원문 보기
Well, the market had a heart attack today and there are three reasons for the heart attack. The first has to do with a major black swan in that the Fed is trying to solve. So, we got a black swan in private credit. We got fake news maybe on an Oracle delay that gave the market a heart attack and then Oracle's like, "No, that's fake news, bro." We'll talk about that.
and then Fed. All three of these things are big issues going on in the market right now and you should know about all three of them. So, let's break them all down one by one. First, there's something that you have to understand and it's a little bit complicated, but I'm going to make it as simple as possible.
When a company goes bankrupt, they take on something known as debtor in possession financing. It's called a DIP loan. Okay. Now, you might be thinking, Kevin, like this this seems so me like micro. Why do I care about this? You're gonna see how this relates to the Fed, how this relates to the entire economy because what just happened is a very rare black swan.
This is very bizarre. You don't see this happen almost ever. And I'm going to give you these facts. A DIP loan is a debtor in possession loan. Usually these loans are given to bankrupt companies and and we usually think like that sounds ironic like it why would I lend money to a bankrupt company? They're just going to screw me, right?
The way it works is you go hey I'm going bankrupt. So companies come in and they're like all right well it looks like you have some assets. We'll get in front of all of the other shareholders and bond holders, all the other debt holders. We'll help you get through bankruptcy and we'll arrange financing for you based on what you have left, assuming we're in front of everybody else.
Usually, these loans sell for a massive premium because they're considered really good institutional debt. Like, they're considered safe. May maybe you shouldn't use the word safe, but they're considered safe. Okay. Now, take a look at this. This gray line right here you're going to see is the 100% value line for the bonds.
That means they were selling for a premium, right? So, so the bonds were selling for a premium. This is normal for a dip loan. Okay. Well, what just happened with First Brands on the day that the Federal Reserve said we were going to turn on the money printer? This could be directly related to why the Fed turned on the money printer.
What happened with First Brands? Look at this. Oopsies. That 100% bond value collapsed 60%. This is on a company that has 10 billion in debt. This is not normal. It is not normal to see this happen. Now, to understand that it is not normal, I think it's useful to look at research from this company called ECGI.
ECGI put this paper together back in 2022 and they talk about DTOR and possession financing and they literally say that at first blush loans to bankrupt companies may seem highly risky. However, we show that all of the 545 DIP loan facilities raised between 22 to 2019 received full repayment on principal and interest.
Full repayment. Moreover, evidence on repayment extends the Moody's research, which suggests that going back to 1988, there's only been a there's only ever been one bankruptcy or like failure on one of these DIP loans, basically, which suggests that repayment risk is no worse than institutional grade or investment grade loans.
So, basically, DIP loans are designed to overcolateralize and inst like insulate risk, right? But wait a minute, if these DIP loans are so good, why all of a sudden are we seeing a collapse of 60% on a DIP loan in the private credit market? Now, two things are possible here. One thing is possible that maybe First Brands just really sucks.
But look at this because this is really sus. The very company that goes in to say that, "Oh, First Brands is a great company. They just have a bad balance sheet. You should support First Brands in Private Credit." They're called Marathon Asset Management. The same company that said, "Oh, guys, it's a great company.
Don't worry." The same company actually sold their entire stake in the new money portion of the bankruptcy loan at or above 105 cents on the dollar and dumped it all right before the collapse. So the same slime bags that said, "Guys, everything is fine. Join the dip party dumped right here before the big dump." Now, this sends two signals that either Marathon is a scam or First Brands is is just really, you know, this was an oopsy dupy and First Brands is really just worse than everybody thought.
But collectively, all of this reiterates fear about private credit stress. And remember what we talked about with the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve needs to print money. Today is the day they start running the money printer to try to reduce some of the stress in private credit markets because if they provide funding for banks who are seeing money leave the banks to go to the Treasury General account because of tax collections and the Fed is trying to refill money at banks.
