저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영상은 캘리포니아 Santa Barbara의 1910년식 3베드룸 2베스 고쳐 살 집을 검토한 과정을 다룬다. 부대시설(증축부 허가 여부), 1950년 이전 건물의 지진 보강 필요성, 기초 문제 등 리스크를 짚고, 매각(플립)·장기임대·단기임대(Airbnb)·ADU 추가 네 가지 수익 방식을 수치로 비교한다. 결론적으로 시장 상승기에는 딜을 사 모으고, 하락기에 재개발에 자금을 쓰는 '리세션 해킹' 전략을 제시한다. 증권 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
my beautiful wife Lauren always said Kevin if you're in you stay loyal you don't go shopping for other houses see she' we're in the process of buying a house that's turned into quite the disaster so I decided to go house-hunting while that disaster is going on along the side now in this video you're going to learn a lot about protecting yourself when it comes to investing in real estate and if you say to the end you'll even get a recession hack for making a lot of money in real estate while the market is falling now it's commonly said only write offers if you're planning on buying all the properties that your writing offers on well while that could be a possibility I'd really only prefer to buy one of these fixers right now and I don't have a lot of hope for the foundation disaster house on quicksand so it all started today when I took Jack to Ojai to check out an open house yeah now I was a bit confused at first because the agent suggested it was an open house and there wasn't a lockbox except he didn't actually mean there was an open house so this house ended up being a bit of a tease not only is there no roof but the house is built on three different levels with almost three different foundations and I really didn't see much hope for actually using the existing floor plan or the existing framing that was present see what I'm really looking for is a cosmetic remodel something where I could put $5.00 in and get 10 to 15 dollars back in market value I'm really not interested in dealing with engineers architects foundation work structural work it's just too expensive and it's not going to make me money so I decided to drive over to Santa Barbara now a lot of you know that I use the 30 minute rule that is I won't invest anywhere I can't drive to within 30 minutes and hey when I've mapped these properties today each of them were just 29 minutes away from my house the traffic might have been perfect but hey it was within the 30 minute rule when I went to visit them anyway arriving in Santa Barbara one of my favorite sites was unfolding there were people competing for my temptress for the house see a lot of people get nervous when they see other buyers looking at the same property they are I think the opposite I think safety when you buy real estate your safety net is either to rent the property or sell it here's nothing like an army of competition to show you that if things go wrong you have an army of competition to sell the place to yourself now I don't plan on things are going wrong I just know that I'm in the right place when there is competition it's usually a bad sign if you think a property is a really really good deal and the property is on the market yet there's no competition it's a really good red flag now let me explain this house a bit and some of the landmines within it and then I'm gonna talk to you about how you can profit from this property in four different ways we're gonna run the numbers on those and then we're gonna talk about that recession hack so this is a three-bedroom two-bath about 1,200 a square foot fixer-upper it was built in 1910 and what I just said should have already shot a red flag up in your mind see this property is a three-bedroom two-bath but back in 1910 builders didn't build two-bath properties properties were either 2-bedroom 1-bath 3 & 1 4 & 1 sometimes more rarely 5 & 1 1 bathroom was all that was generally built during this time so this is where I immediately thought to myself I need to check the permit records on this addition but not only that in my real estate investing course a link below which you could take advantage of the black a cyber or sale coupon through Saint mix a day which is December 6th think of it like that chocolate in your boots that sweet bonus I generally advise against buying properties with editions and if you take a look at this property you'll kind of see why you go from this kitchen into this like odd mudroom which then goes to this 3/4 bath that has a pink piling now the pink tiling is not a big deal but the pink tiling is actually another dead giveaway that this addition was probably done in the 50s which the downside of that is there might not be records for this addition if there aren't records for this addition basically it's not a permitted addition but let's just assume it was a permitted addition not only is the layout of this addition somewhat funky but it's completely destroyed the backyard functionality of the property there's also going to hurt one of our abilities to make money with this property which again we'll talk about shortly now the other thing that I don't really like our properties built before 1950 in California unless they've had earthquake retrofitting work done to them earthquake retrofitting work can be very expensive and I'm just really not interested in doing it unless I'm getting a smokin'-hot deal and ideally I just want to do the cosmetics because again I want to make money and I don't want another job I just want a side hustle now as much as I like hardwood floor the original window benches and someone kind enough to install a peephole in one of the bedrooms for me with a dangling light which I thought you only saw that kind of stuff in the movies and I was pretty sure they messed up walls like this for Halloween sets but anyway I wasn't super jazzed about having this add-on and losing the backyard potential when I went through the house I did my usual as well I checked for plumbing issues electrical issues and I tried seeing what things I could salvage that's pretty cool huh hey Jack do you think we can keep these cabinets yep they work keep everything now unfortunately because this is at the outskirts of my radius so to speak my 30 minute radius I'm not as familiar with the neighborhood and let's just say when I got back and looked up crime reports for the neighborhood this particular neighborhood has crime somewhere between two to three times as high as crime in my neighborhood which definitely shocked me because I thought wait a minute Santa Barbara is more expensive I mean this is a six hundred twenty thousand dollar house that's going to get multiple offers built in 1910 that needs everything with no backyard you'd think the neighborhood wouldn't be a problem so we already know that the addition is a potential land mine and now we know the neighborhood is a potential land mine we know the age is a potential mine and pretty much we're dealing with original elements throughout when I stuck my head under the foundation access Hall I also found what was essentially an unmodified original foundation based on the limited view that I had which in other words implies I would probably have to do foundation work as well in fact when I sent a picture of this