저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 제임스 로저스는 글로벌 금융자산이 과열 상태이며 중앙은행의 대규모 유동성 공급이 결국 문제를 낳을 것이라고 보지만, 단기 시장 타이밍은 자신 없다고 밝힘. 주요 주장: 2021년 기준 코로나 충격 이후 경기는 회복 중이나 아직 끝나지 않았다는 입장이며, 미국 주식시장은 사상 최고치 부근이고 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸 버블이라고 평가함. 자산별 견해: 구글·아마존 등 일부 미국 주식과 서울·뉴질랜드 일부 부동산에 버블 징후가 있다고 봄. 반면 은은 고점 대비 약 50%, 설탕은 약 70% 하락해 원자재가 가장 싸다고 평가함. 향후 전망: 중앙은행이 계속 돈을 찍어 시장 조정이 당장 오지 않을 것으로 예상하나, 결국 투자자들이 게임을 그만두는 시점에 급격한 하락이 올 수 있다고 경고함. 조정 시점이나 상승 후 하락 여부는 명확히 말하지 않음. 비트코인: 세계가 결국 비트코인을 채택할 것이라는 제목과 달리, 본문에서 비트코인에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 등장하지 않음. 인도: 코로나 2차 대유행으로 인도 상황이 매우 나쁘며 부채가 크게 늘어 장기적 문제를 낳을 수 있다고 봄. 다만 인도 시장에 대해서는 직접 조사하지 않았다며 투자 판단을 유보함. 리스크: 정부·중앙은행 부채 확대가 특히 젊은 세대에게 부담이 될 것이라고 지적하며, 현재는 과도한 유동성에 따른 자산 버블 위험이 핵심 리스크임. 출연자 전망: 로저스 본인은 시장 타이밍에 능하지 않다고 명시하고, 시청자에게 글로벌 흐름을 직접 확인하라고 권고함.
다듬은 글
what is happening as you know it's devastated many economies and many countries and many industries and many companies handling it less badly than others but it certainly caused the world economy to slow but samina if you compared to a year ago when everything was closed now things look great i live in singapore a year ago there were no flights now there are a few so everybody says wow things are good look at all these flights but that's only because it's in comparison with the disaster of a year ago things will continue to get less bad but it's not over yet jim financial assets usually are a reflection or or preempt what is going to happen to the economy uh the alien equity markets like you rightly pointed out were at their worst point exactly the same week a year ago u.s equity markets have been rallying higher and higher a bunch of commodities are doing quite well what do you feel uh is a general outlook i know it's tough to put it in one basket but i've had to ask you do you feel like financial assets equities commodities oil even currencies for that matter maybe on the upswing going ahead largely because you have central banks once again pumping world economies with lots of free money very perceptive samina yes never in world history has well i'll use america uh since it's the largest never in world history has america printed so much money and driven interest rates so low many other countries copied japan england other countries and this has never happened in world history uh if you ask me it's not going to end well but it's certainly caused a big revival as you know the u.s stock market's at all time highs many mark many asset classes are gone have gone up a lot bonds have never been this expensive in the history of the world so bonds are clearly a bubble this never happened in world history so bonds are a bubble some stock markets parts of stock markets in america google never goes down amazon goes up every day 10 samsung so some stocks around the world are beginning to form bubbles not all not all uh property in some places if you go to seoul or new zealand i mean property is clearly a bubble in some places in some places the cheapest asset class that i can see around the world are commodities i mean silver's down 50 percent from its all-time high sugars down 70 percent from its all-time high so the cheapest assets that i see are commodities but they keep printing monies for me so things are going to be okay at least for a while in the markets in the markets you're right we'll talk about commodities in a minute but so if you do believe that real consumption or demand is not keeping pace with the prices some of these stocks worldwide are reflecting at that means it's only a matter of time that we are staring at a correction in a big fall from these levels right do you anticipate that there could be further upside and then a decline or do you think we're around the corner uh from a pretty big farm i am not very good at market timing i suggest you you watch your program you watch your global view to get market timing i suspect it's going to go on for a while because even if things calm down in the market central banks around the world are going to panic and print more money and put more money out into the system remember samina these are not very smart people they're they're bureaucrats and academics you know what actually you and india had one of the best central bankers that the world seen a few years ago he's gone now but he was really really smart and very good but most central bankers are not very smart people and all they know is to print money and to borrow money and so they'll do that eventually samina of course the markets are going to say wait a minute we're not going to play this game anymore we've seen this movie we know how it ends we're getting out and then and then it will be too late yeah i just we are of course uh staring at a pretty painful situation and you can't of course discount the fact that the world is at least in india collapsing around us as we fight a pandemic i just want to quickly talk to you about india before we move on to uh you know the other asset classes how do you feel about india right now jim we are like like i keep reintegrating going through a pretty painful second wave we are anything but the darlings of global investors now a lot has changed from a lot of structural a lot of conversation with structured reforms that our prime minister was talking about i think most of us have realized that these most people internationally have realized that that may be far from the truth how do you feel about the india story is it still intact uh is this a pause or is it is it there is a structural change that you're witnessing where india is no longer a favored market for global investors well to me now i'm not there i only know what i read in the in the press and on the internet and it sounds like uh it's a horrible horrible disaster which is taking place i mean it sounds like i mean i guess you read the same press i do people are dying in the streets hundreds of thousands of cases people dying and no no hospital beds etc so it's having a devastating effect in india perhaps worse than most countries but the consequence will be that the debt is going to go much much higher in india and india already was becoming a debtor a large debtor and i'm afraid that this is going to cause longer lasting problems for india than it will for some other countries i mean america listen i am not defending america because america is worse i don't know if it's worse but it's horrible uh japan you look at some countries around the world but this is going to have a long lasting effect in india i'm american i have teenage children i will tell you samina this is this is a good time to be an old american because i'm getting the benefits of all this and i don't have to pay for it but my children oh my gosh it's not good to be a young american now because they're going to have to pay for their gigantic debts and i presume i would say the same about young japanese and maybe young indians i should ask you yeah well it's uh of course we're paying for what we reap but of course jim and again let's talk about uh how you feel because you have the opportunity to invest in japan you could of course go and pick up u.s equity markets uh unfortunately unfortunately for indians we can't invest more than 250 000 per person per year outside this market so a large exposure is and will remain indian equity markets but you don't have that problem how do you view india is this a buy right now for the for the five to six year period of time or is it a complete avoid well you know it's a very good point and good insight normally one is suppose should invest when there's a disaster going on and unfortunately for me i haven't looked closely enough in india i've just been reading the headlines and i obviously one of the things i've learned for many years is when you see horrible headlines don't just say oh that's too bad then take the next step and see if you should invest and i haven't done that yet you
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