What do banks do? Banks lend to companies like Blackstone or Black Rockck or these management companies so they can go make these risky loans. But the problem is even they are bailing out on these private credit loans to where what's considered safe lending is becoming unsafe. That's a black swan. And I think that's why the Fed is turning on the money printer because it is so incredibly rare to see what is considered safe in private credit flip on its head.
And Oracle nonsense and the Oracle rumor that started circulating. So first of all, I want to mention a couple things here. This morning in our alpha report I said that there is a rotation happening out of hardware plays for artificial intelligence and I specifically named bearishness on Oracle, Corewave, Nvidia and AMD and I said that we really need to maintain the 79 line on Coreeave.
We briefly lost that line. Fortunately, we've recovered that. Well, you'll find that we are well lower than where we were when I gave that warning to people in the alpha report this morning. Even after this little popup recovery on Oracle saying the news that came out was fake news, we're still lower.
And you're seeing that on NBIS, you're seeing it on Nvidia, on AMD, you're seeing it on AVGO. Like if you were in the alpha report this morning and you listened to me say there is a rotation out of hardware be careful you would have been out at Broadcom at 387 versus the 364 where it sits now. So now Broadcom isn't necessarily a bad company.
I mean look at the balance sheet for for or uh Broadcom. It's actually phenomenal. You know Broadcom has $30 billion in cash and receivables. They have $18 billion of of bills. And sure, they have 71 billion of long-term debt, but this is a cash flow machine. Like, this company not only generates massive revenues in net income, you know, their net income is fantastic.
In the quarter, they generated $8 billion of net income, but they literally have $30.8 billion of cash flow per year. They could pay off all their debt in like two years with this cash flow and they're not spending a lot on capex. So, some of this selloff is likely very overblown. But why is it overblown?
It's overblown again because of private credit concerns. Look, folks, Deutsche Bank is telling you what could go wrong in the investment bubble. Debt. Debt. Debt. Debt. Debt. Debt. Debt. Debt. Now, we're going to talk about debt and how this relates to private credit. I want to mention this is exactly why my real estate startup has zero bank debt and we do now have a deadline to invest.
So, if you want to invest in my real estate startup, we are closing the fund raise. I talked to the board. We decided that now we are profitable so far Q4 through December 12th profitable paying any, you know, interest on our convertible bonds. We don't have any bank debt, so there's no interest to pay there.
Depreciation, like all of that included, our revenues are greater than our expenses. We just went profitable in Q4, which is great. Uh, but we don't need to pay, we believe, this 5% plus upside anymore. And so, we're going to close that round. Obviously, anybody who invests before December 31st locks that in, you know, .
Obviously, I encourage you a and wire. I don't think people should take on debt to inves the board decided we're going to close this because we're dropping our artificial intelligence software this month. Uh the revenues we're already seeing from our artificial intelligence pre-sale are really good.
Like people are buying this and the sales are great. And we're like, we're going to end this this fundraising round and get a new valuation and and raise at a higher valuation maybe in the future. But anyway, you can check that out. But the point is debt kills companies in a recession. Debt kills growth.
And it's not that people are really worried that Broadcom has a lot of debt because again in two years of cash flow they can pay off their debt. It's the fact that the entire industry is backed by debt right now. In fact, I want you to see this. There is literally an information piece from the information that reports that private credit bankers are working overtime right now to get debt allocations.
The information says bankers are working overtime to find money for data centers. Construction of data centers used to be done primarily by big banks. However, now the construction of data centers is actually being supported by what's called 42A private debt investments. That's a problem. Blackstone is doing this through their QTS fund.
They just raised $ 1.75 billion in November. They're raising another 1.65 in August. And Morgan Stanley predicted in July, now this is a big deal, too. Morgan Stanley predicted in July that private credit would be responsible for $800 billion of the $2.9 trillion in data center investments. I want you to put this to perspective for a moment.
