저자: Kevin · 외국인
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1) 10년물 금리 급등 후 채권 매도가 지속되면 역사적으로 1년 뒤 주식 평균 약 10% 상승 경향이 있다고 주장. 2) 1987년 블랙먼데이와 현재 차트 유사성은 과장된 비교이며 2022년 급락을 무시한 것이라고 반박. 3) 리비안은 현금 부족으로 자금조달이 필요하다고 평가하고 비νfast는 더 위험하다고 봄. 4) 유가 하락 언급. 5) 고용지표 결과에 따라 금리·주식 방향이 갈릴 수 있다고 중립적으로 언급. 6) 하우스핵 투자 및 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
well just like Vladimir Putin just announced that they will accomplish their goals in Ukraine and to be clear their goal is to demossify Ukraine Jerome Powell has a goal for the markets and that is to maintain maximum employment and have stable prices and not have a recession which would probably lead to not maximum employment in other words lots of layoffs okay we get a real recession the layoffs we saw last year will prove to have been a joke that'll be like the little okay we picked up the spare coffee mugs around the office and cleaned a little bit an actual like deep cleaning you don't want to go there it's not great for the economy but it usually happens late it's a lagging indicator it's not great Ford looking data despite this though and of course markets are going to be very tentative today given that tomorrow jobs data comes out job data coming out tomorrow is expected to show 170 000 job gains and if the ADP report is anything to give us an indicator as how as to how the jobs report tomorrow is going to go it is that we have absolutely no idea the ADP report like in in this last cycle has been completely off from where the actual jobs report has done and so that does create a risk that tomorrow we actually end up getting a hot government jobs report something over 170.
what happens in that case stocks down yields up it's simple everyone's played the game before but what happens if that number actually starts aligning with ADP and we get a weak jobs report tomorrow it could be a sign that maybe just maybe the fed's finally done and could that be what sets yields off to finally start falling well we've got a little bit of data on the history of what happens with bonds and stocks find this quite fascinating look at this historically Bond sell-offs end up with big rallies Let's uh explain this in English here okay so uh if you go all the way back to 1962 that's about 61 years there have only been 15 times that the bond market has actually sold off for five months in a row think about that for a moment going back 61 years you've only seen as bad of a bond market to sell off as we just had 15 times and usually in the 30 days thereafter you end up with bond yields coming down and bond prices coming up again so you get like a you know Bond rally uh that's on average about 30 basis points here however you could make status six months later in other words like yeah we don't really know what this signals going forward for the next six months what we do know though is that stock performance has a pretty clear outline now this might look overwhelming but all you have to do is look at this is a measure of bond sell-offs during these times and so we look at how severe the bond sell-offs add three to six months out stock market's a little mixed during these periods of bond sell-offs but if you really want to know what happens a year out all you have to do is look at the average at the bottom so look at this average at the bottom right here and you get a 10.1 percent typical average return for the stock market when you average together all of these previous Cycles where bonds have sold off so in other words if you're that long-term stock investor there is historical data to suggest after these sort of crazy Bond Cycles you do end up getting some relief in the stock market as well at the same time we're also seeing Commodities relief and you look at uh oil right now oil uh down right off of its 95 Peak another 1.36 today we're down now at 84.64 on Brent 83 on WTI pretty remarkable drop it's almost as remarkable as the drop that rivian's having although I I will say covered rivian's finances yesterday went through some of their details their cash burn is less than it used to be they're still spending about 136 dollars per 100 of Revenue they get in gross profit which is gross loss so they're still losing money and then you take off Opex still burning money so it's no surprise that they want to raise 1.5 billion dollars I mean this is a duh you have to that's that's why you want to be public right it's so you can you can raise money from your shareholders and you have liquidity for your employees or for uh for executives at a company to be able to sell shares and and share in the growth of the company with others but when you have a company like rivien you're really asking shareholders to share in the startup costs of the company and that's what's happening kind of much like Vin fast except I I kind of think that VIN fast is at like a scary like scammy