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2024년 6월 FOMC 직후 영상. SEP 점도표에서 연말 금리 중앙값이 1회 인하(5.1%)로 상향되어 매파적으로 해석. 파월은 근원 인플레 둔화 진행을 강조하며 지연을 인정했고, 장기 중립금리 상향(2.6→2.8%)은 매파 신호로 평가. 발표자는 Fed를 중립~매파(6.5/10 도비 기준)로 보고, 장기 롱 논리(애플·엔비디아)는 유지하되 단기 변동성 가능성을 언급. 다음 날 PPI 예상치 제시.
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asking ourselves what's going on here with inflation in the at the aggregate level and you know and of course if if any price that contributed to ongoing inflation would would matter any any price that contributed to ongoing disinflation would matter too but I wouldn't sing alloud housing as having a a special role there thank you very much boom there was jow and the FED meeting and the attendees on the FED trade were so delicious I'm so happy we are back this is a great tendies day I took some tendies I'm gonna have more trades but man this is a good day let's talk about what jpow just had to talk about it is also coupon expiration day it's kind of crazy day CPI fed Day coupon expiration day check it out at M kevin.com pitch out of the way you know the drill email us at staff atme kevin.com if you have questions let's get into what jpow just said okay first of all jpow gave us the usual little rug and tug in which you kind of get with the summary of economic projections I think every every single time we get one of these summary of economic projections we kind of get a little bit of a rugg and tugging we get things that are a little worse than than we'd really H for them to be uh and then jpow basically pours cold water on them uh he there were a few issues in this one first of all we saw the FED funds rate projection go up to 51 at the end of the year the expectation was that we'd see two rate Cuts in this this is only one we saw the dot plots really consolidate up a lot higher than where we thought they would end up being wasn't great now jpow was asked as as we expected like hey well did you you know put together the summary of economic projections with C this morning's CPI report in mind and he said yes we put it together with this morning's report in mind but most people don't end up revising what they said uh after the data comes out so in other words this is probably a summary of economic projections that says hey uh you know it's probably a little more hawkish based on the first half of the year we got and probably doesn't incorporate the good news of today that's probably because they don't want to overreact to the Euphoria of this quote unquote welcome news and they're keeping uh or sticking rather with their sort of old positioning which is ah you know if we didn't get this good CPI report today maybe we'd be a little uh how should you say um bearish and this is a bearish summary of economic projections but as usual during the presentation and Q&A session uh J pound did water down the impact of these uh quite frankly summaries uh and uh projections regularly calling them just projections and that they could change that whatever labor market conditions back to the eve of the pandemic one of the good questions that I thought came out of this is hey um you know are you just going to wait until the economy tanks and we start getting negative payrolls reports or like when are you actually going to uh you know cut and uh he says look we're we're cognizant of the pressures on lower income individual uals people on the fringes of the economy the damage this is doing to smaller businesses whatever uh which is nice to hear him say that but it's not actually great from the point of view of getting a bullish pow here it's kind of like hey we see your suffering and he literally said quote it will be painful for especially for those on the margins of the economy so it wasn't the most encouraging power I have to say if anything this was this was probably a relatively neutral how is how I would put it I don't think I could cheer that this was the dove that I was really hoping for uh I was hoping and and expecting to get a little bit more enthusiasm out of him uh we expected him to water down this sort of bearish summary of economic projections but he made a good point over here you know I'm like hey PC right now is already at 27 on on Headline core PC is at 28 you're projecting it to be the same at the end of the year what gives like you're basically saying no progress and so we were looking at this and we're like what the hell and uh Steve Leeman from CNBC picked up on it and he's like yo JP palal like are you giving up on progress on inflation JP is sort of like H we just think we're going to lap some higher numbers so it's not that we're not projecting other progress but it's just that as we lap higher numbers it's going to be harder for that number to come down more so in other words he's kind of reiterating that stickiness he still sees as the economy broadly strong the labor market back to the quote Eve of the pandemic that's an interesting kind of standard oh yeah Eve of the pandemic okay interesting but no greater confidence yet just that we had a welcomed report today obviously it wasn't a great uh it wasn't like I mean it was actually pretty great let's just be real about it was a pretty dang good report but it wasn't something where we were able to get a super Dove fed uh and it's not something that I think went as as a as beautifully as it could have as doish as it could have now uh asked about being uh potentially too slow uh again he reiterated they don't want to break things they want to try to keep in mind what's going on but he does say look it's going to suck and really he's asked like is a 25 basis point cut at the end of the year you know one or two of them basically is that really going to make a difference and Jerome Powell acknowledges here he goes you'd have a really hard job if your job was to figure out the impact of a 25 basis point cut so he basically he I mean if I had sum them up today I was hoping he'd be doish we kind of got a hey man we're in a good place we're just going to Coast here until the end of 2025 and quite frankly nothing changed we told you in March we're going to Coast until the end of 2025 and we're going to try to get rates to about 4ish percent and whether we have two rate Cuts now or one rate cut this year or or an extra one next year and one you know one fewer this doesn't make much of a difference so we did get a little bit of Hawking there not great didn't really love that kind of pow not super happy about that again I was looking for some more doish uh so um One Rate cut not making a difference good