저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 장기적으로 150만 달러(2030년)까지 갈 수 있다고 주장하며, 현재 골든크로스 등 기술적 신호와 ETF 자금 유입을 근거로 제시한다. 감세 정책으로 기업 성장과 혁신이 가속되고, AI로 제약·헬스케어(유전자편집 등)의 수혜가 과소평가되어 있다고 본다. 팔란티어 등 AI 관련주의 강세도 언급한다. 다만 영상 후반부는 RSI 과열과 약세 다이버전스, 9만2천~9만5천달러 지지선 이탈 위험을 경고한다.
다듬은 글
that innovation is part of the program. Uh and especially with Elon Musk at the helm, he has been at the helm. He's going to be stepping aside. Uh I think he has been shocked uh and has surfaced how old the technology is and how inefficient it is and how much we are doing manually. So I think at government in the government sector Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance.
The CEO and founder of Arc Invest, Kathy Wood, has rekindled market interest with her audacious prediction that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $1.5 million by 2030. Wood reaffirmed Ark's long-standing argument in an interview with CNBC on May 9th, 2025. Bitcoin's algorithmic scarcity limited at 21 million coins combined with its growing institutional adoption creates a particularly bullish environment.
Even though Bitcoin was trading close to $13,000 when she made her remarks, ARK's modeling shows a convincing range of values. From the aggressive $1.5 million bull scenario to the conservative $700,000 base case, this viewpoint is supported by recent capital flows, not just theory. In just the first quarter of 2025, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $10 billion in institutional capital.
Bitcoin is becoming more and more integrated into traditional finance as retirement behemoths like Fidelity and Charles Schwab are now enabling crypto access. The assets of AR's own Bitcoin ETF, ARKB, have grown to approximately $2.2 $2 billion and their larger portfolios show that they are still accumulating BTC.
The distinction between Bitcoin's fixed supply and infinite fiat issuance grows more pronounced as the Federal Reserve keeps growing its balance sheet, supporting the idea that Bitcoin is a long-term store of value and a hedge against monetary devaluation. According to Wood, we are at the forefront of a new monetary paradigm rather than just seeing an asset class mature.
It actually feels a lot better right now than it did at the beginning of so-called liberation day uh when uh it seemed chaotic. Uh our hypothesis at the time was that uh that there was a lot of negotiating going on behind the scenes and when we saw Treasury Secretary Bessant really take over from Peter Navaro that was an important moment.
We knew the negotiations were perhaps about getting non-tariff trade barriers down as well as getting tariffs down. And if that is where we end up, that's a tax cut. That's a positive. Um, but I I as the turmoil was uh un in well the inferno seemed to be uh blazing uh I I know that there was a lot of uncertainty just because of all of the rhetoric.
But I think we're beginning to, you know, understand now that this is more of a tax cut uh and a and a freeing up of markets. I mean, even here in uh the UK, I didn't know we couldn't sell our beef into the UK. Now we can or our ethanol. So, uh and and hopefully it's a two-way street that the US is opening up as well.
So, it's a win-win for our trade partners. Well, I am a laugher disciple. So, the laugher curve and we have some evidence now. uh in the first Trump term uh he cut the corporate tax rate from 35%. We were we were uncompetitive. A lot of companies were moving out of the United States. 35% to 21%. And of course that faced a lot of criticism.
Uh corporate tax revenues since then have gone from 200 billion to 500 billion. as more companies relocate back into the US, we're more competitive now. Uh so if tax rates are too high, uh then cutting the rates typically leads to more revenue. Now one of the other things we think is going to happen and uh consider the source uh there is so much innovation taking place right now technologically enabled innovation.
We think real GDP growth is going to accelerate uh well beyond what people expect now. So this idea of growing our way out of deficits, many people are dismissing that. I just gave you a very good example with corporate tax rates. Uh, and if you look in the United States at revenues as a percent of GDP, individual tax revenues, they're roughly around 18 17% all the time.
If tax rates go higher, people either stop working or find ways to shelter the income. Uh so we think that government spending up closer to 24% is the problem and uh we need to continue to show some discipline on that front. I think that innovation is part of the program uh and especially with Elon Musk at the helm.
He has been at the helm. He's going to be stepping aside. uh I think he has been shocked uh and has surfaced how old the technology is and how inefficient it is and how much we are doing manually. So I think at the government in the government sector uh we've had Palunteer go in starting with the department of defense and now it's moving into other parts of the government uh and increasing efficiency enormously.
We desperately needed this. Some of these systems were 50 60 years old. Yeah. Uh and so if we look at the FDA for example, we're already seeing more transparency and um streamlining uh which is absolutely essential deregulation. Regulations have been strangling innovation in the US. uh the FDA already has approved uh for the first time a piece of software code uh uh which will help in the diagnosis of heart disease is getting rid of animal testing because it doesn't work when it comes to monoconal antibodies.
Technically speaking the chart of Bitcoin is displaying a crucial bullish signal known as the golden cross. A pattern that is frequently seen as an indication of persistent upward momentum happens when the 50-day simple moving average SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. The golden cross has long been a trustworthy indicator of rising prices.
The expectation of Bitcoin ETF approvals sparked a 45% rally when this signal first surfaced in October 2023. In September 2021, a more than 50% surge was preceded by a similar pattern. Technical traders are looking for possible gains as Bitcoin is expected to replicate this configuration by late May 2025.
The crossover occurs when riskier assets seem to be supported by broader macroeconomic conditions. A recent increase in the M2 money supply indicates that the system is becoming more liquid, and a reduction in trade tensions between the United States and China may also improve investor sentiment. If the Golden Cross works, it might serve as a launching pad for around $150,000, which some analysts believe is within reach in the near future.
