저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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트럼프 관세 대법원 판결 후에도 미국은 공격적 감가상각 규정으로 사실상 법인세 인하 효과(10~12%)를 내며 롤링 리커버리 진행 중이라 주장. 금이 조정받고 금속이 따라 오르며 비트코인/금 비율이 반등할 것으로 전망. 사모신용 환매 제한(BlackRock 5% 허용)은 불안 요인으로 언급. 이란 위협 축소로 중동은 혁신 중심 전환, 유가 장기 하락 전망. 장기적으로 AI·블록체인 생산성 붐과 암호화폐 최상위 자산 등극을 제시.
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But, typically metals would have followed by now. And they haven't. Sure, some of them are up. Copper crossed $6, now it's back below. Um but we expect this to close uh maybe both ways with interest rates coming down as more and more um investors understand that we might be going into a negative inflation environment.
Uh and the um the uh metals to gold chart will turn up as the gold price comes down and metal prices uh participate in this uh budding rolling recovery. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Following the Supreme Court's decision to reject President Trump's tariffs, Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has changed the market narrative by implying that investors are overlooking a significant structural change that will occur in March 2026.
She contends that through aggressive new depreciation regulations, eight, the United States has virtually executed a historic corporate tax cut, bringing the tax burden down to between 10% and 12% and laying the groundwork for a rolling recovery rather than a recession. It is anticipated that this fiscal climate, along with substantial liberalization of cryptocurrencies and artificial intelligence, will draw in foreign investment and increase productivity without causing inflation.
What is still extremely optimistic. About Bitcoin, pointing out that as the market prepares for an explosive rise, institutions are covertly preparing for a significant bull run. Having raised the exposure of her personal portfolio throughout prior downturns, sh- she is adamant that the current state of the market presents a special chance for growth and advises investors to see short-term as a prelude to the long-awaited rally.
Now, what we're hearing and of course uh we're not hearing everything and uh and we don't know everything, of course. Uh but from what observers are observing um including the Hudson Institute and others uh is that the uh Iran's firing of missiles and sending out drones that that has dropped by about 90%.
Uh so, Iran has been weakened uh considerably. And so, we can think about a couple of scenarios now. One is that this young, well-educated population um is going to behave like a coiled spring. We know that they have two other times in two different administrations here in the United States. Uh they have been protesting and looking for a way out of a repressive regime.
Now, I know not everyone in that country feels that way. Uh but we do get the sense that young people do. And so, they have been waiting uh for freedom. Uh and we think this could be and I use coiled spring a lot because we talk about innovation that way. Uh so, you've got a coiled spring in terms of a population just really wanting to join this very exciting world, especially the world of technology and innovation.
Uh and this world of technology and innovation itself is also a coiled spring. Uh slowly, slowly, then all at once. And we are having a lot of all at once moments now. Uh so, I think this could be a really good for the Middle East uh in general and as a region because we know that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are very focused on innovation.
They know that oil prices are going down as autonomous mobility takes us into the electric vehicle realm. Electric vehicles will be less expensive. Uh so, and and that means that the oil price will probably come down. Right now, it is close to $90. It has soared about 50% since this um conflagration uh started.
And we could see it going down uh below $50 uh uh per barrel. Right now, as I said, it's $90 per barrel. Below $50 per barrel uh and and perhaps much lower over the next 5 to 10 years. Uh the Middle East, which has the largest oil reserves, knows this. Uh and so, they've been diversifying into really technology uh based disruptive innovation.
Uh and so, it's becoming a very interesting region from that point of view. Of course, if something goes wrong uh well, I don't think we're worse off except for, of course, the people who have lost their lives and uh wartime being a horrible thing. Uh but in terms of uh how the future will play out, I don't think if uh this regime somehow manages to hold on uh that the world be will be that much different.
Uh so, I guess we're looking at status quo or a big surprise in terms of growth and innovation uh on the upside of expectations. Uh so, that's Iran. Um private credit is the other worry today. Uh the there's about $1.8 trillion in private credit uh today and a lot of it is in uh interval funds. And funds that don't allow full redemption uh at any time.
They might allow inflows, but not redemptions. And uh I think because of a few bankruptcies, highly publicized bankruptcies one clearly related to fraud uh this market has become unsettled. Uh just today, BlackRock uh decided not to satisfy the 7.9% in redemptions from its largest uh private credit fund.
Um it only allowed 5%. I might be wrong on that 7.9%. There may have been requests for 9.3. In fact, I think that's right. 9.3%. They only allowed 5%. So, roughly half. Uh so, there are a lot of nervous individuals who thought they were buying uh funds that were guaranteeing dividends in the 10 to 12% range and they just felt uh safe.
It was bond-like. Um here is Bitcoin to gold, of course uh very focused on the new global monetary system, which we believe is Bitcoin. Uh we think this is uh uh going to turn around and are struck that uh we're higher than those last two big lows even after all of the pressure recently on Bitcoin and the soaring of the gold price.
So, we expect Bitcoin to gold to turn around and uh and we expect it to happen both ways. Bitcoin the Bitcoin price going up and the gold price uh going down. And on this one uh this is the commodity index. This is um this is what uh this is a manifestation of what I mentioned around the PPI. Input costs are going up.
