저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 미국 경제는 전례 없는 규모의 붕괴를 향하고 있으며, 달러 가치 소멸과 인플레이션으로 대부분의 미국인이 자산을 잃고 세계는 달러 본위제에서 금 본위제로 이동할 것이라는 주장. [핵심 주장 1: 위기의 성격] 이번 위기는 과거의 하이퍼인플레이션이나 국가 파산과 달리 규모 면에서 전례가 없고, 기축통화를 발행하는 미국에서 일어나므로 전 세계적 파급이 있다. 코로나19 자체보다 이에 대한 통화·재정 정책 대응이 경제를 무너뜨릴 것이라고 주장. [핵심 주장 2: 정책 실패 누적] 제로금리와 양적완화는 코로나 이전 2008년 위기 이후부터 시작됐고, 2008년 이후 대응 정책 전부가 잘못됐다. 결과적으로 위기는 회복되지 않았고 문제만 악화됐으며, 이후 버블은 2008년보다 훨씬 커서 붕괴 피해도 대공황보다 훨씬 클 것이라고 전망. [핵심 주장 3: 재정적자와 화폐 발행] 미국 정부 지출의 60% 이상이 연준의 화폐 발행으로 충당되고 있다고 주장. 트럼프 행정부가 역대 어느 대통령보다 정부 규모를 늘리고 차입했으며, 이는 결국 세금(인플레이션이라는 간접세)으로 국민이 부담하게 된다고 설명. [핵심 주장 4: 인플레이션] 인플레이션은 통화량 확대이며 저축자와 달러 보유자에게 부과되는 세금이라는 규정을 제시. 워런 버핏의 발언을 인용. 미국은 전례 없는 규모의 인플레이션과 생활비 급등을 겪게 될 것이며 매우 빠르게 닥칠 것이라고 경고. 대부분의 사람들이 이를 예상하지 못할 것. [핵심 주장 5: 볼커 사례와 조건] 1980년 볼커가 금리를 20%까지 올려 달러 붕괴를 막았던 사례를 근거로 듦. 현재는 부채 규모 때문에 금리를 2%도 감당하기 어려워 이 해법은 불가능. 연준이 옳은 일을 하면 국채 디폴트, 연금·사회보장·의료보험 등 약속된 지급 불능이 드러난다고 주장. [핵심 주장 6: 전망과 금 관련 결론] 연준은 옳은 일을 하지 않고 잘못된 정책을 더 강화할 가능성이 크며, 금리를 올리지 않아 달러는 바닥으로 떨어지고 인플레이션이 미국을 황폐화시킬 것. 1971년 미국이 금본위제를 이탈했지만 세계는 달러 본위제를 떠나지 않았으나, 이제 세계가 달러 본위제를 떠나 금본위제로 돌아갈 것이라고 전망. 이 흐름이 금 가격 상승으로 이어진다는 취지. [출연자 전망 및 리스크] 전반적으로 비관적이며 달러·미국 국채·정부 약속 자산에 대한 위험을 강조. 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않음. [기타] 영상은 2020년 9월 13일 게시본이며, 현재 기준 가격 방향 검증은 별도로 필요함.
