저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2025년 핵심 전망으로 달러 스테이블코인 사용 급증(2024년 2분기 거래량이 Visa의 2배 이상)을 꼽고, 스테이블코인이 카드 결제 독점을 깰 것이라 주장. 휴머노이드/자율 로봇 확산, 신용부도스왑(CDS) 보험 매수(꼬리위험 헤지), 중국 기술주 반등 가능성, 원전 건설 확대(규제완화 전제), 은행 위기 및 Arcane 규제 변화(보충레버리지비율)로 부채 문제를 우회하려는 시도를 전망. 비트코인은 2024년 예측이 적중했다고 언급.
다듬은 글
I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double visas transaction volume billionaire investor chamath Palapa believes stablecoin adoption will be a big Trend in 2025 becoming a mainstream tool for wholesale transactions in the business sector chath made this prediction during the latest episode of the all-in podcast where he and other besties made several predictions for the financial world and the global economy in 2025 one of chim's most poignant predictions is his prediction for stable coins in 2025 shath believes stablecoins will be the biggest business winner this year skyrocketing and adoption and easily dwarfing the duopoly of visa and MasterCard this is similar to chim's prediction for Bitcoin in 2024 early last year shath named Bitcoin as his most anticipated trend of the year he predicted that the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds would be huge for Bitcoin intensifying adoption and and making the leading cryptocurrency very profitable for investors chamath made four predictions for Bitcoin all of which were right on the mark first he predicted that 2024 would be the most important year for Bitcoin since its creation chamath also predicted that Bitcoin would cross the chasm and really see mainstream adoption his third prediction was that Bitcoin would become so widely known and accepted that older Generations would easily be able to buy and hold it Math's final prediction was that Bitcoin would become a part of the traditional Financial lexicon by the end of 2024 not only did Bitcoin adoption grow significantly in 2024 as the billionaire predicted with many Boomers coming on board through ibit and other spot Bitcoin ETFs but mainstream financial publications like Barons also published articles about investing in Bitcoin especially through the ETFs for this year chath is focusing on stable coins and he is predicting a growth in adoption and suitable regulations for them chath and American entrepreneur and businessman David Friedberg make more predictions including their best performing assets for 2025 and most anticipated trends for the year as we bring you clips from the video please take a little time to like this video subscribe to the channel and turn on post notifications for more videos like this thanks for the support and enjoy the video I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins o I'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened the first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 2024 the second and this data is still just trickling in but it's an incredible stat stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that's summed to 8.5 trillion of transaction volume if you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double Visa's transaction volume so I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to how last year I thought that the big Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I would say that the big Trend in 25 is stable coin usage I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of of visa and MasterCard I think you're going to see an inal number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails I think when Donald Trump becomes president I think you're going to see him go after incredibly High credit card transactions and costs you're already seeing tracks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025 I think and I think stable coin could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25 I think it's just going to be an enormous Market great choice should they be regulated chamath we saw at some of these Congressional hearings tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool for terrorism for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking should it be regulated and how I I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should but I think the point is that there are these immutable logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions and so I think the knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag yes out of the global economy massive gain how valuable would that be and I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars so so the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me so I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous Hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year of kind of compute buildout and the roll out of AI system in software I think 2025 will be the year of the robot you know there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called unry Gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible product so their go2 robot is $1600 has an API here it is you can run a payload on it it's got light r on it it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier but really you can use it in scientific applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test Farms where it can wander the farm and take images and Report data back to us and it's such a low cost at like less than $3,000 you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a couple hundred million dollars last month from Mostly Chinese investors it's a Chinese company and I think that there's going to be you know other similar type businesses you know it kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like oh my God I can't believe this is here for his best performing asset for the year 2025 chath says he's buying credit default swaps as insurance against any default event in 2025 credit default swaps or CDs are Financial derivatives that act as insurance against a borrower's default the buyer of the CDs pays periodic premiums to the seller in exchange for a promise to compensate them if a specified credit event for example a bond default or bankruptcy occurs example suppose investor a owns $10 million in bonds issued by company X if investor a fears company X might default they can buy a CDs from investor B investor a pays periodic premiums if company X defaults investor B compensates investor a for the loss investing in CDs can be beneficial in specific market conditions such as when investors anticipate Rising credit risk in certain sectors or during periods of high geopolitical risks or economic recessions let's get back to the video as chamath and Friedberg discuss their best performing assets and most anticipated trends of 20125 so let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 90 two times out of 100 goes to absolute zero okay and six out of the remaining eight times you make 10 extra money and then the final two times you make anywhere between a 100 to a th000 extra money okay sounds like Bitcoin okay so this is a loser trade okay but I would be long CDs so what am I buying I am buying insurance I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps I'm buying what's called protection that there is no default event in 2025 again