kind of level and what I've been bagging on this company since it was memeing and and talking and complaining about how this company is a rip-off but let me just tell you they just released earnings and they're even worse than I thought this company literally has 131 million dollars of cash they burn a billion dollars of cash in a quarter which means they really only have about two weeks of cash left and I know people like oh but they've got 897 million dollars of inventories bro their free cash flow negative they're burning more cash than they are making this company has two weeks of cash left this is absolute trash uh you know and that is of course they've got three choices their related parties could sort of delay some of the due dates on their current liabilities maybe are there other current liabilities could give them some flexibility maybe they could raise money like debt or Equity like uh rivian is doing but you know with only like two percent of the stock outstanding uh and a lot of really weird related party interests this company is very very questionable so I've got my concerns about vinfest substantially more than rivian I would go all in on rivian way before I would ever put a dollar in Vin fast and let's just say I own no rivian stock so look it's really obvious that we're going through uncertain times but the good news is in this uncertainty you can invest in house hack we've probably got about two weeks left of the fundraise and then we're likely closing the doors TBD on exactly the date we'll announce that but go to houset.com to learn more because we're raising at a one-to-one valuation which is exceptionally rare for star startups that means you're basically investing at cash value minus obviously some of the fees that it costs us to actually fundraise but this is a great opportunity in my opinion you have to evaluate those risks yourself check out the offering circular at househack.com learn about the company it's a great opportunity in my opinion you should evaluate that for yourself and also go to meet kevin.com to check out those new verse Pro crash courses we just added some more 89 bucks we expect those prices to double when the courses are actually live so get in on the pre-sale while we're making the content so what do we have to talk about now it is of course Black Monday how nobody wants to remember 1987 but then there's 1916 and blah blah blah blah blah basically here's an article in Bloomberg that's been circulating a lot a lot of people have been asking for my opinion on this and really what the article does is say says okay look let's put in a blue line what 10-year treasury yields did going all the way to 1987.
and what you can see is you had this run up to 1987 and all of a sudden you had a Black Monday market crash and those treasure yields Came Crashing Down but so did the stock market and our path looks eerily similar to what happened back then in fact it's not just our path on the actual yield curve or or 10-year treasury yield chart it's also right here the black line is the NASDAQ today okay the blue line is the Dow Jones Industrial Average back then and you could see that crash was pretty dang painful and it does make you wonder uh uh oh is it possible that we could be in for some real painly dude law now I do think it's worth noting that this chart is possibly a little deceiving because it ignores all of the pain that happened last year and you know me I'm a big fan of perspective okay yesterday I was building Legos with Jack and you know the manual kind of had like the pieces at an angle like this and it made it look like the piece behind it was totally flush but it wasn't it was sticking out and he's like oh Dad I couldn't really tell because of the the angle on the paper uh and I'm like well if you hold the Lego kind of like this doesn't it look the same right and this is perspective and he's like isn't that an optical illusion I go no it's perspective and you could learn perspective in the new verse Pro crash courses and he's like okay Dad I know I know the price is going to be double when they actually come out okay so what's the perspective the perspective right here here is that this Bloomberg article this opinion piece right here is actually only showing you this year okay and they talk about how spooky this year is but wait a minute what happened in the year prior to this chart well let's find out in the year prior to this chart so where is this this is 1987.
here's January of 1987. what they're showing you on that Bloomberg chart is literally from where the line is right now through this crash through basically you know uh the the right about here which is about the end of the year they're showing you all of 1987. but what's worth noting is the stock market literally ran straight up for three years leading up to that crash I mean look at that July of 1984.
