저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 50bp 금리인상 우려는 과도하며, 인플레이션 피크는 6~7월 CPI에서 나올 것으로 본다. 9월 FOMC(9/21 전후)가 실제 위험 가격 반영 시점이며 그 전까지 시장은 조정 후 반등 가능성이 크다. 나스닥은 피보나치 61.8% 되돌림까지 상승 여지가 있고 공매도 잔고 높은 소형주에 숏커버링 기대. 러-우 협상 진전 가능성도 긍정적으로 본다.
다듬은 글
oh my gosh what is that is that a Roblox call that's up a hundred and one percent like the Dalmatians that I took some teddies on this morning that I just bought two days ago oh damn yes it is and if you want every single Buy sell alert that I make every move I make in this market link down below there's a coupon code expiring March 25th and I'd love to have you it comes with daily live streams where we talk about my strategies in the market but also this video is brought to you by public.com if you want up to a thousand dollars in free stock make sure to go to metcaven.com public you get they don't use payment for order flow and they've got a great community of folks who buy and sell stocks and share their perspectives so go to metcaven.com public and thank you to public for sponsoring today's video and not using payment for order flow or selling our data alright folks let's get into the video all right look now there's a lot of murmuring going on that all of a sudden the Federal Reserves is going to go back to rug pull mode and they're gonna go with that 50 basis point hike why because we know that Bullard and even Waller are talking about how we need a 50 basis point hike and in my opinion mainstream media is trying to get us nervous about the potential for this actually happening well folks let me give you my opinion of whether or not this this even remotely possible now those of you in the course member live streams you already know because we talked about this this morning uh along with a lot of other things but folks we need to understand Jerome and his leadership at the Federal Reserve like him or not trust him or not you gotta understand what's happening and then you'll have a little bit of a better understanding as to whether or not we're going to get that 50 basis point rug pull and honestly does it even matter because where are we trading right now and which we'll look at in a moment as well and what is a likely course for this Market especially over the next day 10 days or so where we have this weird relative quiet period yeah we'll talk about that as well okay so first we know based on the last SCP that we got from the fed and Jerome Powell's talk we know that our expectations for rate hikes have uh changed a little bit in fact our expectation is that we're actually not going to see a larger move in uh any of the uh uh feds anything basically until we get another three months of inflation data why because Jerome Powell told us that we're going to delay when they expected Peak inflation to hit and so a lot of folks are like oh but Kevin I'm worried about you know the March CPI data coming out in April or I'm worried the fed's gonna rug pull us or whatever I I get it I'm I would be worried about a Fed rug pull too I just don't think it's realistic why because we we saw this coming that the peak should have been may but we had the quote Game Changer of war and that Peak was delayed to about Q3 2022 about three to four months so that pushes us back to getting inflation data in June and July right okay so if we get inflation data in June or July now and that's going to be where the Federal Reserve sees a peak then if the Federal Reserve believes that the peak is going to be either June or July then obviously we would not expect to see a down in the CPI data until actually the August CPI or potentially even the September CPI let's go with August though because this uh August aligns more exactly with what j-pow told us right so if we get an inflection point down in inflation in August then it doesn't really make sense or if this is what the FED currently believes it doesn't really make sense for the FED to say that's it you know what next meeting in May let's go for the 50 basis point hike which is just sort of the rumor mill that the mainstream media is perpetuating right now especially on Triple witching day which generally tends out it tends to be a nothing Burger it's no surprise to me that yesterday futures for the NASDAQ were down one percent and the NASDAQ today is almost actually up one percent it's honestly quite glorious Futures suck anyway so the May 50 basis point hike don't think it's gonna happen because it's literally a contradiction to what they believe which is that inflation's going to Peak in June July again you might not believe this you might think we're going stockflation this is going to go on forever that's fine but this is all about what we actually think they're going to do right so this would mean that the first CPI report where we should definitely have an inflection down in CPI and it could happen earlier which that would just be good news that by the way write that down as a good Catalyst if CPI actually goes down in June or July that's a solid Catalyst I'm talking all August CPI though for being past the peak and actually seeing a real decline across the board like like Broad and sustained kind of decline across the board you know headline inflation if let's say by June July we're at you know seven percent headline going back to like five or six percent month over month decline like certainly negative we need to see negative on the