sort of curved a stucco side of the property to my foundation expert I asked them hey is this bad and this is what he had to say yes really bad it looks like the footing is rotating or the framing is really rotten big big problem so what are you left with in terms of options for this property and when do we get to making money in a recession well here the options flip at rent and air B&B it or Adu it so now let's break down those numbers because that was a little fast you can flip this property the house would probably sell for somewhere between 875 to $900,000 fixed up with around $80,000 a fix-up you'd get pretty dang far it is a small house after all this is of course assuming that the addition ends up being permitted now with about fifty two thousand dollars in selling costs your breakeven would be around seven hundred forty thousand dollars in other words every dime that you buy this place for under seven hundred forty thousand dollars is profit for you so quick math if you buy it for six hundred eighty thousand dollars you can expect to make about a sixty thousand dollar profit based on these numbers now if you choose not to sell it and you decide to keep it as a rental your break-even point would actually go up substantially because you don't have to pay Realtors and escrow fees to sell the property so in this case your break-even point might be closer to eight hundred thousand dollars in which case getting the property for six hundred eighty thousand dollars might leave you with somewhere around a $120,000 wedge or equity position six hundred eighty purchase price eighty thousand for fix up and holding costs is seven hundred sixty thousand dollars in and we think the property should be worth somewhere around $880,000 we said eight seventy five to nine hundred go with eight eighty to be conservative these are just really rough approximations but obviously you make more money if you don't have to sell the property and Yuki instead now this option number two method of renting the property would probably get you about $3,200 in rent which honestly isn't superb mostly because of the price point and what it would take to actually get this place rental now the better option actually seems to be err bein being it now in Santa Barbara there is only a limited part of the town where air B&B czar permitted at all if you're outside that zone you cannot air B&B the property out it's very important to be familiar with local rules and regulations when it comes to vacation rentals fortunately this property does fall within the Airbnb zone so it could be converted into an air B&B but there's some problems with that first though let me say err DNA the website that and no this is not sponsored the website that gives you some kind of estimates as far as what you might expect to be able to rent out the property for and what you might be able to get on an annual basis from the property thinks that this property could rent out as an Airbnb nightly vacation rental for somewhere around five hundred forty six dollars a night at forty six percent occupancy this would be about seven thousand five hundred dollars in monthly revenue I personally think that's a way high the way I was doing my numbers is this place might rent out for $299 per night at 50% of vacancy which would net me somewhere around forty five hundred dollars before Airbnb fees and taxes so that's where you can definitely see this sort of like classic rental arbitrage where if you rent it out on the nightly basis you're still going to net more money because you're putting in more work but then you have to decide do you want that extra cash flow with the extra work or would you rather just rent it out on a year lease now the problem that I mentioned with Airbnb anus property is in this particular city if you choose to convert it into an air B&B there's a chance that you will never be able to add an accessory dwelling unit which is option number four adding a dwelling unit to the garage or completely removing the garage and building a new dwelling unit or even possibly a duplex in that spot if you added one rental unit in the back you could probably rent out the rental unit in the back for about $1,800 and it would probably cost you around $150,000 to add this accessory dwelling unit or convert in the garage ballpark now all of a sudden instead of just getting $3,200 in rent you'd be getting $5,000 in rent if you pick the place up for 680 you put your 80 K in for fix-up and your hundred fifty K in for the 80 you you still into the deal for nine hundred ten thousand dollars so the cash flows are still not amazing but for Santa Barbara this is getting a lot of people excited for me personally I'm not a big fan of building when the market is going up and there are opportunities to buy deals see this is the recession hack when prices are low or there are opportunities to buy deals low when prices are going up it doesn't make sense for me to tie up a hundred fifty thousand dollars to an accessory dwelling unit I would rather focus on controlling these kinds of deals then when I control the deals I can decide to develop them if the market starts falling so here's what I mean I would rather today take that hundred fifty thousand dollars and go shop for more good deals if the market starts off falling and prices start going down I won't be buying but I might still have money from my earned income that I want to invest in which case rather than buying deals in a falling market I can then choose to add or convert something to an accessory dwelling unit or develop a duplex or whatever with that money instead that way while the markets doing well or the markets going up I'm buying wedge deals and I'm keeping things as simple long-term rentals and getting instant equity remember I would expect my instant equity in this deal to be somewhere around $120,000 if I could pick it up for six hundred eighty thousand dollars I wouldn't want to pay much more than that but I'm about to go into that part then once the time comes around where prices start falling again kind of like that crash that we had in 2018 that might be the kind of time that it would make sense to hire a contractor and go through the redevelopment opportunity because that way I'm always investing my money at the most opportune times it doesn't make sense for me to tie up a bunch of money in construction when there's so many deals to be had on the market right now so by writing an offer I cheated on the house we were in escrow unfortunately when I went to write my offer on this property through the negotiation tactics that I teach I found out what the other offers were and found out that I was going to get beat really badly by a 1031 exchange buyer unfortunately 1031 exchange buyers are the worst ones to compete with because they have a darn deadline to buy something which makes them the best buyer for a seller on to the next one that's good good job jack flocked do you think that's safe yeah all right let's go yeah that would be pretty funny you you
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