저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드의 ARK Invest는 2020년 3월 이후 장기 보유자에게 큰 손실을 안겼고, 발표자는 향후에도 하락이 더 나올 수 있다고 경계한다. 성과 비교: 발표 시점 기준 ARKK는 5년간 S&P500(약 68%)에 뒤처졌고, 나스닥 2000~2002년 닷컴 붕괴 차트와 ARKK 차트 패턴이 유사하다고 주장한다. 나스닥은 당시 추가로 약 25% 더 하락했다. 매매 행태 비판: 테슬라를 매도(약 1200만 달러)하고 GM을 600만 달러 매수한 점, 실적 발표 직전 유니티·코인베이스·텔라닥·쇼피파이 등을 매수한 점을 문제 삼는다. 이들 종목은 실적 후 크게 하락했다(유니티 약 30%, 코인베이스 5일 약 60%, 텔라닥 약 40%, 쇼피파이 5일 18%). 유전체·헬스케어 리스크: 유전체 기업은 치료보다 시술·치료 수익 구조인 미국 헬스케어에서 수익화가 어렵다고 보며, 현금가치 이하로 거래되더라도 이익 실현 구조가 불투명하다고 평가한다. 규제·자동화 우려: 자율주행 트럭·택시 등 자동화가 일자리를 줄일 수 있고, 규제와 정책이 혁신 기업에 불리할 수 있다고 본다. 향후 전망: 연준이 금리를 계속 올릴 것이며 경기침체를 유도할 수 있고, 성장주 약세장이 이어질 가능성을 제시한다. 베어마켓 랠리는 있을 수 있다는 입장.
다듬은 글
hey guys mike here so kathy wood and arkham vest has managed to do something that i honestly didn't think i would see is it's really surprising uh to where things are i don't know about you but you know every week or month it goes by i just keep thinking myself i can't scratch my head more and more of what her and her team are doing the moves they are making and what they're doing with the money the hard-earned money people have earned to piling her etfs right understand this is nothing personal i've never owned a single fund she has so i didn't enjoy the ride up i didn't get to you know cry on the way down and which is still going down you know on maybe a few stocks she's ever owned and so and also appreciate her for the open source for the information the fact she does share all her purses and stuff which allows us to look at this and just think my god what are you doing like it's just stunning which is what i'm gonna get into in this video with you you may be unaware of but it's you know everybody knows about the fall and i'm going to show you a chart i actually put together and i was playing around with it didn't know this would work and it did and you know so from here on out you can actually say you've got to witness a crash whether you lifted the first one or it even was old enough to remember it now i'm going to show that to you and it's stunning when you see this chart and i did find something on twitter and i saw this and this is like if you bought into art in march of 2020 and you say you've held the whole time and let us know in the comments if you want those folks to me this signifies the ride right here and it's so accurate and maybe i'm wrong i mean was that not accurate that's what is that what it felt like if you've held this whole time as it continues to go down as i'm recording this right now with the markets but what you know is stunning is right now as of i think it was yesterday it officially happened i believe the s p has officially equipped arcade's performance over the last five years i mean look at that so the sp is up 68 percent rx up 49 so about 18 and you can see right there where art fell below it yesterday so probably have a few days ago but you know that's that's just stunning and by the way if you get something out of this please hit that like subscribe button guys share the video i really appreciate that and just to show you what i was talking about by the dot-com bubble effect or what you've actually got to witness here check this chart out so this is rk right here and what i'm going to do is i'm going to copy these candlesticks right here this pattern of the rise and the fall of our k and then we'll go in here and i'm going to pull up the nasdaq and then we're going to go ahead and actually paste this right here over the 2000 to 2002.com bubble and we'll see as you can see right here it matches up almost perfect i mean it's not you know totally perfect but man it's about as close as you can get to matching right here right so we're going to paste it in i'm going to go ahead and just pull it down and see i hadn't adjusted anything i'm just literally laying it over and look at that right there again not 100 perfect but man and if you look it didn't stop that's where they're at now but if we actually scroll over a little bit you can see there was more fall to come for the nasdaq and right now as again kathy woods is already knocked out 2019 20 21 gains already and you can see what is that it's like another 25 that index fell and i'm hoping that doesn't happen obviously i don't want to see the fund or anything or especially the nasdaq or anything else going on another 25 most likely