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is China about to kick our butt in artificial intelligence is Donald Trump right about what's going on in California with just sending more water down south or were there bigger problems that are now potentially the subject of lawsuits some just straight up nasty and is it possible that the United Kingdom is the canary of the global economy with the United Kingdom now on the edge of for session we've got a lot to talk about and we'll talk about meta and their artificial intelligence we've got a Daily Wealth update we've got dad Joker the day a lot to talk about including some real estate on today's meet Kevin report news that makes new money okay so first today we got S&P Global flash PMI data from both the United States and the United Kingdom in the United States our readings missed and that's probably why the stock market and it's slight read today it wasn't bad still obviously you know holding up at higher levels but what was inside of this composit that started making people a little bit dare I say nervous well one of the things that you saw inside of it was a Slowdown in services and composite business activity enough to pull the entire average with manufacturing down now just in English if you look at this particular chart here what you'll find is ah look at this slowdown here on the right it comes right after this enthusiasm that we saw after the election now why is that interesting why does any of this having to do with the election matter to anyone well because it's very eerily similar to what's going on in the United Kingdom except in the United Kingdom they had their election on July 4th of 201 24 which if you think about that that's 4 months before our election so in other words they had an election then it took about 4 months for data to start going crap so in other words things were excited leading up into the election and then afterwards and about four months later things went to poopy dupies and now we're at about 3 months in a row of just Contracting data in the United Kingdom consider this particular chart for a moment and then I want to show you some of the data that's going on here and you could really see it and start visualizing it uh so first let's start by looking on screen at this this right here shows you manufacturing and services employment in the United Kingdom peeking out right around the time of the election at the same time while input prices are surging got a pretty big lag behind in the prices that companies are able to charge that's a potential sign of weakening pricing power we've talked about that before we call it the smaller peeee right if nobody wants smaller PE but it basically means while your costs are going up you're restrained from being able to pass on the higher cost in full so you take it in the margin nobody wants smaller PP and then taking it in the margin it's not good uh but that's exactly what's happened here in the United Kingdom in fact look at this here's a another chart where we can overlay where the election bump was right here which is GDP and Flash pmis in the United Kingdom and how they've fallen down in the months since the election now why does that matter and what does this have to do with the United States a lot because we just had our election in November and enthusiasm has absolutely gone through the roof which some have said is starting to prop up manufacturing data potentially hiring and just PMI data but what happens when that starts weakening well to understand what happens when that starts weakening let's just consider what's going on in the United Kingdom and then we'll go to the United States so in the United Kingdom we have some numbers that just aren't that beautiful in fact the United Kingdom is on the edge of a recession we have an economy that is quote unquote per S&P Global stalled in 2025 with with risks tilted to the downside and an economy that narrowly avoided a recession they say that optimism has fallen new orders have fallen and job losses are now at the highest level since the 2009 financial crisis you could see these quotes directly on their website just go to the S&P Global website uh and you could look this up yourself in fact you'll end up finding something like this the flash PMI data for December indicate that the UK economy remained largely stalled continuing to avoid a recession by a narrow margin but with t with risk tilted to the downside the subdued business activity in January was accompanied by a sustained downbeat business optimism environment uh about prospects for the year ahead and further worsening of the demand environment as reflected by a steeper reduction in new orders not good not not good at all pushing uh uh unemploy now pushing employment lower again borrowing the job job cutting scene in the pandemic the rate of job losses signaled by PMI reports over the past two months is the strongest since the global financial crisis in 2009 so this is obviously not good this is pretty bad the United Kingdom is not seeing that election bump last now a lot of people in America say hey well the election in the United Kingdom is very different they don't have Trump they don't have the enthusiasm of what we're getting with make America great again and honest to goodness I hope that's exactly true we've seen a lot of new money announced to go into the United States uh bu we are going to see that money actually end up flowing into projects in the United States consider this for a moment the US chips act under Biden authorized $280 billion towards semi