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well Tesla short sellers are up 17 billion dollars Tesla hit a low of 72 percent down year to date with a 42 drop alone in December however is it possible that now the stock has hit a bottom take a look at this here this is uh Tesla stock hitting a rough Bounce Around the 106.82 level which is an interesting one because it comes from a Fibonacci retracement line from us going on the weekly all the way back to the low of March of 2020 however it is not the zero percent FIB line it's our next unit up so does that mean Tesla has another leg to go down or is what we've seen with Incredible volumes here on the right just a sign of retail capitulation in the face of short Sellers as well as end of the year tax loss harvesting which is potentially now near or already come to an act well nobody knows but what we do know is that in my last Tesla video I talked a little bit about the valuation of Tesla the future evaluation of Tesla and when we looked at the future evaluation of Tesla there were some folks who were a little bit angry with my opinion and I'm going to provide you an explanation of why they were angry and where they might actually be going wrong so here is that spreadsheet we talked about how if Tesla sold vehicles at an average revenue per vehicle of forty seven thousand dollars which is about five thousand dollars less than what they get per vehicle now and you produce 4.2 million Vehicles so we get a certain valuation that we spit out it's worth noting that 4.2 million vehicles in 2025 isn't too extreme it assumes somewhere around 1.25 million vehicles in Shanghai which I expect that once China opens up again the next few years could be a stimulative boom time for China so having a company with exposure to China right now sucks because you're going through covet shutdown owns lower registrations lower vehicle sales lower Subway ridership obviously because everybody's sick and then Tesla Fremont in California at about a million Vehicles Tesla Austin 1 million Tesla Berlin and a million you get to 4.25 now if the company stopped growing there you wouldn't be able to pay as much for Tesla stock because everything with Tesla stock is about growth it's a growth company so when we compare companies we have to compare growth rates for various different companies and so Tesla can't stop here and we don't expect they will in fact we expect that soon they're going to announce their gigafactory in Northeast Mexico which could in the future receive Investments of at first a billion dollars but in the future up to 10 billion dollars as Tesla potentially takes advantage of lower labor costs somewhere around 350 to 4 bucks an hour hopefully raising those wages in Mexico but still way less than what you see in California and maybe even produces a Model A two or a 25 000 vehicle smaller range maybe two-door smaller battery pack smaller costs but still takes advantage of that potential full self-driving Revenue which that full self-driving is getting pretty dang awesome in fact if you just consider a 30 take rate of full self driving by 2025.
oh boy it changes things pretty nicely but we'll remove this in a second because I do like to be conservative and that's why I purposely put in zero for semis Insurance Tesla bot uh third-party FSD sales we don't want to get too carried away we'll stick with the 30 expense margin although this kit in the short term get hammered down to maybe 26 27 as commodity costs and contracts still lag High even though they Trend down it takes a while for those to actually those lower commodity prices to get built into contracts that Tesla negotiates and on FSD we could really assume maybe what a 10 expense ratio this is really where you get high margin Revenue but anyway in this example at a 31 p e ratio we're sitting at 423 bucks by the end of 2025.
now in my last video that's not actually the p e ratio I used in fact in the last video I took out FSD here and what we did is we actually had a 50 times multiple showing about a future value of around 585 dollars which would give you about a 69 rate of return every year for the next three years if you bought around 120 bucks a share and people just about lost it with this p e ratio of 50.
but what they fail to realize is growth growth is so critically important when it comes to valuing a stock in fact an easy thing to do is to show you the following take a look at these various different companies that happen to be part of an actively managed ETF that has almost a 25 allocation to Tesla which name of course we won't mention uh in this video at this moment but let's just say these are some of the Holdings in it uh actually not all of them some of these Holdings are actually removed but anyway um let's take a look at some of these companies so if you look at a company like apple you might see that Apple trades for a p e ratio of about 20.