that's in the card at some point in time this year but what's mind-boggling and this is where you know if i get passionate about it's not a personal thing it's just you know the definition of sanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result right and she's been out here doing all these press conferences and interviews and saying hey you know what you know it's going to be a bad year the fed's going to run us into a recession that's bad for you know grow stocks all this stuff the kind of stock she actually invests in right and what drives me nuts i see these purchases every day right here you can see them right here no matter what you're looking at and what's she doing selling tesla buying draftkings selling tesla buying robin hood selling tesla buying coinbase selling tesla about all these different kind of companies you can see as we scroll through this right here and what's so crazy about that is i can understand selling tesla you're only winning stock so far and you know when it's going up because you won't be you don't want to be you know more than 10 percent portfolio but it's been going down since earnings and she keeps on selling she sold 12 million dollars for the shares of the day just to buy six million of gm and there you go i did a video about that a while back right and guess what if you're shocked then yeah she made her purchase of gm when she's researching you know you know she's trashed those kind of companies in the past all of a sudden she owned one right got out of china stocks now she's back in them with neonex ping and stuff sorry i know she still has that and so you know just one of those things where it's like what what are you doing and then here's the worst why would you purchase if you've seen what's going on it's it's a slaughter house out there this earnings season right you are seeing stocks go down so fast 30 to 40 percent just like that as soon as they downgrade their guidance gone falls off a cliff and what does she do you don't have to do this she purchases she loads up before earnings on some of these companies she's buying them keep buying them you don't have to do that she can have her placeholder she's she's held apple she's had disney all these different stocks where she because she can't hold cash but she can put them in there and yes are they going down yes but nowhere near at the pace of some of these companies like coin right and unity and all these stocks she keeps buying up before earnings if you want dollar across to average in wait till after earnings you know what's going to happen what has been happening if you got companies like amazon and netflix and google and tesla who actually have a lot of cash who are profitable right making money conglomerates and they're getting hammered after the earnings and continue to get hammered what does that tell you that's going to happen to any fintech to any software company that has to downgrade on their earnings or god forbid they miss too right it's going to get crushed so why would you purchase b4 earnings if you want to dca in fine wait till after earnings in this environment you really think have you seen any stocks take off i mean i haven't seen any like where why would you do that you can see those those dates and those purchases i just showed you saw it those were in the last like week for crying out loud and a week or two so you see it you know what's happening we know it's gonna happen right and you wait and you look at this mess i mean i mean this is her top ten right here right she holds and i can't wait for zoom earnings by the way i mean hopefully the market's going up for them because it's still heading south crashing you know god help them but you know you just look at a few of these you got teledogs roku not so bad coinbase oh my god that's been just disastrous block which i hold i'm a bag holder on that one uh for sure but she has it twilio and you just look at what happens on these stocks that report earnings just the other day unity boom look what happened it's down 30 percent actually more than that as i record this in 24 hours coinbase is an absolute train rate down 60 percent in the last five days down 31 in the last 24 hours and i showed you where she was purchasing them leading up to this right then god you know we all know what's going on with teledocs below 30 below 30.