plants but as of October of 2024 pretty much all of those projects were delayed in environmental reviews now some of those environmental restrictions have been lifted as of October of 2024 but it's been like 2 years and there's been no progress things tend to move very very slowly with this building again hopefully things will be different under Trump but this is where we should think about Donald Trump for a moment and go okay well what happened in 2016 well here's an example during his first term Donald Trump worked with foxcon that Chinese manufacturing company that basically makes your iPhone or assembles it or whatever right designed in California Manu assembled in China right anyway foxcon promised to build a $10 billion Factory in Wisconsin which Donald Trump then touted as part of his plan to revive us manufacturing basically people are like Yay you know this is you know market watch put a good piece together on this and they're like hey this is Donald Trump going we got to a huge1 billion plant coming so what ended up happening well as of 2021 foxcon ended up only investing $672 million and instead of hiring 13,000 people they only hired $1,454 people now the company employs only about a thousand so it's even shrunk since then so this has a lot of people wondering okay wait a minute like that's cool we can announce all these projects and all this enus enthusiasm coming off of an election but at some point you're going to get to where you've got to look at the market and say hey we need this to actually turn into reality rather than just hope or expectations which the market is by no means short of expectations or hope right now consider the following Goldman Sachs which sector will perform the best in 2025 42% say technology up from 31% last year and which region will perform the best 58% say the United States up from 32% last year and 32% the year or 18% the year before that and 32% the year before that these are record high levels of enthusiasm for investing in the United States and investing in US technology but enthusiasm usually comes before reality and that the the spending we're doing has to actually materialize and if you look at the United Kingdom it's kind of a warning sign that that just because you have an enthusiastic election does not actually end up meaning you end up getting a strong economy we've now had the third consecutive month of contraction and Manufacturing in the United Kingdom their service sector only grew slightly consumer facing providers were were frankly the the weakest out of all of them which isn't great it just means your consumer sector is really suffering and growth momentum has quote been lost since the robust expansion of the summer of last year going into the elction now maybe corporate insiders could give us a little bit of a heads up of what to expect in America oh wait never mind per Bloomberg intelligence corporate insiders are buying at a ratio of.
22 to the level at which they're selling which means you basically have five sellers or $5 being sold for every $1 being bought by corporate insiders and then you look back at that first chart I showed you which was the S&P uh flash p Mi chart for the United States remember this one right here look at this yes it's a volatile measure but notice what you see a peak out after the election and all of a sudden a decline the question is will this decline just continue to be sort of a regular volatile movement here or are we going to get the plummet like what the United Kingdom is has gotten after their election I hope not because this deteriorating more would be very bad in fact this is how today's PMI went and again why markets were red today the composite read came in at just 52.4 we were expecting 55.6 Services missed at 52.8 we were expecting 56.5 now S&P is like oh okay well we've just gone to a moderate pace of expansion yeah that's cool but the numbers totally missed manufacturing beat but at 50.1 so like a hair into the expansion territory that's like very very basic and generic now there's also this argument that inflationary pressure is intensified on the input cost side much like in the United Kingdom but you're not seeing that full dose getting passed on to Consumers because like I've said you you really can't do that you just can't pull it off in this environment now what is interesting is that inventories fell at the steepest rate in the last 17 months now usually when inventories start falling like that you end up wondering okay why your business is not building up their inventories well S&P Global says it's because companies are just going through some of the existing product that they have so imagine you're a I don't know a manufacturer of uh I don't know porcelain bowls or porcelain cups okay so you've got you know racks of ink and racks of molds and racks of I don't know Clay or or porcelain or or whatever the stuff is made out of right mm great so you start using that up more but not rebuilding your inventory is sending a little bit of a signal that while businesses might be really optimistic right now and they're trying to use the stuff they have they're basically being a little bit more uh dare I say Frugal they're like you know before we go buy some more supplies why don't we just blow through what we have first and see how the economy goes for the first few months of the year and look I mean you can't really blame that there's a lot of optimism but it's a good idea to be frugal as well I think the optimism is actually quite insane right now uh and I'm not it's a bad thing again I want