and it has an EPS or growth rate of earnings per share of around eight percent well that means apple is selling for about 2.53 times Peg and all I did to get that number is divide 20.23 by 8 percent that's it so in other words how many times earnings am I paying for the stock right p e ratio is very simple earnings are six bucks and 23 cents times 20 equals 126.
really really simple and now if I divide that ratio by how much their earnings are actually growing or expected to grow over that extra years I get a ratio of 2.53 very simple apparently in people's very very clearly forget uh forget all of uh how you have to Value growth when it comes to growth companies and if you don't like growth companies then you might not like the PEG ratio because this is all about investing in growth companies look for example here if Nvidia grows earnings at 38 which looking at this now might be a little bit high but their p e ratio sitting around 32.19 they might be at a PEG ratio of just 0.85 ignore the dollar sign this isn't really a dollar it's just a multiple look at AMD 0.68 and so if you just look at the companies that are low right now you'll see companies like solaredge AMD Nvidia look really really low whereas companies that look high or companies like Taiwan semiconductors right now Apple a little bit on the higher side cloudflare quite much or quite well here on the high side and even potentially Etsy a little bit on the higher side at about two point two five whereas the low ones are companies like Embraer at point four three percent Tesla at point four four percent even trade desk at 1.65 not bad or Generac at 1.14 this is just a way of valuing companies based on how much we expect them to grow in this case for Tesla we would expect EPS growth to be somewhere around 45 percent to arrive at this kind of PEG ratio now that's different from what Wall Street is estimating so what I've done is I've put together a spreadsheet of what Wall Street is estimating and I'll give you a little bit of an idea of how this Compares and then how it could actually play out so the following are the Bloomberg consensus estimates for various different companies you can see Toyota over the next four years is expected to only grow at 1.6 that's it that actually puts their PEG ratio pretty high at 6.67 times very expensive Ford GM and Tesla actually all look much cheaper and as much as I hate to give credit where credit's due Ford and GM don't look that expensive when you use the Bloomberg consensus estimates but watch what happens when we change these a little bit so Bloomberg thinks that revenues are actually going to collapse 7.2 percent next year for Ford and 17.1 percent for GM however they think that during these times Ford and GM will be able to grow their EV Biz and actually end up coming out in 2026 with some pretty big growth numbers here 47 25 and if you believe the Wall Street analysts who in consensus believe these targets four years out which is always very difficult to project four years out then yeah maybe that's a good deal maybe that means these companies are actually at a decent price right now with PEG ratios sitting around 0.6 to 0.7 not too far off of what Tesla's Trading for based on even the Bloomberg estimates which suggests 30 earnings growth next year 24 then 24 then 14.
however let's change things here a little bit and let's just assume that we take out 2026 let's say that's too far out and we don't want to look all the way out to 2026 and let's clean this up a little bit by just making this a two decimal item here there we go and now let's uh let's compare all of a sudden the peg ratios here now for the next three years at Ford you actually have a company that is fully it is a company that's not only not growing but it is losing revenues by an average of three percent per year which makes its PEG ratio negative it is so close to being a shrinking company kind of like Toyota sitting at that average of 1.6 growth crazy GM would grow at maybe one percent per year over the next three years which gives you a PEG ratio of five very very expensive whereas Tesla still sits here at .81 very very low and that's taking out 2026 which takes a lot of forward-looking now if you really believe in Tesla you might say wait a minute Kevin we don't actually expect the earnings growth to stall for Tesla in 2025.