look at that drops 40 on earnings of course what you do never fails i mean and here's the thing if you're gonna load up that's time to load up a lot of people were shocked she bought a box bunch more teledocs i was not you know but if you're going to dcam that's the time of dcm you get a 40 drop if you plan on holding the stock shopify is another one i don't really understand these purchases at all in shopify but there it is boom you know down 18 down 18 in the last five days 46 in the last month you know got crushed on earnings and so when it comes to the teledoc purchase right i mean i agree with it but you know that's the best time of dca in right and i don't agree with selling tesla to go in on that but that's just what you know what you decided to do okay that makes sense but trying to lead up to earnings and just you know buy and buy boom you know and all these different stocks it just i don't know i don't know the definition i'm saying they're doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result like you can't see that coming and if your team can't see it coming that's a problem because i know you saw it coming i could see it coming why because we just saw what's been happening over the last four weeks right i mean fintech's getting destroyed mega cap tech's getting destroyed and they're profitable and got more money they know what to do with you know so that's the problem with me the other thing is when i was talking about her team and her research look i'm 100 genomics and you know ai and all stuff it is the future there's no doubt about that right but the problem is what her research doesn't acknowledge and i'm sure she knows this is you know because she's put a lot of money in the genomic sector and i understand those stocks are they've been just wiped out they are trading below like cash value right now it's insane so somebody who does buy into them and is very patient because i know how long it's going to take you know can make a lot of money there's no doubt about it but the problem is as far as those companies producing profits and coming through what they say they can come through with is you have to remember in this country what is our health care system it is for profit where is the money in a cure or a treatment it's in treatment right hip replacements knee replacements all that stuff you know treating cancer all these different diseases treating aids you've not seen all the medication all the tvs for that kind of stuff and so if you cure something sure one company who has the patent will be able to get a lot of money for that cure but all these other companies like wait a minute all this money we're getting paid all your treatments just goes away and a lot of people don't realize this but we talk about big pharma all the time the medical device industry divorce big pharma okay that's just the way they they're like the daddy and big pharma is like the child i mean it's it's unbelievable how big it is and you know they own the right people like stock and barrel those are those people that make laws and all that good stuff and policies right and so that's the problem with it is like yes i agree with the research that this needs to happen but it's no different than what tesla went to through for years tesla never had any ground or gain any ground in the industry until and until until they started suing state legislatures in the federal government and started spending millions lobbying and it took a long time to do it okay but then once those laws and policies started getting changed and all that stuff are happening yay but do you really think these genomic companies which depend on people to really donate to them anyway have the kind of money like tesla elon musk had to make that fight maybe but until you know you change from having all the money in not treatment but for the cure instead you know where is that going to go don't mean the stocks can't go up right because they've gone up dramatically making no money pretty much right but odds are eventually you know especially the market like we're going to be in for the next little while here where profits matter that that's a problem that's a problem and so you know that's something to look at that's where i say it's like ai and stuff and she always talks about the track during the mule and how it's replaced and all of a sudden now you got a semi line so that's great but you don't think the government looks at that and says wait a minute back then we were a growing economy you know we're not anymore and guess what that when we created the tractor and everything else yeah but it wasn't an autonomous tractor didn't drive itself we had people to drive those tractors and it wasn't autonomous assembly lines we had people on the assembly lines what do you see happening now right i always say ask any employee who used to work on an assembly line for florida gm what happened to their job what job was created when they got replaced by a robot no job they were out there picketing okay and hopefully they got another job but if you replace all the 18 wheeler drivers with you know thomas vehicles where are those people going to go right that's the question what job is being invented then where all the tax cab drivers where they going to go because we're going to have autonomous taxis right and so that's just that's just my question putting it out there but you know you it's hard it's hard to for companies to really start to produce revenues and profits and be successful if the rules and policies and laws are kind of against them right the whole system's against them it's kind of tough so i'm just putting that out there not saying it's not going to happen but you have to to me that needs to be acknowledged in their research i'm sure they know that because they are very intelligent people you know and so that that's where i'm at on this i just for me and i may sound passionate about it maybe i get a little too overpassionate but when i see it feels like sometimes she literally is taking people's hard-earned money and just shoveling it into the furnace just burning it up right when she buys in before these earnings calls right and the stock drops 30 40 60 i mean good lord you know and there's no end in sight we're gonna have you know bear market rallies but even she said they're gonna the fed's gonna drive us into a recession and after the cpi data today they're gonna have to keep raising interest rates there's no doubt about it right still hadn't peaked like everybody thought it was gonna do you know and so still rising and and so it's just a mess and that's kind of where i'm at i'm going to leave it there let me know what you think in the comments like again i can be crazy it won't offend me a bit if i am that is what it is but you know that's where i'm coming from with it and so hopefully you got something out of it hit the like subscribe and if you did i really appreciate that guys and i'll see you tomorrow
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