However, market analysts warned that timing, volume, and outside catalysts are important factors. Not all golden crosses lead to rallies. For the time being, this signal is supporting the bullish narrative that is already emerging in the markets, institutional, and retail sectors. Uh well the wonderful thing about what's going on with artificial intelligence in in particular is that the cost of innovation is collapsing.
Our AI training costs are dropping 75% per year. AI inference costs uh 85 to if you believe deepseek 95% per year. So we think we are on the lookout for more innovative companies popping up in the rest of the world. Uh I do believe the US was at risk of losing innovation. Certainly under the last SEC chairman Gensler, we almost lost the digital assets revolution to other countries.
Uh now it's coming back. I think under this regime, technology in the US will do very well. And one other thing I'd like to say about that, the MAG Six, many people lump them as technology and thinking they represent technology. They uh they quintupled in market cap from 2019 to 24. If you look at the rest of what we call technologically enabled innovation, it was up a mere 30%.
We believe the market is going in the US is going to broaden out and reward some of the companies that have lagged badly. Uh examples any examples you kind of which areas give give me more specifics. Sure sure. Uh well uh a lot of the multiomics names they are AI enabled these days. Multiomics is life life sciences.
So, Crisper Therapeutics is curing cickle cell disease and betaththalmia. Uh, we have, of course, uh, Coinbase. It is starting to make a run. Uh, Palanteers had a magnificent move. Just got into the, uh, S&P 500. Uh, Roku is the operating system for connected TVs. Uh, certainly in the US and number two in the US and, uh, now spreading around the world.
Um we have other uh multiomics names like twist uh uh therapeutics which uh is going to be critically important to the blood tests that are going to help us identify cancer in stage one or maybe even before stage one as tumors shed or polyp shed into the blood. Uh um no we're not c certain. We're never certain.
Whenever you see a flood of uh capital moving into one space, which it has, um, one of one of the things we think about is software as a service. Uh, internally at ARC, there's something called vibe coding. I don't know if you've heard about it, but uh, we're all coders. If you think about it, natural language processing, vibe code.
We can go to G chat GPT or uh, claw some code for me. Yes. and say, "Build me this website." Yep. And it will happen. Or uh who makes money on that? We still haven't figured out who's who's making who's ultimately going to be making the money. We're going to because we're going to lower our costs. Okay.
We're going to we're going to lower costs. We're going to That's not what's priced into the market right now at the moment. No, I think the biggest So, so there are three huge areas. One is massive productivity gains that every company can enjoy. That's one. And you'll see that more in efficiencies.
Two is uh the largest AI project on earth is autonomous uh transportation whether it's robo taxis. So Tesla we have said for quite some time is the largest AI project on earth. The the the most profound AI applications are going to be in healthcare. Uh if you think what makes AI tick, it's data. We have 37 trillion cells in our body that that that we're now analyzing and we can analyze because of AI.
Um they've corrected quite a bit. They've corrected quite a bit. I I think the better question is are some of the uh opportunities I just mentioned especially in healthcare are they recognized at all? They are not. They are not recognized at all. Um we think the health care sector has the opportunity here to take uh returns on R&D which are in the low singledigit range way down from the golden age of the 80s and 90s when they got up to 20 30%.
back to 15, 30, even 40% because AI is going to collapse the cost of drug discovery and uh development. We think the number of years it will take to um uh discover and then launch a new drug will shrink from 13 years to 8 years. uh we think that we're going to have molecular diagnostic tests as I mentioned before to diagnose disease much earlier and so we're going to move from sick care spending which in the US is 85% of healthcare spending more towards therapies that actually cure uh so if you look at crisper therapeutics uh and others we think that the combination of sequencing technologies artificial intelligence and crisper gene editing is going to cure more diseases.
We're already seeing cures in cickle cell disease and betaththalmia as I mentioned. Uh they have one that will compete with lipore or the statins uh in the works right now which is showing amazing results again once and done not having to take statins all your life which have all of these side effects.
So I really think healthc care is the most underappreciated beneficiary of AI out there. Uh but as you mentioned your your viewers have a lot of pharma holdings. You have to make sure that they are harnessing these tools because the old way of doing things is is not going to work anymore. It's very inefficient.
There's a lot of guesswork and and uh technology is going to change that. You have some great pharma companies uh but they have to harness these tools aggressively otherwise newbies will come around and nipping at their heels it will seem like uh and then surprise. Technical and macro indicators are beginning to raise red flags despite the bullish momentum that is developing around Bitcoin.
The relative strength index, RSI, a momentum indicator that has recently surpassed the 70 level and is frequently seen as an indication that the asset is overbought and ready for a pullback is one cause for concern. A growing bearish divergence, which frequently precedes short-term corrections, is making matters worse.
Although the price of Bitcoin has increased, its momentum indicators are starting to lag. The approximately $92,400 to $95,000 price range is currently being watched carefully by traders as a possible support area. The bullish narrative may be momentarily derailed if Bitcoin is unable to maintain this level as it may lead to a surge in profit taking.
Furthermore, even though the recent institutional inflows are encouraging, sentiment could always be stifled by macro shocks or regulatory surprises. For example, risk assets may retreat in response to any hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve or unforeseen geopolitical tensions. Even though Kathy Wood and Aark are unwavering in their long-term beliefs, traders and investors must contend with short-term volatility.
Whether the golden cross signals a breakout rally or turns out to be just another false dawn in the infamously volatile journey of cryptocurrency will be decided in the coming weeks.
Comments 0