we think Tesla is going to easily be able to grow revenues or earnings rather at 30 percent per year well then things just start looking very ridiculous for Tesla now you have a company that's growing at 30 percent relative to other companies that are growing on average of one percent of course Tesla deserves a substantially higher valuation because if you think about it if you use a 50 times earnings multiple and a company is growing earnings at 30 percent and you divide these numbers here by taking this little cell formula we just divide 50 divided by 30 and what do you get you get a PEG ratio of 1.6 well if you compare to the peg ratios that we currently see for various other companies on this chart 1.6 for Tesla in 2025 if it's growing earnings at 30 percent is not that unreasonable at all so the only way you could be a Tesla investor in my opinion is by believing in the growth story that the problems that are happening currently are problems related to Twitter they're problems related to Elon Musk they're problems related to temporary shutdowns in China and their problems related to short-term Short Selling short-term mindsets and tax loss harvesting it has nothing to do with the fundamental growth story of Tesla unless of course you believe it does which maybe you think you know what that's it nobody's going to buy Teslas anymore let's just say I finally have FSD and I could never see myself leaving the Tesla ecosystem after living FSD for a few days full self-driving is remarkable but remember we don't even necessarily have to put that into our projections we could use in my opinion relatively low projections like forty seven thousand dollars a vehicle 30 margins and still get to 585 but even if I drop these margins by a couple percent you know we'll drop them three percent let's go to 73 expense 27 margin we're still looking at an over 500 stock and this I think is why you have companies like Morgan Stanley saying look we are still overweight Tesla in fact the average price target for Tesla right now is over 250 on Wall Street we're sitting at the largest spread right now between price Target average Wall Street price targets and where the stock is actually trading for the stock could double just to hit the average Wall Street price targets and usually price targets plummet after stocks plummet and that is happening uh to some degree but price targets are not falling anywhere near as fast as the stock has been falling because the company actually has really dang good value at these levels in my opinion hashtag not personalized Financial advice for you even Morgan Stanley saying that they believe that two years of uh that the EV Market has gone through a sort of a Down rating because we've gone through the last years where demand has substantially exceeded Supply you had to wait many months to get a car but we're finally seeing that demand come into balance and Morgan Stanley thinks that Tesla can be a winner specifically because they are self-funded and not relying on external Capital not relying on a lot of debt like companies like Ford and GM are whereas Tesla is sitting on an over 18 billion dollar War chest and in just the last quarter alone had free cash flows knocking on the door of 3 billion dollars in just one quarter Morgan Stanley believes these are conditions that could create a company as a relative winner compared to other companies and this is even before considering the inflation reduction act now they do have a base Bull and Bear case which I'll provide you that right over here you can see their bull case brings Tesla to 10 million Vehicles produced by 2030 bringing to about a price Target at Morgan Stanley of 440 a base case of 7.7 million vehicles at 250 and then for you to hit this bear case in 2030 of 80 they don't even provide how many vehicles they think will be sold but you could simply divide uh the auto section here by roughly two and assume that basically Tesla stalls out and never produces more than 4 million Vehicles it becomes basically a niche luxury play and then it collapses so if you think Tesla is going to become an everyday car boy you're probably looking at the base to Bull case this is like the future new version of a Toyota right if you think Tesla is going to be a niche luxury automaker sure it would make sense that at some point they'll cap out a cap out at maybe three four million Vehicles a year and yeah you'd be probably looking at the base case from Morgan Stanley again I'm not trying to tell you what to think I'm just trying to say if you think that Tesla's going to grow earnings at 30 30 a year you take out most of the margin of safety that you have for Tesla stock that is Insurance semis FSD Revenue per vehicle you take all this stuff out and you really go conservative on a conservative basis at 30 percent earnings growth a 50pe multiple is very reasonable you're looking at a 500 plus dollar stock in three years now people here 50pe and they automatically shut down thinking oh my God 50 so high but again you have to compare to growth yes a 50pe ratio is not sustainable why because a 30 earnings growth rate per year is not sustainable forever maybe Tesla could actually grow at something like 45 in 2023 4 and 5.