month over month that's very important we start getting negative negative and a negative Market's gonna be very very very happy big boom time Catalyst right okay so the August CPI report doesn't come out until the beginning of September in fact we could just type in schedule of CPI releases into Google you go to the BLS website Bureau of Labor Statistics and make sure you're looking at 2022 because sometimes you get confused and you look at 2021 it comes out September 13th okay great so this comes out September 13th you know what's really funny and convenient is that the Federal Reserve has a meeting on September 20th and 21st 21st is when they'll do their press conference huh how convenient so if they believe the peak is going to be in the summer the post Peak should be August CPI that means the Federal Reserve meeting of September in my opinion has the highest likelihood of actually being the point where the FED says okay we didn't get our Peak it's still going up time for a 50 basis point hike this is in my opinion when the risk comes and that risk starts getting priced in in these CPI reports not March like don't even talk to me about March nobody cares about March we know March is going to be an sh-90 show okay it's old news now the other cool thing that happened September 21st is we actually get a new summary of economic projections which is also something that reiterates why I believe that the Federal Reserve would first consider a 50 basis point hike September 21st why because when they give us a summary of economic projections what do they tell us well they tell us what they believe inflation will do in 23 and 2024 right and so what a beautiful thing thing to be able to tell the markets hey let's just say uh that the peak didn't happen right and August CPI goes up so what a beautiful thing to be able to say Hey you know uh the API what am I writing the uh oh my gosh Kevin geez should have another drink the August CPI went up oh no this is bad right and we got that new September 13th now September 21 the FED comes out and says sorry we have to do the 50 BP hike because the August CPI actually went up and we didn't end up getting past the Peak at now inflation is getting more entrenched this is a problem we have to hike a little bit faster this would be bad it'd be a negative U-turn right but at the same time they'll be able to say oh but don't worry again believe him or not oh but don't worry you'll see in our new summary of economic projections that we actually believe the peak is gonna come in q1 23.
you know like that's entirely a potential reality but it can I don't actually believe any of this fear actually gets priced into the market until uh well probably the June July cpis which those come out on July 13th and August 10th hey that's Lauren's birthday and and then of course the August CPI which we already said comes out on the uh 13th of September so that that's very very important okay so now we need to talk about the market okay obviously I mean tassels locking on the door of 900 again this is just ridiculous you know somebody we talked about this a little bit as well earlier in the course member livestream people are like oh we should be selling calls sell calls I'll call sell calls right look I like selling calls when we have a little bit of euphoria in the market this is not Euphoria for Tesla like if we ran YOLO level to like 1100 I don't think we're gonna get to this all-time high again that we saw in December not anytime soon but if we went you know we broke through this 100 day moving average and and we start running again and we get to like an 1100 resistance level which I think could be realistic for for Tesla that might be a place to sell some calls because now it's like okay now things are going a little crazy maybe you know certainly if we went to 1200 it'd be like okay yeah maybe maybe now I'll take a little bit of downside protection but somebody asked me they're like Hey Kevin I heard somebody sold Tesla calls and another YouTuber at 7.75 and I'm like what possessed you to do that like look at how how little time we actually spend in the 700s you know you're coming right back out of the 700s that's why when you see Tesla 7 you buy uh you know I think I've got about six or seven million dollars of purchases on in Tesla in the 700s here just in the last three weeks no they're not all of the 700 some of them are in the 800s uh but they're all positive now which is well because it's almost 900 which is crazy but anyway the point is uh take a look at this this is a little bit easier to understand go over here to like QQQ okay so in my opinion it's gonna be very difficult for our Market to get back back to this this 100 level but I do think it's very very easy for us to potentially uh get to a 61.8 Fibonacci here and we could potentially see this move here 61.8 uh quite frankly over the next two weeks and that's because we've got this weird quiet period where we don't get Labor Statistics until the first week of actually uh April 1st this time which is kind of wild you usually when Friday falls on the first of the month is it is that Friday that's our anniversary by the way uh yeah it is a Friday usually they delay the report to the next Friday but they're actually going to deliver it on time on probably because they're 31 days in March they're actually going to deliver it on time on April 1.