I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year I hope it doesn't happen I hope that this trade like I said 92 times out of 100 loses money I hope it loses money but if it hits it will be the best performing asset of 2025 it will be the equivalent of acman buying CDs right at the right at the beginning of the covid crisis how does one buy those you have to have an isda you talk to the big investment Banks and they'll price it out for you but again I and and I just want to be clear this is not something think will happen it's not something I want to happen but I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you when you look at the concentration of the S&P when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have when you look at rate spiking all of these things say having a little Insurance may not be a bad thing so you know chim's prediction of a bank failure is true you absolutely want to own CDs you I mean you'll you forget 100x you'll a THX 10,000x what do you got freeberg so I went with Chinese tech stocks the Chinese Tech ETFs I think that the market everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years everyone's taken this isolation stance on positioning portfolios and saying hey we can't do business with China it's over but I do think that the Trump Administration particularly with their recent request on Tik Tok being the ban on Tik Tok being kind of Ed they're trying to line up what I would call kind of like the great deal with China so I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do but I think that Trump and leadership in the US government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market and I think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with China I think that they're very likely to kind of get a deal done that's one driver I think there's three drivers the second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of electricity production in China is unfathomable they recently approved $137 billion hydroelectric Dam facility which is going to add another I think couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country not to mention all the nuclear buildout we've talked about in the past so the cost per kilowatt hours already lower the amount of electricity available is going up and then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible ability to throttle up and down free markets and Entrepreneurship and this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more Innovation more free market activity and it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal so when you put all of this together I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead and I think that that may not be the case going into 25 and I think that there these stocks look pretty cheap I was just looking at Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple it seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run into 2 let's go for most anticipated 2025 Trend what do you got Chim I think that there are a handful of not to overuse and overuse term but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep State and I would like to point to one which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio and essentially what it is is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves etc etc now why is this an interesting thing it's not interesting for many people it's very Arcane but if we are unable to manage the debt situation in 2025 I think what you're going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these Arcane regulations that effectively Kick the Can down the road and there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because you know we believe that we meaning collectively America that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be that there's still going to need to be you know 102 trillion dollars of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years my point in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalposts here it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show the ones that we all elected okay so that is my most anticipated Trend small Arcane regulatory changes that allow us to Kick the Can down the road stop in its tracks this is an example my most anticipated trend is around the announcement of buildout of nuclear power in the United States in 2025 as a function of deregulation and some new technologies I do think that this new government is going to be uh much more accommodating and it's going to as I've said in the past I think it's a necessity just because of the the the rate at which we have to do power build outs to meet kind of competitive demand against China the United States is going to need to add more power electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source so I do believe that nuclear is an inevitability I think that the deregulation will happen in 25 and I do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies hm and have left very good jobs to go and do this in anticipation of this happening in 25 so I'm very bullish chath seems to be preparing for some disturbance in the US and global economy in 2025 his analysis raises concerns about the US economy and ailing sectors like the banking industry several Regional banks have faced significant difficulties including the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 and First Republic Bank in April 2023 these events have raised concerns about the resilience of smaller financial institutions in addition the number of bank failures has risen with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FDIC adding two banks with combined assets of $84 billion to its problem Bank list in the third quarter of 2024 this brings the total to 68 signaling potential risks within the banking system there are also concerns that anticipated changes in US banking regulations under the new Administration could affect Capital requirements and consumer protections while some expect a more favorable environment for mergers and Acquisitions others are concerned about potential increases in tariffs and their impact on inflation and interest rates the global banking industry is also contending with challenges such as geopolitical tensions supply chain disruptions and the shift towards sustainability though A disruption in the banking system will be tragic for many it may have some positive implications for the cryptocurrency space in the long run when traditional Banks experience instability or failure individuals and businesses may look for alternative Financial systems cryptocurrencies being decentralized and not riant on banks become more attractive as a safe haven or store of value what do you think will be the most anticipated trends of 2025 and the best performing assets of the year please drop your replies as well as thoughts on shth and friberg's predictions and insightful analysis in the comments section below also ensure you like this video subscribe to the channel turn on the notifications Bell and check out our other videos everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the Channel's growth thanks for watching e
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