저자: AllInCrypto진행자 · 외국인
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이번 주 가장 중요한 결론: 단기적으로 비트코인과 이더리움은 바닥을 다지는 구조로 보이나, 9월 말 이후 방향은 불확실하다. [비트코인 차트 전망] 비트코인은 현재 지지선을 유지 중이며 단기 저점 구조로 해석된다. 진행자는 9월 말 이전까지 횡보 후 28,500 돌파 시 상승 추세 전환을 기본 시나리오로 제시했다. 차트상 헤드앤숄더 패턴 위험도 언급했으나, 9~11월은 역사적으로 강세 구간이라 상승 가능성에 무게를 둔다. 달러 강세와 인플레이션 불확실성은 단기 하방 리스크로 꼽았다. [이더리움] 이더리움도 단기 바닥 구조로 보이며, 위쪽으로 튀어나올 가능성이 있다고 봤다. [거시경제] 최근 CPI(3.7%), PPI, ECB 금리 인상 결정 등 인플레이션 지표가 나왔으나 연준 금리 인상 확률은 크게 변하지 않았다. [레이 달리오 발언] 달리오는 현재 단기적으로 현금 보유를 선호하며 채권은 사지 않겠다고 밝혔다. 부채 비중이 큰 상황에서 금리 상승은 복합적 문제를 낳으며, 중앙은행이 금리를 올리거나 채권을 매입하며 인플레이션을 유발하는 딜레마에 놓인다고 설명했다. 진행자는 2008년 식 급락 이후 시장 상승을 예상하는 자신의 기존 테제를 언급했다. [암호화폐 관련 뉴스] 독일은행(Deutsche Bank)이 Taurus와 파트너십을 맺고 기관 고객을 위한 암호화폐 보관 서비스를 제공한다. 다만 암호화폐 거래는 당장 계획에 없다고 밝혔다. ANZ 은행은 체인링크 CCIP를 토큰화 목적으로 사용하기 시작했다. [기타] SEC 게리 겐슬러는 암호화폐 규제를 강화하겠다는 입장을 재확인했다. 진행자는 이를 비판적으로 평가했다.
다듬은 글
good morning good afternoon or evening ladies and gentlemen all in crypto here and welcome back guys for another daily cryptocurrency market update it is Friday and hopefully you're all having a fantastic one as it's Friday we'll try and keep this daily market update short and sweet but make sure you guys are updated on everything happening within the crypto space and further afield um it's been quite a heavy week of macroeconomic data which we'll be doing a little bit of looking at looking at perhaps how this has affected the market and certainly um monetary policy perhaps um we're going to start the video off with a funny clip of Gary Gensler it was recently interviewed and one of the remarks from the interview ER was that the judges seem to be fairly sympathetic to um the crypto space and his face says it also we'll start off with a clip there then we'll dive into a little bit of the Bitcoin chart we're going to talk about some comments made from Ray dalio Ray dalio is one of the greatest hedge fund managers of all time somebody I have great respect for I've read all three of his books he's wrote more books than the the the uh principles economic principles and of course um the the book on debt um but there are three great books that well worth reading some money I highly highly respect he recently made some comments in regards to being in cash not Bonds and actually there's a crypto related side of things with bonds because bonds going up are have historically been correlated with equities going up but there's kind of an inversion of that taking place at the moment which we'll talk about and then we're going to get into some big crypto news from the likes of Deutsche Bank that are officially now I'm looking to hold crypto for institutional clients it's a big move and then we'll talk uh about an article that we published on chain link um basically the Australian Bank ANZ is now using chain link ccip for the facilitation of tokenization to one trillion plus Dollar Bank and then like I said we'll do some sort of macro um housekeeping if you will is what we're going to call it so without further Ado guys let's dive into this rather funny clip of Gary Gensler in a recent interview where he was continuing to bang on um about the fraudulent nature of the cryptocurrency space it's about broker dealers whether it's about exchanges whether it's about custody we have taken up the pair uh where we find it appropriate to put out the public comments and proposals but there are laws There Are Rules not just here at the SEC but across a number of areas I think there's a field that a lot of it just wants to run past that and and suggest otherwise they do seem to be finding some sympathetic judges so you have to be careful on that one um we've we've done a comments awkward jeez I mean you know I think Aggregates is just doing such a poor job of this he's applying old regulations to um a new technology which I don't think is going to work um but we will see I think he's done a very poor job and I think he's largely stifling the industry maybe he's doing that on purpose who knows um let's dive into a little bit of the charts before we move on um you guys know the plan for us ultimately we've been laying out a lot of what we think is to come um and you know right now you are still holding support and we have warned people against being short right now um you know you are getting this somewhat looks like bottoming out structure to me actually ethereum was one that I was looking at earlier you know this looks like bottoming structure at least in the short term so short term we've said for September expect September to kind of play out rectember um but actually there's a number of scenarios that we've been looking at we've been looking at the fact that the uh sort of impulse you've had this year is in a five-way fashion it's a three-wave kind of fashion you know maybe looking at that deeper ABC correction you've got definitely a danger of a head and shoulders with this as a neckline setting up um key key level you know this level runs all the way back into the The Head and Shoulders that we have the inverse sorry Head and Shoulders that we have um so this is a key key level my worry in the short term is that this is an a into a b and then into a c which sets up that head and shoulders that's the bear case for us of course the ball case you know for me the levels I'd really want to see taken are 28 500.
