay I'm I'm gonna be a downer here look awesome 2.3% super cool how is the average price 8080 they have been under 75 for almost the entire quarter they had to have bought like at the worst I mean it's still awesome don't get me wrong I'm been picking now but like well I don't remember Ife but it was somewhere where they mentioned that some of the some uh all right uh these purchases were made in both us and Hong Kong our Sher purchase program I want to say I read somewhere that part of the story was that they were it was a like direct sales transactions that they were engaging so they buying it directly from uh large institutional shareholders rather than you know just simply being on the market so they're not getting as quite a good deal there which is kind of interesting why they chose to do that but got it I don't know that's above my my level here um this chart is pretty cool too this is going back um for about two and a half years here looking at the Sher purchase recar this look at the dollar figure up here in the top row 2.1 3.3 1.91 3.1 1.7 2.9 4.8 5.8 does that that show to you a commitment in repurchasing shares aggressively at these current prices this is exactly what we complained about in the uh September and December quarter when we did videos was that they had so much authorized for Sher rep purchases and they weren't doing it and that time the price it was almost the same I can't remember but it was very very close yeah so in two quarters you have almost 4% of the company bought is yeah that's I mean back probably over that yeah the um still have $26 billion dollar in authorizer share rep purchases left remaining right I wanted to show you just this most recent quarter if you want to slide yourself over here so this is from macro Trends um just to show you how aggressive the step down or or increased pace of their sharey purchases were on a quarter for quarter basis here like how ridiculous that looks yeah that's gorgeous man yeah good job do you remember another company that like has done something like this in the past really aggressively and you know it did well for shareholders because of it are you purposely not showing me the company right now so I have to guess I'm gonna go Apple that's Apple okay cool all right this is Apple's share repurchase or shares outstanding over time uh just just showing like know absolute like power that can happen particularly when the company's signicantly undervalued so you know you're still looking at back here in this kind of phas for yeah I know you're not comparing Apples to Apples pun fly intended there um but uh it is still really cool to see just the the power that that can ultimately achieve for shareholders and I I think that under the new management they I love it that was the wrong button I haven't used that soundboard in a year it was supposed to be the bom damn it yeah yeah basically yeah when any time someone throws up Point like that so we're going to update this with the most recent uh next earnings when they come out they actually haven't even announced the date for their earnings yet which is pretty typical for them they'll finally announce it and then it'll be reported within a week or two of the the date where they they plan to um but this is from the most recent quarter you know don't forget like I said this is that $22 billion free cash flow in the tring 12 months so that's a company that really has a lot of money to deploy uh continually flowing in for these sh rep purchases you know $6 billion almost this quarter uh but they do have this massive cas cash word there was a news article a while ago about um they did a special uh share uh what do you call it um debt offering in order to repurchase shares now Alibaba Management's talked a little bit about this in the past is there's some uh concern about the CCP and whether or not they'll allow all that $62 billion almost in cash to go offshore for share purchases they one of the ways they can kind of work around that is that Alibaba could basically you know take dead on with one subset of their ities and you know use that for share rep purchases and then you know pay the the loan back with another entity so that's kind of the the the question or thought process behind um them leveraging up in certain areas of the business I believe you know this is just my outside stupid guy interpretation of what's going on but I think that's why they they do that or to buy that share as aggressively as possible and get as much of this money offshore and back towards like shareholder value in Pockets hopefully so we'll see so quick question they they spent 4.8 last five point this quarter you said they have 25 billion left uh an authorized yeah $26 billion in authorized your purchases through March of 2027 I think okay that was my question was it was it through 2027 okay cool wow that's I mean that's a lot okay I mean you know in the next couple quarters you might see an announcement of them upsizing the Cherry purchas program that's always nice yeah I mean that's great news 2.3% of the company in one quarter that's crazy so that's great for me um I I'm sitting at like 390 shares I don't remember where you're at but I have a little bit of jd2 but man that's awesome they're finally doing it little jd2 but think about it from this point you own almost 400 shares by their repurchases Loan in the last quarter you basically got another eight shares so eight times eight $640 in like value yeah that was returned to you I much prefer that over dividends forever so way better use of capital in my opinion all right guys in my opinion see you later
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