저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 원자재가 현재 가장 저평가된 자산군이며, 채권은 버블이고 금리는 향후 2~3년 내 상승할 것이라는 견해. 원자재·유가: 원자재는 현재 가장 싼 자산군이며, 농산물 원자재가 특히 저렴하다고 봄. 유가는 전고점 대비 50% 이상 하락했고 매장량 감소와 셰일 버블 붕괴로 향후 수개월 내 강세가 나타날 수 있다고 봄. 단, 매주·매일 단위가 아닌 중장기 관점. 전기차·수요: 전기차가 확산되겠지만 시간이 걸리며, 전기차는 일반 차보다 구리·납·니켈을 몇 배 더 쓰므로 원자재 수요가 늘어난다고 봄. 설탕·옥수수 기반 연료 등 농산물 연료 수요도 증가할 것으로 전망. 농산물 ETF: 로저스 농산물 ETF(RJA)를 계속 매수 중이며, 세계적으로 농산물이 가장 싼 자산이라고 봄. 인덱스 투자를 최선의 방법으로 제시. 귀금속: 현재 금·은은 매수하지 않으나 추가 조정을 기다리는 중. 은은 전고점 대비 50%, 금은 10% 하락. 매수 시 금보다 은을 더 많이 살 것이라고 언급. 달러: 위기 시 달러로 몰릴 수 있으나 기축통화 지위는 영원하지 않으며, 미국 부채가 막대해 달러는 취약하다고 봄. 다만 대체 통화는 아직 불명확하고 시기는 올해가 아닐 수도 있다고 함. 채권·금리: 채권은 역사상 가장 비싼 버블 상태이며, 중앙은행이 억제하려 해도 금리는 향후 2~3년 내 크게 상승할 것. 현재 채권 공매도는 하지 않음. 리스크: 중앙은행 개입 가능성, 단기 시장 변동성, 본인은 트레이더가 아니라는 점을 명시.
다듬은 글
well the cheapest asset class in the world at the moment happens to be commodities bonds are in a bubble everywhere many stocks are starting to form a bubble property as you know in korea new zealand many places is in a bubble but commodities are still cheap i mean you know silver's down 50 percent from its all-time high mini commodity oil oil is down over 50 percent uh i don't know whether oil is going to go up and down this week it's not terribly relevant to me but oil is known reserves of oil continued to reserve it's a decline the fracking bubble has popped and so i would suspect you're going to see strength in oil in the next few months not every day not every week but oil is down a lot from its all-time high if you remember henry ford henry ford's wife had an electric vehicle she did not like uh internal combustion engines she insisted that electric vehicles were the future well she was over 100 years too soon yes they're coming but it's not going to happen overnight and in the meantime reserves of oil continue to go down i'm not urging you to rush out and become an oil trader by any stretch but i i would not give up on the i am not giving up on the price of oil yet uh no there are many alternate sources of energy coming solar especially solar wind uh ocean power many kinds of alternatives are coming but it takes it's going to take a long time so and as i said oil is down 50 from its all-time high and known reserve everywhere in the world including saudi arabia continue to decline the fracking bubble has popped you know fracking's still here but for a while there if you could spell fracking they gave you money so you could go into the fracking business well that's not happening anymore and in the meantime reserves go down i i it would not surprise me at all to see oil much higher over the next two or three years because of supply and demand remember there are two sides to this equation and electric vehicles are coming i i can see that i can see i can watch e.t as well as you can but it takes a while as henry ford's wife found out well as you know uh cars can be fueled with sugar fuel but the brazilians are already working on it the americans are working on it well from from coal from maize but we can have fuel that is based on agriculture and that's going to happen you know i would just go back to if i could we're going to have electric cars but it's good for some commodities remember cop an electric car uses several times as much copper and lead and nickel as does a regular car likewise if we have fuel based on sugar or maize or whatever you're going to see a lot more demand in several commodities even though we may see oil eventually being used less and less and less there are many ways to play commodities and commodities are certainly the cheapest asset class that i know in 2021 sure so in the entire agri-commodity basket where is it that you're placing your bets what's up what are you bullish on well i have been buying uh the etf but there's an etl from the new york stock exchange a commodity uh and an agricultural etf uh rja i i continue to buy it uh it's now been down recently and it is as i look at the world agricultural commodities are among the cheapest asset in the world so i have been buying more of the rogers agricultural com etf i i don't know of any other asset class that is as cheap as commodities especially agricultural commodities anywhere in the world well i'm not buying either at the moment but again i'm not a good trader but i am waiting for silver and gold to correct even more if i were buying today i would buy more silver than gold silver is down 50 percent from its all-time high gold is down 10 from its all-time high i'm not buying either at the moment but when i buy again i will probably buy a lot more silver than gold and i will watch et to figure out when to buy when things go wrong people look for a safe haven and i suspect that they will look for the us dollar one at least one more time but no reserve currency has lasted more than 100 years 150 years throughout history the u.s dollar has been around for a long time so we're coming to the end not this year maybe not even uh in the next two or three years but the us dollar is extremely vulnerable because it's got such staggering debt i do not know yet what will replace the dollar yes many people will go to silver including me but i do not know what currency if any will replace the dollar i am looking many people india china russia you're all looking for something to compete with the us dollar again maybe you can tell me you're there in india and india is one of the countries which is looking for something to compete with the dollar and it should the us is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world well i own the commodity as i said before commodities are the cheapest asset class that i can see anywhere in the world in 2021.
so i have i continue to buy indexes commodity indexes they're listed they're easy to do now you can buy them on the new york stock exchange and other stock exchanges and many studies have showed that index investing is the best way for most investors most of the time and i know and i'm lazy i know that index investing works i'm bullish on nearly all commodities so i have been investing in commodity indexes interest rate of bonds are in a bubble bonds are clearly in a bubble they've never been this expensive in the history of the world in the known history of the world and we're going to see higher interest rates the central banks will do their best to hold them down but there comes a time including already starting when the market says no we don't care we're not going to play this game anymore central banks are going to try to hold the line but come on i mean the debt is skyrocketing everywhere the supply of debt is gigantic and inflation is coming all the fundamentals are going against interest rates i'm not buying you know i'm not shorting interest bonds today but there's no question that interest rates will be going higher maybe not this quarter but certainly over the next two or three years and more interest rates have to go much higher worldwide there's nothing that can stop it including central banks you
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