so this bass head lets you at least get back above then so you know your ball case for me and this is kind of what I want to see is something like this into the end of September you know it doesn't have to to to be as long as that but something like what it's doing and then a path to the upside in a kind of wedge-like fashion you know I want to see a similar thing and this also was a head and shoulders that people were very very worried about to what we saw over here you know this had a lot of people I remember I remember trading it actually to the long side this had a lot of people um very very worried and actually you had this kind of bottoming like structure that very much inverted really messy technical analysis here guys I'm probably getting my I can hear my ears ringing um but this inverted and I think this is your kind of September going into October November which historically very bullish months for um Bitcoin um so this is kind of what I'd like to see of course if it just wants to show strength and rip and take out you know 28 500 and then of course come and attack these levels and take them then it's full send but this is kind of how I would like to see Bitcoin fix itself with a kind of downdraft of right now uncertainty in regards to inflation um which we can cover in a second in fact we'll do that now with the the kind of headwinds that bitcoin's face and of course you had CPR that came out we covered it we did an article on allencrypto.com um where we looked at the fact that inflation came out CPI at 3.7 core inflation came out a little bit lower um and then yesterday we had ppis which came out pretty aggressively you had the ECB which actually decided to hike rates um instead of pausing them which I think most people thought was going to be the case regardless of and I'll pull up the FED watch Tool uh regardless of this though however you didn't see much of an increase in terms of percentages or probabilities given to a rate hike in about five days so I don't think they are going to heart rate together whether they do it in November then or an intra meeting one we'll we'll see but regardless of your higher inflation you didn't get a um a change in this although you did get a rally into the dollar which is historically or should be downside for Bitcoin dollars in a key area when you think something's going to turn off and it won't you know I've been on the wrong side of many trades that I've you know been sort of like crossing my fingers and hoping that it turns and I've been going hang on how long can this run for it can run for until um you tap out basically um so we're not betting against the dollar right now the dollar had a really nice year day yesterday Bitcoin and the stock market did quite well under the back end of it and I think this is more to do with a kind of safety trade people getting into the dollar at this point with all the uncertainty that historically is quite negative for Bitcoin however Bitcoin is showing a little bit of strength it does look to be getting certainly on The Daily a little bit toppy the volume isn't half bad um but it's nothing it's you know it's nothing necessarily to write home about so we will be watching everything certain all coins for me ethereum looks this this looks like at least a short-term bottom structure for me um that it could very easily pop out the top of yeah so I think you could get a little bit more upside the question is does that upside lead to that head and shoulders or does it you know lead to something more Monumental come into the back end of September we will see and we've done a little bit of macro housekeeping let's move on some comments from the man the myth and the legend Ray dalio he's the reason you have the chicken nugget ladies and gentlemen without him the McDonald's actually would not have launched their chicken nugget because they couldn't fix the price of um tickets and then the chicken Farmers couldn't fix the price of great he figured out how to do that with Futures marvelous marvelous uh individual when it comes to the markets radio sales to hold cash temporarily but don't buy debt and bond so for the past four years you could have just bought bonds and debt basically I knew they're doing all right you know they've been in a bull market for 40 years I think there was the end to that or A disruption to that certainly with the events of March 2020.