the economy to do well because it's great for startups I threw this page away CU I read it I'm like okay uh but maybe they're right this here has a um forecast of a probability of recession according to economic forecasters right cuz we trust the economic forecasters but anyway probability of recession from the economic forecasters here sits at just 22% in 2025 and I don't blame them because they're so much enthusiasm right now how could you possibly make the argument that there's going to be a recession this year hey you know maybe it would be stupid to make that argument you can see that there at the bottom but the point is nobody seems to be preparing for the potential downside with the exception of businesses which are starting to go uh let start using some of our supplies look at what happened to the United Kingdom okay they had election Euphoria and then it went to poopy doopy it's not good you know we were talking about that we're like oh pay attention to this you know we're not saying it's a problem today we're just saying you what what what the facts are and what the data is uh and then of course trying to provide uh you know some some tools for us to learn from this that's always the goal you know I spent hours every single day trying to put this together and I apologize by the way for being absent this morning uh Jack woke me up at 2:00 a.m.
vomiting he ended up vomiting like 7 to eight times just screwed up the whole morning and then I finally fell asleep again but then I didn't wake up until later so I'm like short on sleep but I also woke up late because it was just a disaster okay I'm almost done with the 32nd year of life so don't worry uh everything should be just fine by Tuesday when I'm 33 and I'm out of this odd year even year I'm out of 30 to okay anyway very interesting uh now too bad that's not it for the news today because now apparently we have to worry about the Chinese okay so the CEO of scale AI argues that deep seek which is the Chinese AI company has 50,000 illegal h100 chips and The Economist is arguing that chines llms are actually well they're not the best they're far cheaper to make than americ ameran llms and they're actually only considered to be about 3 months behind United States versions which is insane because they've recently argued that they're they've basically been able to get to Seventh Place in llms with just $56 million of spend this has a lot of people going oh my gosh the United States is spending like 56 billion do on uh on artificial intelligence over like a 3 to six month period and then we do that over and over and over again in fact this dude on X put together a great piece he his name is the short bear I don't know uh it sounds like he's a bear that is short rather than maybe a bear that is short in stature but anyway take a look at this us-based AI companies alone will have to generate about 600 billion dollars a year in Revenue to pay for their AI Hardware according to seoa the capex and R&D will likely be accepted to remain competitive given the risk of not being involved in the space like meta announcing today oh we're going to invest up to $65 billion up from the 51 we promised earlier on more capex well remember what happened the last time meta did this the last time meta did this they was on the metaverse and they were blowing so much money on the metaverse until they got punished and their stock went down to the $90 range which was crazy now oh no meta spending more money on AI we like AI stock goes up to all-time Highs but where's the ROI and that's what a lot of investors are kind of like I don't know but if the Chinese can create a better product than we can maybe we need to be nervous in fact The Economist argues that China already has the reasoning style AI like uh open AI has the 01 product which basically just takes the answer and throws it back into the machine and almost it's almost as if it talks to itself it's just sort of like emulating human reason like okay I think this is the answer now let me read it again do I agree that that is the answer H well I could add a little more context to this whatever right okay cool so China's already doing that and so the economist fears that China could actually end up with some sort of super intelligence breakthrough and end up giving China some kind of massive lead over the United States and at that point do we really have to be worried about freaking Tik Tok The Economist is freaking out about it they're like y'all y'all worried about Tick Tock yall realize what we're up against here what we're actually up against this is crazy anyway uh this this gets interesting but what'll also get really interesting is this uh uh note that's circulating from meta now I don't have a way of verifying this so that this could be totally false uh but uh it's it is very very interesting and I'm excited to talk more about it in the course member lectures I'm going to pull it up in just a second uh I still have not gotten around to updating the video on the meet Kevin website uh pitching how great the trumponomics course is because you know a lot of content has already released new content is in production uh we we the the price of the course will probably be about double within the next six months as as actual like more Trump content comes out we've got a lot of trump content in there already filmed at the end of last year but if you want to join it go to meet Kevin check it out t course member live this morning we're starting a trading Channel with options Trading alerts uh all of that is starting uh