so we're not gonna have a jobs report until April 1 which means really next week the 21st to the 25th there's not a lot of news that's going to come out I mean maybe we'll get like you know some miscellaneous updates to to nominal reports the pmis the pces or whatever who cares uh these are all scheduled so these are not really maybe so it's just yeah maybe those will be things the market actually cares about but otherwise I'm a little bit quiet for about a week uh and I think that's actually what the market likes right now is the opportunity to sort of digest what the Federal Reserve has said digest some maybe new fed speak that comes out about this fear about the 50 BP hike which I do not think is realistic until September and uh and really take an opportunity to look at at the market and say hey where where's some leftover value still and first of all I mean if you look at certainly you look at like Visa I mean 215 I think there's some leftover value there you know end phase start is starting to get up there again a little bit a little bit on the rich side you've got a lot of movement in certainly the smaller caps right now I'm a little nervous about Mullen I think that momentum is going to die a lot quicker than people think but I mean you look at some of these like the matterports the sofas the affirms even Neo shift Neo you've got the China risk obviously though but some of these small caps even I hate to say it but like tattoo Chef or or uh you know a much better company palantir right like these companies still so very highly shorted and there's a likelihood not necessarily for a short squeeze but over the next week if we start getting this this Fibonacci return we start I mean look at this now now we're making full closes we're back testing our support lines over here right we're fully closing above some of these uh these lower support lines now we're starting to potentially get to where short sellers say hey you know what we made a lot of money writing these things down time to cover covering is buying and I think you're going to see a lot more buying pressure on some of these Smalls than you are on um uh on on some of the larger companies that have already recovered substantially so we'll see uh we'll see I'm very optimistic about the next few weeks and quite frankly I'm also optimistic about negotiations with Putin and Ukraine Putin's got a demand a six demands uh zielinski softened his stance Putin softened his stance they're still both somewhat you know apart obviously otherwise we'd have a deal but uh you know zelenski has been open to the idea of a face-to-face meeting with Putin and so is Putin Putin has just I think yesterday actually yesterday the day before one of those expressed his willingness to potentially meet zelinski face to face I don't know about you but personally I believe that could Mark the end of the war because they'll come up with a negotiated settlement and uh that negotiated settlement will only work if because I you could picture this okay Putin says look give me the Don boss give me some separatist regions agree to be neutral no no EU no NATO uh you can be militarized in certain parts of your country but I need you to recognize Crimea I need you to recognize uh don boss and these sections as as Russian uh and we'll have uh we'll call these a demilitarized zone or we'll create a demilitarized zone or whatever but at the same time I need you to go to the International Community and I need McDonald's back I need Coca-Cola back I need Amazon web services back I need some of these sanctions lifted and we'll we'll agree to this and then zelensi is going to turn around and say the International Community look we've come up with something that's fair it'll stop the death uh International Community we ask your help in making this negotiation happen and very quickly everything u-turns I I hope that happens very soon I think with a high degree of certainty I shouldn't say certainty I should say confidence because it can't be certain I can be confident but I could be wrong uh that this will happen by May yeah I think that'll be a boon for the market so I think really the big negatives are priced in uh and this is why I'm as heavy in the market as I am uh you know do be careful on on like calls volatility is very high your Theta Decay is very high so if we trade sideways and you're buying calls you're gonna get reamed very fast but you could also make profit very very quickly like look at the beginning of the video I showed you the Roblox call that's awesome uh and and more of that can happen but do it with smaller portions of your portfolio uh so just just be careful with with calls like that uh okay good so these are my thoughts on the market right now I'm I'm bullish I'm happy follow me and every move that I make and the course member uh groups linked down below stocks and psychology money for trade alerts any course will get you into the live streams where we talk about you know moves that I make and I explain more rationale and Theses on the market or if I start having negative feelings or whatever that's where you hear about them first positive feelings you hear about it all there first uh check out our sponsor link bye
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