27 out of every dollar that backs data center debt is coming from private credit. Do you see how this like links together all of a sudden? So all of a sudden you have this real risk that if we have a black swan in private credit, which you're literally seeing happening at First Brands, well maybe maybe it's unique, you know, maybe maybe First Brands is just a fraud, but you literally have this collapse of private credit happening in a way that we just don't see happening at First Brands.
And at the same time you see this private credit collapse, you literally have Morgan Stanley telling you that 27 cents out of every dollar that funds data centers is coming from private credit. So like I'm trying to make it as simple as possible because these institutions like nobody's going to tell you this stuff in a simple way and that's why I think I exist to try to give people perspective in a simple way and of course shill my own stuff cuz that's my job.
Okay? I love house hack. I love my startup. I love the stuff we sell. Can you fault me? I feel like that's entrepreneurship. But look at this. Goldman Sachs writes this like really nasty piece right here about how like the sensitivity of global yields to public debt has already started to inflect higher.
You don't even bother reading this bulk. Like I I have trouble understanding what they write here because they speak in this jargon that's just like can you please speak in American. So I translated this to freedom units and I wrote that in English in freedom as government debt goes up yields go up because investors think they're getting diluted by the government.
They are by money printing. This is true. This is a fact. The Fed is printing $60 billion per month. Okay, they're back to printing. And now look at this. which increases the premiums sought or demanded on bonds due to inflation risks rising as well. That's the third problem today. Schmidt, Goulby, Hammock, all of them are are complaining like little weeny babies about inflation.
So that's the third problem today. More on that in a bit. That makes debt harder to get or less desirable because you have to demand a higher premium which increases the sensitivity of markets to higher yields which means data centers want more debt and then investors get nervous because when you go over here to Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank has this giant piece on would the real AI bubble please stand up and they actually make it clear that a risk to uh this whole data center boom isn't necessarily Clearly this, you know, circular nature of all this crap, you know, that's a factor as well.
But it's right here, debt. Investment costs could spiral, forcing companies into debt more so than really ever before. So this makes sense like this is all logical and it also comes at the same time that we are stepping up against what what is really this you know this is a log chart right here of the progress that generative AI is making and they call it a red flag and I actually think that this is very accurate.
I think that GPT releases were really a step change towards encyclopedic AI not generative AI. I I think that AI is really good at telling you uh data based on historic data. Like yesterday I was looking at this historic data on our investments like people investing into house hack and it was really interesting because we're getting quote unquote more whale investors.
Let me see if I could find this. you could and I asked Gemini and GPT to uh I like take our data uh on investor amounts not people's private information just like the day they invested and uh and then align it with um how should I put it uh uh the day they invested oh and then the size of their investment right and so what they decided is they made a cut off at $50,000 invest I'm trying to find the darn thing oh there I found it uh They separated uh they said anybody investing more than 50k is a whale and anybody investing more than uh or less than 50k is is considered retail.
And what they said is at the beginning when we launched our reggga ah this is so blurry. Why is this so chart so blurry? At the beginning when we launched our reggga we had uh the blue is more retail under 50k investors. we were almost exclusively retail right here. And what they're saying over here is that we've had these like larger checks come in relative to retail.
And uh you know the conclusions the AIs were making on this sort of historic data were like oh you know people with bigger checks are like oh crap like you guys are like on to something with this AI and so you're getting substantially more big checks. But they also said there could also be a sign in there that you know the smaller check folks are struggling more in this economy and so you're seeing a higher percentage of richer people relative to the smaller check.
I don't I don't know. I thought it was interesting. Who knows, right? But when you align it with uh with what I'm trying to say here with this sort of hitting the wall, I personally think that AI and this is where I was going with this. era is really good at analyzing patterns of the past but not so good at generating future decisions.
This is why I don't think we have uh such strong gen AI that that is prone to hallucination and that's why I think on forwardlooking stuff like artificial general intelligence I think we're very far away on that. The problem with that is if it's true that we're going to hit sort of this wall. I mean, if you look at the data right here, if you look at this step change up of what the GPT30 moment and 35 moment was on a logarithmic scale, you know, we're not making that much progress.