February 1st uh and so we'll have options Trading alerts as well as uh those will be bought options sold options uh stocks you name it so it's it's it's going to be really fun uh we've got some really cool things coming so buckle up for that I just need to get the marketing video done but by the time I do I feel like I should raise the price you know it's like when marketing is perfect then we're going to have a higher price anyway let's get into that um that meta letter so take this out here it started so this is uh looks like it's some sort of meta post somewhere uh it started with deep seek version 3 which rendered the Llama 4 from Facebook from meta already behind in benchmarks adding insult to injury was the unknown Chinese company with $5.5 million of a training budget Engineers are moving frantically to dissect uh deep seek and copy anything and everything we can learn from it I'm not even exaggerating management is worrying about just ifying the massive cost of gen aai how would they face leadership when every single leader of geni is making more than is is making more than what it cost to train deep seek entirely in other words like the CEOs are making more money than what deep seek took to train their entire Ai and then we have dozens of such leaders oopsies deep seek R1 made him even more scared I can't reveal confidential information but it'll soon be public anyway uh it should have been an engineering focused small organization but a bunch of people want to join the impact group and artificially inflate hiring in the org everybody loses okay so I think what's happening here is something that I've been warning about probably for about a year now which is eventually these these things are just going to become commoditized like there's nobody like everybody's going to have this on their phone on their computer or whatever it's like cool you have a really good encyclopedia great absolutely fantastic you've got an encyclopedia speaking of Encyclopedia this is just like convenient timing look uh look who's here with Gavin gruesome people from the area I appreciate the governor coming out and meeting me Kevin oh you very much and uh we'll be talking a little bit we want to get it fixed we want to get the problem fixed and there'll be some ways but this is just awkward anyway so such a distraction Kevin was like gez that's almost as distracting as you pitching your freaking coupon code sorry guys it's just like I actually you know I've been doing course member live streams since like 2017 and I actually think they're really good like we go into some really good fundamental analysis and thought and uh and sometimes they contribute to the trade alerts and the options alerts uh and uh and there's some really good stuff there so really excited about it you pay once you get lifetime access to them got to raise the price we're probably going to do a birthday coupon code at a higher price so anyway I give you a heads up uh you can get in before then email us if you have questions or want to bundle up at staff atme kevin.com okay so this uh this llm fear is uh obviously a big deal a lot of people are freaking out about this but uh I don't think it's very well known that these are going to be Commodities you know every computer every iPad every phone every Everything basically your car or whatever everybody's going to have a really glorious encyclopedia okay congratulations what good does that do you well it's the same good that it's been doing since the beginning of 2023 okay cool what's next oh they're going to be agents okay yeah sure maybe they can go through a checklist that's not really predictive it's just a bot going through a checklist is that really revolutionary is that justify you know hundreds you know 500 billion dollars of money going into just basically supporting open AI I don't think so but you know whatever so uh as far as the uh uh you know Stargate drama Oracle still doing well you know there's still arm enthusiasm but people also say that you might get this sort of Promise of $500 billion over the next 5 years and it ends up being a fraction of that in actual spending speaking of uh actual spending Marco Rubio has ordered a halt to virtually all existing foreign aid programs pending a review that each dollar spent actually benefits the United States they say every dollar we spend every program we fund and every policy we pursue must be justified with the answer to three simple questions does it make America safer does it make America stronger and does it make America more prosperous damn that was hot I freaking love that I love that almost as much as this next sponsor which it's all paragraphed down below so if you don't care about the 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on Super Bowl Sunday so uh this is a contest you're automatically entered into once you activate your USD cash account enable derivatives trading contracts right and trade at least one sports contract before 2: a.m. on Super Bowl Sunday check it out via my link down below now the Marco Ruby o uh Aid restriction does exempt Israel Egypt and foreign aid uh also there are now reports that multiple agencies are kind of freaking out a little bit because of the hiring freeze that's going on in America uh especially amongst well mostly amongst the federal government which makes you wonder about the PMI data we were talking about earlier but the hiring freezes that are set are expected to last for 90 days except for the Internal Revenue Service they're actually going to have to get treasury permission to hire