to September August 1987 three years of straight up stock market rally and now you're trying to suggest that our NASDAQ today is going to crash because just this part relates wait a second wait a second what did our NASDAQ do last year well let's find out we go to QQQ go to the week chart oh crap our NASDAQ had a big crash last year and how convenient you totally left the whole crash of 2022 out of your chart because you decided you know what it's going to be a lot easier for me to make a comparison to the Black Monday crash the big Doom and Gloom crash if I just happened to cut out the fact that the stock market basically went straight up for three years prior to the Black Monday crash whereas we literally just came out of a massive correction in 2022 the low of 2022 literally reset our stock values back to year years so these comparisons to Black Monday of 1987 are just clickbait nonsense but to give the article credit they go a little bit deeper and you know me I like to go deep okay especially if I could find really strong big baby pricing power at companies it's got to be big we gotta go deep okay we want pricing power that's what we're looking for at companies it's hard in an environment when rates are this huge it's very hard okay there's a lot of volatility there's a lot of fear there's a lot of Doubt but look at this the article on Black Monday literally goes on to talk about well there was a time that the 10-year treasury yield did Skyrocket and the stock market didn't crash and that was during the taper tantrum of 2013.
oh how interesting we basically had another seven to eight to nine years of basically more like eight years straight stock market gains from 2013 on so are we really going to get yields Drive our decision in to invest or not in the stock market when it's unclear that a black Monday is ahead of us a b the taper tantrum of 2013 gives us the like well it could be either or but even better when we actually look at stock performance during periods of massively skyrocketing uh bond yields yes there's volatility but when you go 12 months out what do you get well 12 months out you get an average 10 percent return over history in the stock market 12 months out so in other words I'm a big fan of suggesting look you find your opportunities as usual there's always going to be fud who's going to be speaker of the house this is going to be Donnelly T I don't think so look if Donald T becomes the speaker of the house he will lose the election that does not mean being bullish or bearish on Donald Trump I'm just saying like you don't go from speaker to president it is the most thankless job that exists like you are stuck between literally a rock and a hard place there's no way it would be stupid Trump doesn't need that anyway he just needs to keep showing up at Court going this is a weapons all the advertising he's done for him like him or not ah now we gotta talk about the Daily Wealth newsletter this is a really good one today we got to talk about it right after I mentioned this video is brought to you by streamyard go to metcaven.com stream yard and understand the beautiful delicious streaming software that you could get in a browser anywhere you are and actually have high quality streaming be able to put banners up on screen uh put banners around the screen internet but throw up put banners around the screen throw up chat comma I mean it is a phenomenal platform every single Creator should use it not just creators but people who are trying to get started trying to record video with an easy to use recording software you could use it offline too it's not just for streaming so go to metcaven.com stream yard to learn more so Daily Wealth today we're going to talk about Chaos Theory um hmm right so chaos theory is a first of all a video game it's Splinter Cell chaos theory is a phenomenal game I love that game but there's also another form of chaos theory and I learned this uh in law chaos theory in law is when an attorney who's fighting another attorney every day Peppers the opposing council with filings and requests and distractions and comments and complaints you literally want the other person to look at her phone go oh how am I going to sort all this oh my God you could actually apply Chaos Theory to your life because the person who applies chaos theory is generally the person who's in control it's actually to some degree some of the stuff that Donald Trump does when everything's in chaos the person causing the chaos is the one in control they hold all the power so that's the legal example how do you apply this to your life you apply this to your life by creating Chaos Theory at every different part of your life whether it's the organization in your desk whether it's the organization in your bedroom whether it's the organization in uh the way you do your emails or your phone you just delete everything and restart every single time you cause chaos you take everything you throw it into the pile and you rebuild it whether it's a fresh wipe on your phone on your computer your desk or your closet whatever it is every time you rebuild the next even though that takes act for effort the next time you go to use the items that you just chaos theoried or the processes that you just chaos theory it will almost always hands down virtually guaranteed be better more efficient simpler to use more organized you'll save time so the investment you make by chaos theory in different parts of your life actually makes you a much more efficient person don't going forward now if you want more tips like that make sure to sign up for the Daily Wealth email it's totally free it's linked down below a lot of links down below househack meet kevin.com stream yard the wealth email check out the links down below appreciate you watching this
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