That's a red flag that Deutsche Bank is arguing. You know, without getting too granular here, right? And so that's the problem when 27 cents out of every dollar that's going into data center expansion is driven by private credit that's now hitting a black swan at first brands. That's really bad. The Fed is trying to bail out private credit.
At the same time as you've got institutions going, "Yeah, AI is great. We could do a lot of things with this. Like we could do a lot to be practical today with machine learning." You know, like I think our real estate AI is like it's pattern recognition. It's it's machine learning that we trained and we tuned to create real productivity today.
That's great. But if people are investing as if we need data centers for artificial general intelligence, we're in a bubble, right? Because I don't think we're getting to artificial general intelligence. And if it's supported by debt that is now getting questioned, then that's a problem. See here, Goldman says, "We're also keeping NI a progress on or we're keeping our eyes on AI progress and doubts.
AI related hardware shipments to the US continue to increase. At the same time, AI bubble concerns continue to linger following Oracle's disappointing uh earnings with investors now parsing Broadcom's results. While we still believe that we were are not yet in AI bubble territory, we see the value in regional and style diversification.
I think it's really smart to argue for diversification right now. Like I I'm not trying to say this to be like, "Oh, please go diversify to house hack." Like, that's not my point. My point is, please, please, please, please, please. Like, I'm I and I say it almost every video. I'm mid-range. I'm like 5.6 or 5'8 or whatever on the Bear Bull scale.
The reason I'm not like go yolo margin. Somebody in my live stream this morning, they're like, Kevin, you know, there's a dip. should I go yolo up on margin? And like I was so disappointed that they said that I sent out this tweet. I'm like, let's put this into perspective. You know, somebody's asking me to go into margin here.
Like when you zoom out on the cues, like what the hell? No, no, please, please, please, please, please, please don't go into debt. Look at what's going on with the 10 two. We are we are like we just skyrocketed on the 10 two. Why are we skyrocketing on the 102? We're skyrocketing on the 10 two because the two-year yield is staying stable and the 10-year is going up.
So, we're bear steepening. What does that mean? It means markets are saying, "Oh crap." To save private credit, the Fed's going to have to run the money printer more, which means we have a greater risk of more inflation, which means 10-year yield premiums demanded up because you have to compensate for potentially higher inflation in the future because the money printing they're doing now to prop up the AI bubble because the Fed realizes the only thing keeping this economy alive right now is the AI bubble.
And if the AI bubble goes because private credit support for this market is going away, then you got problems. So obviously today when Oracle is like uh we're delaying data centers, that was a rumor apparently. Oracle says fake news, right? Oracle's like hey we're delaying our open AI data center from 2027 to 2028.
Oracle tanked. You know then it comes out that oh it's actually just fake news. Is it though? Is it fake news? I've I mean like don't get me wrong, I love my Teslas, but I've seen Elon Musk say, "Oh, that's fake news to reporting plenty of times." Only for it to be exactly what was actually going on.
And like I look at OpenAI and call me jaded, but this is what I wrote. Okay, the Oracle, this report says Oracle has pushed back the completion date for some models of data centers it's developing for the artificial intelligence model developer uh OpenAI to 2028 from 2027. I wrote in response to this, the delays are largely due to labor and material shortages.
By the way, all of this is in the Meet Kevin app by the way. Uh so like if you download the Meet Kevin app, which is totally free, you download the Meet Kevin app, you could see this you know, right here. So, you can kind of see that data and you can kind of like see where I get the stuff from and my citations, my sources or whatever.
But anyway, so what did I write to this? I go, what if this is a lie? The delays are largely due to labor and material shortages. What if that's a lie? What if Oracle is delaying OpenAI data centers because OpenAI's code red is real despite what Altman says? And ultimately, OpenAI is signaling that their growth slowdown is coming.
Like I canceled my GPT subscription and I went to Gemini a few months ago. Now what are they doing? GPT is offering me 100% off. You've got 100% off plus for a month. So they're giving me 100% off to try to get me to come back. And I'm like I don't I don't know. You know this incredible. That's incredible.