again and the FDA is unsure if they're currently allowed to even issue critical safety alerts Health agencies are apparently not communicating uh via external Communications because and the transportation system is shutting down for new projects mostly because everybody's trying to calibrate around like what are we allowed to do what are we allowed to say things are a little bit up in the air right now but honestly that does happen every presidential Administration so maybe it's not that big of a deal uh and one thing that is interesting is Donald Trump's been busy look at this executive orders in the first 100 days Donald Trump has exploded he's taking the record for Obama Trump one and Biden I mean he's almost done as many executive orders in the first like four days as he did in the first 100 days the last time he was President crazy amount of executive orders some people say it's just designed to sort of like signal you know be a messaging signal other people say it's designed to overwhelm the courts I don't know but what I do know is we just at the lowest level of home sales since 1995 thanks to high mortgage rates and everyone's basically like huh this doesn't feel good for the real estate market although prices have been holding up uh the only Market that really seems to be booming after the Trump election is the luxury Market ah kind of crazy in fact house Haack had uh an option on a uh a luxury deal uh that you know we'll end up Runing out for a good cap rate but had a suspect deal uh build and uh had the option on it before the election and after the election like luxury markets across the United States have just been selling out at like record prices because everybody's like yes Trump won and they're spend spend spending it's crazy so house I think got a house probably got like a multi-million dollar wedge there substantial multi-million dollar wedge it's kind of cool uh but anyway uh Donald Trump uh is as you saw in California today uh a lot of uh drama going around around or circulating around Donald Trump's saying that uh too much uh water is just running off California and evaporating Donald Trump says the water is coming from Canada and it's just getting diverted to the ocean I think he kind of made an oopsy there given that Canada is not directly above California we got a couple States in between but I think what he's referring to is the fact that if you just look at our Sierra Nevada mountain range in California 4.9 to 6.5 trillion gallons of water run out into the ocean every single year from the Sierra Sierra Nevada mountain range now yes some of the water that that flows down into the Sacramento sanen Delta you know where the Delta smelt are and house sa owns property around there some of that water ends up getting pumped down to the South to fill up reservoirs but our reservoirs were decently filled up in SoCal with the exception of probably the most important one the Sanz Reservoir and that's where we start getting into some of the real big problems that we have the big problems are California is in a place where you're just not actually handling basic need infrastructure projects the way you should and it's absolutely embarrassing that we have a California government that is so inept and incompetent it's kind of dare I say disgraceful but the way to look at it is the LA Times put together a fantastic piece and what they basically said is hey look California is in a situation where they could have spent $57 million fighting and actually uh upgrading infrastructure in Los Angeles except what did they do instead they didn't and because they didn't because they were caught up in other priorities or whatever else California ended up now suffering what's going to end up costing 50 plus billion dollar these are some pretty good pieces I I I'll show you a few quotes of them right here I think they're actually very incredible so let's see here there's also a lawsuit going on uh now from some of the celebrities who have just absolutely lost their homes and their livelihoods or at least the you know their setups it's really just embarrassing what's happened in California but anyway uh let's uh let's expand this here so you can see this a little easier here here's a la lawsuit Spencer Pratt and Heidi monok suing LAPD uh sorry La DWP that's the city of Los Angeles and the Department of Water and Power but some of the charts that I wanted to show you right here red tape budget shortfalls and government in action repeatedly styed plans for water system improvements in parts of Malibu and toena Canyon high priority items including those that were listed as high priority fire related items were compelling City officials to act since 2013 and they just weren't done there were plans to build new collections for from water systems or from reservoirs or to fix the San yanz uh uh water base the reservoir and guess what you just never got it done and this is really what's embarrassing because you look at California it's like for a state that taxes this much how do you fail so badly at at actually maintaining your basic infrastructure uh in Los Angeles so the LA Times I'll show you a little bit more from this piece because I just I I think it's so fascinating uh but the LA Times Really says that uh you could have spent maybe 7 years from 2013 actually going through piece by piece bre fixing leaky pipes leaky pumps and repairing the issues that ultimately contributed to this fire getting out of control more fire staff more fire protection every element uh that was basically screwed for this fire but