다듬은 글
the money that most people have or at least what they think is money isn't going to be money much longer you know the crisis that we are headed for now is really unprecedented uh in the world not not that there haven't been countries that have been wiped out i mean we've seen hyperinflations we've seen currencies destroyed we've seen people impoverish i mean that's not new this has been happening for a long time what's really new is the scale i mean we're about to see a loss of wealth that's really unprecedented in in the scale how many people are going to lose money or wealth rather and how much they're going to lose that's what's really unprecedented and of course it hasn't really happened in uh in a nation as large as united states it hasn't happened uh with a nation that is issuing the world's reserve currency so the the bankruptcy of america the impoverishment of america a hyperinflation in america has profound uh implications far beyond the united states so this is really going to be a global event even though the bulk of the pain is going to be concentrated in america and it's going to be experienced by americans and you know it's not covet i mean covet 19 is not the problem i mean it's one of a number of problems but it's not why we're about to go through this massive economic collapse but it is the monetary and fiscal policy response to coven 19 right the government's cure is what's going to kill the economy not the disease and in fact it's not just the mistakes that the government has made since covet it's all the mistakes that were made before kobe right it did the government just didn't start making these mistakes the federal reserve didn't start qe uh with kovit it started it a long time ago uh this zero percent interest rate policy uh wasn't invented because of covet it predated kovit it was just resurrected on a much grander scale everything the u.s government did in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a mistake all the monetary policy was wrong all the fiscal policy was wrong as a consequence we never actually recovered from that crisis we simply made all of the problems that caused that crisis worse and of course the crisis was caused by the fed by the government that with using the same policies that they used to respond to the crisis only the mistakes they made after 2008 were far bigger than the mistakes they made before 2008 and therefore the bubble that they blew up was far bigger and the collapse now that that bubble is popped is going to be catastrophic right when the 2008 bubble popped we had the worst uh crisis since the great depression this crisis will be worse than the great depression much worse and unlike the great depression when we were still on a gold standard money actually gained value so if you weren't in the stock market if you weren't in the real estate market uh you know you you gained purchasing power assets got cheaper for you the cost of living went down americans are not going to be that lucky this time everyone's going to get wiped out people who don't have any money invested in the stock market are going to get wiped out because the dollar is going to get wiped out the government is spending more money than ever before where most of it is being conjured into existence by the federal reserve the u.s government is now spending more than 60 cents or more than 60 cents out of every dollar that the us government is spending is being printed so the federal reserve is printing more money for the government to spend than the us government is collecting in taxes now you have to realize that that doesn't mean that all of this government is free that we've dramatically increased government right donald trump has increased the size of government more than any uh prior president i mean forget about roosevelt or linda johnson trump is the biggest spender of all time the biggest borrower of all time and therefore he is the biggest taxer of all time because every dime the u.s government spends is a dime of taxes whether they want to be honest about it or not because government spending isn't free right it's paid for by americans one way or another and if trump and congress don't have the guts to be honest with the american public and give them an actual bill for this unprecedented spending orgy right they're just going to have the fed print up the money that doesn't mean we escape the bill it just means we pay the tax through a different mechanism and that mechanism is called inflation of warren buffett last year correctly defining inflation as a tax it is a expansion of the money supply buffon said it's the cruelest tax of all uh that fewer than one in a million even understand which i which is true and that's by design the government has led a propaganda effort uh to confuse people as to what inflation is but it's an expansion of the money supply it is a tax it is a tax on savers on and on people that own dollars we are about to experience in america inflation on an unprecedented scale in this country we're going to see the cost of living skyrocket and it's going to happen very very quickly it's going to hit people like a ton of bricks and they're they're they're not going to see this coming the only way the federal reserve is going to prevent the dollar from becoming monopoly money is going to be to finally do the right thing something that it has resisted doing the entire time the last person who did the right thing is no longer alive paul volcker in 1980 the dollar was collapsing in the 1970s why because we printed a lot of money in the 1960s and then we went off the gold standard in 1971 and the dollar tanked it lost about two-thirds of its value against other fiat currencies like the deutsche mark the swiss franc the japanese yen and gold went up 20-fold from 35 an ounce to over 800 oil went up 10-fold the dollar was going to get killed back then but volker allowed interest rates to rise to 20 and that put a floor beneath the dollar that's what it took to rebuild confidence in a dollar that was no longer backed by gold interest rates can't go up to twenty percent they're trapped at zero we can't even afford two percent let alone twenty percent based on the enormity of the amount of debt that we have now but in order to stop the dollar from collapsing the federal reserve has to let market interest rates rise who knows how high they would go i think the rate would actually have to go above 20 percent but here's the problem we can't even afford a fraction of that so if the federal reserve does the right thing to prevent the dollar from collapsing the us government will have to default on its treasury bonds the majority of debtors will end up defaulting not just the us government and the government won't just default on its treasury bonds it will default on its pension obligations it will default on social security benefits medicare benefits on guaranteed loans on the guaranteed uh pensions and bank accounts all these empty promises are going to be exposed if the fed does the right thing but again what's the odds that they do the right thing given how painful doing the right thing is going to be so instead of doing the right thing they will double down on doing the wrong thing or triple down on it and they are not going to let interest rates go up so the dollar is going to fall through the floor and inflation is going to ravage the united states because what happened in 1971 is america went off the gold standard but the world did not go off the dollar standard what's about to happen is the world is going to go off the dollar standard and go back to the gold standard that is where we're headed because the system that we have now does not work you
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