So uh then you know I saw these comments from David Sachs. Now, sorry guys and girls. Uh, I I am not going to read this out loud, but this is what I call him. David Saxs of I'm not going to read it out loud. Somebody left me a comment yesterday said, "Kevin, I try to watch your videos with my family.
You said a bad word. I don't know if I could keep watching." I'm like, "Okay, I won't say poopy dupy words." So, so anyway, um, David Saxs says, "More jobs are being created than lost by AI." I think he's smoking dope. Like I think he's smoking, you know, some like deregulated cannabis here. Like I don't know.
He's on something. I think he's he's delusional to say that. Uh and then see China not accepting H200s as they're an old generation. I don't know if that's true. I don't really have a comment here maybe. Uh but I think this is convenient shilling for Donald Trump and it's likely untrue. That's my opinion.
Uh okay. So, like when we put all of this together, understand that Oracle CDS's just hit an all-time high. The previous high was 12814 on 122 for Oracle. We briefly hit the 120s during the chip recession of 2022 uh during that that Q4 time uh Q3 Q4 period. But we are now at the highest CDS pricing, credit default swap pricing for Oracle since 2008.
insane. Uh, mind you, what I also think is really cool about our machine learning is our machine learning that we do with our AI at house hack, you know, it's not just some like crewappy rapper or whatever. We don't actually rely on a lot of server uh capacity because we can we can analyze properties throughout the nation once and then deliver that analysis you know to people paying for the service without rerunning the server compute multiple times for each person.
So it's kind of like we have to run the compute once and then we could feed the answers through our SAS and just we're like that keeps cost way down. It's kind of clutch. Uh, sorry. I I I I I get excited because I'm like, I see the problems. Okay, the problems are in debt, but that doesn't make all AI bad.
It's the problems are in private credit. And so, this is why, you know, people are concerned about the 102 rising and debt because that's the only thing propping this up right now. Uh, let's look at some other institutional pieces because this is bullish. Also, Goldman Sachs actually sees an acceleration of AI adoption supporting earnings per share in 2026 and 27.
This is bullish. They forecast an S&P 500 growth of 12% year-over-year in 2026. Uh, and they think that 46% of that EPS contribution is driven by Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta. Now I personally am partial to um uh the advertisers in this Meta, Google, Netflix, you know Netflix calls their advertising revenue insignificant.
I think that has a huge upshot and Meta and Google are huge advertisers and I think they all need to advertise their products. You know I think uh there was another piece about uh here was another piece from Goldman about cyclical sectors should see an acceleration next year. They had real estate tied for second next year for growth.
That was cool. Mostly, I think, because they see the middle income people sort of like actually getting back to real wage growth next year, which I think is supportive to rents going up. But anyway, uh they think that um productivity baskets for AI come from banking, insurance, retail, warehouse, transportation, logistics, healthcare, and restaurants.
My favorite plays there are things like but Palanteer's valuation's too high. But I think rather than picking banks or finance companies, I like picking the companies that support those companies. So a basket of those would be like Palanteer, Salesforce, UiPath. Uh those I'm excited about. You know, one of those I think is very cheap and is a very good opportunity.
Uh it's on our top 10 stocks to buy uh for the next 10 years list in the alpha report. Uh remember the alpha reports, that report I do every morning where I'm like, "Hey, here are the risks for the day." And uh you get that at meet.com. And what a lot of people are doing is they're buying the membership uh which now includes the Reinvest course cuz we just dropped that.
They're buying the membership with the nine courses, the trade alerts, the private live streams and everything. They're buying this. Then they're using the course member coupon to buy the Reinvest AI. Not a solicitation. Read the authoring circular before investing in Reinvest. But anyway, um you know what I thought was notably missing from their list was the amount of productivity potential for real estate that you can get with AI.
