저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 2022년 전망 긍정적, 목표가 1400달러(기본)·1800달러(상단) 제시. 핵심 주장: 2022년은 '황금기'이며 중국 수요 가속과 베를린·오스틴 생산능력 확대가 주가를 1400달러대로 끌어올릴 것이라고 봄. 1분기 실적이 강하면 주가가 30% 이상 움직일 수 있다고 언급. 리스크: 경쟁 심화와 중국 시장이 가장 큰 변수. 공급망 문제는 2022년 상반기 완화 전망, 완화 시 추가 5~10% 상승 여지. 리비안: 기대 과도한 밸류에이션으로 실행 차질 시 급락 가능성 경고. 배터리 증산은 우려 낮음, 칩 부족 속에서도 인도·생산 목표 상회 필요. 핵심 승자 중 하나로 평가. 테슬라 위상: 연간 상승 흐름에 대해 점유율이 80~90%를 유지할 필요는 없다고 주장. 10년간 5조 달러 규모 전기차 변혁 전망, 테슬라를 자동차사가 아닌 기술 기업으로 봄. 경쟁자: 포드·GM 등 전통 완성차 업체가 유통망 측면에서 장기적으로 위협이 될 수 있다고 봄. 폭스바겐(유럽)은 가장 큰 기회 요인으로 언급. 전기차 전망: 2030년 전기차 비중 약 25~30% 전망. 자동차 시장이 4차 산업혁명 성격의 변화를 겪는다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 테슬라에 대해 역사적으로 호불호가 갈리는 종목이나 긍정적 입장 유지.
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shares of eeveemaker could pop 30 next year a friend of the show dan ives of webbush joins us now dan always nice to see you uh i was looking over your note and my first thought is 30 percent conservative if tesla comes out here beats strongly in earnings uh in the first quarter i mean theoretically you could see a pretty big move especially after elon has been dumping shares and pressuring the stock yeah look the heaters will continue to hate but ultimately eevee you're going into a golden age 2022 you'll get tesla demand in china that's the winch pin now i think as that plays out in capacity builds in berlin as well as austin that's really the combo that i think sends us to 1400s our base case bow case is 1800 and dan too all glad julie got i'm just wondering what could go wrong look i think in terms of what can go wrong i mean a lot of it is really cool competition's increasing across the board so i think there's some worry there but i don't view it as a zero-sum game i've used a five trillion dollar green tidal wave four gm's gonna be successful i think could be re-ratings ribbing as well the chinese players like neo front and center i think the biggest thing is really about china and about making sure that demand continues to accelerate but especially the supply chain we think supply chain issues moderate in the first half of this year you know as we go into first half 22 that moderates i think that could add another five to ten percent of the stock dan uh you know rivian continues to make headlines and i would say not exactly too great a couple weeks ago on earnings day he said the delaying trucks came out today saying delaying a certain version of another truck do you think riveting is just overvalued at these current levels just it's going to have to go down the same production and manufacturing issues as tesla did look they're being viewed as the golden child of evs coming out of the gate and with that type of valuation any shortfall any mis-execution is is going to really get hit in terms of the stock i think rivian is really a category changer in terms of where this goes over the next three four five years but to your point they need to execute flawlessly and and that's really going to be the focus going forward for the stock to continue to move higher we think they're one of the core winners the battery push out i'm not too concerned about but they need to make sure that they continue despite the chip shortage hit and exceed street expectations in terms of deliveries and production i i want to go back to tesla for a second and a graphic we were showing a few minutes ago um dan that shows the annual performance of tesla um and that it's just been year over after year after year of the stock going up on an annual basis um and again like i just struggle with the i mean it's not consistency because the the magnitude of the gains have been all over the place here but just that the idea that tesla is just going to continue to be this dominant i sort of struggle with here yeah i think it's a great point but i don't view that they have to continue to have 80 90 market share i mean my view is it's a 5 trillion dollar green tidal wave over the next decade even if share starts to recede a bit i mean we're talking about the biggest transformation to the auto industry since 1950s and i've never viewed tesla as an automobile company ibm is disruptive technology player but that's also why competitions coming from all angles they got a target on their back any issues are going to be greatly exaggerated but it all comes down to if demand continues to accelerate like we've seen globally capacity gets added in berlin and austin they could be at two million vehicles from a capacity perspective and that's why they have a massive opportunity in terms of what we're seeing from a customer adoption perspective dan who is the biggest threat to tesla's dominance is it ford is it general motors is it volkswagen is it another name that we're not even talking about yeah it's a 313 area code i view it as it's for its forder gm because from a distribution from a stalwart potential you tell my gm sells seven million cars you know per year you start to convert a significant amount of them but i think it's really forward i think when farley's finally had the golden touch at ford you see what's happened on the f-150 you look at the re-reading in the stock it's really the stalwarts that are going to be over time more of the threat in the eevee landscape rather than what i've used the pure place even when you look at a lucid origin i mean for them to get to scale it's going to take five six years for gm and i'd say vw in europe continues to really be probably the biggest i wanted to say threat i'd say probably the biggest opportunity as they all dive into the deep end of the ev pool dan um just to take a bigger view here if we go out to 2030 for example what what percentage of the cars on the road are going to be electric vehicles and at that point you know it seems like there's maybe a lot of winners to pick from well i mean julie that sort of summarizes really our point what's been our bold thesis on tesla over the last decades we think it's 25 to 30 percent by the end of the decade that are evs you know tesla continues to sort of own that market but you look at this transformation you go from three percent of automobiles to 10 by 2025 to what's going to be basically one of every four by two thousand thirty i mean that's look at that's why i call it when you look what's going on and there's just a broader view across tac cross disruptive tax it's a fourth industrial revolution play now and i think with a lot of these hyper growth names when you look at valuation just over the next year or two you would have missed the amazons and netflix at tassos the apples and others and i think many that have been haters on tesla i think if they were nfl scouts they would have been super negative on tom brady in the 2000 draft probably still negative today dan you're uh you're like the tesla analyst out there on wall street just from a personal perspective what has it been like covering this company this year i mean i think it's been a fascinating year because there's a circus show that we always have with musk from the twitter poll to to what we see you know across social media you have the china issues that were some dark days earlier this year we've been very easy you know i think for many to throw in the white towel but look this is always gonna be an emotional bull bear story in terms of tesla and you know i think it's one where i think maybe that's even more divided today in terms of the valuation but i continue to stress i mean that's why ford's trading where it is it's why you've seen more the re-rating in gm and it's why you're starting to see rivie and some of these others come out because investors have that strong appetite for this but look i love you know on on tesla i love hearing from the lovers and the haters it always makes it enjoyable covering it oh we love hearing from you dan knives dan isaac webbush appreciate you always coming on and have a happy new year you too
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