um and here are some key points from this article amid mounting concerns over Rising interest rates and inflation levels Bridgewater associate founder Ray dalio said he prefers cash and does not want to own bonds the billionaire investor pointed out that when debt accounts for a substantial share of a country's economy the situation tends to compound and accelerate dalio says the biggest mistake that most investors make is believing that markets that perform well are good Investments rather than more expensive he goes on to say I don't want to own debt you know bonds and those kind of things the founder said temporarily right now cash I think is good and the interest rates are fine um I don't think it will be sustained that way um he then goes on to say uh believing that markets that perform well are good Investments rather than expensive um he then extends we're at a turning point of acceleration but the real problem comes when individuals or investment investors don't hold the bonds because it comes as a supply and demand one man's debt is another man's asset uh the supply and demand imbalance isn't just the amount of new bonds it's the issue of do you choose to sell the bonds he explained so there's a real issue here uh he then goes on to finish when the interest rate goes up the central banks then has to make a choice do they let them go up and have the consequence of that or do they print money to buy those bonds and that has inflationary consequences so we have a thesis on this channel and if anybody becomes a patreon please please please watch first thing you need to do is watch Sunday's medium we have a thesis on this channel that markets are going to actually do very well into a 2008 style crash there's many narratives that could see that play out one of them could be AI for example with a stock market and one of them could be this decision that Ray dalio is talking about if you understand the bottom but Bond and debt Market it is it's money basically um and at what point do the FED pivots we already saw a kind of sort of pivot with obviously Silicon Valley Bank when they had to step in which was caused by the bond issue you know and then do they have to turn the tap back on because the inevitability is that they will have to do that um otherwise you get a complete collapse of the entire system um the question is is how does that unfold is that a sharp stab down which is yield Spike through the roots you've got lots of people doing like yield spikes which would probably have some sort of negative connotations for equities or is that more of a kind of soft Landing where inflation comes down there and they transition to going back to supporting markets and most not really the bond market which they kind of have to support at this point so we're getting really into a kind of macro Dynamic and dilemma um but it's interesting that red yellow series rather hold cash than bonds at least temporarily whether to get back into them when the FED decide they want to come and then start supporting things again the things for us to watch as crypto investors let's get into a little bit of crypto specific news um if anybody hasn't checked out our website yet please do come over to at allencrypto.com sorry not at all in crypto.com just Allen crypto.com you can check me out at Twitter at realorncrypto.com we are publishing um some groundbreaking articles on projects that you just simply don't see covered in the space this is uh one that we published recently today I.E and it talks about Australian Bank ANZ uses chain link ccip very very interesting and this is a huge announcement chain link are absolutely changing the financial landscape they're one of many we do have an AI bot that will actually read it to you um so this is another big partnership we're going to see many of these uh moving on Deutsche Bank to hold crypto for institutional clients this is big news this is from Reuters uh Deutsche Bank has partnered with swift crypto firm Taurus to provide custody services for institutional clients cryptocurrencies and a tokenized assets Taurus said in a statement on Thursday the partnership means Deutsche Bank will uh for the first time be able to hold limited numbers of cryptocurrencies for its clients as well as tokenized versions of traditional Financial assets as a Deutsche Bank spokesperson that's sad crypto trading is not in the bank's immediate plans the spokesperson talks about said but they aim to offer crypto trading in a world economic Forum uh paper back in 2022 uh crypto markets bloody bloody blah are struggling um various Banks including Standard Charter by melon and Associate General Alpha crypto custody Services most people don't know about a lot of this this is what I mean they are legitimately tricking you right now into selling your crypto and thinking that crypto is never going to return to the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars uh it it there's no doubt that it's going there guys to the tens of trillions and on this channel we absolutely try and keep everyone on that um Trail so let's finish this off as the digital asset space is expected to Encompass trillions of dollars of assets it's bound to be seen as one of the priorities for investors and corporations alike said Paul uh Molly Deutsch's bank's head of Security Services pretty big news we always bring big news on this channel and we always try and keep you up to date with the latest and greatest things happening if you guys appreciate that and you're having a great Friday let us know in the comment section A like and a comment as always appreciated please do go and support the website and other social medias consider becoming a patreon if it's something you feel you want to do we've got a very good retention rate and on that note I'm going to love and leave you thanks for watching guys see you all in the next one
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