And I actually think I'm ahead of a lot of the institutions on that because I see how I could turn AI into real productivity uh in in in analyzing the net worth potential boosts that you could get from renovating real estate or acquiring real estate and prioritizing deals and doing that for agents as well.
uh you know automatic alerts from your agent on net worth deals. I mean like agents would love to pay for that and it's a tax write off for them, right? So anyway, I actually think I'm ahead of institutions on that, but if you disagree with me, that's okay. Look at these other categories. That's what Goldman is at least saying.
But I also agree with Goldman on that. Like that is where I think EPS growth comes from. And that's why I said in the alpha report this morning that I think that you're seeing a fade away from uh the chip sector uh from hardware. I mean, what did I specifically write in the alpha report this morning?
I said that Cororeweave needs to hold up 7927 otherwise that's bearish. Uh and then as far as uh I wrote quote I expect profit taking in the physical chip exposure to continue and then parenthetically I wrote ago Eric uh Ericle Oracle AMD Nvidia and then I also pointed out the amplification of the private credit stress uh which is that first brand's problem.
So like there are issues. Some of these things though, they're going to create buy the dips in like the downstream profit potential uh that you could get from artificial intelligence. So that's why I kind of maintain like as long as the Fed's money printing can kind of save the private credit problem, you could plug this debt problem at these data center places in place and you can actually meaningfully recover.
So, we're really relying on the Fed to bail us out right now because this first brand stuff is bad. Very bad. Very bad. Black swan. And that's Look at this. The 102 spread just shot up to 67. No, not 67. No. No. Oh, no. It's a sign. Okay. Historically, why why does this matter? People ask me like, "Kevin, why does historically this matter?" Okay, so historically the 102 matters for the following reason.
The 102 has never ever gone into inversion uh and and come out without a recession. So understand that risk, right? And and this is why I said to course members this morning, companies like Carvana and SoFi are actually or or even like companies that don't have revenue like um Archer Aviation have a very unique recession risk because they don't have cash flows to sustain the business.
Like you know we went we just went Q4 profitable. This is great because like with house this applies to all companies. Use this as a lesson for all companies but like we've got 9 mil in the bank. We got, you know, what 80 70 80 million of paid off real estate with no bank debt. Uh we've got uh cash flow to support our operations.
Like that's what you want. But like SoFi, for example, I love SoFi, don't get me wrong. I'm a member of SoFi, but they rely on selling their stock to generate loans. A company like Archer Aviation relies on selling their stock because they have no revenue. They're pre-revenue. Carvana relies on insiders selling the stock to buy the debt that Carvana generates when they sell cars.
So you're kind of like creating this cyclical, you know, debt infused stock reliant like process there. All of that collapses in a recession, right? So you want to be recession resilient. So ironically, that's actually why I mean like Broadcom with these these margins, dude, they are recession resilient.
They're selling at a discount. Uh so is Oracle. Oracle's got a lot of debt though. I get it. I get why their CDS's are going up, but uh you know these companies, their stocks can tank because of these debt fears because the cycle might not continue. Uh and then you have to write down growth rates and then all of a sudden their valuations look expensive.
That's I think why Nvidia is selling for a discount. Why is Nvidia selling for you know a 40% discount on their peg? they should be worth $300 today. Well, it's because the market goes if private credit plumbing doesn't get solved that future growth collapses. So, going back to the 102, the historical significance of the 102 is that we have never had an inversion of the 102 yield curve and then recovered without a recession.
We came close in 1995 and we went to shock level in in 1995. You know, we went to about 0.55 on the 102 spread, but usually once we're over.5, we're at shock level. And then all it takes is a straw to break the camel's back. So why is the 102 at 67 today? Well, because you just had a black swan in private credit, which is the very thing supporting these data center buildouts, which is the very thing supporting the whole cycle of this this chip euphoria.