to know we did also get some be I mean we we would have anticipated that already anyway but the other thing and and uh I don't know how to pronounce her name correctly Gina smiac whatever she mentioned from The New York Times the girl who always sits next to Nick t uh she mentioned hey it looks like you revised up uh your uh sort of Target long-term federal funds rate from 2.6% to 2.8% and it's interesting because I didn't actually uh noticed that uh in the first moment I did notice when we went from 2.5 to 2.6 and I'm like Ah that's not great that's not great uh now it went from 26 to 28 it's also not great it's a way of the FED suggesting that the neutral rate is higher it's a little hawkish I didn't love that at all so not ideal here now uh I believe that uh this is you know as JP said hey you know these are just estimates we don't know is it possible that uh uh you know uh we're just trying to look into a crystal bar years down the road ball down the road yes and he did also say keep in mind that long-term Target assumes you're not going to have any shocks in the economy but the reality is and he says this himself himself quote we're still getting shocks in today's economy we're still kind of like we're like in the ocean bobbing around and it's it's not ideal it's just it's not great today so not wonderful little off of a position to be in not great uh because it the bumpiness creates uncertainty and he's suggesting that uncertainty is implying a higher fed neutral rate and they're starting to kind of blend out into their projections here I don't love hearing that that much now grand scheme of things does any of this stuff really matter does it change my position from being about a 6 and 1 half to seven on the bull scale does it change the night swoosh does it change my positioning no in the grand scheme of things this doesn't really change anything we're going back to let's get are we going to stay on this trend of declining inflation can we continue to get good inflation reports here the goal is obviously yes will we time will tell so that's the issue at hand right now obviously the market rallied into the japal meeting and following the japal meeting the question now is is how is the market going to respond in the last 30 minutes of trade my anticipation is this is good enough confidence to where maybe in the last 15 minutes you could see a nice little sort of buy the dip on on sort of the post fed closeout dip that we've had here uh on you know the cues you're down about 50 basis points since japal stopped talking could the tip keep dipping I think it's really hard to argue that funds should be dumping and going bearish after this JP there's nothing here that suggests anything other than jal's probably just going to take more time unfortunately time is money so again was this a doish Fed no was this a hawkish Fed I'd say it was like neutral to hawkish if I had to put them as a 10 Hawk a one uh uh Dove I'd probably put them at like six and a half so they leaned a little on the hawkish side today uh and I think they're trying to project that they're so steadfast that the economy is strong it's not falling apart yet we don't need dramatic rate Cuts we're willing to be patient to get inflation down as a long-term investor does that really change anything no in the short term does that softens some of the gains of the euphoric Market that we've seen absolutely will people probably swoop in and buy the dip on that probably we'll see we'll see so I personally still maintain long thesis on Apple uh you know still obviously long exposed to Nvidia but um uh shorter term here you'll have a little bit of turbulence on a little bit more of a you know hawkish fed that said I think going forward you've got a lot of catalysts removed here you've got PPI tomorrow which remember to subscribe to the meet Kevin Market Channel that's this one right here uh well actually not maybe not where you're watching this video on replay but uh just type into to meet Kevin Market live stream make sure you're subscribed to that that's where I cover a lot of the market live stream events unless there's some like major breaking news or whatever sometimes I do that live on the main channel uh but then we try to post my summaries or sort of edited together videos on the main channel so just keep in mind you can subscribe to both of those that doesn't cost you anything expiring coupon code today you already know about that uh so again if I'm looking into trade for the rest of the week as long as ppi is stable tomorrow and I'll give you the numbers I expect we're probably just slowly going to continue to trade up nice and slowly some sectors where you're going to get AI pricing you might get some bigger pops PPI tomorrow we're looking for final demand at 0.1% down from the 0.
five of the prior month uh PPI X food and energy looking for3 X food energy and trade looking for three as well so we'll see what happens tomorrow I'll be covering it live uh the next day so that's tomorrow at 5:30 a.m. on Friday we'll get import export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report so uh with that said thank you all so very much for being here let's go ahead and play the disclaimer and remember to go to meetkevin.com to more about those learn more about those courses on building your wealth remember past performance does not guarantee future results you could join and you could lose lots of money obviously my hope is that you can learn and make lots of money let's play the outro yeah see that sell down you're hitting the bottom you're already knocking on the door of the bottom so you got uh Tesla sign kind of knocking on the door of the bottom there nvidia's trying to Microsoft so everything sold down after the meeting which is really interesting but it looks like you're trying to create a bottom here no guarantees it looks like you're trying to form a bottom on a lot of different uh uh uh you know indicators here we'll see if Bitcoin can end up holding that bottom there as well but it looks like the big selloff now might be behind us after those comments uh and often times no guarantees uh that can lead into a push into the close or people are going to take profits I have no idea but we'll see um overall bullish on the economy until we really start getting some bad uh um uh jobs data but I'm very watchful of that that's why I'm a six and a half on the bull scale as opposed to like a 9 or 10 I still think there are large risks in that labor market anyway
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