then downgrade ho ho downgrade to 30 growth in 26.78 where you could easily have a 50pe ratio then maybe in 29 and 30 the things only growing at 20 and then what you're really doing is you're hoping that Tesla comes out with some substantially awesome new product like Robo taxis or Bots or whatever but those are decisions that you can make a few years down the road in my humble opinion so it's really important that when you consider earnings companies or or companies uh based on their earnings you consider them based on their earnings growth as well this is where also you have to look at companies that in my opinion are kind of sitting at crazy valuations right now but they're sitting at these valuations not because of fundamental bases but because of the fact that when the economy goes into recession people like to move their money into staple type stocks for example look at McDonald's the thing is down 1.29 percent this year that's it McDonald's folks is selling for 265 dollars per share it is expected to have earnings next year of 10.47 at 265.11 divided by 10 and 47 cents McDonald's is trading for 25.3 times earnings and do you realize what the growth rate for McDonald's is well over the next four years it's expected to be 2.7 5.5 5.4 and 6 percent well if I average that out and I give McDonald's a four and a half percent growth rate and I take a 25.3 times multiple what it's trading for now divided by 4.5 average growth rate McDonald's is selling for a PEG ratio of 5.6 it's ludicrous absolutely ludicrous what the company is trading for especially again when you look at this chart of Peg ratios why would you pick the high Peg ones when you could pick the low Peg ones to position yourself for 2023 I don't know I'm not here to tell you that we're definitely at a stock bottom we could continue to see capitulation and I would expect that we would see some fear before the next earnings report on the 23rd of January I think it's the 23rd of January uh Tesla earnings called earnings Q There we go we'll see but anyway uh yeah oh it's the 25th of January okay but anyway you have to ask yourself how do you want a position for next year do you want to be in the companies that have done really well in 2022 but are now substantially overvalued or is now the time where you go damn sure the stocks could go down a little bit more who knows maybe even a loved one but look at those valuations based especially on growth and consider this we haven't even talked about this yet inflation reduction Act is probably going to benefit the biggest EV player in America the most that's not going to be Lucid arivian who probably are knocking on the door of bankruptcy with how terrible their cash flows are although Lucid just bought some extra time by raising 1.5 billion dollars to looting shareholders more whatever it's probably not going to be Ford and GM though they're going to try although guess what they're doing because Ford for example loses money on their Ford maches they're likely in a recession to actually scale back EV production in my opinion other people believe differently but I believe that during a recession companies like Ford and GM are going to be forced to scale back on money losing products that actually means they're going to take a smaller percentage of the EV Pi relative to a company that's actually printing money during a recession like Tesla which means Tesla can actually cannibalize its competitors EV market share grow EV market share and take and hoard even more of the EV tax credit and then you start thinking about Network effects of Tesla the more people drive a Tesla the more people are like I gotta have a Tesla I showed Lauren okay my my father-in-law and my wife are Tesla Skeptics okay they're not big fans of Tesla they're they're they're they're not the greatest fans of Elon Musk uh you know I balance it out for them uh but anyway I took both of them on rides on FSD my father-in-law actually paid Tesla a compliment he didn't go as far as saying he wanted it but he did pay Tesla a compliment which that says volumes already but then Lauren is like oh my gosh I think I want a Tesla after seeing FSD her words don't mind so super exciting now again obviously the stock has gotten beat to crap and it's tough the way I personally look at it is the shares of Tesla I have I kind of see it as a free option on all of this amazing future for Tesla that hopefully comes to fruition hey and look remember hope is not an investing strategy but I believe in it right I believe that from a fundamental point of view this is not hope I believe this is like obvious but who knows could be wrong things could change maybe Tesla becomes that Niche auto manufacturer and then yeah p e ratios look high uh because if growth stops then that's when companies look expensive just look at McDonald's for example anyway Tesla for me is a free option on the future I do believe that for new money uh that I invest it makes a lot of sense to buy an actively managed ETF that has a large allocation to Tesla because at some point in the future when and if Tesla does double or triple or quadruple over the next three or four years which I know December sound ludicrous but to others will sound reasonable then I'd rather be in an actively managed ETF that can rebalance without passing on capital gains to me I think there's a great opportunity in that we will see you in the next one good luck
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