I mean again look at Deutsche Bank's piece on the cyclical investments of the AI bubble right so they here say that you know Deutsche Bank JP Morgan Goldman Sachs all of them by the way agree that the bubble is still ahead will the real bubble please stand up okay all of them look at they've got a robot blowing a bubble here and they're like it's true that you know we have a red flag that we're at these high valuations uh and that maybe we hit a wall in terms of how good this AI actually is.
All of it comes down to debt. Where is the cyclical this there? Like yes, all this can keep going as long as private credit gets plugged. I mean, look at this. Let's just follow one of these. Okay, Oracle. So, Oracle buys 800,000 Nvidia GPUs and buys 50,000 MI450 GPUs from um from AMD. Okay. Oracle then purchases uh 300 billion worth of compute.
Oh, sorry. Open AAI purchases compute from OpenAI. Oh my gosh. OpenAI purchases compute from Oracle. But OpenAI gets investments from Nvidia and AMD. And then OpenAI spends money on compute from Oracle who's buying these chips. Like the basic premise is that it's all a big cycle. It's all a big circle, right?
And the better Open AI does, the more uh uh the valuation of OpenAI rises, which props up the stakes that companies have taken in OpenAI for Nvidia or whatever. That's why when you hear Oracle saying, "Hey, you know, there's a rumor that maybe our data center expansion will slow at the same time as people are freaking out about private credit." Wait, is it because of labor and material shortages, or is this actually just a lie?
and OpenAI's code rev is true and their user growth is stalling. So they're like, "Hey, maybe we don't need that 2027 data center. Maybe kick the can down the road a little bit on that." And then because of OpenAI's request, Oracle delays the data center. And then that gets leaked as OpenAI is delaying the data center because of labor and material issues because they would never want to say that OpenAI delayed it because the whole Sam Alman Ponzi will collapse.
So yeah, we're at like a a precipice of of a pile of poopy dupy. That's why there's so much nervousness in the markets right now. And the Fed is literally printing money to try to stop this and prop this up. Now, unfortunately, we just rejected 617 on the cues. Not great. Not great. Somebody's Freudian slip.
They're all the same company at this point. That's a good one. I mean, hey, you know, like I don't blame you saying that. Like, it does almost feel that way, doesn't it? It's it's kind of wild. It's absolutely wild right now. David writes, "Excited to be invested in house." Well, thank you for saying that.
Uh, private equity, private investments, and credit are intertwined through co-investments. Private equity vehicles generally have a 5 to sevenyear runway for funds, which means real pain could be unrealized for years. Yeah. But but it's not just the potential for, you know, the bankruptcies down the road.
The the real problem is that you got to keep getting new debt. It's not the old debt that's the problem. It's we need all the new debt to come in. That's the problem, right? So, uh I don't know. That's why that's why when people are like, "Kevin, is now the time to yolo on margin?" I go, "No, don't do that." You know, I'd much rather turn garbage to gold and uh, you know, in take a little Ben Mal infusion there.
You know, here's a property we just bought at a massive discount, for example, and we will turn this massive turd into something beautiful just like we just did. Like we just scanned this property two days ago, two or three days ago. Uh and we just removed this kitchen. I'm about to go film it and I'll show you a video of it later.
But we're going to And then we just leased this property out which we just transformed. Uh you can see new kitchen, beautiful cabinets, lazy susans, beautiful backyard, blahy blahy blahy. Look at our little candalabbras. How nice. Uh but that's what we do, you know. and then AI on top of it obviously.
So anyway, you want to learn more about that, go to reinvest.co. Uh we are ending the fund raise at the end of the month. The board decided that I called him up. We have a board meeting next week, but I actually I thought it was prudent to call them up and go, "We need to decide on this now." And so I put all the uh you know, I put I I pled my case to our board members and they're like, "Kevin, you should end it.
End it December 31st." So that's what we're doing. All right, folks. Appreciate y'all being here. Seriously, good luck out there. I love y'all. And uh no matter what happens, always remember that your boy Meet Kevin's here with you. And we'll make money together and we'll lose money together. But I'll be reporting on everything together with you. We'll see you. I'll call them. &. He'.
Comments 0