Uh and you can see uh that they've gone up significantly enough uh where if consumer prices are not going up or if they're only going up 1% as Trueflation says uh there are going to be uh some margin squeezes taking place out there. And this is this is the chart that I still noodle over. It's just my goodness, metals to gold.
Um gold hitting all-time highs and moving up so rapidly certainly is a part of this story. But typically metals would have followed by now. And they haven't. Sure, some of them are up. Copper crossed $6, now it's back below. Um but we expect this to close uh maybe both ways with interest rates coming down as more and more um investors understand that we might be going into a negative inflation environment.
Uh and the um the uh metals to gold chart will turn up as the gold price comes down and metal prices uh participate in this uh budding rolling recovery. According to Cathie Wood, the current state of the economy is a greatly expanded version of contemporary Reaganomics, which a significant inflow of capital into the US is expected to boost the value of the US dollar and start a new growth cycle.
Wood is strategically positioning for a significant boom powered by the confluence of AI, robotics, and blockchain technology. Seeing late 2025 as the pivotal moment for this shift. While the general market is still consumed by the noise of tariffs and deficits. She calls cryptocurrencies the fastest growing asset class in human history.
Oh. Predicting that by 2026 there would be more than a billion active wallets due to the unprecedented rate of adoption. In the end, Wood thinks that increasing liquidity will be the main driver of this change. Directing all technical and fundamental indicators toward a time of swift parabolic growth that might make cryptocurrency the best performing asset class in the world.
Uh it basically gives you a sense of how much COVID squeezed the affordability. And the red line is um how many people feel they are experiencing hardship. Uh and that that that is why the saving rate is going down. Hardship means they don't want to deal they don't want to dig into their savings. Uh uh but they have to.
So, we need these lines to improve. You can see uh that the purple one is flattening out, but it absolutely has to come down. Uh if um if this administration wants to maintain its um its lead in the Senate, most people think they'll lose the house. Uh but if they get affordability affordability crisis uh um cured, going to be hard to do, in the next uh few months by the time the election rolls around, uh that too might change.
Uh here you can see another source of pain, auto delinquencies. Uh so, subprime is in purple there, overall is in green. Both of them are near records. Subprime is about to surpass uh the record after '08-'09. That too says there is a lot of pain. Now, the reason '08-'09 might have been um might have been lower than otherwise is because people back then, we didn't have Uber or Lyft.
Uh people needed to get to a job if they had kept their job jobs. Uh and so, they defaulted on their home before they would default on their car. The car would be uh possessed right away or much sooner than the house was. So, um it probably would have gone higher, much higher otherwise, uh but still, it is shocking to see it near that level today.
Uh now, we'll go into uh how to cure this affordability crisis. Well, uh no tax on tips, overtime, uh and parts of social security certainly helpful. I've I've presented this chart before. Um it is kicking into high gear right now. Uh it didn't do anything in January, um but the refunds really started in February, and they're going to hit their peak in in March and April.
So, uh that's very important. And of course, this administration planned it this way thinking about the midterm elections. So, um now, we'll go into some other indicators. You know, honestly, I was shocked to see this uh this metric, existing home sales, drop uh below four again, uh because mortgage rates have come down 100 basis points.
Um so, a little bit puzzling, but as I mentioned at the outset, housing starts and permits are starting to move up. So, uh there are green shoots in this um in this housing space. Here are new one-family uh hous- houses for sale. Um that's inventory for the builders or inventory for someone. And you can see that it is now starting to improve.
Uh houses are starting to move uh as prices fall and interest rates fall. So, this is another green shoot. Uh and then here you can Oh, that was the green shoot. Uh I guess I didn't have any other housing one. We'll go into market indicators now and um talk about S&P relative to gold. Uh there are some strategists out there that I respect highly who uh keep a close eye on this metric uh out of fear that we're going to end up in a '70s style inflationary bust.
Uh we don't think we are. We think gold's ahead of it itself. Uh and that the the war here has um has caused some uh perturbations in the uh S&P. And so, we expect this this one to turn back around. Uh and we're encouraged by the next one. Until recently, S&P relative to oil um was near an all-time high.
Uh and you can see where we are at today's oil price. So, it's come down a bit, but still near its high. Doesn't look anything like it did during the '70s. According to Cathie Wood, a new Reaganomics for the digital age will propel the US economy, as a coiled spring, toward a major productivity boom.
She contends that a historic capital expenditure cycle in AI, robotics, and energy is being encouraged by subtle policy changes, particularly aggressive depreciation rules and a de facto corporate tax cut to almost 10%. While the mainstream continues to focus on transient macro headwinds like tariffs and the Iran war oil shock.
According to Wood, as businesses use blockchain and AI to attain previously unheard of per capita efficiency, this technology convergence will spark an entrepreneurial explosion driving real GDP growth toward 7% by the end of the decade. The development of Bitcoin and decentralized finance into the foundation of the world's financial system is essential to this ambition.
Institutional acceptance is quickening because two ETFs and new legal frameworks like the Clarity Act Wood argues that by preparing for this unavoidable transition to on-chain settlement and AI-driven commerce, ensuing increase in productivity and liquidity will not only stabilize the dollar, but also set off a parabolic expansion that has the potential to completely transform the global financial system and solidify cryptocurrency as the top asset class of the coming 10 years.
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