it wasn't done because the politicians really just failed Californians uh and I highly blame the politicians because ultimately they're the ones that we put in charge of spending on our behalf to make sure that we're safe now the politicians end up going as far as trying to blame uh individuals who reside in like Malibu or other parts of California and what they're trying to do is they're essentially saying hey uh hey hey whoa whoa uh you know yall complain that you didn't want higher water prices so because you didn't want higher water prices um uh you know we we didn't end up doing any of those infrastructure projects we talked about and this is where people are like what's your freaking problem like maybe if y'all could tell us hey like we need to upgrade our fire systems because excuse me our water systems are absolutely failing well then maybe people might vote a little differently I kid you not you can see it here look at this a lack of progress on many of the plans has been driven apart by residents opposition to potential increases to their water rates this is literally finger pointing by the politicians saying oh well people in Malibu are not pro development bro maybe they're not pro development because the city's Planning Commission takes forever to actually approve projects I mean you try to get a project to prove over there look at this the estimated cost for fir flow needs was just $57 million in construction would have taken 7 years they would built new tanks fixed the aging and severely severely deteriorated other tanks or systems or whatever and what now we're spending 1,000x that billions more it's insane I it's just mindblowing to me the the incompetence uh these are literally politicians who on their desks have hey here's serious problems these serious problems could get out of hand and could cause billions of dollars and fire damage hey maybe if you all fix it you won't end up with those problems what do you think about fixing it oh yeah no not interested oops I don't get it I don't I just don't get it now then then you get this drama about the Delta smelt you know I'm I'm a big believer that if there's so much drama about certain species why aren't we trying to build new habitats for those species like humans are here we build things so yes Wildlife is going to move and get relocated but that doesn't mean they have to go extinct I'm sure we could find a new home for the Delta smelt I don't know it sounds a little ludicrous to me but then again you know it also sounds ludicrous to me that it takes 30 minutes for firefighters to respond to a burn SCAR Where you know there's potentially still smoldering fire after the uh fire at the um uh set off by fireworks above the Palisades and it takes 30 minutes for firefighters to respond to it on the morning of the Palisades fire when it reignites you see that to me is is is ludicrous I mean politicians should be getting fired for this it's bad Donald Trump suggested with Hannity that uh maybe what we need to do is uh get rid of FEMA entirely and just have States solve their own problems and uh the federal government is willing to contribute to uh uh to the funding for these but uh ultimately States might be able to establish how to solve their problems themselves in the best manner uh you've apparently now also on sort of some micro news here got X so Ela mus x uh having about $3 billion of debt go up for sale at a discount of 90 to 95 cents on the dollar so this is Bank held debt that X OES and uh there's some hope that they can actually sell this debt at just a 5 to 10cent Discount now because there's enthusiasm around musk and given his ties to Trump maybe this is opportune for people to buy into this debt but it's worth noting that this month Elon Musk mentioned hey look we're growing in influence and power x is doing great but our finances are still problematic oops anyway uh American Express spent a little bit more money on uh their marketing up 31% year-over-year that led the stock to actually fall after earnings even though growth was still moving along uh we do have to end up hitting now our dad joke and Daily Wealth so let's hit it uh let's first hit the dad joke uh do you stir your coffee with your right hand well if you do you should consider using a spoon next time yeah I know not funny so Daily Wealth H well today what I'd like to talk about is it is so great when you have finally completed chaos and I just want you to try it we've talked about Chaos Theory so many times before go go start with one drawer just open up like one drawer of your desk right now or your do your side dresser a drawer in your car or your center console or closet or whatever dump it all out just reorganize that one drawer and the feeling you get when you're done every time you go open that drawer the next time it's sort of like what we've got in the office now which is so exciting it's it's like 96 97% complete now every time I come in there's like this new enthusiasm to work or to use the functions of why you had that drawer so to speak in the first place but I want you to take a moment to think how can I bask in the joy of the chaos theory that I've performed and the successes that have come out of it so um that's the uh tip for today anyway thank you so much for watching folk and start using that spoon go to meet kevin.com by the way get in before we uh bump those prices up there on the tromics group I got to get that new marketing video up been too busy all right folks we'll see you soon bye
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